The future of the Vikings, part 2: Head coach
What did a 7-9 finish to 2020 mean for Mike Zimmer?
Welcome everyone to the “Future of the Vikings” series here at Purple Insider. Over the next few weeks, we’ll be taking a look at every position on the Minnesota Vikings and breaking down the final results, key statistics, contracts and options for improvement.
For Part 2, we look at Mike Zimmer’s future…
Season overview and statistics
When reviewing Zimmer’s 2020 season, we have to begin with the team’s 2019 playoff victory over the New Orleans Saints.
Prior to the game, there were reports that the Vikings would consider trading Zimmer to the Dallas Cowboys to fill their coaching vacancy. Days after the Vikings beat the Saints on the back of an excellent defensive gameplan, Dallas hired Mike McCarthy.
At the NFL Combine, multiple sources told Purple Insider that there was an increasing feeling of tension surrounding Zimmer within the building and that some wanted Kevin Stefanski to take over as head coach. Stefanski was hired by the Cleveland Browns after producing the Vikings’ best offensive season under Zimmer. The Vikings eventually signed Zimmer to a contract extension — though it wasn’t until late in the summer that he agreed to a new contract.
During the offseason, Zimmer saw his defense come apart. Some players left because of salary cap reasons, others like Everson Griffen, Xavier Rhodes and Mackensie Alexander left despite the Vikings reportedly having interest in keeping them.
In the 2019 playoff game against New Orleans, every defensive player on the field had been with Zimmer since 2015. By Week 1 of 2020, only Harrison Smith, Eric Kendricks, Anthony Harris and Anthony Barr were left (and Danielle Hunter injured).
The rest of the group was filled with project players. They opened with three cornerbacks who had not started for a full season and two defensive linemen who hadn’t been starters before either.
Zimmer believed he could coach ‘em up. He talked repeatedly over the offseason about how veteran players would fill in the gaps for the unproved newbies. It’s hard to pinpoint Zimmer’s role in the Yannick Ngakoue trade but it’s clear the team wouldn’t have made the deal if they believed 2020 would be a rebuilding year.
Zimmer later acknowledged that he “miscalculated” the impact of the players who exited. That also might imply that he figured players they had been developing would work out better than they did. While the team did have two rookie corners lead their position group in snaps, eight of the top 10 players in snap count had been with the Vikings since at least 2018.
The Vikings opened the regular season 1-5 and allowed at least 25 points in five of six games. After a victory against Green Bay, there appeared to be a path back to the playoff race but the Vikings came up short in tight games against Dallas and Chicago and then allowed 52 points to New Orleans in their final shot at playing a meaningful Week 17 game. The season was filled with close, compelling contests that could have gone either way but the Vikings also went 1-5 in games decided by more than one score.
While a win over the Lions in Week 17 improved the team’s record to 7-9, tying his 2014 mark, by every defensive metric the team was much worse than 2014. They finished 27th in yards allowed and 29th in points versus 14th and 11th, respectively, in 2014. The defense finished 30th in net yards per pass attempt allowed. Zimmer’s previous worst mark in Minnesota was 12th.
Still, the biggest criticism of the Vikings’ head coach did not come on the defensive side. He was more widely scrutinized for leaning heavily on the run game. The Vikings ranked 27th in pass attempts (the second lowest pass attempt ranking of OC Gary Kubiak’s career, by the way). The passing game ranked sixth in net yards per attempt but passed on only 54% of plays (27th).
The offense was efficient in yards per play but it was not always effective in producing points. They scored on 39.8% of drives, 18th in the league. Part of that ranking was caused by turnovers (Vikings were 22nd) and part by third down performance (16th).
In his end-of-year press conference, Zimmer expressed that he was proud of the effort that his team put forth and said there was a lot of work to do this offseason on defense. He noted that he was happy with the offense and wants to maintain the same system if Gary Kubiak decides to retire.
