What does the decision to stick with Dobbs tell us about the Vikings present and future?

Kevin O'Connell and Josh Dobbs talked about getting on the same page going forward

Photo courtesy USA Today

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By Matthew Coller

EAGAN — Following a brutal loss to the Chicago Bears in which quarterback Josh Dobbs threw four interceptions, head coach Kevin O’Connell made it clear that he was not going to commit to Dobbs going forward before taking some time to think about it. That wasn’t just frustration in the moment. During his Tuesday press conference following the 12-10 loss at US Bank Stadium, O’Connell reiterated that he would be spending the bye week looking at whether he should keep Dobbs under center or make a change to veteran Nick Mullens or rookie Jaren Hall.

Eight days later, O’Connell stood at the podium inside TCO Performance Center and explained how he made the decision to stick with Dobbs. He went through all of Dobbs’ film during the break, including when he was in Arizona, and kept asking himself the question: “what helps him be the best version of himself?”

“What kind of came out in that study, some real clear things that I think we can help him with, fundamentally, technique-wise,” O’Connell said.

The head coach didn’t just watch film on his own. Following the game, Dobbs texted O’Connell and asked if they could get together and go through the tape. O’Connell obliged and they stayed in communication through the install of the offense sharing ideas. O’Connell wants to better understand what is going to make Dobbs most comfortable and his quarterback wants to feel like he gets the deeper intent of the plays — something that’s hard to fully grasp when learning on the fly.

“You can hear a play call and have your interpretation of the call but it’s different when you’re game-planning a play for a specific look, and if you’re not getting that look,” Dobbs explained. “‘Hey, what do I want to do so the ball’s out of my hand quickly? If I get that look, OK, why did we call this play? Now we get the look; how are we trying to attack it?’ You can survive, but you’re not going to play the most efficient version of football out there. Probably be holding the ball a couple extra hitches, letting the rush affect the game.”

Opposing teams’ rushes have been getting to Dobbs over the past few weeks. Per PFF he’s been pressured on 40% of drop-backs since arriving and 25% of his pressures have come because he has held onto the ball too long or scrambled into pressure, fourth most in the NFL since he took over starting in Week 9. In eight games with the Cardinals Dobbs was only responsible for 9.5% of his pressure, which suggests that the adjustments to the offense have been at the root of troubles getting rid of the ball on time.

O’Connell also acknowledged that may have fallen into some modes that happen to everyone who loves football: Overreacting to what we just saw and blaming the quarterback too much. The performance against Chicago was so ugly that it was easy to forget that Dobbs had played well in his first three games as a Viking and that his poor showing against the Bears was also fueled by some missteps in blocking and receiving as well.

“There's a lot of plays from the last couple games where you look at it and there's a lot more minuses on the grade sheet than just the quarterback position on some critical plays, and that's what I've challenged our guys, ‘let's see how many plays we can have a clean sheet on and ultimately see what that does for our production on offense,” O’Connell said.

So what does it mean that O’Connell turned back to Dobbs?

There are layers to that answer, starting with the process that O’Connell undertook in order to make the decision. On the surface it seems like it was simply the most logical decision. Dobbs has the most physical talent and played well enough to win three of four games so it wouldn’t make much sense to toss him to the bench in hopes that Mullens, who hasn’t started a game since 2021, could do better. And asking Hall to save the season is probably too much for a rookie.

But the deeper analysis should be about the process. After a miserable showing, the response was to search for answers together. When the Vikings’ brass took over they emphasized collaboration but that is always much easier to say than do. In this case, their only chance to improve was to work with Dobbs and get him as close to being fully comfortable with the gameplan as possible.

“I think the communication has been great, starting with the coaching staff asking, ‘Hey, what are you comfortable with? What plays do you like? What concepts are you good at?’” Dobbs said. “And for me, it’s sharing the things I like in the game plan and also not afraid to share things I don’t feel comfortable with, so that we have a chance to go out and execute a play at a high level.”

For the long term at the quarterback position with O’Connell, having a willingness to adapt would seem to bode well. He may, if Kirk Cousins does not return, end up needing to shape his offense to a rookie QB who will have very different skills and needs than Cousins.

For the short term, the right approach doesn’t guarantee the best results. It probably isn’t a coincidence that there are currently no teams above the No. 6 seed in the playoff race that have lost their starting quarterbacks for any significant portion of time this season. The only backups who are above .500 with more than two starts this season are Gardner Minshew (5-3) and Tommy DeVito (2-1). If things come apart from here, it will more likely be attributed to the realities of earth’s QB shortage than the way the team handled Dobbs. They can at least say that sticking with him and trying to play to his strengths gave them the best shot at getting to the playoffs.

Had the Vikings pulled the plug on Dobbs and gone to Mullens, it would have ended any chance that the Vikings use Dobbs as a bridge quarterback in 2024. It may feel like that possibility ended against the Bears but if the Vikings reach the postseason and Dobbs performs at a fairly high level with Justin Jefferson back in the mix, it could influence the front office’s decision on the future at QB.

If Dobbs can’t succeed despite the offensive flexibility, could it influence O’Connell to push for a return of Kirk Cousins? That’s harder to say because there are more things at play i.e. salary cap and other teams’ interest in Cousins.

The feeling on the short and long term at quarterback could swing week to week like Minnesota temperatures in the spring. O’Connell did not commit to Dobbs being the starting quarterback after this week. It stands to reason that if he struggles and turns the ball over despite the extra preparation and adaptations that Mullens or Hall may very well get their shot. Of course, a strong victory over the Raiders will give the Vikings a good shot at hanging onto a playoff position with games against Cincinnati, Detroit (twice) and Green Bay remaining.

Being in the hunt down the stretch is a familiar feeling for Vikings fans. In 2020 and 2021 the team was 6-6 and 5-7, respectively, after 12 weeks. But the quarterback dynamic adds a wider variance of outcomes along with more ramifications for the future. It feels like O’Connell sticking with Dobbs means is an important moment in a season that has had many notable ups and downs and it could lead us to a new phase in the QB discussion or right back to square one.

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