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Awesome article. I'm glad you chose to make this one open to everyone, because some people in the fanbase seem to think that the Cardinals or the Raiders would give up there second just to come up a couple spots.

A question - How do you (or teams, more precisely) decide on the value to assign future picks? Do they assume roughly where the team will place in that year's draft? Obviously a '22 1st round pick from the Chiefs is unlikely to be as valuable as one from, say, the Texans. I imagine as the discrepancy in value from pick to pick tapers off in later rounds, there's less focus on that for day 3 picks.

Also, is there evidence to suggest that future picks have diminished value in trades because "one in the hand is worth two in the bush"? Or maybe that depends on the situation. Detroit, who is clearly in a rebuild, seemed to prefer the future picks that the Rams were offering over the '21 pick that Carolina offered, possibly so they can build their roster a bit this year, and then use their future capital to trade up for a QB in '22

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author

I just wanted Sam to get heckled for passing up on Kyle Pitts haha...I don't know if there is evidence for that. I do know this is a very weird draft. If you saw the Defector piece about how only half the number of players who usually get agents have done so this year, I think that tells you about the depth of talent

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Excellent breakdown, Sam! The points/team chart really helps follow all this crazy imaginary math... I pretty much expect "Trader Rick" to follow his usual hoarder routine, but it would be an amazingly refreshing twist if he went quality over quantity this draft.

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founding

This article is suspiciously lacking in puns? Have to wonder who ghost wrote it.

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