Projecting the Vikings' defense and final roster with Yannick Ngakoue

Who gets cut with the former Jags star in the mix?

Sign up for Purple Insider for $5.40 per month or $56 per year to get in-depth, credentialed access to everything Minnesota Vikings. Photo courtesy of the Jacksonville Jaguars

---

Earlier this offseason, Harrison Smith cracked, “I didn’t know we were supposed to be bad,” when he was asked about a potential slide on defense from the Minnesota Vikings’ usual top-five status.

While nobody suggested the Vikings would be bad in 2020, it was natural to wonder about the potential pitfalls of replacing Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander with less proven players.

The Vikings clearly had some of those fears as well. They made a play at bringing back Griffen (per NFL Network) and then when he signed in Dallas, the Vikings’ front office reeled in a big fish. On Sunday they acquired Yannick Ngakoue from the Jacksonville Jaguars for a second-round pick and a conditional fifth-rounder.

One thing that studies of defense have found is that star power doesn’t always equate to success. Often times the weakest links determine the outcome.

“A defense’s performance in coverage is every bit a function of lesser-regarded players than it is its stars,” PFF’s Eric Eager wrote in a study this summer. “And while the highest-performing pass rusher in a game can be the most important, results there are mixed as well, as the highest-graded pass rusher going into a game is not the one who has the biggest impact on game results from a pass defense perspective.”

On its surface, the trade for Ngakoue would appear to add another star to a defense that still has potential weaknesses. Both starting interior D-linemen are playing different positions from last year and none of the four cornerbacks likely to play most have more than 1,000 career snaps (and two of the four have none).

But the tie-in between the ability to create pressure with more than Danielle Hunter and covering receivers effectively can’t be ignored.

“Any time you have the ability to affect the passing game, either through rushing the quarterback, getting pressure on the quarterback, getting a sack on the quarterback, that definitely has a trickle down effect into how it effects the secondary,” defensive backs coach Daronte Jones said on Sunday. “So we’re all excited as an organization to have that addition. We’re looking forward to him joining us. So I know the guys on the back end, we’re all excited. It’ll be fun.”

It’s a fundamental fact that quarterbacks perform worse under pressure but PFF’s data shows us exactly how much. Spoiler: It’s a lot.

Last year 13 quarterbacks posted QB ratings of over 100 with a clean pocket (and three more were between 99-100). Under pressure only Drew Brees, Ryan Tannehill and Lamar Jackson had higher than 90 QB ratings.

Here’s how the Vikings’ opposing QB schedule performed with and without pressure last year:

Since coming into the league in 2016, Ngakoue has the second most QB pressures in his draft class with 232 and has twice ranked in the top 15 edge rushers in pressure rate. He also has a penitent for big plays with 14 forced fumbles.

Prior to the trade we would have expected much more attention be spent by opposing defenses on Danielle Hunter. Now teams will have to split up their extra blocking help between the two game-wreckers as they did for many years with Hunter-Griffen.

“Typically if you've got two guys, they try to chip with two guys,” head coach Mike Zimmer said.

More running backs and tight ends blocking equates to fewer options for quarterbacks to throw short to checkdowns or hot routes when pressure comes.

Another element of the deal is that the Vikings’ outside rush gain is also their interior rush gain.

If the Vikings were simply replacing Ifeadi Odenigbo, who had 7.0 sacks last year, with Ngakoue, the difference might not be massive in the overall impact on the defense. Odenigbo pressured the QB on 6.2% of snaps and Ngakoue did so on 6.5% of pass rushes. The newest Viking had exactly 1.0 more sacks. But the acquisition now frees up Odenigbo to play a similar role as last year and remain an impact player.

“We’ve used him on the inside on pass rush before,” Zimmer said. “That’s probably a natural progression.”

In 2019, Odenigbo lined up inside on 110 of his 401 total plays, per PFF data.

How much will Ngakoue and the trickle-down effect of the trade matter?

If pressure slows down all quarterbacks and helps boost cornerbacks, the Vikings have an opportunity to perform better in the area most predictive of overall success: Passing efficiency.

