I can’t believe the same people who argued against Kirk Cousins as the answer are now saying we should have kept Sam because he could have been peak Kirk Cousins.
I also feel like we all collectively agreed that if you can’t find an elite QB, you don’t pay them and you try to get a rookie QB. A very good or kinda great QB just hamstrings the organization unless they’re cheap.
Given that frame of mind, it is very easy to see why the Vikings did what they did. The only part of the process I question is how they evaluated McCarthy vs Nix in the draft, and then McCarthy’s readiness to take over this season.
If they knew he wasn’t ready, they should have beaten Indy’s offer for Jones. If they didn’t know he wasn’t ready - yikes.
The problem with this is that Darnold was better than peak Kirk and was not all that expensive. Guy is making just over half what the top QBs are getting.
The Hawks agreed to pay him $37.5, and then have team control for two more years if they want at $27.5 and $35. Darnold wasn't staying in MN for that.
The Vikings' option was the tag at $42 (and all on this year's cap), and then if tagged again, $50+ all on the '27 cap--or an extension in the Love/Lawrence range at low-mid $50s/year.
The context, which also applied to Indiana Jones, matters too: there is value in going to a place where the job is open/there for taking, instead of keeping the seat warm for the 10th overall pick.
They didn’t have to keep JJ, man. If JJ being around was an obstacle to Darnold signing the same contract he signed in Seattle, they could’ve just traded JJ. 42 for a year would not have been the end of the world either.
Leaving aside KAM's body of work re: understanding how to sequence things, let's say he manages to convey to Jimmy Sexton that if Darnold signs an extension, JJMC will be traded. And let's say that Sexton believes him.
In these negotiations, Darnold has just been given an incredible amount of leverage. KAM is going to (or already did) trade the 10th overall pick, for a dubious return, in order to extend Darnold? There is no way that extension comes in below the Love/Lawrence market.
Darnold just had a season where he had 25 TDs and 20 TOs. He was third in interceptions and first in fumbles (despite only 27 sacks). Before the NFCCG the Seahawks went a good 2-3 months making it quite clear they don’t really trust him based on the play calls.
I don’t think they didn’t trust Darnold. They run the ball more, sure. He still threw the ball plenty, had the number one WR in the league, 4k yards, and had top ten numbers in a lot of advanced stats. Sounds like better use of the cap than Hargrave and Allen and Jones to me, man. They pooched it.
I'm already so burnt out on the Darnold and the failed plan discussion. I really wanted them to keep Darnold, more than any fan I've seen, but I also understand how it made perfect sense not to. He didn't want to stay long term and tagging him was also kind of treading water. I honestly don't care that it didn't work this season, but I also don't view NFL football through the myopic view of the long suffering Vikings fan. When I think of the current staff, who are overall excellent by comparison to much if the league, I see them as victims of their own success and expectations. Besides the usual setbacks and attrition of an NFL season, they've been able to coast on overall good baseline of football for several seasons. Offensively they have never had to contend with such poor performance outside of expectation. This year has been a great learning experience for everyone involved, players and coaches alike. Many words have been wasted on the current regime's end, but to me this is where it begins. Now that real, sustained adversity has hit, this is where we actually find out who they are.
KOC and KAM will have had 5 years to build a team that is Super Bowl capable by the end of next season. They already let a QB go who is likely to win the SB in 10 days. Chicago hired a new regime at the same time as KOC and KAM came on board, and their roster and coaching look better than the Vikings. I am out of patience. The Vikings need to win a playoff game next year to show they are on the right track, or we need a new regime.
Sure, that is a perspective you can have. Again, I don't view the team through the myopic lense of a long suffering Vikings fan, and I don't really care what the Bears do. It's more fun if they're good but they're not there yet, so we'll see.
Good points. On the last one, we've found out some of it already, haven't we? It would have been easy for this team to go in the tank, JJ to pull typical WR stuff, the defence to blame the offence and national reports of another schism.
Part of the HC's job is keeping the train on the tracks, and KOC did so despite a lot of adversity.
Yes, not losing the room shows there's something to build on. But the work needs to start now. No more coasting, no more riding the wave. The Bears and Pats will learn a similar lesson that the Vikings pushed off for too long. Initial overachievement means you need to dig deeper so you don't get to where the Vikings ended up now and feeling desperate. I don't buy into the "KOC is arrogant" things, but I think they got too comfortable with winning while underperforming in some measures until it bit them.
