Friday mailbag: Who's staying? Who should play Week 17? We talkin' draft yet?

Vikings fans have begun their look toward the offseason and they have some great questions...

Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

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Hey, it’s 2021 everyone! And boy is this mailbag appropriate for the calendar turning over. Let’s have a look at mostly questions about the Vikings’ future…

Via Jeremy in the comment section: while it would be tough to see Thielen go, if the Vikings decide to trade him what would be the expected trade compensation in return? Also, under Zimmer since 14, why do the Vikings make the playoffs in odd years but miss them in even?

I don’t think you really want to think about moving Adam Thielen at this point unless you’re thinking about several more years of rebuilding. There’s nothing that screams drop off in Thielen’s game. Over the last three seasons, Kirk Cousins has had a 115.4, 124.2 and 118.7 QB rating when throwing to Thielen. Going into Week 17, he’s the sixth highest graded receiver.

Thielen’s success really comes from route running and great hands so there’s no reason to think that he’s suddenly going to fall off a cliff with his production. There’s probably several more years of top notch play and then a slower Larry Fitzgerald-like decline down the road.

Trading Diggs and drafting Jefferson worked out really well but that’s not something you’d want to rely on happening again.

However, if they were to trade Thielen, probably a second-round pick. He’s older than Diggs was at the time of the trade and I think the Diggs situation was pretty unique with one team being desperate for a No. 1 receiver.

Part 2: It’s just kinda randomly worked out that way. In 2016, they’re probably a legit contender if Teddy Bridgewater stays healthy rather than having to bring in Sam Bradford at the last minute (and then the added Norv Turner drama, injuries etc.).

The 2018 season is its own wild ride. Maybe there’s something to things going right and then the next year there’s regression, like the Vikings’ 2019 injury luck vs. 2020. I don’t think there’s any type of pattern you can count on for 2021.

From Eric, via email: What would you suggest the Vikings do for the offensive line in the offseason?  Is there anything from Cleveland's work at guard that would suggest whether he would or would not be effective at tackle?

There’s a key thing that I don’t know: Why they decided Cleveland is a guard. If he’s missing some key skill as a tackle, then the plan is different than if they only played him at guard to get him some experience.

I don’t think there’s anything from him playing guard that I can point to and say definitively. He’s clearly athletic and you have to like the way he battled through some tough times and a position change but left tackle is its own unique beast. Next year the Vikings’ LT will face Nick Bosa and Myles Garrett, by the way.

If Cleveland stays at guard, I’d sign Riley Reiff to a new deal and draft draft another tackle. Plus, naturally, upgrade from the worst pass blocking left guard in the NFL (per PFF) to someone more in the Josh Kline ballpark. Reiff has allowed only one sack this year and stayed healthy the whole season. Tackles can play into their mid-30s. You don’t really want to be taking risks there.

If Cleveland is the left tackle, spend some darn money on left guard. Joe Thuney from the Patriots might be a good fit. And again, draft someone before the fourth. I don’t care which position.

@_Born2Early_ Should we have any hope Vikes draft a qb in the 1st round in 2021 draft? Also Matthew your website and podcasts is an absolute treat. You are the best in the business my friend.

How about an as-of-December 31, 2020 pie chart on what position the Vikings will pick in the first round. *Extremely subject to change*

QB: 15%

DL: 40%

OL: 15%

DB: 20%

WR: 10%

It’s really hard to get inside the heads of people in the front office. Without a second-round pick, you could see them being very hesitant to spend on a QB when there’s needs all over the field. However, if the Green Bay Packers showed us anything in this last draft, teams don’t really see the impact of drafts for a few years (as the Vikings know with 2016-2019s drafts netting very few good players).

So is it possible that they could be thinking of going the Alex Smith route and draft a QB, play Cousins for 2021 and then trade him? Absolutely.

Is it more likely that the head coach will want shiny new toys on defense? Yes.

About Part 2: I would normally be too embarrassed to keep the complimentary part of this tweet in the mailbag but I figured I’d share this cool tidbit as we end the year: I discovered on Twitter that Purple Insider is the 8th ranked sports Substack in terms of subscribers. I am in absolute disbelief at the amount of support from everyone this year. It’s only been six months! Happy New Year to all of you. I couldn’t have been luckier this year to have all of you on board.

