Friday Mailbag: What's a successful season?

Vikings fans are getting in all their summer chatter questions

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, friends! Hope all of you are getting some time off next week for the July 4th holiday. Only a few more weeks to go before camp, so let’s fire this thing up….

@nurple_purp I’m really intrigued by Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, his measurables look like a juiced up version of Jihad Ward. What 2025 rookie outside of Donovan Jackson do you think plays the most snaps this year?

Ingram-Dawkins makes the most sense for playing the most snaps because the other picks aren’t really in a position to play a ton in Year 1. I could see Tai Felton working his way into a specific role but with the starting trio and possibly Rondale Moore in a crowded room, it’s hard to see him racking up more than a handful of snaps/catches unless there’s a rash of injuries. Same goes for Kobe King and Gavin Bartholomew. It would appear that Ingram-Dawkins is the only one who could possibly get on the field without injuries ahead of him. He’s a freaky athlete, high IQ and has experience working in different spots along the DL. The only caveat is that he hasn’t played a ton of football in his career, can he really be ready to be out there a lot this year? We’ll see but I do like that Ward comparison.

@rognord What is the best dining option near TCO for training camp visitors and why should they sponsor Purple Insider?

Jersey Mikes is the official pick of Vikings reporters. Right now there aren’t many options right near the facility. They just put in a Mexican and Indian place. If you go 10 minutes away, there are some strip malls that have your typical stuff like Chinese food, pizza, fast food. For right now, you should plan on eating downtown somewhere in St. Paul and driving out to the facility later. In a few years, it should be a lot better.

@asiddiqui15 Who on the team makes the biggest jump this year?

The guy that I think is going to be talked about as a serious dude after this season is Isaiah Rodgers. Of course, I’m only basing this on his previous small sample numbers and the way he moved around at OTAs/minicamp but he has such explosiveness that he could be a legit difference maker now that he’s getting a chance. I’m also really interested in Levi Drake Rodriguez’s progress. Maybe Jalen Nailor too?

Obviously there are other clear candidates like Dallas Turner, Theo Jackson, Mekhi Blackmon.

@skiyouMeeko What’s your favorite random classic Vikings game to rewatch on YouTube? Note: you cannot pick a game you covered

The one that comes to mind immediately is 2004 Vikings-Colts. Daunte vs. Manning. The two MVP candidates from that year. It goes back and forth. Manning is going crazy. Culpepper somehow only throws 19 passes but completes 16 of them. Burleson returns a punt for a TD. The game comes down to a last-second field goal. It was great. Anything ‘04, I’m in. The other era that I find myself watching for old Vikings games is either Gus Frerotte or Warren Moon eras. Gus was willing to just air that thing out.

@Burner_or_not How many catches will Jordan mason have in 18 games. I have no idea where to set the over/under.

I don’t think it will be many. Last year Cam Akers had 10 and Ty Chandler had six receptions. I’d put Mason at maybe 20.

It’s interesting, the NFL seems to be going away from RBs catching the ball outside of McCaffrey and Kamara. I wonder why that might be. Once upon a time there were a lot of RBs who were equal parts runner and receiver but we just don’t see that often now. Maybe anyone who can catch is playing WR. Having Aaron Jones is an edge.

@minnesotaguy11 Does Darnold keep his progress going in Seattle and will the Vikings carry three qbs, an who will they be, or just two?

I’m guessing Darnold is going to do well but that team will be too flawed to be dangerous. He can have a big season statistically and make a lot of great plays. He just takes too many bad sacks to play behind an O-line that awful and doesn’t have the same caliber of receivers that he did in Minnesota. I like Smith-Njigba and Kupp as a comb, they’re just not Jefferson/Addison.

I’ll say that they do keep three QBs. Right now I might go out on the smallest limb and say it’ll be JJ, Howell and Brosmer.

@justinsiebert18 How has Michael Jurgens looked to you this offseason and even before? Can we trust him to backup Ryan Kelly or is backup center lowkey a huge need given Kelly’s injury history?

We can’t get any indication from the offensive linemen during minicamp because they aren’t doing full-speed or padded work. We’re going to have to wait for training camp. What I did pick up on last year was that he was active over Dan Feeney. That might not sound like much but it’s a seventh-round rookie getting a nod over a veteran. That says something about the kid. Can you trust him? I have no idea until we actually see him in real games. I liked him in camp and preseason last year. When you think about O-linemen though, if you allow one pressure per game at center you’re a Pro Bowler but if you allow two per game you are mediocre and three per game you’re out of the league. So hard to tell where anyone is gonna land on that spectrum until they do it.

