The future of the Vikings, part 6: Defensive line
The future of the Vikings, part 6: Defensive line
There's a lot of work to do on the D-line and uncertainty surrounding Danielle Hunter's future
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the course of a few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
Season overview and key stats
When Mike Zimmer said in his final press conference that he “miscalculated some things,” it was assumed he was talking in part about the defensive line. During the offseason, the Vikings cut Linval Joseph and voided the final year of Everson Griffen’s deal and then struggled mightily to replace them.
The Vikings’ solutions to losing Griffen and Joseph were to sign former Raven Michael Pierce, hope Danielle Hunter would carry the pass rushing load and lean on development players to rise to the opportunity. But Pierce opted out and Hunter got hurt on the first day of training camp, putting much more on the shoulders of players who had never started before.
When Pierce opted out, there were still numerous available veteran free agents on the defensive line and the Vikings had some open cap space to spend. But rather than sign proven players to fill the void, they chose to go all-in by trading a second-round pick for Jaguars rusher Yannick Ngakoue.
The results were nothing short of a disaster. The Vikings graded dead last by PFF in pass rush, 28th in sacks and gave up the sixth most yards rushing per game. They traded Ngakoue at the deadline and saw several recent mid-round draft picks prove they weren’t ready/able to play. Ngakoue finished the season as the team’s leader in sacks despite only playing six games.
Now the Vikings are left to wonder how they missed on developmental draft picks and how they’ll rebuild a line that was once the driver of the defense’s success.
Let’s have a look at how each player fared this season and the options for improvement…
Ifeadi Odenigbo
Stat line: 696 snaps, 3.5 sacks, 42 pressures (31st), 60.7 PFF grade (41st of 62 starters)
After being cut twice out of camp, Odenigbo emerged as a quality situational pass rusher in 2019, racking up 7.0 sacks. He moved all over the defensive line, occasionally giving Griffen/Hunter a rest at defensive end and many times rushing the quarterback on third down from an interior spot.
When the Vikings traded for Ngakoue, it signaled that they weren’t comfortable with Odenigbo holding down a starting defensive end role. As the season went along, we learned exactly why. The 27-year-old rusher struggled to reach the quarterback when he was asked to beat tackles one on one.
He did have a few very good games including an eight-pressure showing versus Jacksonville and finished ranking 34th of 62 starters in pressure rate. The problem was that he rarely finished the job. Odenigbo also graded very poorly against the run, ranking 51st of 62 by PFF.
The conclusion is pretty straight forward: Odenigbo has a role in the NFL as a situational pass rusher. He shouldn’t be asked for more unless it’s in case of emergency.
Shamar Stephen
Stat line: 662 snaps, 0.5 sacks, 9 pressures (61st), 61.7 PFF grade (46th of 71 starters)
The Vikings got Shamar Stephen’s role right in 2017 and since then they have made bizarre decisions with him.
Three years ago he played 384 snaps, largely in early-down situations and played solidly with a 67.9 PFF grade and 69.9 grade against the run. After letting him walk in favor of Sheldon Richardson in 2018, the Vikings brought back Stephen to play 200 more snaps in 2019. His grades dropped and he only managed six pressures on 315 pass rush snaps.
When Pierce opted out, the Vikings tabbed Stephen for a position change to nose tackle rather than signing someone off the free agent market like Snacks Harrison. While it wasn’t a complete wreck, Stephen’s results were again decidedly below his 2017 grades.
He also managed only nine pressures. The team has argued that the job of the nose tackle isn’t exactly to all-out rush the passer but Linval Joseph ranked as high as 20th in pass rush efficiency, while Stephen finished second to last this year (only ahead of his own teammate).
Like Odenigbo, Stephen is a fine situational player. Asking for more was a miscalculation.
Jaleel Johnson
Stat line: 654 snaps, 1.5 sacks, 7 pressures (67th), 35.3 PFF grade (71st of 71 starters)
By PFF grade and pass rushing efficiency, Jaleel Johnson was the worst starting player at his position in the NFL. He was also the third lowest graded run defender.
For a staff that has been so good at evaluating and developing talent over the years, it’s surprising that they could miss by so far on a player who was drafted in 2017 and had three years to be evaluated. In 261 snaps in 2018 and 433 snaps in 2019, Johnson graded well below average by PFF and didn’t show any signs of being a factor in the pass rush.
Usually players who grade under 50 for seven out of eight games see their snap counts dip but Johnson continued to get consistent playing time, seeing between 30-50 snaps in 14 of 16 games.
