How the Vikings could acquire a second-round pick
How the Vikings could acquire a second-round pick
Using the trade value chart, we take a look at how Rick Spielman could work his way up or down the board.
By Sam Ekstrom
Oh, how simple it used to be to cover a Minnesota Vikings draft. Before Rick Spielman came along, there wasn’t much nuance to draft day. The top picks were relatively good, the late picks were obscure, and there were a tidy number of players selected. In the five years before Spielman arrived following the 2006 draft, Minnesota averaged the standard seven selections per year.
Then Spielman came around and started using his influence to construct the “Trader Rick” persona. He was part of the triangle-of-authority for several years before getting the full GM job in 2012, which gave him newfound control over the draft. In his first draft at the helm, he swindled the Browns into trading up for Trent Richardson in exchange for three Day 3 picks. The next year he amassed three first-round picks through a big trade-up for Cordarrelle Patterson yet still managed to land nine total picks with a bevy of Day 3 moves.
In the eight drafts Spielman has overseen since 2012, he’s averaged over 10 players per draft, never falling below eight. And in the four most recent years where compensatory picks could be traded, Spielman averaged almost 12.
All that to say: The “Trader Rick” moniker is earned, and Vikings fans should expect more dealings in 2021 with 10 picks already in the holster. Spielman has proven he’s willing to move up or move back, and this year both options should be on the table in an effort to acquire a second-round pick.
If you’re not already, you should become familiar with the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, which has been informing pick values for three decades. Each pick is assigned a number, which acts like currency (no, we’re not talking crypto, but the GMs might say it’s just as valuable!). The top pick is worth 3,000 virtual points and the value decreases from there until seventh-round picks, which are all worth one point.
If you need proof that the chart isn’t obsolete, longtime Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff joined PFF’s Forecast show and explained that all teams reference back to this original chart, even if they have their own calculations on the side.
“The problem with using your own modified chart and adjusted chart, which is probably exponentially more effective than the first chart that was out there,” Dimitroff said, “there was no synchronicity. If I was talking about something to the Broncos or the Browns, they’re talking to me about something, and we're talking two different languages interestingly enough. It became very obfuscated when you talked about two different charts.”
Here’s the chart for this draft with the Vikings’ picks highlighted:
Want proof the chart gets used? Let’s look at a few examples of Spielman’s deals in the past.
Cordarrelle Patterson trade-up, 2013
Vikings receive: Pick 29 = 640 points
Patriots receive: Pick 52 (380 points), Pick 83 (175 points), Pick 102 (92 points), Pick 229 (1 point) = 648 points
Dalvin Cook trade-up, 2017
Vikings receive: Pick 41 = 490 points
Bengals receive: Pick 48 (420 points), Pick 128 (44 points) = 464 points
Trade back from Pick 25, 2020
Vikings receive: Pick 31 (600 points), Pick 117 (60 points), Pick 176 (19.4) = 679.4 points
49ers receive: Pick 25 = 720 points
There’s bound to be up to a 5% variance to account for where team’s picks actually land on the chart, so it’s rarely going to equal out perfectly, but the values tend to be quite even. The savvy GMs, often Spielman, will find ways to acquire late sixths or sevenths, even though they have little bearing on the actual point value.
With all this in mind, let’s examine how to think about the trade value chart when it comes to the Vikings’ approach in less than two weeks.
Identifying trade-down opportunities
The easiest way to acquire a second-round pick is via a trade-back in the first round — and it’s still not THAT easy. To get a realistic look, I ran a PFF Mock Draft to test the waters. At Pick 14, the board had gone like this:
1. QB Trevor Lawrence
2. QB Zach Wilson
3. QB Justin Fields
4. T Penei Sewell
5. WR Jaylen Waddle
6. T Rashawn Slater
7. WR Devonta Smith
8. QB Trey Lance
9. LB Micah Parsons
10. WR Ja’Marr Chase
11. CB Caleb Farley
12. QB Mac Jones
13. OL Alijah Vera-Tucker
The best player on the remaining board is TE Kyle Pitts. That’s the kind of playmaker that almost all 32 teams would covet, and he’s literally one of a kind in this draft. The top DLs are also available, whether it’s DT Christian Barmore or DEs Kwity Paye and Jayson Oweh. You’ve also got former Gophers WR Rashod Bateman, T Christian Darrisaw and CB Patrick Surtain II to choose from. So there’s about half a dozen desirable assets that might yield some trade calls.
What would need to happen for the Vikings to get a second-round pick and keep a first-round pick as well? They’ll need to be selective, since moving back just a couple picks isn’t going to get them into the second round.
