The future of the Vikings: The timeline
The Vikings want to contend in 2021 but can they do enough this offseason? Will ownership have patience?
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the course of a few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
Now for the final part: The timeline…
What makes the NFL unique is that the salary cap and rapid pace in which players age causes teams to think in terms of winning windows. Unless a franchise is blessed with Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, there’s a constantly process of building toward a few seasons in which a championship is possible. That window can be sustained for a period of time until age and cost catches up with a team and then it’s time to retool or rebuild.
We learned last year that understanding the timeline is extremely important. Despite losing numerous key players in the offseason, the Vikings made moves that implied they believed winning in 2020 could be a reality. They overlooked how thin the roster was and underestimated how difficult it would be for rookies and unproven players to take on key roles on defense.
Now with many difficult decisions to make (as were laid out in parts 1-8), will the Vikings again be aggressive this offseason with hopes of turning the ship back toward competing for a Super Bowl? Or will they take a long-term approach and aim for incremental improvement?
How far do they have to go?
There are all sorts of different ways in which we could try to quantify how much better the Vikings need to be in 2021 in order to be a playoff team and/or legitimate contender but we can start by comparing with the most basic statistic (points) to playoff teams and teams that played championship weekend.
From an offensive perspective, the average Final Four team had a point differential of plus-128, meaning the Vikings would need to improve by 173 points overall in order to reach that mark in 2021. The average playoff team was plus-88, which is 133 points ahead of Minnesota’s minus-45.
Three in recent years the Vikings have made big gains in point differential after missing the postseason. They jumped by 81 points from 2014 to 2015, 110 points from 2016 to 2017 and 85 points from 2018 to 2019. By that measure, getting back to the playoffs would require a more impressive growth than any other time in recent history in which they’ve bounced back.
Massive turnarounds in point differential are not unheard of. From 2019 to 2020, the Dolphins were an incredible 254 points better, going from minus-188 to plus-66. Washington gained 177 points. Those two rebuilding squads were the only ones with more than 133 point improvements. Tampa Bay was next going from plus-9 to plus-137. Tom Brady helped there.
On the offensive side, the Vikings were 63 points behind the average championship weekend team and 14 points behind an average playoff offense.
Here’s how they compared in points scored to the rest of the playoff teams:
Defensively the average playoff team was actually better than the average of the Bills/Chiefs/Packers/Bucs. The Vikings were 118 points short of the average playoff team on defense and 110 behind the last four standing.
The bottom line: Even with a solid overall season from the Vikings’ offense, there still needs to improve in order to be a serious contender next season and the defense needs to take gigantic steps forward. With an extra playoff team and the NFC in flux, the door is more open to make the postseason than in years past but it may still take Mike Zimmer’s biggest year-to-year turnaround yet to get there.
What are they working with?
When we’re trying to determine how long it should take in order for the Vikings to return to the postseason and to Super Bowl contention, we have to look at the foundational pieces, how much power they have to improve everything else and how much control they have over the outcomes.
Last year the Vikings entered the 2020 season with the sixth youngest roster in the NFL. The issue, however, with using that number to view them as an up-and-coming squad is that most of the club’s core players are not on the young side. The only two players under 25 who could be qualified as “proven difference makers” are Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith Jr. The rest remain up in the air.
The futures of players who will swing the fate of the team like Jeff Gladney, Cam Dantzler, Ezra Cleveland are still very much to be determined.
In comparison, the Vikings have Kirk Cousins, Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr, Riley Reiff, Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, Harrison Smith, Michael Pierce, Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook all on at least their second contracts. There are question marks about several of these players’ futures, including Cousins, if recent rumors are to be taken seriously.
So how strong is the current group to build around? We won’t really know exactly until Year 2 of the 2021 draft class and until things like Hunter and Rudolph’s situations are resolved.
We can say that if Cousins remains the quarterback, he guarantees a certain level of offensive performance. Over the last six years, he has a 100.5 quarterback rating and has never missed a game due to injury.
The Vikings’ roster also has truly elite players. Jefferson, Hunter, Smith, Kendricks and Cook aren’t just good players, they’re All-Pro caliber.
But putting the rest of the pieces together will require some economic savvy. They are currently $7.6 million over the cap (per OverTheCap.com) and short a second-round pick.
The Vikings will, however, have the draft capital to move up, should they choose to do so. They own three fourth-round picks prior to the announcement of compensatory picks, which OverTheCap projects they will receive three. Here’s their current draft selections: 1st, 3rd, 3rd via Ravens, 4th, 4th via Bears, 4th via Bills, 5th via Ravens, 5th, 6th, 7th.
Normally what it might mean when a team is working with a roster that has a lot of question marks about older players, a tough cap situation and a good amount of draft capital, they will be in the process of overhauling the roster. But it doesn’t feel like the Vikings are in position to do so with their elite talents in their primes and a coach/general manager who have been in place for years.
How much time do they have?
Figuring out what type of job security Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman have is like a puzzle. We can put together the pieces by looking at reports that the Vikings considered trading Zimmer to Dallas in 2019 and the fact that both the head coach and GM didn’t get extensions until late in the summer.
