Vikings schedule release party: One key stat for each game
We take a closer look inside all 16 games on the Vikings' schedule
*Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings*
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The NFL is going full speed ahead with its offseason. On Thursday, the league announced its entire schedule. The Vikings’ slate is filled with fascinating matchups.
Let’s have a look at the numbers behind each game and what factors could decide the outcome…
Week 1: Green Bay Packers
Key stat: Kirk Cousins dropped back to pass 71 times vs. Green Bay last year and was pressured on 40 of them.
Why it matters: Since the Packers’ baffling NFL Draft, we have spent a lot of time breaking down what the Jordan Love draft pick/lack of weapons might mean for Aaron Rodgers and his future working with Matt LaFleur but in analyzing Vikings-Packers we can’t overlook the ways in which Green Bay dominated the Vikings’ offensive line.
Specifically Za’Darius Smith had four sacks and 14 pressures in the two games while moving all over on the defensive front. Can the Vikings improve the O-line enough to handle Smith, especially on the interior?
If they do, the Vikings can win at home. In four starts, Rodgers has zero games of 220 yards or more at US Bank Stadium and a 75.6 quarterback rating.
Week 2: AT Indianapolis Colts
Key stat: Philip Rivers ranked 32nd in “turnover-worthy” plays in 2019
Why it matters: The Colts have an extremely impressive infrastructure for the future Hall of Fame quarterback. Through the draft they’ve build a top-notch O-line, added another explosive running back in Jonathan Taylor (as Gopher fans well know) and tacked on one of the most polished receivers in the draft with Michael Pittman. He will compliment T.Y. Hilton. But neither those talented players nor head coach Frank Reich can keep Rivers from heaving the ball into places that he’s no longer capable of fitting it.
Last year the Chargers were giving the Vikings a run for their money in the first half of their Week 15 matchup until Rivers had a fumble that turned into an Ifeadi Odenigbo touchdown and then proceeded to toss three interceptions in a 39-10 blowout victory for the Vikings. The Colts can run with the Vikings — especially at home — but if there’s ever a week to take risks in the secondary, it’s against Rivers.
Week 3: Tennessee Titans
Key stat: Ryan Tannehill had the second highest QB rating in the NFL while under pressure in 2019
Why it matters: The Titans went all-in on Tannehill, signing him to a $118 million contract following his incredible 2019 that saw him lead the NFL in PFF grade and quarterback rating.
When you search for any area of weakness last year, you simply can’t find one. Tannehill ranked No. 1 in rating on play-action throws and fourth without play-action. Per the PFF QB Annual guide, he was third in “big-time throws,” third in the fewest “turnover worthy” plays and third in accuracy percentage.
The only thing that screams regression is his number under pressure. In his previous three seasons, Tannehill ranked 17th, 31st and 15th in rating with pressure.
The truth is: We really don’t know if his crazy-good play is sustainable but the Titans have a very good team and system that fits him. Whether everything keeps coming up Tannehill or not will determine how difficult this game will be.
Week 4: AT Houston Texans
Key stat: DeAndre Hopkins has graded as a top-five receiver by PFF each of the last three years
Why it matters: The Texans baffled the outside world by dealing one of the truly elite receivers in the NFL to Arizona in exchange for a second-round pick and running back David Johnson. While they acquired Brandin Cooks, he isn’t in Hopkins’s stratosphere in terms of being a complete receiver. Hopkins could have given the Vikings nightmares with his route precision and contested-catch ability. Now they will just need Jeff Gladney to run with Cooks on deep routes — which he’s fully capable of doing.
Week 5: AT Seattle Seahawks
Key stat: Seahawks led the NFL in plays using sets with six offensive linemen
Why it matters: Seattle ran over the Vikings last year. It wouldn’t be a surprise if their strategy was similar in 2020. They gained 218 yards on the ground in a wacky 37-30 win over Minnesota in 2019. But the Vikings might have looked for answers this offseason with several draft picks, including Oregon’s Troy Dye, who project as being multi-positional. You can bet the Vikings also remembered that night when signing Michael Pierce.