A few other statistics from this season:
— Vikings finished with 23 sacks. In 2019, Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen combined for 22.5
— The Vikings’ cumulative defense graded sixth worst by PFF, meaning the results matched the talent
— The Vikings finished 22nd in point differential, Zimmer’s worst mark as head coach
— EdjSports, which studies in-game management decisions, ranked Zimmer 21st
Options
Zimmer’s three-year extension begins in 2021, so it would have been very surprising if ownership elected to bail on him and pay out an enormous sum of money (especially in a year in which the NFL lost in the billions because of fan-less games). What are the options for ownership going forward regarding the head coaching position? Let’s have a look…
Give him time
Mike Zimmer’s No. 1 defense in 2017 wasn’t built in a day. In fact, you can trace his 2017 defense back to the Vikings drafting Harrison Smith in 2012. It’s common in the NFL for teams to struggle in maintaining great defenses (and to need time to rebuild them). The Seattle Seahawks had the No. 1 defense in points allowed every year from 2012-2015 and No. 3 in 2016. Since then they haven’t ranked in the top 10.
If the organization believes that the path to consistently competing for NFC North titles is through a dominant defense, they will need to give Zimmer leeway to put together his next group and have realistic expectations for next season.
Instead of looking at 2021 similarly to 2017 on the defensive timeline, they would have to look at it more like 2014, where the team has some very talented pieces but wasn’t complete yet. There likely isn’t enough cap space or draft capital for the Vikings to get back to being a top five defense next year.
What it might mean for the offense if Zimmer were to be locked into his job in a Tomlin/Steelers or Carroll/Seahawks manner is hard to say. Would the Vikings eventually move on from Cousins to pour resources into the defense? Would it mean staying with the same QB and same system and aiming to largely build the defense through the draft?
It’s not impossible to work around Cousins’s contract. Remember, in 2017 the Vikings had an expensive QB situation with Sam Bradford but players like Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Xavier Rhodes and Danielle Hunter were still on their rookie deals. If that’s the approach, it will take more than one year.
The biggest benefit for ownership to truly lock into Zimmer for the long haul is that they know exactly what they’re getting and what it takes for a Zimmer team to be highly competitive. Some teams like Pittsburgh who have stuck with their head coach through thick and thin have been rewarded. Others like Cincinnati with Marvin Lewis ended up in a cycle of mediocrity.
The hot seat
The Vikings’ ownership could look at 2021 as a make or break year for Zimmer.
In a bubble, you could argue that the 2020 season ended up with the result you might expect when a team overhauls its defense and loses key players to injury. But in the bigger picture, the Vikings have two playoff wins in seven years.
They have an incredibly expensive quarterback, who they signed to compete for Super Bowls and instead the results have been one playoff berth (as the six seed) in three years and only three regular season victories over teams that finished the season with a winning record since 2018.
Ownership could view 2021 as being far removed from 2017. The situation has changed immensely with the roster, the team’s overall standing in the NFL and the way the league is going. In 2017, the average quarterback rating was 86.9. In just three years, that shot up to 93.6. The average points per game this year was 49.2 whereas in 2017 it was 43.4. Next season could be viewed as a litmus test on whether the defensive-minded head coach is still a good fit for winning in the future.
There’s also the interpersonal element that can’t be ignored. In a piece for his website GoLongTD, former Bleacher Report writer Tyler Dunne laid out in detail some of the bridges that have been burned by the Vikings’ head coach. He included this damning paragraph:
Past co-workers describe the head coach as everything from “a very disgruntled, pissy old man” to “joyless” to “a big blamer” to “an equal-opportunity asshole” to “pissed about everything.” One source close to the team’s inner-workings believes his intensity worked initially with so many young players dying to prove themselves but, as time passed, it became white noise.
“Everything is everyone else’s fault,” this source says. “Or the answer is always, ‘You have to work harder.’ Maybe it’s your scheme. Maybe it’s your stubbornness. Maybe it’s your inability to adjust. Maybe it’s your lack of communication. If you keep bringing Zimmer back and Spielman back and Cousins gets extended for $30 million a year, you’re going to lose the locker room because you’re losing some guys.”
The fact that Stefon Diggs revealed that his issues with the team that ultimately led to a trade to the Buffalo Bills stemmed from Zimmer — and not Kirk Cousins — are another log thrown into the fire of concern over how the head coach has managed people.
It might have been easier to shrug off some relationship issues like what happened with Norv Turner resigning or the cornerbacks disobeying their head coach in 2016 because the following year went so well. However, even in 2017, Zimmer made waves with open criticisms about his quarterback Case Keenum.