I’m not sure how to assess getting too comfortable with winning. The landscape-altering problem is drafting a qb at 10 who can’t stay healthy and is awful on the rare occasions he can suit up.
It happens. Picking players is hard. Hell, whomever is in your tier of top QBs, were any of them the first QB taken in their class? Allen, Mahomes, Jackson and Herbert weren’t.
I probably talked myself into every position at some point during the Darnold vs JJ saga, and ultimately decided to trust KOC’s evaluation, but a few things stuck out to me that had me second guessing the decision at the time. First, Darnold’s entire career to that point showed he was a guy who gets better with experience, so I was not convinced that he wouldn’t just be a calmer, better player the next time he got to the playoffs. Then when they got to spending the Darnold money on other players, they spent a good chunk of it on an old RB and 2 old DTs, both of whom weren’t that great even before their injuries, in a draft year where both of those positions had tons of talent. If you told me I could have a rookie RB and DT, keep Bullard and Phillips, and keep Darnold, I would’ve taken that in a heartbeat. Maybe that doesn’t fully account for the all the money, but it’s not far off.
The sub-plot to the '25 offseason--the roster was bereft of good players on rookie deals, partly because KAM's picks have been subpar, most mostly because KAM gives away draft picks like candy on Hallowe'en.
This was great, Matthew. Thinking about all this I keep coming back to three things:
1. As you've repeatedly pointed out since the end of last season, the list of other QBs to hit the statistical markers and number of wins that Darnold did in '24 is basically a who's-who of awesome players who never "turned back into a pumpkin," as everyone was convinced he had. That alone should've bought him at least another season here, if not a long-term deal.
2. For a supposedly analytical, data-driven braintrust, they seem to bank a lot of their planning and public messaging on hope and the most-optimistic of possible outcomes. Go back to before the '24 draft--they got that extra 1st-rounder based not on solid info or assurances from New England of what type of package they would accept, but the hope that it would end up being enough to go get the guy they really wanted. And then KOC is out there several days before the draft saying that he may or may not be getting ready to thank Kraft (the "send him flowers" line), so everybody starts thinking it's a done deal when they never actually had a shot (or Kwesi was never really willing to do what it took). The plan and messaging around JJ leading up to the '25 season fits that same pattern.
3. Forget the data points that were "incomplete" or ignored (such few passes thrown, only 1st-round QB to ever miss an entire rookie season due to injury), and come back to the eye test, which the Vikings decision makers are highly paid to take on a regular basis. It was obvious from the opening snap in Chicago, from his technique and movements to his physical stature, that JJ did not look ready to play at this level. This isn't to say he never will, and he certainly had his flashes here and there. But I guarantee his teammates noticed this and it probably helps explain some of the (non-Flores-caused) tension in the building early in the season. As your buddy Drew Magary said in his Defector post yesterday about Darnold, they "replaced a man at QB with a little boy."
Point 2 is completely accurate. It was fine to line-up a deal with Houston and pull the trigger once a framework was agreed-upon with the Pats. It was either hubris or stupidity to make the Houston deal first--and wildly overpay in the process.
The fly in the ointment for point 3 is that JJMC did look really, really good in the joint practices with NE--vs a defence that is actually much better than thought at the time. The roster-building dice had been cast at the point, but that was actual evidence that JJMC could do it.
Are we sure this is a good roster--and more pressingly, that this will be a good roster by the first day of the league year, when the team has to be under the cap? We know that cuts are coming.
1. I was looking forward to Darrisaw being a key part of a great offence this year. It would be lovely if he's back to his old self in September, but that's uncertain at best. There is also material risk that O'Neill won't be back (see under the cap/cuts). There's considerable risk of not having both a sublime Darrisaw and O'Neill starting in week 1.
2. Addison was bad this year and suffice it to say his reliability is an issue. Outbidding a WR desperate league for Nailor is perilous. Hocks is only back if he accepts a pay cut (which itself would be telling), and he has yet to look like the guy he was before the injury.
3. The backfield is a strong meh.
4. Maybe Wilson comes back, but it's aggressively optimistic to expect he and Cashman to be as good and as healthy when both are in their 30s. Murphy and Rodgers are fine, the rest of the secondary is something less than fine.