Minnesota would probably need to find a trade partner willing to move up seven spots or more. Pick 14 is worth 1,100 points. Pick 20, belonging to Chicago, is worth 850 points, and the Bears’ second-round pick is worth 380.
Even if the Bears really wanted Pitts on their offense this year, Chicago would be giving up 1,230 and getting back only 1,100 — plus it’s a division rival, so the Vikings can’t expect a bargain.
More feasible options start with Pick 21 and the Colts. Indianapolis’s first-round pick is worth 800. Their second is worth 360. The 1,160 points is within the margin of error that this might fly, although with no third-round pick the Colts may not be eager to part with a second-rounder.
The best trade partners will have extra picks later in the draft as insurance, and/or they’ll be a good team looking for an important piece to complete their roster. Tennessee, for example, has an extra third-round pick, New Orleans has an extra third, and Cleveland has an extra third and an extra fourth. All were playoff teams last year.
But no team looks like a better trade partner on paper than the Jacksonville Jaguars, probably the biggest player in this draft. They have two firsts, two seconds, one third, two fourths and two fifths. Their late first-round pick at No. 25 (720 points), packaged with their late second-round pick at No. 45 (450 points) would equal out to 1,170 points (three guesses where the Jaguars got that 45th pick). If the 70-point difference was a dealbreaker, the Vikings could toss in any of their four fourth-round picks to settle up the transaction.
Voila. The Jaguars get either a dynamic tight end for Trevor Lawrence, a franchise left tackle in Darrisaw or one of the top corner prospects in Surtain to pair with C.J. Henderson. Not to mention they’ll still have the 33rd overall pick. The Vikings, on the other hand, get to make amends for the botched Yannick Ngakoue trade.
Only problem for the Vikings is that everybody will want to talk to Jacksonville. Vikings will have to hope Urban Meyer is feeling splashy and wants to move up 11 spots for a game-changer.
Is a trade-up too ambitious?
The less desirable path is to trade up into the second round. For a pick-hoarder like Spielman, it might be too much to bear if he has to part with the number of assets it’ll take. Put on your math hats for a moment.
To move into the middle of the second round, the Vikings would have to pay around 400-450 points on the trade value chart. That’s roughly equivalent to:
Both thirds and their earliest fourth (396 points)
Their early third, all four fourths and their late fifth (398.6 points)
That’s a tall order and would rob Spielman of the ability to shift around on Day 3, where moving up and down becomes exponentially easier. Parting with all of their third-round picks or all of their fourth-round picks is probably a non-starter.
Now let’s say there’s a valuable prospect falling late into the second round, things open up a bit more. Picks 60-64 are worth between 270-300 points. That’s roughly equivalent to:
Their early third and two late fourths (273.5 points)
Their late third, two early fourths and a late fifth (265.6 points)
Base case for Spielman is finding a trade partner willing to accept future currency. If another team will take a 2022 third-round pick, that suddenly opens the door for the Vikings to lose only one third-round pick this year, and probably a late-rounder like a fifth since future picks are a little more unpredictable.
Another option would be trading slightly back from No. 14 to acquire extra thirds and fourths, then using those in a trade-up package.
And of course, the Vikings could always dangle a player and package him with a pick or two. There aren’t, however, too many assets that Minnesota would seemingly be willing to lose without harming this year’s roster. Maybe someone like Mike Hughes? (And he’s not worth very all that much.) It’s a limited pool of options.
The trade value chart isn’t very receptive to a Vikings trade-up into the coveted second round. Minnesota will have to likely have to charm a suitor into moving up to No. 14 if they want a shot at some of the tantalizing second-round talent.
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Awesome article. I'm glad you chose to make this one open to everyone, because some people in the fanbase seem to think that the Cardinals or the Raiders would give up there second just to come up a couple spots.
A question - How do you (or teams, more precisely) decide on the value to assign future picks? Do they assume roughly where the team will place in that year's draft? Obviously a '22 1st round pick from the Chiefs is unlikely to be as valuable as one from, say, the Texans. I imagine as the discrepancy in value from pick to pick tapers off in later rounds, there's less focus on that for day 3 picks.
Also, is there evidence to suggest that future picks have diminished value in trades because "one in the hand is worth two in the bush"? Or maybe that depends on the situation. Detroit, who is clearly in a rebuild, seemed to prefer the future picks that the Rams were offering over the '21 pick that Carolina offered, possibly so they can build their roster a bit this year, and then use their future capital to trade up for a QB in '22
Excellent breakdown, Sam! The points/team chart really helps follow all this crazy imaginary math... I pretty much expect "Trader Rick" to follow his usual hoarder routine, but it would be an amazingly refreshing twist if he went quality over quantity this draft.