On paper, which veteran quarterback is the best fit for O'Connell?

Looking into key staples of the KOC offense statistically and whether any QB who is potentially available matches up

Jan 17, 2026; Seattle, WA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Mac Jones (10) rolls out against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half in an NFC Divisional Round game at Lumen Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

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By Matthew Coller

We know that the Minnesota Vikings are going to look to add to their quarterback room to create a “highly competitive” environment for JJ McCarthy. But which QB they plan on chasing — assuming it isn’t Joe Burrow — is hard to figure. So let’s take a look under the microscope at some key areas where Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold thrived in their successful seasons under O’Connell and see if we can find similarities between them and the potentially-available QBs on the market…

Deep and intermediate passing

Over the years, O’Connell has repeatedly used the phrase “hunt explosives” when it comes to the Vikings’ passing game. Nobody hunted them more than Sam Darnold in 2024 when he threw for 1,192 yards on 68 passes that traveled more than 20 yards through the air, per PFF. That was No. 1 in the NFL.

Darnold was also very strong as an intermediate passer, racking up the eighth most yards on throws that traveled between 10-19 yards. Darnold also ranked 12th in the percentage of passes that he threw in the intermedia area of the field (23.1%).

The most comparable potentially available QB to Darnold’s downfield throwing is Geno Smith.

Clearly the 2025 season was a disaster for the ex-Jet and Seahawks but in 2024 was PFF’s third highest graded passer on throws that went 20+ yards and he had the third highest completion percentage (46.1%) on such passes. Smith’s prolific deep throwing in 2024 also included a remarkable stat: Out of 65 deep attempts, he only had three Turnover-Worthy Plays, good for the sixth best TWP rate on deep throws.

Smith’s numbers were OK when it came to intermediate passing, ranking 13th by PFF grade but he ranked 30th in percentage of throws between 10-19 yards. It’s not clear whether that was based on Smith’s own decision making or the offense. He ended up, concerningly, ranking 33rd of 43 in TWP% on intermediate throws.

Still, his completion percentage ended up in the top half of the league and in 2023 Smith was in the top 15 in completion percentage, PFF grade and QB rating on intermediate throws. In 2022, Smith had a 99.3 PFF grade on deep passes.

When it comes to comparable QBs to Kirk Cousins’ downfield passing, more of the focus has to be on intermediate throws because Cousins did not push the ball deep anywhere near as much as Darnold. That’s why the idea that O’Connell’s offense is something out of Joe Namath’s playbook might be a bit of a misnomer.

Cousins in 2022 ranked 28th of 40 and was 39th of 40 in 2023 in terms of percentage of throws traveling 20+ yards.

He was 12th and 5th in percentage of throws between 10-19 yards, however. In 2023, Cousins was downright fantastic when it came to working the ball into spaces in front of safeties, racking up 10.6 yards per pass attempt (9th) and the fifth best PFF grade.

Can we find any prospective QBs who were also good at intermediate passing?

One that stands out is 49ers quarterback Mac Jones. In a small sample, he was 7th in the percentage of 10-19 distance throws per attempt and he was 14th by PFF grade and third in completion percentage.

Because of Jones’ assorted history of bad coaches and bizarre situations, it’s difficult to know what to make of any of his seasons past his rookie year. But in 2021 he had passable intermediate numbers, ranking 20th of 37 and 21st in completion percentage. He also had the third lowest turnover-worthy play rate on those types of passes.

The former Patriot, Jaguar and 49er’s stats from 2021 and 2025 pass the smell test more than the seasons he struggled as an intermediate passer because that was the expectation when he was coming out of college at Alabama. He was often compared to Kirk Cousins in terms of playing style and accuracy over arm strength.

How about other QBs who shine on deep balls or intermediate throws that the Vikings could potentially target?

Deep throws…

Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers graded 25th on deep throws but was 14th in completion percentage, fifth in touchdowns and 16th in percentage of passes traveling 20+ yards.

It’s a very small sample size but Green Bay’s Malik Willis went 7-for-7 on 20+ throws in 2025 and 6-for-8 downfield in 2024.

Indy’s Daniel Jones ranked 12th in deep completion percentage

Washington’s Marcus Mariota didn’t have a big sample of deep throws (37) but he did grade well, ranking 10th with the fifth highest Big-Time Throw percentage.

