SKOL Searching: 40 times and Vikings trade-down scenarios
Paul Hodowanic looks at what 40 times really mean and whether Rick Spielman's old trade-down philosophy should be adopted
By Paul Hodowanic
Well folks, we’ve hit just a slight lull in the draft calendar with the NFL Combine over and most pro days yet to start, but there’s still tons to talk about. Let’s jump in!
Combine 40-yard dash times vs. reality
I love the combine just as much as the next guy but it’s OK to admit there are some flaws. So much of the combine is unordinary. Players have jam-packed days filled with health checks, interviews and media that aren't comparable to what they will do on an NFL Sunday. Then they suit up in compression shirts and shorts and do many drills that don’t directly represent play on the field. Yet we often take a prospect’s athletic testing numbers as gospel. Cooper Kupp ran a 4.63 40-yd dash, so he must run a 4.63 all the time. John Ross ran a 4.22 40-yd dash, so he must be a 4.22 athlete. And their draft position can skyrocket or plummet based on a tenth of a second. The 40-yd dash is the biggest culprit. It is the single athletic testing result that determines draft position most among all Combine testing results.
What is the flaw in that? These athletic tests have tons of variance. So did Cooper Kupp just happen to run an abnormally slow 40-yd time that he was punished for? Or is that actually representative?
PFF’s Timo Riske published a great article addressing testing outliers that discusses this idea. Riske outlines how a 4.45 40-yd dash athlete is just as likely to run a 4.39 as they are a 4.50. And that represents a massive distribution of outcomes. A 4.39 40-yard dash is the 85th percentile for wide receivers, while 4.50 would indicate only a 45th-percentile wide receiver in terms of speed. So how do you know if a prospect’s 40-time accurately assesses if they are a great athlete?
Riske found that if you analyze the 40-times along with several other combine results, you get a more complete answer. For full details, read Riske’s article, but here are some of the combine outliers, both in players that are likely faster than they tested and slower than they tested.
Devin Lloyd is an interesting one from a Vikings perspective. He is a first-round linebacker talent that will likely be available when the Vikings pick. I won’t debate the merits of taking a linebacker right now, but this shows he’s likely faster than he tested.
No likely first-round targets for the Vikings in this group, but still intriguing to look at for later rounds.
This year was also particularly odd when it came to 40 times. The crop of prospects set records, drawing skepticism that the timing function in Indy was done correctly.
The moral of the story? Combine results matter but you have to look beyond just the 40 time.
Should the Vikings trade down?
As observers of the Vikings, we’ve all become intimately familiar with trading in the draft. Former general manager Rick Spielman had a well-documented desire to move around on draft day, trading down frequently to accumulate assets and then occasionally using those assets to trade back up.
Did Spielman have it right? Should the Vikings stick with his trade-down strategy?
First, let’s establish that trading down is considered the more sound draft strategy. The reason is, generally, teams just aren’t great at discerning who is the 15th best prospect and the 25th prospect. PFF did a big breakdown on this a couple years ago, but even anecdotally, let's look at recent draft trades that don’t involve the team trading up taking a QB:
The Philadelphia Eagles traded up two spots from No. 12 to No. 10 to take Devonta Smith. At No. 12, the Dallas Cowboys selected Micah Parsons. Parsons won NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and was named First-Team All-Pro. The Cowboys also got the 84th pick and took EDGE Chauncey Golston.
Just a couple picks later, the Jets traded with the Vikings to take guard Alijah Vera-Tucker at No. 14. The Vikings then sat at No. 23 and got great value in their Christian Darrisaw selection, who appears to be a starting-caliber left tackle. The Vikings also got two third-round picks that ended up being Kellen Mond and Wyatt Davis.
In 2020, the Chargers traded into the first round to take linebacker Kenneth Murray at No. 23. In return, the Patriots got the No. 37 and No. 71 picks. At No. 37 they took safety Kyle Duggar and then used the No. 71 pick in a package to trade up in the second round and select Josh Uche. Murray 34.0 PFF grade last year. Duggar had a 69.7 grade and Uche had a 60.9 grade.