San Francisco and Kansas City ranked No. 1 and No. 5, respectively, in net yards per pass attempt allowed on defense and No. 3 and No. 2 in net yards per pass attempt offensively last year.

Until the league has a major shift (which is unlikely any time soon), the route to the Super Bowl goes through the air.

Adding Ngakoue did not make the Vikings a shoe-in for the Super Bowl. It did improve them on multiple levels and shutting down opponents’ air attack. And if everything falls into place, he’ll do that for years to come.

Projecting the 53 with Ngakoue

Quarterbacks — Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion

Running backs — Dalvin Cook, Alex Mattison, Mike Boone, CJ Ham

Wide receivers — Adam Thielen, Bisi Johnson, Justin Jefferson, Tajae Sharpe, Alexander Hollins, KJ Osborn

Tight ends — Kyle Rudolph, Irv Smith Jr., Tyler Conklin

Offensive line starters — Riley Reiff, Dakota Dozier, Garrett Bradbury, Pat Elflein, Brian O’Neill

Offensive line backups — Rashod Hill, Ezra Cleveland, Brett Jones, Oli Udoh, Dru Samia

Defensive line starters — Danielle Hunter, Shamar Stephen, Jaleel Johnson, Yannick Ngakoue

Defensive line backups — Ifeadi Odenigbo, Eddie Yarbrough, Armon Watts, DJ Wonnum, Kenny Willekes, Hercules Mata’afa, James Lynch

Linebackers — Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks, Eric Wilson, Troy Dye, Blake Lynch

Cornerbacks — Holton Hill, Mike Hughes, Cam Dantzler, Jeff Gladney, Kris Boyd

Safeties — Harrison Smith, Anthony Harris, Josh Metellus, Myles Dorn

Specialists — Austin Cutting, Britton Colquitt, Dan Bailey

Changes from the last 53

With Dakota Dozier winning the starting left guard spot, it would make sense for the Vikings to keep Aviante Collins but if the decision comes down to Collins or Ezra Cleveland, the Vikings simply aren’t going to cut their second-round pick. Instead they could put Collins on the practice squad since veterans are allowed this year or look for upgrades elsewhere. They have given Collins every chance since signing him in 2017.

Jalyn Holmes might be a tough cut after playing him first-team snaps during Hunter’s absence throughout camp. But he’s been on the team for two years without any contribution. If players like DJ Wonnum and Kenny Willekes (if healthy) have more upside, they may keep them instead of a player who has had three camps to show something.

The backup safety position is a tough nut to crack. It seems Josh Metellus and Myles Dorn are the leaders for the second pair based on practice reps. A player like Dorn, however, would likely make it through waivers onto the practice squad if needed.

Toughest decisions

— Even after seeing the Vikings’ scrimmage at US Bank Stadium, it’s not clear how the depth receivers will shape up. KJ Osborn appears to be locked into the kick and punt return jobs, so that leaves Tajae Sharpe, Chad Beebe and Alexander Hollins to fight for two or three spots. They rotated during the scrimmage. Sharpe has shown enough to make the team, unlike previous similar signings like Kendall Wright or Jordan Taylor. But that would mean Beebe vs. Hollins and Hollins is younger and more of a deep threat.

— James Lynch didn’t go on the last 53-man roster because he hasn’t stood out in camp. If the Vikings cut Holmes or Eddie Yarbrough now with Ngakoue in the building, they can afford to keep another defensive tackle, even if he’s considered a project.

— Will they cut draft pick Harrison Hand or keep an extra cornerback? Would someone else swoop in and grab Nevelle Clarke after he was a sought-after UDFA?

— The fifth linebacker is an interesting spot. They have played Blake Lynch in spots where you’d expect someone to make the team but the Vikings also brought in Hardy Nickerson from the Bengals so they might want to keep experience.

One additional note

The Vikings wrapped up practices that are open to the media on Sunday. From now on, media can only view the individual portion. We’ll be turning things over to official game week mode soon. That’s a heck of a good feeling after the uncertainty of the offseason.

---

Check out our sponsor SotaStick and their Minnesota-inspired gear by clicking the logo. Use the code PurpleInsider for free shipping