Making the case for wide receiver
The Vikings have bigger needs but the free agent market tells a story about the scarcity of good receivers
By Matthew Coller
If you have been following along with Purple Insider for a really long time, you might remember certain takes as 1) the Vikings should trade for Antonio Brown as WR3 to Thielen and Diggs 2) the Vikings should draft another receiver in 2019 to go with Thielen and Diggs 3) the Vikings should draft Jordan Addison even if they need a bunch of defensive positions.
Hey, one of those actually happened.
Well, I regret to inform you that I’m at it again.
The Vikings are in the unfortunate position of only having four draft picks in a draft that looks very deep from the middle of the first to the middle of the second rounds. There are defensive tackles and corners and guards galore who would fit nicely within Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s roster, so why the heck would anybody try to argue for another wide receiver when the Vikings already have an argument as the league’s most stacked groups of weapons?
Don’t knock the argument until you try it…
That case begins with scarcity.
Let’s start by taking a look at the wide receivers who were acquired either by trade or free agency this offseason:
— The Pittsburgh Steelers traded for DK Metcalf and signed him to a four-year, $132 million deal.
— The Washington Commanders traded for Deebo Samuel.
— New England signed Stefon Diggs to a three-year deal with $26 million guaranteed.
— Davante Adams signed with the Rams for $22 million per year, $26 million guaranteed.
— The Texans traded for Christian Kirk.
— The Seahawks signed Cooper Kupp to a deal worth $15 million per year, $17.5 million guaranteed.
That ends the list of receivers who were acquired this year for at least $15 million per season. The next biggest free agents thus far at receiver are Dyami Brown, Tutu Atwell and Josh Palmer at $10 million per year.
Meanwhile the following receivers signed extensions with their team: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Khalil Shakir, Darius Slayton.
It’s pretty glaring that the only big name receivers who were acquired are all coming off major injuries or had notable declines in production, yet the price tags were still significant. DK Metcalf is the closest thing to a star in his prime (though he did produce his lowest yardage total and PFF grade since his rookie year) and he got paid within $3 million of Justin Jefferson.
If you were a team that was in serious need of a wide receiver this offseason, your options were not good. Either take a significant risk on someone like Kupp, who has only played 33 of the last possible 51 games since his all-time great 2021 season, overpay for an average WR3 like Palmer or Brown or get yourself a depth receiver like Mack Hollins or Demarcus Robinson.
Almost all of the best wide receivers in the NFL who are in their second or third contracts are playing for the teams that drafted them. Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Courtland Sutton, Nico Collins, Mike Evans.
In fact, out of PFF’s top 25 receivers last year with at least 85 targets, three of them are not with the team that drafted them. That’s it. AJ Brown, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers. And Tennessee was clearly out of their minds when they traded Brown.
I know what you’re thinking: Even if it is a scarce position, how can they pass up on positions of need for a guy that isn’t going to contribute that much? Well, let’s take a look at how much WR3s contribute.
Here are the target and yardage totals from WR3s from the top 5 passing games in the NFL:
Cincinnati — Andrei Iosivas — 66 targets, 479 yards
Detroit — Tim Patrick — 44 targets, 394 yards
Tampa Bay — Jalen McMillan 58 targets, 461 yards (13 games)
San Francisco — Ricky Pearsall — 46 targets, 400 yards (in 11 games)
Atlanta Falcons — Ray-Ray McCloud — 87 targets, 686 yards
To put those numbers in context, the aforementioned receivers that made $10 million per year in free agency had 62 targets for 562 yards, 65 targets for 584 yards and 40 targets for 308 yards. Essentially the same numbers that you would expect from a drafted WR3. The 24th overall pick will make less than $4 million per year in the first two seasons.
Another important point: Calling someone WR3 these days feels antiquated. First, because there are 17 games and players are bound to get banged up. While Jalen Nailor played well at times last year when Addison was hurt, there was a different dynamic than when Addison was in the game. If the Vikings had a top talent behind Jefferson and Addison, they could more seamlessly keep the offense on track if there was an absence.
The other reason WR3 is old-school terminology is because receivers are no longer locked into traditional roles. Over his career, Jefferson has lined up in the slot 29% of the time (per PFF) and Jordan Addison 30% of snaps. Tight end TJ Hockenson is in the slot even more often at 39%. There is no such thing as a “pure slot guy” anymore.