We could do this all day. And it doesn’t mean there aren’t instances when trading up for a non-quarterback has worked. It’s just not as likely.
It also makes sense for the Vikings this year. Two of their biggest needs – defensive line and interior offensive line – will have plenty of depth in the back half of the first round. There will likely be 10-plus defensive linemen picked in the top-50 and many of them showed out at the Combine. The Vikings could slide back several picks and likely still land Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson or Michigan’s David Ojabo, among others. There are also three interior offensive linemen that draft analysts seem to consider first-round talents. Center Tyler Linerbaum is one, but offensive guards Kenyon Green and Zion Johnson are the others. If they found a team in the back half of the first round that wanted pick No. 12, the Vikings could still land one of these guards and have plenty more ammunition for the rest of the draft.
So who are prime candidates to trade with?
Steelers - They need a quarterback. If the Vikings stick with Cousins and decide to go elsewhere in the first round of the draft, the Steelers make a lot of sense.
Saints - Similarly, if the Saints elect to push more and more money down the road in hopes of being competitive, landing a rookie QB and trying to be competitive soon is definitely on the table.
Eagles - Philadelphia has a treasure trove of picks in the middle of the first round – No. 15, 16 and 19. If there’s someone they really like that they are worried could be picked right before them, it would make sense to send one of these picks plus some mid-round compensation for the Vikings’ No. 12. It would also keep the Vikings well within range for a top prospect.
Pro day schedule for top Vikings prospects
With the combine past us, the final time we can see these prospects test is at their pro days. Here’s a look at the pro day schedule for some of the most likely Vikings picks in the first round. Asterisks indicate that we did not see them perform any/very limited tests at the combine.
March 16
Georgia EDGE Travon Walker
Georgia DL Jordan Davis
Georgia linebacker Nakobe Dean*
March 17
Clemson cornerback Andrew Booth Jr.*
March 18
Michigan EDGE David Ojabo
March 19
Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum*
March 21
Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett
March 22
Liberty quarterback Malik Willis*
Texas A&M guard Kenyon Green
March 23
Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral*
March 24
Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner*
Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder
Utah linebacker Devin Lloyd
March 28
North Carolina quarterback Sam Howell*
March 29
Florida State EDGE Jermaine Johnson II
Purdue EDGE George Karlaftis
Washington cornerback Trent McDuffie*
April 6
LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.*
A helpful resource
We’ve already gone pretty in-depth with our other topics this week, so we’re going to keep this one short. I just want to shout out a resource that’s been invaluable for my draft consumption this year with the Vikings in the mix for a quarterback: The QB School.
It’s a YouTube channel run by former NFL quarterback J.T O’Sullivan. He’s done multi-part breakdowns of every quarterback in this class. It’s one thing to read or listen to someone break down the prospects, but to have O’Sullivan narrate over the top of a bunch of quarterback tape has easily been the best way for me to learn about each prospect. If you have some extra time on your hands, I highly recommend checking it out.
Draft sim
As always, let’s end with a draft sim. I decided to try my trade back options in this one. A couple of QBs were gone, so the Steelers and Saints didn’t make much sense but the Patriots were interested in trading. So, I moved back to No. 21 and picked up an extra second and third round pick.
At No. 21, I had my choice of Johnson or either offensive guard. I chose Johnson, determined to add offensive line help later. Once I got to pick No. 44, I wish I hadn’t. There were still tons of really solid EDGE options but not any OL options that were good value. I took a cornerback and then at pick No. 53 many of the EDGE options were STILL there. So I decided to double up. In this scenario, maybe the Vikings are trading away Danielle Hunter.
Then I finally got my OL help and also added another offensive weapon before going back to defense and closing it out with a center. Let me know what you think!
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I like your thought process of passing on an IOL in the first and taking and Edge instead.
I don’t like the idea of an IOL in the first (maybe after pick 24)
Regardless if they keep Cousins or not Quarterback should be their first priority in the first round even if they have to move up to pick Pickett or Willis.