Will the Vikings be interested in the Gophers' top prospects?

The Vikings passed on two top players from the U last year, will they do so again?

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A note from Matthew Coller:

Hey everyone — Sam Ekstrom is off this week with a big life event happening so Intern Paul (who is no longer an intern and is reporting for the Pioneer Press these days) is filling in.

Before we get into Paul’s very good article, I wanted to acknowledge the Jeff Gladney news. We’ll get into it more as details emerge and decisions are made by the Vikings and the NFL on his status. For now, here’s a tweet thread from the reporter who broke the news. It has the disturbing details of accusations against Gladney.

J.D. Miles @jdmiles11

#Breaking I’ve learned from sources that #MinnesotaVikings Cornerback Jeff Gladney has turned himself into the Dallas County Jail after the #NFL player posted a $10,000 bond on a charge 3rd degree felony family violence assault.

OK here’s Paul’s dive into whether the Minnesota players should be on the Vikings’ radar….

Will the Vikings be interested in the Gophers' top prospects?

By Paul Hodowanic

Nothing gets Minnesota sports fans more excited than a hometown success story. 

In just the last week we’ve seen Hopkins native Paige Bueckers guide UCONN to the Final Four, former Minnehaha Academy star Jalen Suggs hit a game-winner to send Gonzaga to the national championship and University of Minnesota wrestler Gable Steveson qualify for the Olympics. 

In Vikings land, it takes just about five minutes into any Sunday broadcast to find out where a certain star wide receiver went to college (feel free to direct some blame for the nauseating amount of references this gets towards Coller, who claims he wrote the first “Thielen is from Minnesota” story).

Leading up to the 2020 NFL Draft, there was a legitimate opportunity, and clamoring from fans, for the Vikings to draft hometown talents Antoine Winfield Jr. and Tyler Johnson. 

Much to the chagrin of many in the state, neither of those players were drafted by the Vikings. Turns out those fans were justified. As rookies, both Winfield and Johnson made key plays and down the stretch to help the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the Super Bowl.

With the 2021 draft approaching, the opportunity is once again there for the Vikings to draft a pair of highly touted Gophers — wide receiver Rashod Bateman and defensive back Benjamin St. Juste — who fit Vikings needs. 

So let’s dive into whether it would be smart for the Vikings to draft Bateman and St. Juste and what those selections would signal about Minnesota’s future. 

The case for picking the Gophers’ prospects

Finally a viable third option. 

Not since Jarius Wright have the Vikings had a consistent third wide receiver. 

In 2014 and 2015, Wright caught 76 passes for 1030 yards, with 50 of those catches resulting in a first down. His run as the Vikings’ go-to safety blanket continued in 2017 despite a limited role, with 13 of his 18 catches coming on third down. Wright also made several critical catches in the Minneapolis Miracle game, one that set up the opening touchdown of the game and a second that led to a Kai Forbath field goal.  

Since then, the Vikings have tried to fill the hole with bargain bin free agents like Kendall Wright and Aldrick Robinson, or late round/undrafted fliers like Olabisi Johnson and Chad Beebe, and have been left disappointed. Meanwhile, Wright left in free agency after the 2017 season and caught 71 passes in two seasons with the Carolina Panthers. 

Despite the Vikings’ absence of care towards their third wide receiver, the spot is only becoming more valuable. According to a recent study done by Eric Eager of Pro Football Focus, the performance of a team’s third-highest-graded wide receiver during the playoffs correlated with EPA at a higher rate than both the second-highest and highest-graded receivers.

While we don’t know what Bateman will become in the NFL, adding the Gophers star would be the biggest infusion of talent into that third wide receiver role since Cordarrelle Patterson’s rookie season in 2013. 

In 2019 at Minnesota, alongside Johnson, Bateman had a PFF grade of 87.1 and caught 60 passes for 1,219 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 20.3 yards per catch. 

“[Bateman] might be the most well-rounded wide receiver in this class,” said Chris Trapasso, NFL draft analyst for CBS Sports on the Purple Insider podcast. “[He] is deceptively fast. He’s good after the catch. He wins in contested catch situations. He runs good routes… He’s the jack of all trades, master of none in this class.”

Bateman, measured at 6-foot-⅜ and 190 pounds, took 90% of snaps in his first two years from the outside, but spent over 50% of time in the slot in 2020, an effort to get him more schemed touches. He was still effective, but PFF grade dropped to 81.1. 

At Minnesota’s pro day last week, Bateman discussed his usage. He also ran a 4.39-second 40 time. 

“At the end of the day they’re both receivers,” he said. “Things I learned outside I take over to the slot. Things I learned in the slot I take over to the outside. The only difference was I just didn’t have as many reps at it as I should or I wish I had. I’m comfortable playing both positions and I look forward to it when the time comes.”

