More WR3? How Klint Kubiak could open up the offense
If Klint Kubiak uses three receivers more often, these could be the ripple effects
By Sam Ekstrom
The assumption goes that anybody bearing the last name Kubiak is bound to run the same offense as the family patriarch. Coaching trees are like family trees, and the scheme is like a coat of arms. When the two trees intersect like they have with new Vikings offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, some might think that any variance from the system will result in estrangement and an eventual sit-down interview with Oprah Winfrey (sorry, I had to).
The reality is we don’t know a lot about the younger Kubiak, who’s never had a job as front-facing as the one he’ll have in 2021. In his limited media sessions since joining the Vikings coaching staff in 2019, Kubiak gave off a shy persona, though current players have said he has a good command of the meeting room. A recent Star Tribune story contained glowing quotes from former coworkers lauding him for his work ethic, saying he’s “a grinder,” “outworks everybody” and several variations of “works his butt off.” None of that, however, tells us whether Kubiak will alter one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL now that he’s taken the reins from Gary Kubiak, his retired father.
“I do know Klint is a very bright football coach that has some very creative ideas,” general manager Rick Spielman said in a press conference last Wednesday.” I think he’s going to take what we were able to accomplish last year and put his own little version of it.”
The extremes of the Vikings’ offense have been well-documented. Since Gary Kubiak started helping Kevin Stefanski craft the team’s offense in 2019, the Vikings have used three-wide-receiver sets less than 30% of the time. For reference, only six teams last season were below 50%, and the Vikings were in last by 9% — 116 fewer snaps than Tennessee, who came in 31st. (One of those six teams was the Arizona Cardinals, who were only low on 3-WR sets because they ran 4-WR sets so often.)
Among non-playoff teams — aka, teams without the luxury of sitting on many fourth-quarter leads — only the Cardinals and Patriots rushed the ball more than the Vikings, and they had mobile quarterbacks that carried it over 130 times each. Minnesota rushed it the most in the league on second-and-short and the fifth-most on second-and-long instead of taking shots with their two elite receivers. Dalvin Cook ended the year with more touches per game than Derrick Henry.
It was hard to complain about the Vikings’ methodology in 2019 when they had a better defense and won 10 games, but it was frustrating to see little adaptation in 2020 as losses mounted. For what it’s worth, Kubiak has worked on coaching staffs outside of his father’s influence for more years than he’s worked with him. He learned the Air Raid offense during his time in the Big 12 with Texas A&M and later Kansas. He also picked up Norv Turner’s Air Coryell in 2014 during his first stint with the Vikings.
We also know that Mike Zimmer loves the current scheme and believes it behooves Cousins to emphasize the run game and play-action opportunities. So no, the Vikings aren’t becoming an Air Raid team under Klint Kubiak, and his close relationship with his father will almost ensure some level of continuity to what the Vikings have been running.
The most sensible adjustment is a higher frequency of three-receiver sets that puts more downfield weapons at Cousins’ disposal and gives the offense more explosive potential. Let’s take a look at how this realistic tweak could play out.
Opening the field on second and third down
The league average for three-receivers sets was 60% last season, and the Vikings were the clear outlier at 29%. Climbing halfway to the league average would put them about where Kevin Stefanski had the Browns last year at 44%, and it’s safe to say things worked out nicely for Cleveland. That’s also the same percentage as Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers, who made the Super Bowl with a wide zone scheme the year prior.
The best way for the Vikings to recalibrate the percentages would be to steal from their “12” personnel sets last year (one back, two tight ends), which Minnesota ran 22% of the time. It would be preferable to pull from that grouping rather than “21” (two backs, one tight end) because good things happened last year when C.J. Ham was on the field. The Vikings passed it 2.6 yards further per attempt (10.5 vs. 7.9) in “21” versus “12,” and they rushed it a full yard better (5.2 versus 4.2).
Moving to more “11” personnel this season means less Tyler Conklin, more whoever-your-WR3-is. That could be a Keelan Cole-type player in free agency, a mid-round draft pick or a first-round splash. Who knows. No offense to Conklin, but there will be more big-play possibilities with a true receiver on the field in those instances.
Even on third down last year, the Vikings used three wide receivers 20% below the league average at 56%. Getting to the league average of 76% would only require about three additional plays per game. Achieving league average “11” personnel on second down — which the Vikings rarely did last year — would require an extra five plays per game with a third receiver. Total, we’ve added eight more plays per game with three receivers.
Got all that?
If the Vikings stick to their normal 60ish% pass rate in those situations and throw it five out of those eight times per game, that gives them 80 more throws over the course of the season where Jefferson, Thielen or third-receiver-du-jour are all available options. That doesn’t necessarily mean 80 additional passes than last year — just 80 more passes with better athletes at Cousins’ disposal.
