Why Kyler Murray is the right answer for the Vikings
The Cardinals are reportedly expected to cut Murray
By Matthew Coller
Let’s get one thing out of the way first: If the Minnesota Vikings sign Kyler Murray, it will be for the league minimum of $1.3 million because the Arizona Cardinals will have to foot the bill due to his remaining guaranteed dollars, similar to what happened with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Russell Wilson a few years ago. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport confirmed that this will be the case on Saturday.
From a financial perspective, the Vikings couldn’t ask for a better fit considering their cap issues and the fact that acting GM Rob Brzezinski made it clear at the NFL Combine that the team does not want to sell the future down the river just to win in 2026. There are other QBs in similar situations like Geno Smith, Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa.
Upon a deeper dive, Murray appears to be the best option for the Vikings as Kevin O’Connell looks to get the offense back on track following a brutal 2025 season.
The case for Murray begins with the numbers…
Over multiple seasons of his career, Murray has clearly been a top-15 NFL quarterback.
Between 2020 and 2024, the former No. 1 overall pick of the Cardinals created the 8th most Approximate Value by Pro-Football Reference’s WAR-like metric. That would factor in Murray’s passing and rushing impact. The quarterbacks ahead of him are Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. Matthew Stafford is tied with Murray.
The soon-to-be former Card has two seasons that are higher in Approximate Value than any of Kirk Cousins’ seasons in Minnesota.
In his three full seasons during that span, Murray ranked 12th (2020), 7th (2021) and 12th (2024) by Pro Football Focus’s grading system in terms of overall grade.
In those years, Arizona’s offense ranked 12th, 11th and 13th in scoring.
Even if we didn’t dive any deeper, those stats are compelling. Had the Vikings been able to muster the 12th best offense in the NFL last season, they may have had an argument as one of the most dangerous teams heading into the postseason because of their dominant defense.
Why are Murray’s numbers solid? Accuracy, for starters. Per Pro-Football Reference, he has the 8th best “on-target” percentage and the third best “bad throw” percentage in the NFL since 2020. He is 6th in completion percentage.
In 2024, Murray had the 8th best clean pocket PFF grade with 21 Big-Time Throws to just 3 Turnover-Worthy plays and a 106.5 passer rating.
For a running quarterback, he surprisingly does not make huge mistakes at an alarming rate. His sack percentage is 13th (of 35) QBs with at least 1,000 pass attempts since 2020 and his interception rate is also 13th.
In general, Murray has been a hot-and-cold QB through his career but overall he ranks 12th in “Success Rate” between 2020 and 2024.
Murray’s rushing impact cannot be understated. He has the third most touchdowns rushing in the NFL between 2020-2024 and is fourth in yards behind Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts.
He has the fourth best success rate in that time span when running and averaged 7.3 yards per rushing attempt in 2024.
Even with some tough seasons in terms of supporting cast and an ACL tear mixed in, the overall data paints Murray an above average QB between 2020 and 2024.
At different times during that span, the NFL thought so too.
Mike Sando’s “Quarterback Tiers” article comes out every year citing NFL coaches and executives’ rankings. In 2021, Murray was ranked 12th. In 2022, he was ranked 13th. Heading into 2025, he was 15th.
Arizona owes its 14-22 record in Murray’s last 36 starts to its defense (-110.4 EPA), not its offense (+41.6 EPA) or its special teams (+0.8 EPA, which is near average).
“I think he grew a lot last year,” a defensive coordinator said. “He was a problem for sure when we played him. He cut down turnovers, used his legs a lot more, came into his own after the injury.”
So we can establish that both statistically and in the eyes of NFL evaluators, Murray is an above average QB.
What about the fit?
With a smaller quarterback who tends to scramble, it’s natural to wonder if he will be able to fit in an offense that thrived the most with pocket QBs Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold.
The interesting thing about Cousins and Darnold is that they played within Kevin O’Connell’s system quite differently.
In 2023, Cousins ranked 39th in the percentage of passes that traveled at least 20 yards through the air. The following season, Darnold produced more yards on 20+ yard throws than any other QB in the NFL.
Murray’s passing leans more toward Cousins in this way. While he has plenty of arm talent, he does not have the rocket launcher that’s attached to the right side of Darnold’s body. He ranked as the 11th best PFF intermediate passer (10-19 yards through the air) in 2024.
Early in Murray’s career, he stood in the shotgun for most of his snaps and ran a lot of RPOs and quick screens but that wasn’t as much the case under Drew Petzing in 2024. He ran 121 under-center snaps with a 99.7 QB rating and ranked 8th in play-action percentage.
