Surplus value may be at odds with Vikings' immediate needs, draft position
Will the Vikings think deeper into the future or fill an immediate need?
By Matthew Coller
Is this just Purple Insider arguing that the Minnesota Vikings should draft a wide receiver again?
OK, yes, but hang on. There’s more to it than that.
This week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba reset the wide receiver market at $42 million per year (though Justin Jefferson still got more guaranteed money). The Seattle Seahawks star is another example of receiver money getting pushed up and up to the point where it is starting to challenge the quarterback position in terms of the advantage that is gained by teams with young players on rookie contracts.
There are generally four levels to second-contract players when it comes to their paychecks. The megastars get top dollar, then there is a second tier of very good starters who come in below the big dogs, then a starter-not-star level and then barely-above-replacement level.
We see this clearly with wide receivers. The top 10 second-contract receivers are making $30-$42 million, then there are 13 receivers making $20-$30 million, 13 receivers making $10-$20 million and then everyone else is either barely hanging on or on rookie deals.
It’s obvious to say that if you have an elite talent like Malik Nabers making an average annual salary of $7.3 million and his performance is worthy of $35-$40 million on a second contract that you have created Surplus Heaven. That’s all gravy dollars that can be spent in free agency while your monster freak star is making less than 25% of what similar players are pulling in.
Where it gets interesting with receiver is that teams don’t even have to pick a Nabers-level star in order to justify their draft pick. Put another way: A team can select a much worse receiver and still get the value out of it versus taking a linebacker or safety or running back.
If you pick a second-tier receiver whose performance is equal to DeVonta Smith or Courtland Sutton, that’s worth $23-$25 million AAV. There are exactly two safeties in the NFL that make more than $23 million and zero linebackers that clear that mark.
If we lower the bar to WR Draft Pick X only ending up as good as Romeo Doubs or Michael Pittman Jr., well, their salaries ($17 million) are above Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker and superstar RB Derrick Henry. They are above newly-paid top linebacker free agent Devin Lloyd and Eagles star Zack Baun and above Packers star safety Xavier McKinney.
And even if you draft a regular old role playing receiver who gets 29 receptions, that’s worth $11.6 million per year (as we learned from Jalen Nailor), which is the same as landing starting RB James Cook, the fifth highest paid center Erik McCoy, the sixth best tight end Dalton Schultz, and twice as much as quality safeties Jaquon Brisker and Jaylinn Hawkins got on the free agent market.
That means that — by pure market standards — drafting the next Jalen Nailor was as as the Buffalo Bills picking Cook, who led the NFL in touchdowns when he negotiated an $11.5 million deal. If you’re sharp enough to say that fully guaranteed money is the only money that matters in the NFL, then you’ll appreciate that Nailor got more fully guaranteed than Cook.
So it’s not just about drafting No. 1 receivers who turn into the next Jefferson or Smith-Njigba, it’s also that filling out the roles is very expensive if they aren’t done in the draft. Getting a mediocre No. 3 receiver in free agency is going to cost as much as landing a high quality starting safety.
But wide receiver isn’t the only position where this applies.
The edge rusher market went a little batty this offseason with Jaelan Phillips, who has never posted double-digit sacks and had major health issues, got $30 million AAV. The top five are over $40 million, then there are 11 edge rushers between $20-$30 million and 13 more between $13-$20 million.
That means that Kwity Paye, who had a 59.0 PFF grade last year and averaged less than 7.0 sacks per 17 games in five years as a Colt is making more than 1,000-snap star linebacker Nick Bolton, last year’s rushing touchdown leader Jonathan Taylor and Falcons Pro Bowl safety Jessie Bates.
Now let’s bring this back to the Vikings.
If we were to rank their most pressing needs on the current roster, edge rusher and wide receiver aren’t at the top (unless they trade Jordan Addison or Jonathan Greenard).
The next highly paid positions are offensive tackle, cornerback and defensive tackle. You could argue that all of those positions are potentially on the table but they still aren’t in the ballpark of pass rushers or receivers.