JJ, the 3 edges, Redmond and to a lesser extent Allen are great to good, but that's only six guys and this ain't a NBA team.
Matthew, I love your data driven evaluation of both sides. But you did not mention the arrogance behind the decision from KOC and KAM. They blamed the last two losses in 2024 on Sam, not a game plan that relied on downfield passes when their OLine was not strong. They attributed Sam’s season to coaching and decided he had a miracle year rather than seeing his upward trajectory, while they saw JJ as raw potential they could unlock.
The Vikings have not had a QB who could win a Super Bowl since Year 1 Brett Favre. They had one on the team last season and let him go for nothing. Maybe JJ gets there someday, but it does not look good at the moment. I am rooting for Sam, but I am depressed about the likely scenario of the Vikings stuck in the QB desert for another 5+ years.
KOC and KAM need to win a playoff game next year, or we need a new regime that makes better decisions. They both deserve to be fired.
Isn’t it just as easy as why would Darnold have come back here? McCarthy was always going to be waiting in the wings - They didn’t know Darnold would pan out in this way prior to drafting McCarthy. Why would Darnold come back to a situation where he’s looking over his shoulder? A real fresh start with a team that wanted him as QB1. Easy decision in my book and I don’t really fault anyone.
They could’ve just tagged him for a year. Also could’ve just traded JJ for picks. You might look a little stupid bailing on him before seeing him take a snap and probably getting less back in return than what you spent, but this is where worrying about looking stupid gets you.
It is a little surprising--across all platforms--how this point has been glossed over in offseason coverage.
If there is a precedent for someone missing games (and the extent of it--six weeks for a high ankle sprain?) with this many different injuries in such a short career, I'd love to see it.
I can’t believe the same people who argued against Kirk Cousins as the answer are now saying we should have kept Sam because he could have been peak Kirk Cousins.
I also feel like we all collectively agreed that if you can’t find an elite QB, you don’t pay them and you try to get a rookie QB. A very good or kinda great QB just hamstrings the organization unless they’re cheap.
Given that frame of mind, it is very easy to see why the Vikings did what they did. The only part of the process I question is how they evaluated McCarthy vs Nix in the draft, and then McCarthy’s readiness to take over this season.
If they knew he wasn’t ready, they should have beaten Indy’s offer for Jones. If they didn’t know he wasn’t ready - yikes.
The problem with this is that Darnold was better than peak Kirk and was not all that expensive. Guy is making just over half what the top QBs are getting.
The wrinkle is that the Vikings would have had to pay a lot more to keep Darnold than what the Seahawks did to land him.
Why would you say that?
The Hawks agreed to pay him $37.5, and then have team control for two more years if they want at $27.5 and $35. Darnold wasn't staying in MN for that.
The Vikings' option was the tag at $42 (and all on this year's cap), and then if tagged again, $50+ all on the '27 cap--or an extension in the Love/Lawrence range at low-mid $50s/year.
The context, which also applied to Indiana Jones, matters too: there is value in going to a place where the job is open/there for taking, instead of keeping the seat warm for the 10th overall pick.
They didn’t have to keep JJ, man. If JJ being around was an obstacle to Darnold signing the same contract he signed in Seattle, they could’ve just traded JJ. 42 for a year would not have been the end of the world either.
Absolutely, but negotiations are about leverage.
Leaving aside KAM's body of work re: understanding how to sequence things, let's say he manages to convey to Jimmy Sexton that if Darnold signs an extension, JJMC will be traded. And let's say that Sexton believes him.
In these negotiations, Darnold has just been given an incredible amount of leverage. KAM is going to (or already did) trade the 10th overall pick, for a dubious return, in order to extend Darnold? There is no way that extension comes in below the Love/Lawrence market.
Darnold just had a season where he had 25 TDs and 20 TOs. He was third in interceptions and first in fumbles (despite only 27 sacks). Before the NFCCG the Seahawks went a good 2-3 months making it quite clear they don’t really trust him based on the play calls.
I don’t think they didn’t trust Darnold. They run the ball more, sure. He still threw the ball plenty, had the number one WR in the league, 4k yards, and had top ten numbers in a lot of advanced stats. Sounds like better use of the cap than Hargrave and Allen and Jones to me, man. They pooched it.
We would have had to franchise him. We offered him one year at similar money and he smartly chose Seattle.