In 2024, Darnold was under center on 155 attempts and ranked 11th in play-action percentage.
One concern about Murray is his ability to throw the ball over the middle of the field. While his volume of passing in the intermediate areas was not high, he went 30-for-41 with an 87.8 passing grade on intermediate throws over the middle. In 2024, Darnold had 66 intermediate throws over the middle. In the short areas, Murray completed 85% of throws over the middle.
Would he need to throw in the middle of the field more often? Yes. Is it impossible for him to do so? No.
The key for the Vikings offense, regardless of target area, is Justin Jefferson.
Last year, JJ McCarthy struggled mightily to find Jefferson, which proved very costly to the Vikings passing attack.
When Murray had a receiver of similar caliber in DeAndre Hopkins, he completed 71% of passes in his direction and registered a 109.5 QB rating throwing to his WR1.
The Vikings also made a huge investment in tight end TJ Hockenson that did not pay off last year as McCarthy struggled to find him. In Arizona, Murray completed 76% of throws to TE Trey McBride at 7.8 yards per attempt with a 94.7 QB rating.
What do we get when we add up all the information on Murray? He’s the best quarterback (likely) available in this year’s market.
If there are no other politics involved like the desire to give McCarthy a chance to still become the Vikings franchise QB, then Murray’s top-end performance would give the Vikings the best chance to compete in the NFL North and under the perfect circumstances potentially be dangerous in the postseason.
But that doesn’t mean he’s anywhere near perfect. There are risks involved with Murray as well.
That conversation begins with inconsistency.
From a year-to-year perspective, he produced a 2021 season in which he had an NFL-best 41 Big-Time Throws, second to only Tom Brady. He was fourth that year in Turnover-Worthy Play percentage as well. The following year, 2022, he ranked 34th in BTT% and 28th in TWP%. You can see from his career PFF grades that he’s bounced between a top-10(ish) QB to a replacement-level starter.
From a game-to-game perspective, the highs and lows probably frustrated the Cardinals greatly when he was their QB1. This is 2024:
Talk about a roller coaster.
Why is he so inconsistent?
One reason might be that his great performances rely on pulling rabbits out of hats. Because he is an undersized playmaker, he often has to do something spectacular with his legs or make throws on the run that are wow-inducing but very hard to repeat week after week.
The other theory is that he’s all over the map when under pressure. His quarterback ratings under pressure from 2020 through 2024 are 64.8 (20th), 78.3 (8th), 33.6 (39th), 84.0 (7th), 49.9 (40th).
That’s crazy. What version are you getting? How can you control it as a team?
Basically, Murray’s team would have to try to mitigate the number of times where Murray was trying to play hero under duress. That’s exactly what Drew Petzing did in 2024 as he was only pressured 29% of the time, 10th lowest in the NFL.
There’s also the elephant in the room about Murray’s personality. You won’t find much in terms of concrete evidence that he’s problematic, just a lot of insinuation and inuendo.
For example, in Sando’s 2025 QB Tiers piece, he quoted a GM as saying:
"I still don't trust him. He has [second tier] talent but is still a 3 to me. Is he committed to it? He always tends to tail off as the season goes on."
By the individual numbers, Murray’s performance as the season goes along doesn’t change much. In games 1-4 of the year, his QB rating is 91.8 for his career and in games 13 through the end of the season it’s 90.0. But the win-loss record is quite different with Murray going 24-20-1 in the first eight games and 14-28 after that.
It might depend on how much you believe that was Murray’s fault. Arizona never had a top 10 defense but the two years that they ranked 11th and 12th were his best win-loss years.
It’s safe to say that Murray comes along with warts and risks.
The Vikings are in a situation where warts and risks come with every single option. Geno Smith? Oh, the guy who leads the NFL over the last two seasons in interceptions and sacks? Kirk Cousins? The torn Achilles QB? Malik Willis is going to earn $30 million based on 100 passes? Aaron Rodgers? Achilles. Daniel Jones? Achilles.
The question they should be asking is: Who is capable of the absolute best performance possible? If every single thing went their way, which quarterback could play the best football out of anyone on the list? Considering recent performance, talent, playmaking and arm talent, the answer is Murray.
Unless the Vikings want a quarterback that McCarthy could potentially beat out, he gives them that lottery ticket — the Jeff George/Sam Darnold type that has worked to get this franchise into serious contention in the past.