Draft experts believe Bateman’s most likely position is as a true “X” receiver, but the former four-star recruit from Tifton, Ga., clearly is open to the idea of playing in the slot. That versatility could help in the Vikings’ system, which already has two receivers in Jefferson and Thielen that can line up in the slot or on the outside. 

It would also establish a core of wide receivers for the considerable future. Drafting Bateman would lock up a trio of talented wide receivers for the next four years in Minnesota and provide Cousins, or whoever the long-term quarterback is, some continuity. Both Thielen and Jefferson’s deals don’t expire until after the 2024 season.

Another intriguing cornerback 

Admittedly this exercise was mainly to discuss Bateman’s potential and the need for a third wide receiver but St. Juste isn’t a throw away prospect. 

Scouring through several draft boards, St. Juste fits firmly in the late day two/early day three conversation. At 6-foot-3, 200 pounds, St. Juste possesses ideal size and length for an outside corner. 

Here’s the breakdown of St. Juste by NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein: 

Intriguing cornerback with impressive measurables and a competitive spirit that shines through at the catch point and in run support…. St-Juste is behind in terms of his feel and instincts. His route recognition is below average and his change of direction in coverage can be clunky, but those areas can improve with more experiences and technique work. He's a brute at the catch point, tilting contested catches in his favor, and he has some excellent tape as a tackler who finishes what he starts with form and strength. Finding the proper scheme fit will be important and a move to safety is a possibility. A team could see a noticeable improvement in his play within the first two years, but he's a developmental prospect with good upside at this juncture.

With the additions of Patrick Peterson, Mackenzie Alexander, and Xavier Woods, St. Juste would have the luxury of some time to learn that Jeff Gladney and Cameron Dantzler didn’t last year. 

St. Juste wouldn’t serve simply as a depth piece. All of those aforementioned free agent signings are on one-year prove-it deals. Add in the possible departure of Mike Hughes next offseason, the Vikings clearly have a long-term need at defensive back. 

With Gladney’s future in the NFL now in doubt after he turned himself in to the Dallas County Jail on third degree felony assault Monday, cornerback may be a need for the Vikings this upcoming season. 

A realistic trade down opportunity

There are still sizable questions marks for who starts at both guard spots, left tackle, and defensive end. Not to mention depth is needed at other positions. 

In a class that could feature some diamond-in-the-rough type players who slip on draft night because they opted out of the college season, the Vikings’ lack of a second round pick is glaring.

While Bateman could certainly be in play at 14, it seems likely that a trade back into the early 20’s could still net the Gophers star. Doing so could allow the Vikings to pick up a second-round pick and potentially more. The Vikings also have more than enough late-round picks to help them get back into the middle part of the draft. 

In a PFF mock draft simulator attempt aiming to grab the two Gophers, I ended up with these results: 

Not only would this give the Vikings another supremely talented wide receiver in Bateman, it opens the door for them to address both the offensive and defensive lines in the middle rounds. 

If the consensus top-two offensive tackles, Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater, are off the board for the Vikings selection at 14, a trade back could make sense. It fits general manager Rick Spielman’s track record and affinity for accumulating picks.  

Why it might not happen

The need for a third wide receiver isn’t new. It’s been a sore thumb for the last two seasons, but the Vikings have been content to roll with two studs and not much behind them. With holes to fill on the offensive and defensive lines, wide receiver is likely not on the top of Zimmer and Spielman’s to-do list. 

Investing in a wide receiver would also signal a shift in offensive philosophy that Mike Zimmer and Co. have been unwilling to make. Other than the brief stint with John DeFillipo as offensive coordinator in 2018, the Vikings have overwhelmingly run 12 (two tight ends) and 21 personnel (two running backs), prioritizing running the ball with Dalvin Cook. 

Last season, the Vikings ran 11 personnel (three receivers) on just 29 percent of their snaps, by far the lowest in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Stats. The NFL average was 60 percent. By comparison the Vikings ran either 12 or 21 personnel on 48 percent of snaps. The NFL average for that was 27 percent. 

Drafting Bateman would clearly signal the team wants to become more pass-heavy and is interested in expanding away from its current formula. Nothing we’ve heard or seen in recent months would suggest that’s coming. 

And if that shift in scheme is not coming, drafting Bateman doesn’t make as much sense. The value of spending a first-round pick on a wide receiver is severely diminished if they won’t see the field half the time. 

As for St. Juste, the Vikings have invested significant capital this offseason to improve the defensive backfield. If the Vikings don’t trade into the second round, using a third-round pick on a cornerback might be a bit rich given their current lack of a pass rush and holes along the offensive line. 

Still, if the Vikings did elect to draft either Gopher, they wouldn’t be doing so simply because of the Minnesota connection. Both players have a chance to become quality NFL contributors. The Vikings could use more of those.

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