We can try to fit together things like the lack of recent draft success (Justin Jefferson aside) and the aggressive moves that didn’t pay off. Or we can look at the big picture of two playoff wins since 2014 and wonder whether ownership would be putting pressure on Zimmer/Spielman to take the Vikings deep into the playoffs next season. But there are still many holes in our puzzle.
Is ownership willing to take a long view? If so, would that mean trading Kirk Cousins or simply letting his time in Minnesota play out in order to build a strong roster for the next quarterback?
Or do the Wilfs want Zimmer/Spielman to prove they can build a 2017 team again. Do they want to win around Cousins, who they went all-in on prior to the 2018 season and then doubled down last offseason with an extension?
The smart money is on the Vikings’ brass going into 2021 with pressure to reach the playoffs. But sometimes it isn’t just a “yes or no” proposition. Sometimes it’s “yes, and.” Did they make the playoffs and show that the future could be bright? Did they make the playoffs and win a round? Did they make the playoffs and put up a fight? Did they make the playoffs and appear to have room to grow the following year?
It might also be the case that the Wilfs take a know-it-when-we-see-it approach.
Options
In each of the “Future of the Vikings” articles we looked at every option for every position. In terms of the timeline, there’s big picture direction options and options with the quarterback.
— The Vikings could trade Kirk Cousins and use a Bridge(water?) quarterback to sustain a level of competitiveness for 2021 until they can draft a QB of the future with whatever draft capital they receive in exchange for the starter. That would mean setting back the Super Bowl clock by a few years but might play out better in the long run. It could also blow up in their faces.
— They could keep Cousins, move out some veteran players, keep others and continue to take swings in the draft with hopes of hitting a 2015 draft that changes the entire future of the franchise. The Saints went through this with several 7-9 seasons until they had a home run draft in 2017.
— The Vikings have the choice of moving out most of their valuable assets like Smith and Hunter and resetting the roster around Cousins, which would mean stacking a bunch of draft capital and aiming for 2022 to be the next highly competitive year.
— They could try to work around the shortage of cap space, aim for savvy signings and lean on the development of draft picks over the last few years to get them in position in 2021 to compete.
— Chasing big fish signings or trades, despite the cap issues, are still a possibility if they do some maneuvering. Though that didn’t exactly work out with Yannick Ngakoue last year.
— Deviating from how they build the 2017 club should be on the table too. Zimmer’s squads have been defense first since he arrived. But with an expensive QB and playmakers on offense, pouring more resources into getting the most out of Cousins is a direction they could consider.
The future of the Vikings
The most likely approach is the Vikings trying to turn things around in 2021 to compete for playoff position. That might mean making some difficult decisions on the roster in order to add veterans in free agency. It will definitely rely on the 2019 and 2020 draft classes coming through and Kirk Cousins performing at a high level.
Making the playoffs next year and becoming a legitimate contender would require some things to break their way. If the NFC is a weak conference next year or if another rookie emerges like Justin Jefferson did this year and the Vikings right some of the wrongs of the 2021 offseason they have a chance.
But there is always the chance that the organization feels that it is destined to live Groundhog Day if there aren’t major changes this offseason. There might be enough fear of getting stuck in the middle that an overhaul comes in the next few months.
We will know pretty quickly this offseason how they view the timeline.
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Before I say anything about this (awesome) article, I want to say thanks for the outstanding conversation with Mike Renner of PFF. Up until 10 days ago I couldn't tell you who Renner was, but PFF YouTube videos of him and his Odd Couple partner Austin Gayle are every bit as fantastic as you said in the podcast and Renner has quickly become my favorite draft expert. When a guy will say on air, regarding Richie Grant at the Senior Bowl practices, that "every other Safety looked like shit in 1 on 1s" then he's my guy. Also, "off platform arm talent" in describing Zach Wilson to you was a gem. And his Draft Guide is every bit as good as you say as well. So thanks for the terrific podcasts!
Funny that you mention Bridgewater as a possibility to come back to Minnesota because I'm watching Gayle and Renner right now talking about how much offensive talent Carolina has and how they shot themselves in the foot getting Bridgewater. Fascinating because:
a) Is Carolina a legitimate trade partner for Cousins if they lose out on the top 4 QBs in the draft?
b) They point out that getting Teddy was a big mistake for Carolina, so mediocre that he can't use all that talent to get you to even .500 as a team, but also not bad enough for you to lose 14 games...Honesty about Teddy, thank you Austin and Mike.
c) Forget the fantasy trades to the Niners or the Colts, this in the new number one. If the trade happens we're out from under Cousins' contract, Teddy is bad enough to go 4-12 with this team to get a top 5 pick for a QB in 2022, and that record gets Mike Zimmer canned. That's a Win-Win-Win.
There's so much more great stuff in your article to get to, especially the whole thing on achieving a playoff caliber points differential, but I'll spare you the full phone book tonight. Thanks again.
Matthew, I subscribed because I respect your work, guests and perspective but I’m growing weary of the KC narrative as an almost constant theme. I get it but I need more than one story line if I’m to renew. Thanks for your strong efforts.