Week 6: Atlanta Falcons
Key stat: 26th in pass blocking grade by PFF
Why it matters: The Falcons drafted two offensive linemen in 2019 in Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary. They both suffered serious bumps in the road. McGary led the NFL in sacks allowed and Lindstrom suffered an injury in Week 1 against the Vikings and did not play again until Week 14.
In last year’s opener, the Vikings pressured Matt Ryan on 20 of 52 drop backs. He was sacked four times and threw two interceptions. The development of the Falcons’ O-line could make the difference between another easy Vikings win and a much tougher matchup with Matty Ice.
Week 7: BYE
Week 8: AT Green Bay Packers
Key stat: Aaron Rodgers went 7-1 with a 101.6 rating at home in 2019
Why it matters: We can talk all we want about Rodgers slipping from his all-time great pedestal of five years ago but he was still a force at Lambeau last year. Four of his five highest graded games by PFF were at home, including a playoff win over Seattle and victory over the Vikings in which Green Bay jumped out to a 21-point lead. In the Zimmer era, Rodgers has a 108.4 rating against the Vikings at home. If the drama subsides and Rodgers gains more understanding of the LaFleur offense, the Packers’ future Hall of Fame QB still has a chance to let it rip against a brand new Vikings secondary.
Week 9: Detroit Lions
Key stat: Matthew Stafford has been sacked 17 times in three games at US Bank Stadium
Why it matters: Even the league’s best quarterbacks struggle at US Bank Stadium. Stafford may have come away with two wins in his three starts since the venue’s opening in 2016 but he’s yet to register a QB rating above 90 or clear 220 passing yards inside Minnesota’s unfriendly confines. In those game, Danielle Hunter has particularly been a monster, picking up six sacks and 14 pressures on Stafford.
There are two question marks concerning the Vikings’ ability to get after Detroit’s QB: 1) Will they have the benefit of stadium noise this time around? How might that change Stafford’s ability to change protections on third down? 2) Will Everson Griffen’s absence effect Hunter’s ability to chase down Stafford?
One thing that was overlooked last year was that Stafford had the highest PFF grade of his career before he got hurt.
Week 10: AT Chicago Bears
Key stat: Since Zimmer took over in 2014, the Vikings are 2-4 in Chicago with a point differential of minus-26.
Why it matters: The weird thing is: No game between the Vikings and Bears in Chicago has been separated by more than 10 points and every game has had a combined point total of between 22 and 45 points and neither team has ever reached 30 points.
If you like old school, down-in-the-mud slugfests, odds are this is your ballgame. However, that type of matchup might not favor the 2020 Vikings.
Week 11: Dallas Cowboys
Key stat: No. 1 offense in yards per play last season
Why it matters: The Cowboys certainly gave the Vikings all they could handle with 397 yards passing in a 28-24 loss to Minnesota in Week 9. They approached the offseason and draft with a mind to keep building on a highly-explosive offense (that was poorly supported last year by coaching and special teams) by re-signing Amari Cooper and landing Oklahoma star CeeDee Lamb in the draft.
The last eight teams to reach the Super Bowl ranked in the top five in points scored. Dallas was sixth last year and could be every bit as dangerous this season. Based on the way Dak Prescott attacked Mike Hughes last year, this game will be a tough test for the young cornerback group.
Week 12: Carolina Panthers
Key stat: Teddy Bridgewater 6.2 average depth of target per throw, lowest in the NFL
Why it matters: One of the great stories in the league last season was Bridgewater’s 5-0 record in relief for injured Drew Brees. Overall he performed very well with a solid 73.0 PFF grade and 99.1 quarterback rating. But Teddy Two Gloves succeeded on the back of mostly a short, quick passing game. That may work with Matt Rhule’s Baylor offense and a weapon like Christian McCaffrey. However, his supporting cast won’t be anywhere close to Sean Payton’s stacked offense in New Orleans.
We know Bridgewater won’t be overwhelmed by the stage and drama of his return to Minnesota but whether he’s a challenge for the Vikings or not depends on if the Panthers can find ways to create explosive plays. That might be a tough ask for Carolina this year.