All of that might be water under the bridge but it’s possible ownership would factor these things as part of a decision to consider Zimmer on the hot seat next year.
Trade
If the Vikings decided over the weekend that they want to go in a different direction and hire an offensive-minded head coach to play to their biggest strength, they could test the trade waters again.
As many criticisms as there might be regarding Zimmer, he’s been one of the more successful head coaches in the NFL since joining the Vikings in 2014. He was at the helm for the complete turnaround of the team’s defense, culture and overall national relevance. There are numerous teams in need of coaches who have the same needs as the Vikings once did.
With Zimmer under contract for three more years, it makes financial sense to investigate a trade. If the writing is on the wall that he won’t be the right fit for 2021, it also makes sense roster-wise to add an additional draft pick. We don’t see coach trades very often but they normally carry high value for the team trading their coach. The Bucs acquired Jon Gruden for two first-round picks, two second-round picks and $8 million once upon a time.
Why would someone be interested in Zimmer? Because they know what they are getting. Hiring unproven head coaches from the coordinator or college ranks comes along with a great deal of risk and it’s often times very expensive. The Panthers gave Matt Rhule a seven-year, $60 million deal last offseason. That might be something a hiring team is looking to avoid.
The future at head coach
Because the Vikings’ owners are the opposite of Jerry Jones, we don’t have a good feeling for where they stand on Zimmer and the 2021 season. We can only put together the pieces based on the trade rumors last year and the slow negotiations this summer that he may be on rocky ground . His comment that 7-9 was the “best we could have done” came across as an argument that things will turn around next season.
If Zimmer is indeed under pressure for next season, he will have a failproof way to get off the hot seat: Win.
Check out our sponsor SotaStick and their Minnesota-inspired gear by clicking the logo. Use the code PurpleInsider for free shipping
Jerry might still trade for Zimmer after this year lol. 2 pts. I agree Stephanski right have been an excellent head coach for the Vikings however when you look at their skill players and ours it looks like a fair comparison until you get to the O-line... no comparison, Browns O-line makes our O-line look like flag football players. If Zimmer had that O-line, which will never happen because he'd rather draft 80 rated CB than a 90 rated guard or tackle, we would have road graded and pass protected to the point of 7 or 8 points a game better. Cousins would have had enough time to increase JJ's production by another 300 - 500 yards and Theilen another 200 - 400 yds without changing the play calling this year. Cousins would have seen them wide open instead of running for his life or being scared to death of another interception. Love the dialogue and continue to appreciate the analysis :) SKOL Matthew :)
Great read Matt. The last few weeks I have read many articles regarding Zimmer, keep him, fire him, etc...regardless of which point of view the article was written from there is a very disturbing commonality. Both sides agree that Mike Zimmer is a hindrance on the offensive success. Whether it be neglecting the feelings of Diggs, or alienating personnel, handcuffing the play-calling, love him or hate him, he is an anchor for the O. So here is my question for you Mr. Coller because like you, I feel that Zimmer is a good coach and brings something to the table for a team. Why can't he just make necessary changes to his approach when it comes to handling of offensive personnel and offensive scheme? More importantly why is it that I can see it, and you can see it, and many people on this very forum can see it, but people who get paid absurd money to make decisions cannot see it? This is not an x's and o's situation where owners are not going to get involved, this is a situation where all parties can win with the simplest of fixes. You have asked Cronin, Monson, Sirles, probably Eager on the podcast what is the way to fix the vikings and everyone defaults to the same thing, well x,y,z but it won't happen bc of Zimmer and his philosophy. Here is your answer and it comes from Rick and The flying Wilf brothers in a Mafia style sit down. "Mike, we love what you do here with keeping things ordered and respectable, with your work ethic and your defensive creativity, we want to keep you here for the long haul through this roster makeover, but in order for that to happen you have to allow for someone to come in and be creative with our existing scheme and make JJ the focus of the offense. IF you are not ok with this going forward, we have to part ways. Besides, you have enough on your plate with this almost entirely new defense and you need to understand that we expect major improvements with an offseason and players coming back from injury."
I mean at some point if Zimmer is not ready to make some changes or is too proud to or whatever it may be, then that says all you need to know. When the answer is right in front of you and you refuse to see it...