Top corners are barely starting to crack $30 million while receivers and edge rushers are easily over the $40 million bar. Byron Murphy Jr.’s $18 million per year AAV is 14th highest at his position, whereas that’s equal to Seahawks receiver Rashid Shaheed, whose AAV ranks 29th.
There is only one defensive tackle over $30 million but 14 of them between $20-$30 million.
Similarly for offensive tackle, just one clearing $30 million but 19 (left or right) between $20-$30 million.
Guard is creeping up but the highest paid guard is equal to George Karlaftis, who had 6.0 sacks last year.
That doesn’t exactly prove the Vikings should just draft receiver and/or edge rusher anyway.
The high end salaries aren’t the only way to evaluate this. It’s also about the availability of players at a certain position. Teams who get left out in the cold at offensive tackle are completely screwed. Last year the Titans paid tackle Dan Moore $20 million per year after posting a 67.3 PFF grade and giving up 12 sacks for Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, at cornerback, the Vikings found a top-20 PFF player in Isaiah Rodgers for two years, $11 million.
Offensive tackle is a position that you can’t cover up and its success or failure is rarely based on circumstances. You are either a good tackle, an average tackle or a bad tackle and we don’t see massive year-to-year jumps from those players. Cornerbacks’ performance wildly fluctuates based on competition, scheme and how often they are targeted.
Wide receivers tend to stay good if they are good right away. Edge rushers often take a couple of years to be sure unless they are of the Myles Garrett or Nick Bosa ilk. Safeties are jump into the fray quickly but they can be a product of what’s going on in front of them unless they are exceptional. Defensive tackles tend to integrate quickly and remain at that level for a long time.
Apologies if your head might be spinning to the point where you throw up your hands and just say, “draft the best guy!”
In this situation, that’s totally fair. With the Vikings, you can make an argument that they have so many needs that they just need to get somebody who moves the needle. If it’s Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman and he’s a freaky athlete with great instincts that fits with Brian Flores, then you can say that you’re finding the next Antoine Winfield Jr. and he’s going to be worth the sacrifice for positional value.
At the same time, doing the draft through a keyhole where you are only seeing the immediate needs is how the Vikings once ended up with Garrett Bradbury and Irv Smith Jr. instead of Jeffrey Simmons and AJ Brown (both of whom were taken with the very next pick). Simmons was coming out of college injured and technically they didn’t need a receiver, despite knowing that Stefon Diggs was having issues with the club. Can you imagine if they had just taken the long-term approach and had Thielen-Diggs-Brown and Simmons on the D-line with Danielle Hunter?
It doesn’t always work out that way but the example speaks to the thought process of long versus short term.
If we look just one year down the road, the Vikings might be in a spot where they are losing Jordan Addison, Brian O’Neill, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Aaron Jones and Isaiah Rodgers.
That’s a lot of work to do. Which means that the Vikings should be looking for foundational players for the next five years, not players who can fix one spot right away.
If they believe that the foundational player comes in the form of a running back or safety or inside linebacker rather than the positions that are running away from the rest of the spots in terms of scarcity and price tag, that’s understandable because you want to draft the guys at the top of your board but the multi-year plan has to be a significant factor.
That applies to positional value and it applies to accumulating extra draft capital. Last year the Vikings may have had an opportunity to trade down with Atlanta to pick up a 2026 first-round pick and instead the Los Angeles Rams ended up with that pick. Of course, Donovan Jackson is a very good player who can be a part of the foundation going forward. But if you were approaching the draft with a three-year plan in mind, you wouldn’t take a first-round guard over moving down and picking up an additional first.
The Vikings’ approach to the draft will tell us a lot about where they see their position. While they didn’t sell the farm to sign a handful of free agents, they also didn’t take a true long-term approach to this offseason either. They worked to keep the band 90% together but didn’t chop off major pieces to set up for next year’s cap or (as of yet) trade anyone like Greenard or O’Neill or Van Ginkel that might not be major pieces in the next several seasons.
The timeline that was once laid out is coming to an end and another one is beginning. Will they act accordingly?