@youvikethat1 Do you think Kubiak will be back? If not will his son or someone else in house be promoted?

The way Gary sounded Thursday (more coming on this subject tomorrow), it wouldn’t be shocking if he didn’t return as OC. He’s had some health issues in the past and I can’t imagine how taxing this year was on him. He might decide that the offensive consultant job was more fit for him than all the duties of an OC. And actually he was fantastic in that role with Kevin Stefanski.

I don’t know a lot about Klint, to tell you the truth. In a normal year I would have some interaction with the QB coach but this year it’s been very hard to get to know people with COVID restrictions.

I know that Zimmer loves the play-action system for Cousins (and he’s right, they should just trust the passing game a little more). So my guess is that they would stay the same course even if Gary leaves.

@Scott_Roberts25 It’s been a crazy for many of us including you. In launching Purple Insider what’s the the thing that was toughest, most unexpected, enjoyable and rewarding along the way? Proud of what you’ve done Matthew! Cheers to 2021 and beyond!

Cheers to you as well, Scott!

The most unexpected thing was the sheer amount of support people showed right from the outset. I figured if a handful of people signed up, I’d be lucky. By the first two weeks, I already passed my projection for the first year. I’m still astonished by that.

Most enjoyable has been continuing to do my job. I never wanted to do anything else but cover this crazy team and even though it wasn’t the season everyone expected, it was still a great feeling every day to write and talk about them.

Most rewarding is when people tweet or leave in the comments that they’ve enjoyed an article. I want everyone here to feel like it was a good decision to jump on board every time they open an email or click on the site.

@Scott_Roberts25 Does the Vikings Dragon ever get to breathe fire again? When the accident happened a while back I thought they were investigating and just pausing it until that concluded. Seems like it quietly turned to RIP dragon fire but wasn’t sure if that’s officially decided!

Naturally the election and COVID stole the stage this year but the elimination of the fire-breathing dragon is one of the greatest sports injustices done in 2020 (and I do mean *sports* when I say that). I’m mostly kidding but it’s a crazy goofy decision by the NFL to eliminate the Vikings’ coolest pregame event because Tennessee had a fire one time? If there wasn’t anything dangerous about the dragon, he should breathe that fire.

Hopefully it comes back next year and everyone’s in a packed US Bank Stadium. Let me tell you: The empty stadium was awful to cover games in. I’m glad we had a season (really, really glad) but covering games with no fans was not a fun experience.

@RobDN1 Two parter: bigger draft need defensive line or offensive line and why did you select offensive line? Give me a realistic trade scenario that the Vikings use to move on from Cousins, including trading other players exchange of 1st round draft picks.

It’s the defensive line. Theoretically it should be easier to replace a guard in free agency or through development. I can only say theoretically because…well…you all have watched the last decade, so you get it. But even with Dakota Dozier at left guard — again, worst rated PFF pass blocker — they were still a very effective offense overall. That’s not to say I’d keep him, of course. Just that spending a top pick at that position probably isn’t the right move unless it’s Quinten Nelson.

With the present defensive line, the Vikings can’t stop anybody. Even if they get Hunter and Pierce back, most great D-lines have five or six guys who can play. The Vikings might be able to keep Ifeadi Odenigbo as a situational rusher and develop DJ Wonnum but the rest have to be replaced. A first-round defensive end would be a good place to start.

The most realistic trade scenario I can give you for Cousins is this:

Cousins to the Broncos for a second-round pick. His contract makes it pretty hard to ask for anything more than that and Denver has a really good team with a pathetic QB situation. They want to be competitive in a tough division and have the weapons and offensive system to plug him in.

If you want a wild Madden trade involving Cousins, how about trading Cousins straight up for Baker Mayfield and franchise tagging Mayfield?

@Scott_Roberts25 OL/WR group seem strong in this draft class. DT/DE seems like it’s a down year with good not great prospects. I get the want to draft D-Line. Do you think we could find a serviceable/affordable 3 Tech/Edge in free agency that would allow us to focus on a deeper group in the draft

At least what my pal Chris Trapasso from CBS Sports says is that the defensive end position actually has some impressive dudes. Defensive tackle is apparently down. But finding good three-techs in free agency isn’t easy. I’ll give you one guess the player with the highest percentage of snaps played at three-tech that’s going to be a free agent this year. Yep, it’s Jaleel Johnson.