Intermediate throws…

Cardinals QB Kyler Murray ranked 11th by PFF grade in 2024 and finished with the 11th most intermediate passing yards and the third highest Big-Time Throw rate on passes between 10-19. However, Murray’s deep passing only graded 25th by PFF.

Houston Texans backup Davis Mills ranked 17th by PFF grade and went 21-for-37 passing.

Throwing over the middle

One thing that Cousins and Darnold had in common was successfully throwing the ball over the middle under KOC.

In 2023, per PFF, Cousins went 29-for-40 with 7 TDs and 1 INT on throws that traveled over 10 yards down the middle of the field. In 2024, Darnold completed 58 of 97 such throws with 8 TDs and 4 INTs.

Were there any candidates who shined over the middle?

2024 Geno Smith was an absolute monster attacking the middle in 2024, posting a 92.1 PFF grade and completing 71.2% of his passes in the 10-19 yards downfield range. He was a beast in 2023 going 22-for-29 with a 91.3 PFF grade.

Mac Jones again shows up with 32-for-46 passing over the middle beyond 10 yards and an 85% completion percentage on short middle throws. The intermediate middle is one area that he’s been consistently decent-to-strong since his rookie year, registering PFF grades of 80.8, 85.7, 70.6, 74.1 and 82.4.

You can see why Daniel Jones was on KOC’s list as an option last year. He scored a 85.4 PFF grade on intermediate middle passes, going 36-for-51. It also made up 15% of his passes.

Surprisingly 2024 Kyler Murray landed in this category as well, registering a 87.8 PFF grade on intermediate throws into the middle of the field, going 30-for-41 in 2024. In 2021, his best season, his grade was an outstanding 93.0, completing 80% of his passes. The issue for Murray is that middle throws downfield only made up about 10% of his passes in 2021 and 8% in 2024. Could O’Connell coax him into striking in the center more or is his height too much of a challenge to make that happen consistently?

Aaron Rodgers only threw 10% of his passes over the middle beyond 10 yards but did have a lot of success, going 26-for-47 with 8 TDs and 3 INTs.

Marcus Mariota was stunningly good throwing to the middle in 2025, hitting 30-of-46 throws over 10 yards with a 91.9 PFF grade on intermediate passes.

Kirk Cousins was passable last year with a 77.2 PFF grade on 27 intermediate middle throws and he only attempted seven deep passes down the middle.

Davis Mills had very small sample success, going 9-for-14 on middle intermediate passes.

Crazy stat: Malik Willis has thrown three passes in the middle past 10 yards over the last two years.

Under center

So there’s quite a few QBs on the list who have between decent and good ability to attack the middle of the field while pushing the ball for explosive plays. How do we know if they fit within the way O’Connell wants to play?

Per Pro Football Reference, Cousins was under center on 31% of his attempts on 2023 and Darnold was under center 28% of his attempts.

How do the other prospective QBs stack up?

Malik Willis — 31%

Mac Jones — 25%

2024 Kyler Murray — 22%

Daniel Jones — 22%

Aaron Rodgers — 17%

Davis Mills — 21%

2024 Geno Smith — 11%

Marcus Mariota — 11%

The one that stands out here as surprising is 2024 Kyler Murray was under center as much as he was. Murray actually ranked 8th in play-action percentage as well. He ranked 11th in play-action PFF grade and threw for the 5th most play-action yards.

Not surprising is that 2024 Geno Smith was a pure shotgun thrower. He was 37th in play-action percentage. Those things diverge from typical KOC offense.

Not a shock either is Mac Jones producing the 6th best play-action PFF grade in San Francisco.

Sack avoidance and mobility

The Vikings have struggled mightily with allowing sacks under KOC. They have the 5th most sacks allowed since he took over as head coach in 2022 and 3rd in sack yardage lost.

The success of the next QB may hinge on their ability to avoid sacks. How do our prospective QBs stack up?

Here’s how they scored in pressure-to-sack ratio:

Aaron Rodgers — 21.0%

2024 Geno Smith — 19.9%

Marcus Mariota — 18.2%

Mac Jones — 17.9%

2024 Kyler Murray — 16.7%

Davis Mills — 14.8%

Daniel Jones — 14.6%

Malik Willis — 13.0%

Kirk Cousins — 12.6%

As much as Geno Smith’s arm talent shines in a lot of his data, his sack numbers are mortifying. He was taken down 50 times in 2024 and 55 times with a poor Raiders offensive line in 2025.