Week 13: Jacksonville Jaguars
Key stat: 11 projected starters under the age of 25
Why it matters: If you think the Vikings hit a wall with aging players and overhaul on the roster after 2019, you should see the Jaguars. The dominant defense that led them to the AFC Championship game in 2017 has been wiped off the map and now the Jags are rebuilding from the bottom up.
In a few years they might be one of the most exciting teams in the NFL to watch with two crazy-athletic first-round picks this year in corner CJ Henderson and defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson combined with a young receiving duo with DJ Chark (who had 73 catches for 1,008 yards last year) and playmaking second-round pick Laviska Shenault.
But that’s off in the distance. The Jags will face an uphill battle with Gardner Minshew at quarterback and youth everywhere around him. When they come to the Twin Cities, expect to hear the words “trap game.”
Week 14: AT Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key stat: Tom Brady’s new top two receivers averaged 15.5 (Chris Godwin) and 17.3 (Mike Evans) yards per reception last year
Why it matters: One of the most interesting storylines in the NFL this year — if not No. 1 on every national list — will be whether Brady can rekindle the magic after his worst career season in 2019. The upgrade in playmakers is absolutely massive, especially with Rob Gronkowski in the mix but the question is whether there’s enough left in the tank to get the ball downfield to Godwin and Evans. Are we looking at 2009 Brett Favre or 2010 Brett Favre?
Week 15: Chicago Bears
Key stat: Nick Foles has never produced a season PFF grade over 80
Why it matters: While it’s unclear whether Foles or Mitch Trubisky will be quarterbacking the Bears, the writing seems like it’s on the wall for Mitch with the team declining his fifth-year option. But if they think Foles can save them, Chicago’s management might be a victim of wishful thinking.
Vikings fans will remember Foles gunning the ball all over the field in the NFC Championship but over his career he has largely been a product of his environment — even in 2017. When things are great, he’s good enough to win or even be great for spurts. When things are bad, he’s awful.
Even in his best season of 2013, he only ranked as the 13th best QB in the league by PFF standards. His success was largely fueled by Shady McCoy, DeSean Jackson and a brief stint of Chip Kelly being a genius. Including playoffs in the Eagles’ Super Bowl run in 2017, his grade was only a meh 76.6.
In 2012, 2014, 2015 and 2019, he graded 32nd, 23rd, 33rd and 26th.
That means the pressure is on the Bears’ defense, offensive supporting cast (and their nine tight ends) and head coach Matt Nagy to prop up the journeyman. That could be a tough task without much help aside from Allen Robinson. The door is open for Mike Zimmer’s defense to enact its revenge at US Bank Stadium. Then again, with the Foles Coaster, you never know.
Week 16: AT New Orleans Saints
Key stat: All four games between the Vikings and Saints since 2017 have been decided by 10 points or less and each has produced between 46 and 53 combined points.
Why it matters: We have reached full-on rivalry level between these two teams. The Saints will again be a popular Super Bowl pick and might have the strongest top-to-bottom roster in the NFL but the Vikings have come up on the right side of heartbreak two times in a row in the postseason. Get your popcorn ready.
Week 17: AT Detroit Lions
Key stat: Nine defensive players signed in free agency
Why it matters: Over the past two seasons, Matt Patricia’s defense has allowed the most passing yards and fifth highest passer rating against (102.7) in the NFL. This offseason they traded top corner Darius Slay but added No. 3 overall pick corner Jeff Okudah in his spot and all sorts of free agent bodies to fill out the rest of the defense. How Patricia uses linebacker Jamie Collins could impact whether they can threaten passers and the addition of former Viking Jayron Kearse, a hybrid safety/corner/linebacker, will be interesting.
The Vikings steamrolled the Lions defense in Detroit last year but the hits and misses for the Lions on the free agent market will play a big role in Minnesota’s chances in the Motor City.
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This season has roller coaster written all over it...man, I hope football is back.
I really like what the team did to bring in some reinforcements to the secondary via the draft. But reading through this i'm reminded of how young we will be back there without a true full offseason. I'm thinking we should bring in a FA vet if the cap will allow. Guys like Darqueze Dennard and Logan Ryan are still out there. Hopefully Hughes and Hill have taken steps forward going into their 3rd seasons.