So that makes it tricky. Clearly drafting a three-tech is a need since James Lynch didn’t show much this year and Jalyn Holmes got moved back out to defensive end. There isn’t much there and not much to solve it. Shamar Stephen might move back to three-tech next year on early downs and then Odenigbo rush from inside. Buuuut we’re a long way away from that.

@benjackson0812 Zimmers lack of buy in to analytics appears to have hurt the Vikings this year. If your in that department what’s the main message you need him to understand especially in a critical offseason??

It’s really not a complicated message. Mine would be: You aren’t that far away from being a top five offense.

Pass more on early downs. Go for it more on fourth down. Don’t settle as often for field goals. Jefferson, Jefferson, Jefferson. And use Cook more in the passing game outside of just screens.

The defense isn’t going to be No. 1 next year with this roster, even with guys coming back. So the 13th best offense in scoring really won’t get the job done.

@McKinneyMN My attempt at an outside the box question - If the Vikings roster was music gear (guitar, amps, pedals, etc), what upgrades/purchases could the Vikes make within their budget (salary cap) to make the best possible sounding setup going into 2021-2022?

For you guitar players out there, I got a Yamaha Revstar for Christmas with P90 pickups. Love it. Check it out sometime if you get the chance in a music shop or something.

I’ll give it a shot. Quarterback is the guitar, the most important part of the operation. Right now you’ve got a solid Fender Strat. Everyone likes it, it plays well but it doesn’t have a ton of kick. You can find new amps and different distortion pedals but without something that sets the audience’s hair on fire, your music is probably dad rock.

The problem is that guitars get better as prices go higher. QBs work basically like: If it’s good enough, it’s super expensive. I’m not sure how much farther I can take the analogy without non-guitar players wanting to log off forever.

@vikesfan1930 Rank the 2021 1st round possibilities A) Trade up for one of the "elite QB" B) Trade back to get a 2nd and more mid round picks C) Draft Best player or Defense player D) Some Crazy Rick move

These are great options. I’ll go with C, B, D, A …but that depends on whether we’re considering Trey Lance as one of the “elite” QB prospects. Right now it feels like it’s Lawrence/Wilson/Fields and then there’s a drop off to Lance/Trask/Jones with Lance easily having the highest upside.

I really want to pick “Some Crazy Rick Move” because it’s broad and there’s always good odds of that but this roster screams out for best player available. If they drafted a corner, everyone would lose their minds but do you trust Jeff Gladney and Cam Dantzler after this year? They showed some good things but Gladney overall was seventh worst in QB rating allowed and Dantzler got hurt three times. Taking the best guy is probably the right approach about 95% of the time for teams picking in the mid-first.

But maybe “Some Crazy Rick Move” is trading that pick for a player? Folks, we’ve got so much to talk about this offseason.

@KyeBaxter I know you don't cover the Lions and that you wrote a piece earlier covering why Cousins shouldn't be rated lower than Stafford, but I have to be honest. I still feel Stafford is better. Is this just the first round bias coming out?

Oh trust me, I get it. There’s no real evidence that points to Stafford being decidedly better but his arm is much better. Stafford is way more likely to make you go “WHAT?!?!?!” when he makes a crazy throw. However, he’s also even more likely to get sacked and struggles with consistent accuracy. Lions fans grip onto him because they have nothing else but they’ve been dealing with the “How much is Stafford’s fault?” question forever. You have to factor for organization but they’ve had weapons for years and it’s always the same kinda meh offensive output.

@mattverick Got any ideas you're ready to share about changes or new things for Purple Insider for 2021?

Not yet but there’s something in the works that could be pretty cool if it comes together.

Also — treat that comment section like a suggestion box. I would love to figure out how to do a Draft Sim Zoom Night or something like that where subscribers are invited to a zoom chat where we draft sim or a live film session.

I’d love to figure out some giveaways and other ways to make this thing interactive. I have an idea for next year to do a “REACTION” thread where subscribers can give their two sentence reaction to every game and I pick one winner for a giveaway.