@DT17108127 What’s the worst starting lineup you can put together from players who started at least 1 game in the years you’ve covered the team

This is a pretty mean-spirited idea on your part… yet it got me thinking quite a bit. My apologies to some of these people and their families…

QB: Jaren Hall RB: Matt Asiata WR: Laquon Treadwell, Ihmir Smith-Marsette (yes, he started one game) TE: Rhett Ellison OL: Dru Samia, TJ Clemmings, Danny Isidora, Andre Smith, Ed Ingram

DL: Jaleel Johnson, Jaquelin Roy ED: Jalyn Holmes, Hercules Mata’afa LB: Hardy Nickerson, Blake Lynch CB: Cordrea Tankersley, Chris Jones S: Jayron Kearse, George Iloka

@MrEd315 Which Vikings position groups will provide the most competition and keen interest during training camp?

The funny thing about this camp is that there isn’t a ton of areas where there are competitions. Depth receiver, depth tight end, depth cornerback, depth defensive tackle. Depth edge rusher. Is that about it?

Sometimes injuries come about like Mekhi Blackmon last year that open the door for competition but at the moment it’s mostly the back end of the roster.

@shaunbowm I'm curious to how well McCarthy throws that deft little screen play Simple throw but so hard to get a great screen play I'm not talking about the long throw to the wideout screen. But the little dump over DE. Also curious to how RB Mason's pass blocking was last year?

Mason was rarely asked to pass block last season (23 snaps) so I can’t say much about that.

I know what you mean with the screen. This is the most wildly specific thing about McCarthy that I’ve been asked so far. You get a neckroll for that. Honestly, I have no clue whether he can throw that effectively or not because I haven’t seen him attempt one. I can say that a positive screen game in 2025 would be a big, big help to Mr. McCarthy. They made progress with it last year. Gotta build on that.

@shaunbowm By going with McCarthy we are able to buttress the lineup with significant upgrades Now I think you upgraded to 11 wins? Because of unknown factor of how good McCarthy will be If you slotted Darnold into QB1 if he was willing 2take a paycut-not realistic What's the record?

I would probably still have them at 11 or 12 wins if Darnold had come back, I would just feel a lot more confident in the pick than I do right now. We know what Darnold could do with KOC and the lineup around him would have been a lot better, so there would have been a great chance he took them back to double-digit wins and the top of the NFC North. Let’s say that I’m 75% sure that the same 2025 roster with Darnold at the helm could win 11 or 12 games. I’m 58% sure that the McCarthy Vikings can do that. From what I’ve seen of McCarthy in camp/preseason last year and OTAs/minicamp this year. I’m fairly sure that this plan is going to work because he can lead the offense and the offense is filthy around him. Can I really say for sure with zero games played? Nope.

Nick M… Knowing everything you know now, what would have been your preferred outcome for the 2024 draft? Make that trade for Maye, trade even more for Daniels? Move up slightly for Penix, take Nix? Or just have it stay the same?

The streak of weekly JJ McCarthy/2024 draft trap questions continues. I think the results from last year showed us that it would have been really hard to mess up the 2024 draft as long as the Vikings came away with a QB. Maye showed a lot of talent and guts last year with an abominable team. If the Vikings had traded two firsts for him and he played in the KOC environment, he probably would have had a really big season (or would have gotten a chance to truly develop behind Darnold). Penix Jr.’s big-time throw rate was off the charts, which would have fit perfectly with KOC. Nix had a pretty lame set of weapons and still had a good season and made the playoffs and McCarthy has looked the part in every opportunity.

It’s not a hot take to say you’d be comfortable putting McCarthy up against any of them except Daniels. If there was a chance to go back and trade multiple firsts for Daniels, you’d take that in a heartbeat. Everything he showed last year screams future MVP and his supporting cast wasn’t even close to what the Vikings could have given him.

Eldon… Do you think Will Reichard can break the longest NFL field goal record this year? Maybe by kicking an 80 yd game winning fg to give the Vikings their first Lombardi trophy?

At least 80 yards. Maybe 85.

No, I don’t think that Reichard quite has enough leg to challenge the all-time record but I do see him having a good season. It’s so tough on rookie kickers because they do so much kicking leading up to the draft and then the season is way longer than they have ever had before. As long as he’s healthy, he should be top notch.

Here’s my thing about long field goals though: I’ve wondered if coach confidence in kickers making 50+ is misguided. Sure, kickers can make a high percentage of 50-yarders, but does that cause coaches to take the points rather than going for fourth downs around the 35 to 45-yard lines? Let’s say Reichard is capable of making 65% of his 50+ kicks — the other 35% basically hand the opponent points. We saw that in the Week 18 Lions game where KOC should have gone for it and then Detroit instantly put the game away. Even making the kick might be giving away points because converting the fourth down could lead to a touchdown.