Rodgers’ pressure-to-sack rate looks much worse than his actual sacks. Because he got the ball out so quickly, he was only sacked 29 times.

The same thing can be said for Mac Jones, whose sack percentage was only 5.2% but he’s short on the ability to scramble.

Malik Willis hasn’t faced a lot of pressure overall because of his lack of playing time but his mobility to run away from sacks has to be intriguing.

Skill sets, X-factors

If we were attempting to rank the quarterbacks by how they best fit in O’Connell’s offense based on intermediate and downfield passing, under-center pass attempts and sack avoidance, there is no clear winner.

Assuming Geno Smith was more of a victim of a bad Raiders team and he still has his 2024 arm talent, he is the clear winner as a pure thrower. No other quarterback was particularly close at checking off the deep and intermediate boxes and he was outstanding at times in Seattle at throwing the ball over the middle.

The downside to Smith in KOC’s offense is that he almost never lines up under center, doesn’t run play-action very often and struggles to avoid sacks. For an offense that wants to improve in the run game, it might be tough to have a QB who isn’t experienced at playing under center.

On the other hand, it’s possible that Smith would be helped by more under-center reps.

It isn’t a difficult sell to believe that Mac Jones could do a 2022/2023 Kirk Cousins impression. Having been with the 49ers, he understands the play-action game and can effectively work the middle of the field in the intermediate areas. He is an “anticipation thrower” because he doesn’t have top-notch arm strength and he isn’t take sacks at an unusually high rate.

The downside is that pushing the ball downfield on deep shots the way Darnold did in 2024 isn’t going to be possible with Jones. The Vikings would have to play more of a possession game, run the ball exceptionally well, improve on their screen game, put together longer drives and rely on their defense. That did work at times when Cousins was under center but it does deviate from how O’Connell has wanted to play.

Kyler Murray’s numbers look quite a bit different than you’d think from his time with Kliff Kingsbury. He was more of a play-action, under-center QB with Drew Petzing and he worked the intermediate areas well. However, it is a concern that he might not be able to hang in the pocket and wait for the reads to present themselves as Darnold and Cousins did.

The major concern would be Murray’s personality and leadership. It hasn’t been any secret that he struggled in those areas during his time with the Cardinals. Could KOC’s culture make him a fit? Or could he take apart what’s been built?

Is it worth the risk? It very well might be considering the stakes and the other QB options.

Aaron Rodgers threw downfield occasionally and could still huck a pigskin well but he mostly ran a please-don’t-hit-me offense, getting rid of the ball extremely quickly and then taking sacks any time the opposing defense approached him.

There’s no doubt that he could make the throws in KOC’s offense but would he be willing to take the punishment that seems to come along with it? Would he be willing to actually run it or would he change everything on the fly and make it his offense?

Daniel Jones did not have great intermediate or deep passing grades with the Colts and it’s clear that some of his success was smoke and mirrors because of Jonathan Taylor’s dominance on the ground. But he wasn’t a sack machine as he had been in the past and his intermediate passing was serviceable. Is that going to be enough to make a difference? Or could they squeeze a bit more out of him in this offense?

Malik Willis is a total wild card. He’s thrown so few passes that we have no idea whether he can keep up what he did in a tiny sample with Green Bay. The fact that he basically never threw the ball in the middle of the field might be telling that it would be a huge learning curve. On the other hand, his arm strength, athleticism and experience playing under center on LaFleur’s QB school could make for a workable offense around his strengths (if O’Connell wants to adjust to them).

Kirk Cousins played like a watered down version of Kirk Cousins last year with Atlanta. He rarely threw the ball downfield and wasn’t too great or poor when he did so. He didn’t take sacks at the same rate from his Minnesota days, seeming to protect himself better from taking too many hits. He knows the offense inside and out but does the ball still have enough velocity to get there? Is the upside there?

Marcus Mariota has some interesting data. Since he left Tennessee, he has an 89.9 QB rating and 31 TDs to 18 INTs and averages 7.5 YPA. He’s known O’Connell since he was coming out in the draft, so the connection could be interesting. But can he perform consistently enough to lead the Vikings back to the playoffs? Or has he settled into a backup role? You do have to wonder if Washington had any defense last year if he would have done much better than 2-6 as a starter. Still, it feels like a limited upside move.

If the Vikings were going to commit to a super conservative offense, Davis Mills would be a pretty good fit. He can execute some throws over the middle and doesn’t take many sacks but he also can’t put the team on his back if called upon.

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