@G3R4LD26 Say the Wilf family give you the keys to the sputtering Vikings car. Spielman is out and you're in. You have full control to do what you feel is best for the team. What is the very first move you are making and why? Also, could you permanently bring back the classic uniforms?

I wish I could bring back the classic uniforms but I have limits to my power. I do appreciate that the Vikings went all white on the road though.

The first move is deciding on an approach that lands this team in the top five on offense. Is it to draft a QB and aim for 2022? Is it spending huge dollars on OL? Is it getting two more receivers — maybe guys who can run a sub 4.6 40-yard dash?

After watching them give up 52 points, it feels weird to talk offense but look at the top five teams in passing Expected Points Added (which is performance vs. situation): Chiefs, Bills, Packers, Bucs, Titans.

Can your QB be as good as Mahomes or Rodgers? No. Can he be as good as this year’s Brady or Tannehill? Yes. But only if he has great pass protection and even more speed and playmakers who turn nothing into something.

@AlwazeCash If the Vikings only make one big free agent signing, which position would yield the most EV? G, CB, DE? *Assuming Reiff and Harris are gone, and Hunter is back* Bonus Points: How about the special teams drama we get to look forward to this off-season? Could be bears 2019 levels

I’m waffling between defensive end and cornerback. There’s a chicken and egg thing about how well corners can do their job is there’s no pressure but also the defensive line can’t get any pressure if the coverage is poor. Usually there’s a lot of good situational rushers in the free agent crop and only a handful of good corners, so I’d probably lean in that direction.

I think the Vikings should learn from last year when Yannick Ngakoue didn’t really help them much even though he was by far the best pass rusher through the first six games. Getting two or three proven free agents in the bargain bin is better than playing guys who are better fit for special teams roles.

Speaking of which, I am personally looking forward to the return of the kicking competition in 2020. I say they should have them hit 20 tackle dummies and then run out and kick blindfolded to see who takes the job.

@Skolllllllo Do you see Barr coming back? Biggest positions of need in the draft?

I do believe Barr will return. As the season went along, Wilson’s shortcomings became more clear and Zimmer views Barr as a centerpiece of the defense. They’re already probably going to lose Harris so it would be really tough to take another proven piece off this defense.

I think the hardest part about ranking positions of need is that the draft comes after free agency. If they pick up a starting defensive end like Melvin Ingram in free agency, that isn’t a need anymore. Same goes for Riley Reiff’s status. But at the moment, I’d rank it like this if QB is out of the picture:

1— DE

2— OT

3— S

4— CB

5— WR

@McKinneyMN In the case of Hunter, how much leverage does he actually have for an extension? He is certainly worth more than his current contract, but how often do players try and get an extension when they still have 2-3 years left on their current?

Not a lot but it’s never a good look to let a guy sit out rather than updating his contract or moving him. Say the Vikings said “no way we’re moving you or paying you” and Hunter sat out for next year. Who does that benefit? Nobody. It would be better to just trade him.

It happened with Adam Thielen before 2019. In 2017 he signed a three-year deal and they ripped it up after 2018.

Everyone knows Hunter’s deal is well below his market value, even with the injury. Of course, the report that he wants to be the highest paid DE is just posturing. That’s not going to happen coming off a year where he didn’t even play.

@SchielBrian Will Vikings (and league-wide) rookies benefit from a proper training camp/preseason in 2021 more than 2nd year guys typically would or has that ship sailed?

Every player will tell you that their first offseason is the most important of their careers. Rookies spend a huge amount of effort on the NFL Combine and draft but now they can dive deep into what worked and what didn’t and design a workout plan to their job, not a track meet. So yeah it will help them.

I’m not entirely certain of the impact of OTAs and minicamp. It’s a thing the Vikings seemed to lean on but I noticed Justin Jefferson didn’t have too much trouble figuring it all out. I saw that the players association wants to throw those things out after this year. I’m sure there’s no coaches who would sign up for that.

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Do you think the Vikings not running as much play action this year is due to a shift in offensive philosophy, or due to not trusting the offensive line to hold up for the time needed to execute?