I enjoy kickers who can bomb it as much as the next gentleman, I’m just thinking that it’s become a risk-aversion crutch because putting points on the board always feels like a positive drive and our expectations for 50+ kicks are so much higher these days that a miss is viewed as the kicker blowing it not the coach making a bad decision.

Griffin…. What would you consider as a successful season? The team is stacked, but we have a first year (starting) quarterback which could potentially limit the ceiling this year. Next year feels like the Super Bowl or Bust attitude with a year under JJ's belt. Is JJ's growth this year the biggest determining factor in a "successful" season?

I make zero exceptions or excuses for the expectations just because they have an inexperienced quarterback. It’s time to freaking win. No moral victory or fun story seasons. Win the division, win in the playoffs or it’s not enough. They have built this over three years and spent more money than God on free agents, there is no reason they can’t be right in the mix as the best team in the NFC.

And the reason I don’t put any caveats on that with the McCarthy thing is A) he is not a rookie B) they chose this path. They knew it was the time where the roster was peaking and decided to move on from Darnold. No free passes for being unproven when they had other options for proven QBs.

Also: There are not two types of situations for rosters. It’s not just Super Bowl or Bust or Full Rebuild. If they go 9-8 and lose in the Wild Card round, they don’t have to fold up the franchise and fire everybody but it will be an enormous disappointment.

It feels like a lot of Vikings fans aren’t comfortable looking at this season as go time. I say that there is no longer a need to kick the can down the road with expectations. This is a great roster and he’s a first-round QB. I’m not going to baby them with “it’s OK if you don’t win until next year.”

Bradley P… PFF didn’t have KOC ranked as one of the top 10 coaches in the league. Absurd to me to have Sean Payton as the second best coach in the league. What the hell happened to that once great website?

Everybody who did great content for PFF left. Steve Palazzolo, Sam Monson, Mike Renner, Austin Gayle, Eric Eager, George Chahrouri, Anthony Treash etc. Two of those guys are working in either pro or college football, another one is at CBS Sports, another at The Ringer and Sam + Steve have one of the most successful NFL pods out there. That’s a lot of talent to try to replace quickly.

Trevor Sikkema is doing a great job there as usual and I like Max Chadwick’s college football coverage but otherwise they have a lot of inexperienced people who are still learning on the job.

As far as the ranking, it was asinine not to include KOC, obviously. But let’s not get our underwear too crinkled up over one person’s rankings. That’s just one dude’s opinion, not the entire company. And PFF’s data side is still largely the same so the grading and charting systems are still reliable.

Kip N… Would a successful season be a Wild Card win? Would it be more like Jayden Daniels season last year in a Championship game? What does Purple Insider think ? Pie Chart idea ?

Everything in the “successful season” evaluation has context. If they win nine games and barely make the playoffs, beat a bad division winner by 3 points and then get blasted in the divisional round, are you going to celebrate? If they win 12 games, blow out their opponent in the Wild Card round and then lose on a last-second field goal to the Philadelphia Eagles, it’s absolutely a successful season.

McCarthy’s performance has to be baked in. If he’s really good and they have some bad injury luck, we aren’t going to say it was a failure. If he struggles and they grind out nine wins, it will leave some uncertainty going into the following year.

But I’ll keep saying it every time expectations come up: It’s time to win.

Arin J… Moss, Carter, and Reed formed the greatest trio of WR in Vikings history. If McCarthy has a successful season wins two playoff games how close will the Jefferson, Addison , and Nailor trio be compared? Will it be close?

Moss, Carter and Reed are basically untouchable. You’re talking about a top-five receiver of all time who completely altered the history of the Vikings franchise, a Hall of Famer and a four-time 1,000-yard receiver. It would be like if the Vikings had Jefferson, prime Stefon Diggs and prime Adam Thielen all at once.

Any time this comparison comes up, I like to remind folks that the 1998 offense was the best in NFL history at that point. That type of season is so, so rare.

The other part of the Three Deep is that TJ Hockenson is going to get the ball a lot in this offense. It will be tough for Addison and Nailor to put up massive numbers when there are many targets going underneath to the TE too.

So it won’t be Three Deep but it can be a dynamic attack with the ball being spread out often and this offense ranking among the best in the league.

Matt D… What’s your biggest GM head scratcher this offseason? Mine has to be how the Texans handled their OL. They had a terrible line last year and decided to add Cam Robinson and Ed Ingram, and then waited until pick 48 to take Ersery. Seems like a crazy strategy to me when you have a QB as talented as Stroud.