It can’t be overstated just how much wide receivers impact quarterbacks these days (and probably forever).Last year, the top five teams in PFF receiving grade were the Lions (15 wins), Ravens (12), Rams (10), Vikings (14) and Falcons (8). Four of those teams made the playoffs and Michael Penix Jr. had a strong start to his career with the Falcons weapons. In 2023, the top five were the 49ers (12 wins), Dolphins (11), Lions (12), Cowboys (12) and Texans (10).
The Vikings are entering a window to chase a Super Bowl with young quarterback JJ McCarthy. The better he plays, the better the chance they have to go deep in the playoffs. The better his weapons, the better he will play.
Still, wouldn’t another position player be worth more surplus value if they worked out than a complimentary receiver? Of course the answer is yes if that player turned into a star right away. How often does that happen? A couple years ago PFF analyst Timo Riske looked at development curves for each position and found that offensive linemen do not peak until Year 3, defensive tackles and cornerbacks improve in Year 2 but peak in Years 3-4. The only positions that instantly have a massive impact are running back and safety.
Ideally if the Vikings drafted a receiver, that player would be coming into his prime just as the team was making its decision on whether to use the fifth-year option on Jordan Addison or sign him to a contract extension. Either one of those options is appearing to be extremely expensive. With Jefferson, Darrisaw and TJ Hockenson already in line to have large cap hits by 2027, that might be on the tricky side. Or it might be something they aren’t comfortable doing, depending on how Addison’s next two seasons (and offseasons) go, a receiver would be insurance against feeling forced to lock in Addison on an enormous deal.
They could also consider moving Hockenson down the road. In 2027, they can cut or trade him and save $16 million on the cap. Right now that doesn’t seem like something that’s on the table but much can change in two years.
Is there someone worth foregoing all the other talent with the 24th overall pick? CBS Sports draft analyst Mike Renner said on the Purple Insider podcast that Missouri’s Luther Burden would be the only receiver he would pick for the Vikings at that spot. Burden peaked as a college receiver in 2023 with 86 receptions for 1,209 yards. His report on PFF says, “The first-round talent is as well-rounded as they come, displaying the ability to succeed at any receiver spot in any offense.”
Philosophically speaking, the Vikings proved this offseason that many positions can be filled in free agency if your team has the ability to afford them within the salary cap and recruit with the best of ‘em. They filled starting guard, center, defensive tackle (x2), cornerback and running back within a couple days. Wide receivers do not fall into the category of a position that teams can easily find on the open market, which means that you can never draft too many of them or draft them too high. Plus, even if they aren’t your No. 1 guy, they still tend to create between 400-600 yards on top passing offenses. That carries significant value.
Practically speaking, it would be hard for the Vikings to spend their top pick — wherever it might end up — on a spot where they have the league’s best player, another excellent talent and a Pro Bowl tight end. Drafting a top-notch guard could result in the Vikings solidifying a beastly offensive line for years to come or a cornerback might give them a partner for Byron Murphy Jr. going forward. Those two positions could put either the offense or defense over the edge.
There could be a middle ground. The Vikings could either trade down or use the 97th overall pick on players like Iowa State’s duo of prospects Jayden Higgins or Jaylin Noel. TCU’s Jack Bech lit up the Senior Bowl after a 1,000-yard season. Texas’s Isaiah Bond posted the fastest top speed among receivers at the NFL Combine and Stanford’s Elic Ayomanor is known as a technical master of his craft.
Whether they surprise the world with a receiver early in the draft or wait until the middle, the value of role-playing receivers and the challenge of finding them should be influential in the Vikings decision making in the draft.
Note: I might be saying this again next year and the year after that, so be ready.
I wish they could trade down to the end of round 1, get an 2nd or early third and still get three of these four from the top 100 picks - a top end receiver, DT, OL or DB.
It's a year or two too soon to use a 1st on a WR. It's critical to get surplus value from players on rookie Ks, but a WR's is severely curtailed when 18, 3 and 87 are all getting significant targets for the next two years. Nailor's production was fine (and consistent with the players cited), plus he's cheap for one more year. Addison is cheap for two more.
Next year (and when ideally the team has 4 picks on days 1/2 of the draft) makes a lot more sense.