Guest column: Laying out the Vikings' path to an excellent season
PFF's Eric Eager writes about how the Vikings can win the division and more
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This is a guest post from Dr. Eric Eager, a data scientist for Pro Football Focus. He is responsible for many of PFF’s top innovations, including a Wins Above Replacement statistic and many other analytical models used by all 32 NFL teams.
Laying out the Vikings' path to an excellent season
By Dr. Eric Eager
The 2019 NFL season is almost officially upon us, and with that understandable optimism for all of the league’s 32 fanbases. The Vikings fanbase is especially passionate about their team, and that’s why I’m excited to write about them this season for Matthew and his followers at Purple Insider. Before I get to that, I want to make some very shameless plugs. We at PFF have a treasure trove of data, and various ways of accessing this data. Almost all of my analysis makes use of this information, and if you want to do some of that for yourself, get yourself a subscription.
For the Minnesota Vikings they will look to build off of a season in which they won 10 regular season games and a road playoff game in Kirk Cousins’ second stanza at the helm, and Mike Zimmer’s sixth. They finished last year eighth in our power rankings at PFF, and didn’t move much from there in our early-offseason rankings. Betting markets have shifted Minnesota from a small underdog to win the NFC North to a small favorite, with an implied probability of 34%, versus 31% for Green Bay, 19% for Chicago and 15% for Detroit (per FanDuel sportsbook)
The current win total for the purple sits at 8.5/9 wins, implying that the market is pretty down on the North division. I’m on the record thinking that the Vikings will have a hard time reaching these expectations, and see a significant chance they struggle to finish 0.500 in a year where continuity will be a premium, and the Vikings are trying to install 15 draft picks and replace their best offensive player (Matthew, you can link to the episode when I called for 6-10).
However, in this guest piece I want to talk about what could go right for the Vikings. When we simulate the NFL season 10,000 times, there are inevitably good outcomes for the purple. In eight percent of simulations, the Vikings make the Super Bowl, and in three percent of universes, they win it. Here are some things that need to go right for the Vikings if they are to realize these high-end outcomes:
Adam Thielen returns to the player he was to start the 2018 season
Adam Thielen’s 2018 season has the distinction of being the most-valuable season among non-quarterbacks during the PFF era (2006-present), and he’ll likely need to compete at such a level to stave off the effects of losing Stefon Diggs. The tricky part about expecting this out of Thielen is that his production has always been higher in the west coast-like systems deployed by the Pat Shurmers and the John DeFillipo’s of the world, where he could roam from the slot against weaker defenders. If the Vikings continue to use three-receiver sets at the league’s lowest rate, such expectations might not be realized in 2020, especially given the presence of the slot-heavy rookie, Justin Jefferson.
Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris need to play even better than they did a season ago
People get irritated when this is pointed out, but replacing three starting cornerbacks is not a trivial task. The trio of Mackensie Alexander, Xavier Rhodes and Trae Waynes were worth a combined 0.27 wins above replacement last year, against a schedule that included opposing quarterbacks the likes of Chase Daniel, Daniel Jones, Case Keenum, Matt Moore, Brandon Allen and David Blough. This season, the Vikings play a schedule of quarterbacks that is among the league’s toughest, so it’s not enough for their cornerbacks to simply replace the players they lost, they have to be significantly better just to achieve the same results defensively. The fastest way to this outcome is elite level play from Smith and Harris, who were fourth and second a season ago at their position in terms of adding value. Secondary play is generally about the weakest links, but if the Vikings can buck that trend, and Mike Zimmer can coach for 16 games the way he did for one in New Orleans, the Vikings have a chance.
Gary Kubiak assesses 2019 for what it’s worth, and throws the ball more on early downs
The Vikings, because of the opposing quarterbacks cited above, were in a lot of positive game scripts, and could lean heavily on the running game on early downs as a result. This, in a sense, “worked” because of a good season from Dalvin Cook and a competent season from their offensive line. This is not a great approach to take in the general case, and with a more difficult schedule and the likely regression of Cook, the Vikings will have to be comfortable allowing Kirk Cousins, who was the sixth-most valuable quarterback in the NFL a season ago, earn his money on early downs. This will put a lot of pressure on Irv Smith, as the Vikings are very shallow at wide receiver as a result of the Diggs trade. If the second-year player out of Alabama is up for the task, a more balanced attack should keep them in enough games for them to be a contender in a relatively-flat NFC
Now, there are a ton of question marks. What the heck is going on with Danielle Hunter that has kept him out of camp for most of the summer? Even though Yannick Ngakoue is a good addition for the team, he’s not of the caliber than Everson Griffen was in his prime, and the Vikings still need to find push on the inside now that Michael Pierce, Linvall Joseph and Sheldon Richardson have all left over the past two offseasons. Will Cousins be able to have consecutive elite seasons at the most important position in the game? Will Kubiak be able to handle the full-time coordinator role after years without such a responsibility? It’s for all of the reasons that I’m not as optimistic as some about the 2019 Vikings, but like 2017, and probably every year now that they’re in the Cousins/Zimmer era, this team has high-end potential. Hopefully in this article I was able to show you some of the ways in which that path is possible.
Eric Eager is the Executive Director of Research and Development at PFF, and co-host of the PFF Forecast podcast. PFF offers a plethora of tools for fans of the NFL and NCAA, fantasy football players, and bettors, all of which can be found here.
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I looked at the schedule and picked 8/8 for the record. I don't like the pick but I think its realistic. With good luck - Hunter back in good health, Ngakoue learning the system quickly and improving the run blocking, Riley at least being average, Eflein and Dozier not getting killed, Bradbury making a leap, Cook not getting hurt and matches at least last year's production, no COVID casualties, Stephen actually holds up at nose, Hill doesn't violate NFL rules, Hughes doesn't get hurt, WRs make up the lost yardage from the Diggs trade, Thelein has a monster year 1300 yard ish, and Bisi or Johnson or the combination equal 1000+ yards, and Dantzler is what's advertised, Harris and Smith avoid injury and compensate for the rookie mistakes in front of them... That is a lot to expect to go right but will be necessary to go 10/6. Less than the above and we drop, possibly, all the way to 6/10. I'll still cheer no matter what but my focus is already tending to look at 2021.
I must admit that I wear rose colored glasses when it comes to the Vikings, but 6-10 seems quite pessimistic. Obviously, one cannot account for random factors and injuries that occur in a NFL season. However, the offense is back, minus Diggs and plus Jefferson. The issue on defense is the corners. The run defense wasn't real good last year (see SF game). If the corners are average, one could argue the defense will be better this year. The big factor is the schedule. It is more difficult, I think the coaching staff can scheme it up so they finish with 9 or 10 wins.