How JJ McCarthy convinced the Vikings he could be QB1

A 14-win veteran quarterback is leaving but the 2024 10th overall pick has already shown the Vikings that they can trust him

© Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

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By Matthew Coller

How many times in the history of the NFL has a quarterback performed as well as Sam Darnold and then been allowed to walk out the door?

I’ll save you the research on Pro-Football Reference: Not many.

Yet that is exactly what is about to happen as reports from multiple NFL Insiders have said that Darnold is the “top target” of the Seattle Seahawks following their trade sending Geno Smith to the Las Vegas Raiders. The certainty level of the Darnold-to-Seattle reports increased on Saturday when ESPN’s Adam Schefter confirmed that Darnold will not be returning to Minnesota.

While this is very uncommon, there also haven’t been many instances where the quarterback behind the winning veteran QB has instilled the type of confidence in his trajectory that JJ McCarthy has with the Minnesota Vikings. And there haven’t been many situations where the supporting cast featured the No. 1 receiver in the NFL, an elite left tackle and the QB-whispering Coach of the Year.

A bold but not insane comparison would be the Kansas City Chiefs moving from Alex Smith to Patrick Mahomes.

The difference between the Smith-to-Mahomes and Darnold-to-McCarthy is the fact that the Minnesota kid didn’t get any playing or practice time outside of training camp and one preseason game. In Mahomes’s rookie year, he had a full season of practice, threw 54 preseason passes with a 109.3 rating and won his Week 18 start.

So how did McCarthy give the Vikings enough confidence to turn things over to him?

That process started before draft night 2024.

After veteran QB Kirk Cousins left Minnesota to sign with the Atlanta Falcons in free agency, head coach Kevin O’Connell and a band of traveling Vikings brass went on a journey to find their future franchise quarterback. The Vikings took in everything they could during their visit to meet McCarthy. What did people around campus say about him? How did he process the things that O’Connell taught him when they went out to the field in Michigan for a workout? Did the HC and QB jive together when they were talking ball?

On draft night, the Vikings made phone calls about trading up but were rejected by the top teams, leaving them with two QBs that they would be comfortable with: Michael Penix Jr. and McCarthy. Once Penix Jr. went off the board, the Vikings moved up one spot to make sure that they got the Michigan star.

There was one major question that followed McCarthy to Minnesota: How much development was he going to need? General manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, whose background is in analytics, didn’t have the type of sample size that he would have preferred when making a decision of such significance, so they had to focus on certain areas of McCarthy’s game. How he played in the biggest moments with Michigan. What they took away from the NFL Combine about his raw tools like arm strength, quickness, athleticism. How much room there was for growth. How he would likely fit in their culture.

When McCarthy arrived at OTAs, Darnold took all the first-team reps as McCarthy learned brand new footwork. The results of the practices open to the media were very clear that Darnold was way ahead. McCarthy flashed serious throwing power but his accuracy was inconsistent during the spring program. At the end of minicamp, he admitted that there were a lot of tough days as he got acclimated to O’Connell’s technique and scheme.

What happened between minicamp and training camp was probably the most telling thing to the organization about McCarthy. Having gone through a national championship run, the pre-draft process and then the offseason program, most people would be ready for a couple weeks on a beach. Instead McCarthy remained in Minnesota and worked to gain as much ground before training camp as he could. When camp began, the difference was enormous. Suddenly his accuracy was sharp and his comfort in the offense was clear. By the third or fourth week of camp, he was running 2-minute drills like he had done it many times.

That doesn’t mean there weren’t rookie moments. He had practices with interceptions and miscues. Darnold’s camp was going smoother overall and it was clear that he was the more experienced quarterback but by the time the preseason rolled around McCarthy had made things interesting. First-Team Rep Watch was on.

Against the Raiders in the preseason opener, Darnold cruised down the field like an old pro and then quickly came out of the game after one drive, as a solidified starter would. But again, McCarthy made things interesting. He threw an interception on his first drive and then bounced back immediately with a touchdown drive. The rest of the day was a laser show. He finished with 188 yards on 17 passes and tossed two long two touchdowns.

As the Vikings prepared to visit the Cleveland Browns for joint practices, the coaching staff was talking about whether it was time to have McCarthy some significant first-team reps.

That wouldn’t come to fruition because he suffered a meniscus tear in the win over the Raiders. When he woke up from surgery, the 21-year-old quarterback was told that he needed a full repair, meaning he would miss the 2024 season. In Cleveland, O’Connell told the assembled media that he had already seen enough to know that McCarthy was a “franchise quarterback.”

O’Connell is prone to praising his players but there was nothing empty about his words pertaining to McCarthy. Over the next six months, as Darnold would lead the team to 14 wins, O’Connell treated McCarthy behind the scenes like he was preparing him to be QB1 in 2025.

At the NFL Combine, the 2024 Coach of the Year explained the process of teaching McCarthy, which included the use of victual reality:

“Being out there playing is always the number one way to advance forward, but knowing that that part of it was removed… we kind of offset some of that through the use of the VR stuff,” O’Connell explained. “Going through a weekly process that would mirror what Sam went through, whether that’s film study on a Tuesday, going through the early-down plan on Wednesday, third down, red zone as the week progresses. Then being in that meeting late in the week, that Saturday meeting where we go through the call sheet. My favorite meeting of the week is the red-pen meeting to try to get as many plays off that call sheet as I can. Simulating that: What are your favorite plays in the plan? What do you feel most comfortable with? As if you were playing in the game. We did that time and time again this year to try to see what we could get out of this year for JJ to make it so that when he hits the ground running in the spring.”