I suppose we could have copied Seattle’s offer and traded McCarthy, but almost no one would have said that was a smart move at the time.
I don’t know about nobody, but the fanbase would’ve lost their minds for sure. Fans always want to see what’s behind door number 2.
That’s what annoys me the most. Darnold is basically Kirk with a much shorter resume. 1 good year. Even this year he was an extremely average QB.
I'm already so burnt out on the Darnold and the failed plan discussion. I really wanted them to keep Darnold, more than any fan I've seen, but I also understand how it made perfect sense not to. He didn't want to stay long term and tagging him was also kind of treading water. I honestly don't care that it didn't work this season, but I also don't view NFL football through the myopic view of the long suffering Vikings fan. When I think of the current staff, who are overall excellent by comparison to much if the league, I see them as victims of their own success and expectations. Besides the usual setbacks and attrition of an NFL season, they've been able to coast on overall good baseline of football for several seasons. Offensively they have never had to contend with such poor performance outside of expectation. This year has been a great learning experience for everyone involved, players and coaches alike. Many words have been wasted on the current regime's end, but to me this is where it begins. Now that real, sustained adversity has hit, this is where we actually find out who they are.
KOC and KAM will have had 5 years to build a team that is Super Bowl capable by the end of next season. They already let a QB go who is likely to win the SB in 10 days. Chicago hired a new regime at the same time as KOC and KAM came on board, and their roster and coaching look better than the Vikings. I am out of patience. The Vikings need to win a playoff game next year to show they are on the right track, or we need a new regime.
Sure, that is a perspective you can have. Again, I don't view the team through the myopic lense of a long suffering Vikings fan, and I don't really care what the Bears do. It's more fun if they're good but they're not there yet, so we'll see.
Good points. On the last one, we've found out some of it already, haven't we? It would have been easy for this team to go in the tank, JJ to pull typical WR stuff, the defence to blame the offence and national reports of another schism.
Part of the HC's job is keeping the train on the tracks, and KOC did so despite a lot of adversity.
Yes, not losing the room shows there's something to build on. But the work needs to start now. No more coasting, no more riding the wave. The Bears and Pats will learn a similar lesson that the Vikings pushed off for too long. Initial overachievement means you need to dig deeper so you don't get to where the Vikings ended up now and feeling desperate. I don't buy into the "KOC is arrogant" things, but I think they got too comfortable with winning while underperforming in some measures until it bit them.
I’m not sure how to assess getting too comfortable with winning. The landscape-altering problem is drafting a qb at 10 who can’t stay healthy and is awful on the rare occasions he can suit up.
It happens. Picking players is hard. Hell, whomever is in your tier of top QBs, were any of them the first QB taken in their class? Allen, Mahomes, Jackson and Herbert weren’t.
I probably talked myself into every position at some point during the Darnold vs JJ saga, and ultimately decided to trust KOC’s evaluation, but a few things stuck out to me that had me second guessing the decision at the time. First, Darnold’s entire career to that point showed he was a guy who gets better with experience, so I was not convinced that he wouldn’t just be a calmer, better player the next time he got to the playoffs. Then when they got to spending the Darnold money on other players, they spent a good chunk of it on an old RB and 2 old DTs, both of whom weren’t that great even before their injuries, in a draft year where both of those positions had tons of talent. If you told me I could have a rookie RB and DT, keep Bullard and Phillips, and keep Darnold, I would’ve taken that in a heartbeat. Maybe that doesn’t fully account for the all the money, but it’s not far off.
The sub-plot to the '25 offseason--the roster was bereft of good players on rookie deals, partly because KAM's picks have been subpar, most mostly because KAM gives away draft picks like candy on Hallowe'en.
This was great, Matthew. Thinking about all this I keep coming back to three things:
1. As you've repeatedly pointed out since the end of last season, the list of other QBs to hit the statistical markers and number of wins that Darnold did in '24 is basically a who's-who of awesome players who never "turned back into a pumpkin," as everyone was convinced he had. That alone should've bought him at least another season here, if not a long-term deal.
