Is it 'the system?'
Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips went into detail about the system they've asked JJ McCarthy to master this year. Are they doing it wrong?
By Matthew Coller
EAGAN — Apparently if you use the phrase “pure progression” in a room full of quarterbacks, an enormous debate will break out.
That’s what happened on Twitter on Tuesday after Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator Wes Phillips explained during his press conference why the team uses a “pure progression” system.
He said it was essentially born as an answer to coverage deception.
“In my time in the league from the beginning, everything was coverage read — it was, ‘here’s where I’m going… versus quarters, I’m going here versus two high, I’m going here versus single high,’ Phillips explained. “With the coverage becoming more complex and more versions of inverting the safety and the corner and play cover-2 or they drop the safety in the middle and drop both corners back and they’re the two deep guys. And there’s just so many different versions of coverage.”
Phillips said that he often has to hit the rewind button when watching tape in order to figure out what the coverage was. The idea, he said, is that the quarterback can find the No. 1 option and then if that player isn’t open, he can identify why and that should give him the answer of where to go with the ball.
“The beauty of a pure progression system is that as you’re dropping back, if one is not open, all right, who took it away?” Phillips said.
NFL legend Kurt Warner has been critical of these types of systems, favoring a system where the QB knows his concept inside and out and which coverages can/cannot stop particular schemes.
Warner tweeted on Tuesday about the “pure progression” system:
“It TRIES to combat disguising coverages… but just bc you build a play your QB can read across the field, does not mean it’s more effective & I argue the opposite!”
But then some less-legendary QBs signed off on the Vikings’ system.
“Love pure progressions,” ESPN analyst and ex-Lions, Colts etc. QB Dan Orlovsky wrote.
Ex-Saint/Brown etc. QB Luke McCown responded:
“It’s why pure progression offenses and or plays still have a place. When you can’t tell what the coverage or defense is vs these types of diabolical disguises, you must have a starting point with your eyes. Even if it’s covered,
At some point for some plays you have to be able to say I don’t care what the coverage is, because you’re not gonna figure them all out. Just get your eyes in the right spot and work it out with your eyes and feet.”
Former Patriot/Brown etc. Brian Hoyer wants QBs reading the defense. He said:
“Pure progression reads are great but teaching QBs to read coverage so they can get to an area faster as opposed to sweeping the board across the field can be the difference between a completion or a sack. This is why I think Drake Maye has made such a leap this year because Josh McDaniels didn’t try to make it easier on him by giving him simple reads but challenged him to do the hard things. He put in the work and it has paid off tremendously for him and the Patriots.”
So, are the Vikings doing it wrong for young JJ McCarthy?
If we read the explanations from the QBs and Phillips, it is clear that the Vikings are trying to use the most straightforward system for McCarthy to combat wildly confusing coverage looks.
In an appearance with Paul Allen on Tuesday, head coach Kevin O’Connell brought up times in which McCarthy would tell coaches things that he anticipated specific defensive players doing, to which O’Connell said: “Stop. Just quiet your mind and let’s not overthink anything other than what is my job on the play.”
The idea that it needed to be more complicated with the “coverage read” system doesn’t seem to fit unless the Vikings had way, way more time to work with McCarthy.
At the same time, much of the discussion last week was about simplifying things. O’Connell talked about having less “inventory.” Offensive coordinator Wes Phillips talked about formations and motions. Tight end TJ Hockenson said it was “not something we want” the coaches to have to do but considering the state of the offense, they had to make it “a little less at the line [of scrimmage].” Aaron Jones couldn’t think of a better phrase than “dumbing it down” so he rolled with that.
McCarthy played decisively, getting the ball out of his hands quicker than he has all season. He threw the ball accurately, often to wide open targets. He scored touchdowns and won. It was runaway his best showing by QB rating, PFF grade and any other metric you’ll find.
But it doesn’t seem that simplification referred to the actual system, rather the amount of things used to dress up a straightforward system. Motions, formations, checks at the line of scrimmage. The sheer number of passes vs. runs. The screens and play-actions. Stuff like that.
When it comes to the type of system the Vikings are using, they have some recent history on their side. Sam Darnold exploded last year en route to a 4,300-yard, 35-touchdown season and Kirk Cousins had his winningest season in 2022 and then performed at a high level through eight games in 2023.
The answer might be that there’s no system that can change the reality of young quarterbacks.
Outside of New England Patriots star Drake Maye, most are having a really rough time in 2025. In terms of QB rating, Maye, New York’s Jaxon Dart (14th), who has only thrown 276 passes, and Houston’s CJ Stroud are the only quarterbacks under four years experience in the top 20.