Darnold made things complicated with his performance. After his win over the Green Bay Packers in which he threw for 377 yards and three touchdowns and the team raised him up on their shoulders in the locker room, it appeared that it was going to be very difficult to unseat the incumbent QB, no matter how happy they were with McCarthy’s behind-the-scenes work.

There were also questions about McCarthy’s recovery. He was shown on the broadcast late in the season looking significantly less weighty than he was during training camp. News of a second “procedure,” no matter how routine for his recovery, also drew some question about whether he was going to be on track to start in 2025.

When Darnold struggled mightily against the Lions and Rams and the Vikings fell apart in the final two weeks, it made sticking with the original plan much easier.

In the weeks leading up to The Decision 2025, there were numerous reports that the Vikings were interested in bringing back Darnold. That may have been true because he set the bar very high in 2024 and the Vikings might have been able to make a run-it-back argument with plans to improve the O-line and defense in the offseason.

A return for Darnold wouldn’t have meant that any of the feelings about McCarthy changed, rather that they would have hoped to run back a Super Bowl-or-bust season in 2025 and develop McCarthy slower. No harm in that, as Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love would attest.

But from Darnold’s perspective, all it took was one team that truly wanted him in order to move on. When Seattle traded Smith and opened up a spot for him, it made too much sense to join his former coach in San Francisco Klint Kubiak rather than looking over his shoulder at the golden boy. Even if something changes course and Darnold signs elsewhere (Pittsburgh?), he will have found a team that can lock into him for more than just one year while their raise The Next Great Thing behind him.

Now the Vikings’ plan from the time the leadership arrived in 2022 has fully come to fruition. They corrected the salary cap to set up for spending as much as possible around McCarthy and enter free agency with the sixth most cap space in the NFL ($62 million, per OverTheCap). While that will certainly boost his odds of quick success, there are openings all over the depth chart. There is also a shortage of top-notch free agents, meaning that the big free agent spending plan might be more of a three-year plan than just this offseason. There might be some patience involved in The McCarthy Plan.

The Vikings also must find a QB2 who is an appropriate fit for helping to prepare McCarthy for his first season. Right now, the possibility of a camp competition does not seem realistic but the backup has to be someone with experience who could keep help the train on the tracks if McCarthy were to sputter or get injured again. It was clear from the team signing Daniel Jones that they wanted that QB2 to be him but the lack of good quarterbacks in free agency and the draft and abundance of needy teams may open the door for him to end up elsewhere.

No matter who is backing up, it’s McCarthy’s show now. That fact alone represents something different for the Vikings organization than some other teams around the league. The last time that the Vikings felt like they had a quarterback to build around was 2015 with Teddy Bridgewater. Before that, it was Daunte Culpepper in the early-2000s.

The franchise has had its high moments since Teddy went down but the QB position has been tumultuous. They traded for Sam Bradford, only to see him get injured. They won 13 games with Case Keenum but didn’t believe his success would continue. They signed Kirk Cousins, only to miss the playoffs and then be eliminated in the divisional round in 2019. They extended him multiple times but his overtime touchdown against the Saints in the Wild Card round of 2019 would be the farthest the Vikings would go with Cousins at the helm. Because of that, every offseason started with: Are they really running it back with Kirk? Are they going to extend him again? It never felt settled past 2019.

Had Darnold returned, the situation at the world’s most important position would have continued to feel like it was on rocky ground, even if Darnold continued to win. Questions would have continued to circle about when McCarthy was going to play. Even just the suggestion that Darnold could return caused some media folk to opine about whether McCarthy was going to demand a trade.

I guess this is the part where I should mention the reports trying to connect Aaron Rodgers to the Vikings. It seems Rodgers wants to play with Justin Jefferson and I don’t blame him. Until there’s any evidence that the reports are anything more than Rodgers trying to speak it into existence through media info vessels, we’ll just leave that alone.

Anyway, barring Rodgers insanity, the Vikings quarterback situation is finally settled. O’Connell and McCarthy are tied at the hip. Justin Jefferson has a quarterback he can work with over multiple years. Fans can buy the QB’s jersey without wondering if it will be an heirloom in 365 days.

That’s a pretty tectonic shift from a franchise that felt lost in purgatory a few years ago.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy. The NFC is suddenly stocked with great rosters like Philly and Detroit and up-and-coming teams with recently-drafted QBs like Washington, Chicago, Carolina, and Atlanta.

But the young, inexpensive QB path is tried and true. Turning to McCarthy allows the Vikings to have a real shot at building a contender, not always hoping and dreaming that outlier teams are for real.

The hardest part comes next: Making it happen. That begins on Monday with free agency and beyond.

ADDITIONAL NOTES

— Aaron Jones’s contract carries a $4.8 million cap hit in 2025 per OverTheCap.com. In 2026 he’s scheduled to have a $12.8 million hit but that can be restructured to reduce it by $5 million or he can be released post-June 1 and save $8 million.

— The Vikings signed Ryan Wright to a one-year contract. Competition should still be welcomed at that position.

— Seattle traded DK Metcalf to the Pittsburgh Steelers, bringing about questions of whether the Seahawks are in rebuild mode. Could that impact Darnold’s decision?

— Davante Adams signed with the Rams. They appear to be in all-in mode for 2025, as they should be with Stafford aging and the team overachieving last year.

— The Browns extended Myles Garrett. There goes a bunch of dreams from NFC North teams. His $40 million per year makes Jonathan Greenard’s $22 million look like one of the best contracts in the NFL.

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