2. For a supposedly analytical, data-driven braintrust, they seem to bank a lot of their planning and public messaging on hope and the most-optimistic of possible outcomes. Go back to before the '24 draft--they got that extra 1st-rounder based not on solid info or assurances from New England of what type of package they would accept, but the hope that it would end up being enough to go get the guy they really wanted. And then KOC is out there several days before the draft saying that he may or may not be getting ready to thank Kraft (the "send him flowers" line), so everybody starts thinking it's a done deal when they never actually had a shot (or Kwesi was never really willing to do what it took). The plan and messaging around JJ leading up to the '25 season fits that same pattern.
3. Forget the data points that were "incomplete" or ignored (such few passes thrown, only 1st-round QB to ever miss an entire rookie season due to injury), and come back to the eye test, which the Vikings decision makers are highly paid to take on a regular basis. It was obvious from the opening snap in Chicago, from his technique and movements to his physical stature, that JJ did not look ready to play at this level. This isn't to say he never will, and he certainly had his flashes here and there. But I guarantee his teammates noticed this and it probably helps explain some of the (non-Flores-caused) tension in the building early in the season. As your buddy Drew Magary said in his Defector post yesterday about Darnold, they "replaced a man at QB with a little boy."
Point 2 is completely accurate. It was fine to line-up a deal with Houston and pull the trigger once a framework was agreed-upon with the Pats. It was either hubris or stupidity to make the Houston deal first--and wildly overpay in the process.
The fly in the ointment for point 3 is that JJMC did look really, really good in the joint practices with NE--vs a defence that is actually much better than thought at the time. The roster-building dice had been cast at the point, but that was actual evidence that JJMC could do it.
Trusting the process worked out great for Sam Hinkie and the 76ers. Why, they’ve won multiple NBA titles this past decade!
Are we sure this is a good roster--and more pressingly, that this will be a good roster by the first day of the league year, when the team has to be under the cap? We know that cuts are coming.
1. I was looking forward to Darrisaw being a key part of a great offence this year. It would be lovely if he's back to his old self in September, but that's uncertain at best. There is also material risk that O'Neill won't be back (see under the cap/cuts). There's considerable risk of not having both a sublime Darrisaw and O'Neill starting in week 1.
2. Addison was bad this year and suffice it to say his reliability is an issue. Outbidding a WR desperate league for Nailor is perilous. Hocks is only back if he accepts a pay cut (which itself would be telling), and he has yet to look like the guy he was before the injury.
3. The backfield is a strong meh.
4. Maybe Wilson comes back, but it's aggressively optimistic to expect he and Cashman to be as good and as healthy when both are in their 30s. Murphy and Rodgers are fine, the rest of the secondary is something less than fine.
JJ, the 3 edges, Redmond and to a lesser extent Allen are great to good, but that's only six guys and this ain't a NBA team.
Matthew, I love your data driven evaluation of both sides. But you did not mention the arrogance behind the decision from KOC and KAM. They blamed the last two losses in 2024 on Sam, not a game plan that relied on downfield passes when their OLine was not strong. They attributed Sam’s season to coaching and decided he had a miracle year rather than seeing his upward trajectory, while they saw JJ as raw potential they could unlock.
The Vikings have not had a QB who could win a Super Bowl since Year 1 Brett Favre. They had one on the team last season and let him go for nothing. Maybe JJ gets there someday, but it does not look good at the moment. I am rooting for Sam, but I am depressed about the likely scenario of the Vikings stuck in the QB desert for another 5+ years.
KOC and KAM need to win a playoff game next year, or we need a new regime that makes better decisions. They both deserve to be fired.
Good analysis. Hopefully things work out for the best. I love the entertainment the Vikings provide. I wouldn't enjoy being a Jets or Titans fan.
Isn’t it just as easy as why would Darnold have come back here? McCarthy was always going to be waiting in the wings - They didn’t know Darnold would pan out in this way prior to drafting McCarthy. Why would Darnold come back to a situation where he’s looking over his shoulder? A real fresh start with a team that wanted him as QB1. Easy decision in my book and I don’t really fault anyone.
They could’ve just tagged him for a year. Also could’ve just traded JJ for picks. You might look a little stupid bailing on him before seeing him take a snap and probably getting less back in return than what you spent, but this is where worrying about looking stupid gets you.
Well said.
Having said all that, “the best ability is availability.” That is the elephant in the room.
It is a little surprising--across all platforms--how this point has been glossed over in offseason coverage.
If there is a precedent for someone missing games (and the extent of it--six weeks for a high ankle sprain?) with this many different injuries in such a short career, I'd love to see it.