The insurance policy analogy is apt: one doesn't just send State Farm a cheque for $10K, wait until the boat sinks or the house burns, and then ask for some coverage. Good GMing is having the discussion with HOU and then getting a framework in place with NE before making any trades.
The problem with the Hocks trade was paying a premium of draft capital and then having to extend him the following offseason. It should be either/or, not both. Likewise, there is a hidden benefit to hitting on day 2-3 picks. They haven't made life-changing money yet, the floor from which they negotiate is a lot lower, and so it's much easier to negotiate team-friendly contracts. We see examples with the JJ, Barr and Darrisaw extensions vs the Hunter, Diggs and Thielen extensions.
Ancient wisdom: the dose makes the poison. One dubious trade of draft capital has limited harm. When it's a continued pattern of behaviour, the result is a roster without young, cheap talent. That, in turn, requires overpaying in UFA and here we are. Problem 1 is the worst QB situation in the conference and that overwhelms everything else. Problem 2 is an old, very expensive roster.
Also, I think our particular coaches / schemes need not only specific skill sets but also the right personalities. Rookies are going to have a harder time with some of the complex stuff KOC and Flo want to do. It's probably quite challenging to draft for them, and likely a learning curve for everyone to communicate, etc. Having young (in their career) coaches and a similarly young GM was probably going to result in some bumps - regardless of who was at the helm.
I have a hard time telling whether we overdo it a little bit as fans when talking about how complex their systems are, but I tend to agree on that point. If your systems are more complex than the average team, you’re just going to naturally find yourself veering towards vets and away from younger players. I know KOC used to talk about how his system just had the illusion of complexity, but I think both sides of the ball are probably more complex than the average around the league. Small part of the draft failings, if it played a part at all, though.
I think you presented a fair balance... I would add one thing Kwesi and the Vikings did seem to be aggressive on and do fairly well were UDFAs... Pace was a decent pickup (especially given his salary even though he trailed off this year and Redmond is a legit stud (personally I am intrigued by Elijah Williams but his test really begins next year.
There are important hints here
Get picks
Don`t lose draft capital on trades except when getting a QB.
Agreed, using capital for a QB is a completely different exercise.
Alas, it's much easier for UDFAs to make the roster when they don't have to beat out draft picks. The bottom dozen or so players will be on rookie deals, but Asamoah giving way to Pace giving way to Wilson isn't an optimal outcome.
Their Bynum and Redmond evaluations still bug me. Both guys showed a lot of promise in a pretty decent sample size and yet the team spent a ton of draft capital and salary cap to try and replace them. The Mason move was fine, and resigning Jones is clearly the bigger issue, but spending picks on a mid level vet at RB in a draft full of good RBs also still bugs me. All of these moves speak to the anti development, win now attitude Coller is talking about. Watch them overpay to get Love in this draft when they could’ve gotten someone just as good for half the cost last year.
Thorough article, thanks Matt. Ultimately the “analytics genius” got fleeced in the draft way too often, trading down for too little and trading up for too much.
I just have one question, for Mr. Coller, who has a massive amount of "data" from observing JJ McCarthy far more than anyone here. Question: Does McCarthy have what it takes to be a great QB for the Vikings, or not?
The insurance policy analogy is apt: one doesn't just send State Farm a cheque for $10K, wait until the boat sinks or the house burns, and then ask for some coverage. Good GMing is having the discussion with HOU and then getting a framework in place with NE before making any trades.
The problem with the Hocks trade was paying a premium of draft capital and then having to extend him the following offseason. It should be either/or, not both. Likewise, there is a hidden benefit to hitting on day 2-3 picks. They haven't made life-changing money yet, the floor from which they negotiate is a lot lower, and so it's much easier to negotiate team-friendly contracts. We see examples with the JJ, Barr and Darrisaw extensions vs the Hunter, Diggs and Thielen extensions.
Ancient wisdom: the dose makes the poison. One dubious trade of draft capital has limited harm. When it's a continued pattern of behaviour, the result is a roster without young, cheap talent. That, in turn, requires overpaying in UFA and here we are. Problem 1 is the worst QB situation in the conference and that overwhelms everything else. Problem 2 is an old, very expensive roster.
Heckuva job, KAMie.
Also, I think our particular coaches / schemes need not only specific skill sets but also the right personalities. Rookies are going to have a harder time with some of the complex stuff KOC and Flo want to do. It's probably quite challenging to draft for them, and likely a learning curve for everyone to communicate, etc. Having young (in their career) coaches and a similarly young GM was probably going to result in some bumps - regardless of who was at the helm.
I have a hard time telling whether we overdo it a little bit as fans when talking about how complex their systems are, but I tend to agree on that point. If your systems are more complex than the average team, you’re just going to naturally find yourself veering towards vets and away from younger players. I know KOC used to talk about how his system just had the illusion of complexity, but I think both sides of the ball are probably more complex than the average around the league. Small part of the draft failings, if it played a part at all, though.
I think you presented a fair balance... I would add one thing Kwesi and the Vikings did seem to be aggressive on and do fairly well were UDFAs... Pace was a decent pickup (especially given his salary even though he trailed off this year and Redmond is a legit stud (personally I am intrigued by Elijah Williams but his test really begins next year.
There are important hints here
Get picks
Don`t lose draft capital on trades except when getting a QB.
Agreed, using capital for a QB is a completely different exercise.
Alas, it's much easier for UDFAs to make the roster when they don't have to beat out draft picks. The bottom dozen or so players will be on rookie deals, but Asamoah giving way to Pace giving way to Wilson isn't an optimal outcome.
Their Bynum and Redmond evaluations still bug me. Both guys showed a lot of promise in a pretty decent sample size and yet the team spent a ton of draft capital and salary cap to try and replace them. The Mason move was fine, and resigning Jones is clearly the bigger issue, but spending picks on a mid level vet at RB in a draft full of good RBs also still bugs me. All of these moves speak to the anti development, win now attitude Coller is talking about. Watch them overpay to get Love in this draft when they could’ve gotten someone just as good for half the cost last year.
Thorough article, thanks Matt. Ultimately the “analytics genius” got fleeced in the draft way too often, trading down for too little and trading up for too much.
I just have one question, for Mr. Coller, who has a massive amount of "data" from observing JJ McCarthy far more than anyone here. Question: Does McCarthy have what it takes to be a great QB for the Vikings, or not?
Haha! Hilarious question. Love it!