If that third wide receiver is Chad Beebe again, the Vikings would seemingly be limiting their offensive ceiling. Naturally, more passing to more receivers becomes more appealing if the Vikings’ select a receiver high in the draft; someone like Devonta Smith, who analyst Daniel Jeremiah mocked to the Vikings. Chris Trapasso joined Matthew Coller on Monday’s Purple Insider Podcast and laid out what a game-changer Smith could be.
“I think DeVonta Smith would move the needle more than any other Vikings draft pick in 2021, 2022, 2023,” Trapasso said. “You could draft Vera-Tucker, you’d have a good guard and maybe Dalvin Cook is happy but.. a lot of the good offenses have a litany of weapons. You could say let’s wait until the third or fourth round for a wide receiver but a first-round receiver in DeVonta Smith would be more impactful on a week-to-week basis and a yearly basis for the Vikings than any edge rusher and any interior blocker or offensive tackle.”
More dropbacks with subpar protection
There’s potentially a negative side to this change that could leave Cousins more vulnerable than he already is to pressure.
Cousins’ sack rate, in Captain Obvious fashion, correlates strongly with how good his offensive line is at pass blocking. In 2015-16 — his first two years as a starter — Washington had lines that ranked seventh and 15th in pass blocking, per Pro Football Focus, and Cousins had a pleasantly low sack rate of 4.1%. In the four years since, his lines have graded 26th of worse in pass blocking, and his sack rate has risen to 6.6% in those seasons. Despite an uptick in mobility last year, Cousins still succumbed to sacks at the 12th-highest rate in the league.
Without marked improvement in protection, more Cousins dropbacks could yield more sacks and a greater risk of fumbles, which remains Cousins’ kryptonite. There is no evidence, though, to suggest that Cousins would suddenly become a reckless thrower of interceptions with greater volume. In his first four seasons as a starter when he had over 540 passes per year, Cousins threw between 10-13 interceptions with a 2.0% interception rate. That’s the same interception rate he posted each of the last two seasons with many fewer throws. Adding another 50 throws to Cousins’ total would translate to one extra interception, three sacks, maybe an extra fumble and 45 throws to your robust receiving corps. At 8.3 yards per attempt, that’s almost 400 yards of offense.
If recent history has shown us anything about Cousins, it’s that trying to handle him with kid gloves isn’t necessarily the way to go, and if anything it makes him play more hesitantly. Cousins is imperfect, but giving him more responsibility will not cause him to short-circuit and should not prevent the Vikings from running an effective play-action game.
Klint Kubiak was one of the primary coaches credited with extracting the extra mobility from Cousins in 2020. If that trend continues under Kubiak’s watch in 2021, we could see more improvisation from the quarterback if he receives more dropbacks.
The disconnect is still the offensive line, which has proven over and over to not be equipped to handle a heavy pass-blocking load. Zimmer and Kubiak loved the run game the last two years, don’t get me wrong, but the Vikings’ decision to lean so heavily on Cook is also a symptom of their blockers’ inability to pass protect.
Opening up the passing game may hang the offensive line, as presently constructed, out to dry. It’s incumbent on the front office to improve it, but also on the coaching staff to recognize that Cousins is A) Accurate under pressure, B) Improving in his mobility, and C) Durable. May as well take the training wheels off the (checks notes) 32-year-old quarterback to try and capitalize on Prime Thielen and Cheap Jefferson. If Cousins can’t handle it, that tells you all you need to know.
Fewer reps for Dalvin
Skewing more toward the passing game will inevitably take the ball out of Cook’s hands, yes. But that shouldn’t be thought of negatively. In a story I wrote at Zone Coverage in January, I broke down Cook’s performance in the second halves of the last two seasons. His yards per carry dropped from 5.6 in first halves to 3.9 in second halves, in large part because of nagging injuries he tried to play through. Furthermore, he became just the eighth running back in a decade to get 310+ rushes and 40+ catches in a season. All of the previous seven either suffered injuries or precipitous declines the following year.
Taking more off Cook’s plate in September and October should keep him fresher for November and December. The best way to do that is rotating in Alexander Mattison more than they did in 2020, when he strangely saw a decrease in reps, but the other best way is to reduce the hits Cook takes when he’s on the field.
Giving Cook an Aaron Jones-like workload might be more sustainable than asking him to touch the ball 25 times per game again. Jones never received more than 20 carries in a game last year but was hyper-efficient when he got the ball at 5.5 yards per carry. He ended the year with 201 carries and over 1,100 yards. Cook will probably get more work than that, but getting his carry count closer to 200 than 300 might be a smart choice in Klint Kubiak’s first year.
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Couldn’t agree more with all of this Sam! And if giving Kirk more responsibility ends up failing drastically, then that tells us everything we need to know about our QB situation going forward.
Stop running on 2nd and long. Get Dalvin involved in the passing game in space, (not a screen either). That should improve scoring.