The explanation is probably as simple as: They were trailing a lot.

Kirk Cousins threw 303 passes when losing and 173 when either tied or winning. Last year, Cousins passed 176 times when trailing and 268 when winning or tied.

Cousins’s play-action percentage only went down by about 4%. I don’t think Gary Kubiak forgot that he loves play-action. I think you can’t run it when you’re down 20 points to the Falcons or playing catch-up against the Panthers.

@WarleyOwl Which Vikings player had made the biggest improvement since the start of the season?

Justin Jefferson, for sure. He was a slot receiver to start and by the end he’s a franchise player.

Other than that, Cam Dantzler. He got smoked early on and then got the hang of things as he went along.

Aside from that, the reality is that most of the guys who are considered “young” are just placeholders and almost everyone who we talked about potentially breaking out or proving they could be a part of the future did not break out or prove they’re a part of the future.

@SamRoot43 You're packing your bag to go to TCO Performance Center to cover the Vikings' 2021 training camp, when the Great Odin hands you a magic staff. He tells you to tap the staff once on the sideline to best improve the Vikings. Which of the following do you do:

A) Turn Shamar Stephen into Cameron Heyward;

B) Turn Mike Hughes into Jalen Ramsey;

C) Turn Winnebago* into Quenton Nelson; *Any returning interior linemen not named Bradbury or Cleveland (who I am assuming for the time being will be LT in '21) (2/2)

I’ll go with Quinten Nelson for this reason: I don’t believe one good defensive player changes a ton about what happened this year. The Vikings had the best middle linebacker in the NFL for most of the season and still had a bottom 10 defense with him in the game. I do think that adding a superstar guard to an offensive line that can already run block pretty well would have been a game-changer.

Ramsey would be my second choice because a lockdown guy like that makes everyone else’s life easier (as we saw with Xavier Rhodes for two years in ‘16 and ‘17).

Nothing against Heyward, it’s just that one D-lineman can only do so much.

@egfseattle Has your opinion of Teddy changed after seeing him play a full season as a starter?

Not at all. In Teddy’s 19 starts over the last two years, he’s averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and has a 95.8 rating. When he played with a stacked team, he won. When he played with a terrible team, he didn’t win.

His PFF grade is just ahead of Ben Roethlisberger and just behind Jared Goff. Feels about right. Goff is probably the best comparison. He doesn’t have the physical skills to take over games and overcome losing Christian McCaffrey for the entire season and play with a brutal defense and a coach who was in over his head. It also seemed to me that Joe Brady’s offense surprised some teams early on but the league adjusted as the season went along.

I don’t think Teddy ever becomes the player he was on the way to becoming in 2016 but overall he had a solid average starting NFL QB season.

@MattKato Is Kubiak capable/willing of “modernizing” the O? Is Zim holding this back or not?

I did a little counting and Kubiak has had 7 different offenses over his career rank in the top 10 in pass attempts and one of his Houston teams ranked fourth in attempts. That was a 9-7 team that led the NFL in passing yards and finished third in net yards per pass attempt. They were 30th in rushing that year.

Also 11 of Kubiak’s 23 teams are in the top 11 in passing yards (Vikings this year were 18th). A lot of those times his teams had good running backs.

I’m not saying he has nothing to do with the running on second-and-10 and such but the guy wearing “HC” on his hat sets the philosophy.

@PP_26_No1 Do Nose Tackles matter?

Yes. Very much. You watched last week, right?

What’s a little odd to me is that they never went after Snacks Harrison (as far as has been reported). It was pretty clear that Shamar Stephen wasn’t going to be able to play a full-time nose tackle job and they just kinda let it play out. There was no attempt to sign anyone after Michael Pierce opted out.

You can see the domino effect of a guy who takes up the middle. Teams always had to run away from Linval Joseph, which was great for the linebackers and safeties because they never had to worry about guards and centers coming at them full speed.

@ATKing53632390 The Vikings have to extend Kirk again or trade him right? Those are the only two realistic options salary cap-wise?

Yeah but the extension wouldn’t come until after 2021. They could cut him before the third day of the league year and take a $41 million cap hit but that doesn’t seem within the realm of possibility even if they planed on drafting a QB and playing that QB right away or signing someone like Andy Dalton or trading for Marcus Mariota.