That’s a good nomination. The way the 49ers handled the draft was baffling. They need to keep building around their QB and they took two run-stuffing defensive tackles and an edge rusher with a lot of question marks. I’m not sure I fully understand the Packers’ approach either. They got Aaron Banks and Nate Hobbs in free agency and spent quite a bit of money on them but didn’t do much else. I would have thought this would be a year to make as big of a push as they could before Jordan Love becomes really expensive. And I’ll never understand the Steelers’ approach to the QB position. They could have made a play for Sam Darnold or Geno Smith and instead they go with 41-year-old Rodgers?

Pickle Enjoyer… Work with me here: rename the four NFC North teams according to what you think represents the areas. You cannot keep the same name (as the Vikings is perfect for Minnesota).

The Vikings truly are the perfect name for their region. I’m a fan of blues music and there’s an incredible history of that genre coming out of Chicago so maybe I’d name them the Chicago Blues. The Chicago Road Construction would be another option. Detroit has to be car related. Maybe the Detroit Thunderbirds or Mustangs or Vipers.

Green Bay Supper Clubs. Green Bay Cheddarheads. Chris Farley is from Wisconsin, so maybe they can be the Green Bay Black Sheep. Every time I go there, I narrowly avoid a deer. Green Bay Antelopes?

Minnesota teams are always something Norse, cold or vague concept (Wild?). Minnesota Mysterious Ice Norseman.

Nobody said creativity was my strong suit.

Never Played Madden…. CB is often cited as a weakness on this team. Are we under-appreciating Mekhi Blackmon? Is his injury or regression a major concern? His rookie PFF grade was over 70 while both Gilmore and Griffin were below 65 last year. It seems like if he is CB2 or gets beat out for CB2, he sets a solid standard. He might even be one of the league’s best CB3s if it comes to that.

I think Blackmon is a good player. He is aggressive and has good instincts. The issue with citing his PFF grade is that a cornerback can have two full seasons of 1,000 snaps at corner and have it still be considered a small sample size. He has half of a season. If I recall, folks were once very jazzed up about Cam Dantzler because he was good for the second half of 2020. It’s very possible that we might be under-appreciating Blackmon but it’s also fair to feel like we have almost no information about him at all.

The question is probably: How good to CBs really have to be in this defense? The ball has to come out quicker, which means that if they just rally to the football on underneath stuff and take advantage of mistakes downfield they can be really good.

Bradley P… Are there any worries that Brian Flores hasn’t been signed to a contract extension?

Maybe a little. I have to imagine that he’s going to want ownership to back up the Brinks truck after what he’s been able to do the last couple years. They haven’t shied away from forking up cash for any other needed extensions but this one could be trickier since he has been so valuable and would probably get huge dollars on the open market. The Wilfs could just decide to let this season play out and see where they’re at. It’s hard to imagine a better place to work for B-Flo than Minnesota right now.

Denton D… If McCarthy’s super power is calmness in the pocket and ability to see the field is that enough to compete with teams that have QBs with super power arm strength or speed ? Is that enough to elevate his game to a top 5 status in the league at some point during his career ?

We really don’t know yet if those things are actually his superpowers or not but hypothetically yes, those things can even the score with the freakshows to some extent. Joe Burrow, Jared Goff, CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott… none of these guys are Josh Allen in terms of arm strength or mobility but they execute at an extremely high level, see the field well, throw accurately and have shown to be top-notch when they have the right supporting cast around them. McCarthy can certainly be in that bucket.

Anglo Vike…. Assuming McCarthy plays as well as the fanbase expects him to. In that case how far into the season before the national talking heads start to come around and accept that he does have the arm strength and talent? 4 games? 6 games or would it take the whole season?

I am curious what the fans actually expect because it seems like some folks will be disappointed with anything less than him getting MVP votes.

The national talker folks just blow with the wind. If he’s good in Week 1, he will be a big star, if he’s bad in Week 2 they will declare that the Vikings should be worried he’s a bust. That’s just what they do. Why? No idea. I miss people like John Clayton being on TV.

Anyway, I wouldn’t worry about what the national narrative is about McCarthy. The best-case scenario is that somebody is yelling that he’s overrated because the roster and coaching are so good. That means he’s made it.

TheDude… Saw your podcast with Steve Palazzolo.. He seems really, really high on Jalen Redmond. Did you get a reason from him why he is so excited?

Probably because Redmond had a 77.2 PFF grade last year in 208 snaps. We all saw his ability to get into the backfield. I’m with Steve that he deserves talk as another key rotational piece if he can carry that over to a bigger role.

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