If the Vikings were looking for an answer on whether he could be a future rotational player, they got that answer.
Jalyn Holmes
Stat line: 617 snaps, 0.0 sacks, 19 pressures (79th), 52.7 PFF grade (109th of 124 starters + rotational DEs)
Speaking of getting answers on players, Jalyn Holmes left little to mystery this year after seeing a heavy workload. He would need to make major improvement to be an effective role player.
Holmes falls under the categories of two themes of recent miscues by the Vikings in drafting developmental D-linemen. One of them is moving positions, the other is picking players with little-to-no production in college based on size/athleticism.
Holmes had all of 5.0 sacks in college but had length and athleticism. Two years after being moved from D-end to defensive tackle, he was switched back to D-end, where he produced the NFL’s lowest pressure rate by anyone with more than 300 pass rushing snaps.
DJ Wonnum
Stat line: 471, 3.0 sacks, 22 pressures (69th), 51.1 PFF grade (115th of 124)
Wonnum similarly was a projection-based pick on his athleticism/length and character. In his first year, there weren’t many signs that he was ready to be thrown right into the fire aside from an exciting strip sack on Aaron Rodgers in a win over the Packers. Out of 124 players who were either starters or situational rushers, he ranked 87th in pressure rate.
One thing that’s hard to figure with a player like Wonnum is how helpful his experience in 2020 really was for his long-term development. Mike Zimmer and D-line coach Andre Patterson talked excitedly about some of the things they saw from Wonnum, which would indicate he’ll have a chance for a role next year. But it’s unlikely that he’ll be competing for a starting job.
Armon Watts
Stat line: 392 snaps, 0.0, 12 pressures (77th), 60.7 PFF grade (77th of 139 starters + rotational DTs)
Watts brought some intrigue to the defensive line after a strong ending to the 2019 season but that didn’t carry over to 2020. He showed flashes throughout the season with four games that were graded 75 or higher by PFF but he failed to produce multiple QB pressures a single time.
The 2019 sixth-round pick wasn’t all that effective against the run either, ranking 84th of 139.
We have seen past project players like Stephen Weatherly and Ifeadi Odenigbo turn into solid role players in Year 3, so next year’s camp will be big for Watts if he wants to show that there’s any future in Minnesota as a role player.
Yannick Ngakoue
Stat line: 310 snaps with the Vikings, 5.0 sacks, 16 pressures, 64.4 PFF grade with Vikings, 69.9 overall grade (23rd of 62 starters)
It does feel like pouring salt in Vikings fans’ wounds to include the fact that Ngakoue was the highest graded Vikings D-lineman by PFF and led the team in sacks. But that speaks more to the holes on the rest of the line than it does Ngakoue as a player.
When the Vikings acquired the Jags’ Pro Bowler, GM Rick Spielman said they believed he’d form a tandem with Danielle Hunter. Most (including Purple Insider) expected the trade to be a long-term move to lock up two defensive ends for the foreseeable future. But it became quickly apparent that Ngakoue was not a fit for Mike Zimmer, especially with his poor run defense.
To that end, the Viking made the right call in trading him away rather than doubling down on a player that didn’t fit. But in the context of 2020, a difference-making pass rusher was missed down the stretch when the Vikings failed to create pressure in key games.
Hercules Mata’afa
Stat line: 293 snaps, 2.5 sacks, 19 pressures (79th), 64.3 PFF grade (61st of 124)
The Vikings have stuck with Mata’afa since 2018 and he finally saw action in 2020. At one point he was waived but returned to show flashes in games against Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago in which he racked up 10 total pressures. However, he made little impact the rest of the way, picking up just five pressures between Weeks 11-16 despite seeing regular action.
Zimmer limited his usage to mostly pass rushing situations but Mata’afa graded poorly when he was used against the run, rating as the 10th lowest tackling DE by PFF.
Mata’afa did enough to be in a competition for a depth role next year.
Eddie Yarbrough
Stat line: 83 snaps, 0.0 sacks, 1 pressure, 36.7 PFF grade
Yarbrough made the team out of camp and ended up being waived and subsequently bumped up from the practice squad when the Vikings had some injuries.
James Lynch
Stat line: 59 snaps, 1.0, 1 pressure, 48.9 PFF grade
After some hype about his sack totals in college, Lynch barely saw the field. Will he be another player who moves positions and eventually lands back where they started?
Jordan Brailford
Stat line: 34 snaps, 0.0 sacks, 3 pressures, 92.1 PFF grade
The contracts
Danielle Hunter — Carries a $17.7 million cap hit in 2021 and 2022 and $14.7 million in 2023. Vikings create $5.7 million by trading him.