Here’s where the other young QB’s rank: Michael Penix Jr. (22nd), Jayden Daniels (23rd), Bryce Young (24th), Caleb Williams (26th), Spencer Rattler (27th), Bo Nix (28th), Tyler Shough (35th), Shedeur Sanders (36th), Dillon Gabriel (37th), Cam Ward (41st), JJ McCarthy (44th).
In making their decision to roll with McCarthy, the Vikings may have miscalculated how difficult it is to win with young QBs in 2025, even if they planned for it with the “pure progression” system.
The 2025 NFL season has not been particularly friendly to quarterbacks in general. Passing yards per game are at their lowest since 2011. Yards per completion are at their lowest point in history. Net yards per attempt are about the same as 2007. Dominant defenses have brought great quarterbacks to their knees and young quarterbacks are struggling.
One of the reasons for the sea change from the pass-crazed 2018-2022 seasons is that defenses are evolving. Coverages rarely are what they look like pre-snap. Pressures are coming from every player on the field, not just the front four.
There probably isn’t a panacea system that’s going to change the fact that defenses are mostly winning the battle right now.
However, we did just see McCarthy play his best football against the Washington Commanders when things were “simplified.”
What are we supposed to make of that?
First, it gave folks hope that it may have been “the system” at fault because that’s a lot easier to accept than if it was McCarthy not being ready/able to play in the NFL. Systems are fixable, whereas quarterbacks’ shortcomings are harder to change.
The game against Washington was also clear example that circumstances matter in this discussion. Running “pure progression” versus a defense that allows 8.6 yards per attempt (dead last) is a lot easier than doing it against Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers’ top-ranked defense. The Vikings also got ahead in the game, ran the ball very effectively, protected the quarterback well and were playing at home.
How often do all those things come together? Not many times. It’s more of a short-term solution than a total fix.
The thing that seems to have confused the Vikings’ staff and players this year is that McCarthy continually has looked good in practice. But when he got into the games, he made poor decisions that resulted in turnovers.
His 5.1% turnover-worthy play rate is still in the top five worst in the NFL despite a clean sheet on Sunday. Were those “system” related or panic-related or trying-too-hard-related? Or just young QB-related?
Oddly enough, where he was deciding to throw the ball might not have even been the main issue. McCarthy’s “on-target” percentage per Pro-Football Reference is just 63.1% and his “bad throw” percentage is 21.8%. Last year those numbers were 77.0% and 15.0% for Sam Darnold. In 2023, Kirk Cousins hit 82.8% on target and only had 12.8% “bad.” Even Nick Mullens was on target 73.1% of the time in ‘23. Accuracy takes time to develop, too.
Over the next four weeks, whether the Vikings and McCarthy can build on the “simplified” system will tell us a lot about where the team is going in the future. But it probably isn’t fair to suggest that the “system” was the root of all the issues. If he improves, it will be because he is better understanding how to play within that system, making better decisions and playing easier defenses (the Cowboys and Giants are nearly as poor as Washington).
Listened to your talk with Jeremiah today (who as usual was awesome)... And it makes sense that
1. They had to tailor (dumb down) the system for JJ
2. Washington was the perfect place to look better
3. JJ was good, but still (even outside of mechanics) a bunch of issues
4. Every week they need to add more wrinkles to get JJ better
5. It will be a process and take some time.
Personally I think JJ needed a week off to just clear his head.
And maybe (hopefully) it is just lack of reps at the NFL level. The fact that he gets it in practice is a good start. Outside of lack of reps, maybe he gets himself too hyped up for games. Maybe a more zen like outlook (in addition to his meditation) would help.
There is no offence that works when the QB looks like a skittish toddler. Warner is right that more complex systems can maximize performance, but they are also harder to execute. This offence worked just fine with JJ and better QB play. Likewise, it's fine to have a shifting, week-to-week defence. It's also fine to have a simple system, with zero broken plays because nobody ever gets confused, executed by great players. The Sapp/Rice Tampa teams dominated because they had incredible pass rush, hard hitting safeties, rangy LBs and corners who could tackle and cover the flats. You could teach that to a high school team, and if you have the players you win state, if you don't you miss the playoffs.
It's nice that Maye looks great, it seems like he's made a leap, but spoiler--the opponents matter, too. Warner isn't incentivized to espouse patience and perspective, but it's ok to wait until Maye beats the two of the Texans, Bolts or Broncos in the playoffs before drawing too many conclusions.