Here’s a good Cousins contract explainer.

@alstrain So I’ve been playing a lot of madden lately and created a roster for the Super Bowl era Vikings. It got me thinking, if you could create an all-time Vikings roster in Madden, who are your starters in each position?

Whew. That’s a great question. I’ll expand this to all video games and just make an offense because who cares about defense on video games.

QB: Tecmo Bowl III Warren Moon — Arm strength was insane

RB: Madden ‘97 Robert Smith — May have had 99 speed

WR: Dreamcast 2k2 Randy Moss — Anyone with a Dreamcast knows

WR: Madden ‘96 Qadry Ismail — Again, the 99 speed

WR: Madden ‘17 Cordarrelle Patterson — I used him correctly.

@Blazen1978 How crazy is the idea to try to bring in Haskins on a low money deal to see if he can turn things around? Have him sit 2021 and If 2022 goes south early You play him a bit. If he shows You something - You got one more option to go. If not - You move on without problems?

I can’t get on board. If the guy doesn’t take his job or his teammates’ health seriously, I’ve got no interest. I’m all about buy-low players but at quarterback it’s a different story. I’d buy low on Sam Darnold and I always kinda liked the Josh Rosen idea but not somebody who’s reckless and doesn’t care. That’s not something I’d want to waste my time on.

Maybe someday he’ll prove me wrong but I can’t think of a QB who came into the league with no interest in handling himself like an NFL player who ended up working out.

@dobsy1971 Well the season didn’t exactly go as I expected I thought 10-6 maybe 9-7 but now we’re almost don’t with 2020 what are your thoughts on who stays and who goes?

I’ll guess that the obvious ones like Harris, Rudolph and Reiff are gone and then a lot more of these placeholder type fellas are gone after training camp 2021.

The only surprise exit that I can think of would be Harrison Smith. He’s going to want a new contract with only one year remaining on his deal and he would actually bring back significant value. Still, that’s a longshot considering they’re very likely to lose Harris already.

@DanielVroman2 If the Vikings were to completely shift course and replace Zimmer, do you see any “likely” candidates they would pursue?

Teams usually go the opposite direction after they fire a coach, so you’d be talking about offensive-minded coaches. Maybe Brian Daboll or Arthur Smith. The system and would stay pretty much the same with Smith except it would be updated a bit. Aside from Kubiak, there isn’t anyone who is a coach-in-waiting like Stefanski was last year.

@Nevertweets3 QUESTION- How can Vikes throw (to Jefferson) more and still keep Dalvin heavily involved? With how much money he makes and how good Dalvin is you gotta use him, but it’s obvious they need to throw A LOT more so how should they balance that??

Maybe this is too simple but… throw it to Dalvin. They really only ever use Cook in screens and swing passes out of the backfield. We never see Mattison/Cook in at the same time or Cook line up in the slot or as an outside receiver. When the Panthers threw to Christian McCaffrey 116 times in 2019, he averaged 8.7 yards per catch. His yards per target was 7.1, which is more than two yards better than running the ball.

It’s weird to say that they’ve left meat on the bone with Cook but he could do a little more damage in the passing game than 54 targets.

@smccullough5 Seeing that Sundays game is basically an early 2021 pre-season game, what is your ideal OL grouping to see if there is any potential? Mine is Cleveland, Jones, Bradbury, Collins, O'Neil.

Aviante Collins? After four training camps, I think we’re set on Collins. There’s no need to see Jones either. We know what he is (which is better than their present starter).

It would probably be: Cleveland, Hinton, Bradbury, Samia, Udoh if you’re trying to get looks at guys. But let’s be honest, there’s no real benefit in that. Don’t bother tricking yourself into thinking something is there when the other team is horrible and doesn’t care.

@Eicemann7 Which of these current Vikings will be back with the team next season? Barr, Harris, Rieff, Rudolph

Barr yes. If they’re trying to win next year, they should try to keep Reiff. I suppose there is a case for keeping Harris since his price tag will be down. Maybe if you take the body of work rather than this year, which was disappointing overall.

Me: Who’s winning the game?

Just kidding everyone. Happy New Year!

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