Shamar Stephen — $5.1 million cap hit next year, Vikings can create $3.7 million by releasing him
Ifeadi Odenigbo — Restricted free agent
Jaleel Johnson — Unrestricted free agent
DJ Wonnum — Year 2 of rookie deal, under $1 million
Armon Watts — Year 3 of rookie deal, under $1 million
James Lynch — Year 2 of rookie deal, under $1 million
Hercules Mata’afa — Under $1 million
Jordan Brailford — Under $1 million
Kenny Willekes — Year 2 of rookie deal, under $1 million
Options
Where to begin…
Defensive end
— The elephant in the room is Danielle Hunter. When he underwent season-ending surgery, NFL Network reported that the Pro Bowler either wants a new contract that makes him the highest paid defense end in football or he wants to be traded. Assuming that’s still the case, the Vikings are in a tricky spot with him. The top edge rusher in the NFL makes $27 million per year. There’s no cap maneuvering that makes a number in that ballpark work with their cap situation.
That doesn’t mean it’s impossible to work something out. It does mean that this could get ugly, either in a standoff between Hunter and the team (like we’ve seen with Kyle Rudolph and Dalvin Cook recently) or in terms of the Vikings’ future cap situation if they do give him a new deal.
Trading Hunter sounds like a terrible idea on its face because he’s a marvelous player. But whether the Vikings would consider it entirely depends on the return. As was the case with Stefon Diggs, when a first-round pick came knocking, they couldn’t turn it down. The most difficult question to answer is how much Hunter’s neck injury would hurt his trade value.
— In terms of other options, whether Hunter stays or goes impacts everything. If he is traded, the Vikings would need to be in the market for top DE free agents like Matt Judon, Melvin Ingram, Olivier Vernon, Carl Lawson, Shaq Barrett and Romeo Okwara.
If Hunter stays, the Vikings fall more into the category of bargain hunting. Veterans like Justin Houston, Ryan Kerrigan, Aldon Smith, Alex Okafor and Markus Golden are among the names making up the second wave of free agency.
— Mock drafts are already picking defensive ends for the Vikings en masse. Two players that show up most often are Gregory Rousseau of Miami and Michigan’s Kwity Paye but there are others in a strong DE class. Patrick Jones of Pitt, Wake Forest’s Carlos Basham and Jayson Oweh of Penn State are routinely projected in the first round.
Even if the Vikings do pick an edge rusher in the first round, they would still likely require a free agent or two unless they believe in DJ Wonnum and Ifeadi Odenigbo filling in the rotational roles.
Defensive tackle
— Getting Michael Pierce back will be helpful but he played fewer than 600 snaps in 2019 so they can’t consider that spot set with him returning. The biggest key is getting more pressure from the inside like they had with Tom Johnson in 2017 and Sheldon Richardson in 2018.
To put the gap of pressure in context, Johnson had four straight years of 30 or more pressures (including 54 in 2015). Between 2019 and 2020, Vikings starting DTs added up to 38 pressures.
So we know the problem. The solution isn’t particularly easy. Alabama’s Christian Barmore may end up being the only first-round defensive tackle this year in a very light DT class.
In free agency, Leonard Williams is the clear-cut best defensive tackle but he will demand top dollar. There aren’t many under-the-radar options but here are a few:
— Denver free agent Shelby Harris had 27 pressures in 294 pass rush snaps
— Maliek Collins had a brutal year with Vegas but had 48 pressures in 2019
— Dallas’s Tyrone Crawford produce 24 pressures in 293 snaps. There are a handful of others with track records but risks attached.
— Solomon Thomas, a former top pick who would be a reclamation project.
The future at DL
It’s hard to pin down the Vikings’ future along the defensive line because we don’t have answers yet about Danielle Hunter’s future. However, the most likely scenario based on Hunter’s value to the Vikings and age is that they will find a way to keep him in Minnesota and sign a value veteran defensive end and draft a D-lineman in the first round. It’s possible they could end up picking multiple linemen in the first three rounds and signing multiple players on the D-line as well.
Even if Hunter and Pierce return fully ready to roll in 2020, there’s much work to be done.
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When I read your various analysis, I often find myself scratching my head and wondering, why did we get rid of Tom Johnson, Richardson, Easton, Waverly?
When Pierce opted out I thought the Vikings would sign a veteran FA NT or 3T to a one year contract, I’m still surprised they didn’t (Domato Peko was my choice)