Friday Mailbag: What's a success for the Vikings in 2024?

Vikings fans are interested in the implications of a winning or losing season

Photo courtesy Minnesota Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone. One more preseason game, thank goodness. We’re almost there. Let’s find out what’s on your minds…

@Skol_80_84 There’s no way that KOC and Kwesi don’t get more time, right? Not perfect by any stretch, but given the constraints due to both ownership expectations and player injuries, I feel like they’ve acquitted themselves well

The most important thing is that ownership sees the plan through thick and thin until they can say with total certainty whether it worked or it didn’t work. Drafting McCarthy and then not giving O’Connell the ability to fully develop him would be a big mistake. Historically it takes until Year 3 of a quarterback’s career to have a good sense for what they are going to be. Giving this brass at least through 2026 feels like enough time to be able to say it’s working or not.

From the bigger picture, there was no plausible route to go from keeping their veterans in 2022 to clearing out contracts in 2023 to somehow being a Super Bowl contender this year. It was always going to be a multi-year project and the centerpiece of that project was the kid drafted 10th overall who looked great in training camp and preseason. Getting the roster to the point where they have star talent and a large chunk of cap space going into next year gives them a very good chance to have a very strong top-to-bottom roster by 2025.

That said, I respect the Wilfs’ desire to win. If I was in their shoes and spent a gazillion dollars on Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Aaron Jones and Stephone Gilmore, I don’t think I’d be able to just shrug my shoulders at a 6-win season.

Kyle S… Ed Ingram’s starting spot hasn’t been challenged, but he’s had to play in the preseason. How do the Vikings view him and how likely is it that he could improve?

The fact that O’Connell said repeatedly that there was going to be a competition at right guard and moved Risner over there early in camp made me think that they were serious about Ingram being challenged. But Risner got banged up and we haven’t seen much of him in camp, which took away any chance at a competition and may have been part of the reason Ingram played so much. If Ingram had played OK in the preseason games, we probably wouldn’t have made anything of it but he graded a 16.0 out of 100 in 40 snaps. That’s the worst pass blocking grade on the whole team. Not exactly inspiring stuff.

It feels like what we saw from him last year is who he’s going to be. Over two years he’s been about at the same level that you’d expect from a quality backup who’s playing too much. To put that sentiment in context: Ingram graded a 59.5 overall and allowed 42 QB pressures in 2023. Tom Compton, a backup playing too many snaps in 2018, graded 62.4 and gave up 34 pressures.

Never Played Madden… Is there any hope that Najee Thompson returns? There hasn’t been much news about his injury or release. I’m not sure there is room on this roster for such a special teams specialist but he was excellent last year.

It’s possible that once he’s healthy the Vikings bring him back. He was a great story last year and he’s a fearless dude who you have to respect. However, his play wasn’t a difference maker to the point that I would move anyone who can actually play defense. He played 193 snaps in 2023 and graded 72.9 by PFF. There were 83 players who played at least 300 snaps and 57 of those guys had higher grades.

@JoshuaR_Smith This pass-rush group looks like it’s going to be pretty fun. Who will lead the 2024 Vikings in sacks, and how many?

I’m going to go with the obvious answer: Jonathan Greenard will lead the Vikings in sacks with 9.5. There might be a shade of regression from his career-high 2023 but he will still be good. They strike me as a similar team to Flores’ 2021 Miami defense that posted 48 sacks without anyone hitting double digits. I expect the sackin’ to be spread out between Greenard, Van Ginkel, Jones, Pace Jr., Metellus, Cashman and Smith with some Pat Jones and Jihad Ward mixed in.

@AechErvin With blackmon out, who is our starting slot corner and who are the backups?

The starting slot corner is also the starting outside corner: Byron Murphy Jr. When they go into a nickel package, Shaq Griffin is going to play on the outside with Stephon Gilmore and Murphy Jr. is going to kick inside. I’m guessing Fabian Moreau and Akayleb Evans will be the outside backups but they don’t really have a nickel backup. That may end up being Josh Metellus. Maybe they keep Bobby McCain on the roster because he’s played nickel before or play Jay Ward at that spot in case of emergency.

@90centmentalMN Flores is being frozen out by the league much the same way Kaepernick was. CK maybe wasn't a HOF QB, but he could surely be a backup. Flores is a very talented coach. The owners seem to struggle with these racial issues, and their hiring practices are definitely suspect. Thoughts?

Yeah. My suspicion is that the Kaep issue was about sending a message to the players about who was in charge. Historically the NFL has been pretty miserable when it comes to its hiring practices — and that’s not just my opinion, it’s a recognized fact by the league. That’s why they created the Rooney Rule and why they started a program to give minority coaches an opportunity to meet with owners and executives. Matt Daniels and Keenan McCardell participated prior to 2023.

The Flores thing is complicated. The NFL giving bogus interviews to satisfy the Rooney Rule was a real thing. How do you stop that from happening? I have no idea. But I do know that challenging the owners like that is very likely going to result in none of them making Flores the front door to their franchise. And, of course, Tua gave them all the plausible deniability they need with his comments.

I also think that Flores’ fight moved the problem with minority coaches not getting a fair shake to the front of the league’s mind and may have played a role in more coaches being hired.

@alexjjlarsen What's your take on keeping players on the roster to prevent other teams from claiming them off waivers?

Overrated. Teams are always terrified of losing guys but they rarely do and if we’re talking about a guy that’s on the very edge of the roster anyway then his chances are extremely low to become irreplaceable somewhere else. A lot of the Vikings who went from nothing to something like Josh Metellus, Adam Thielen or Anthony Harris were cut out of camp and made the practice squad before working their way up. It’s not like teams have anything to go off except preseason when trying to identify which players they should steal and then they have to put that player on their own 53 and cut someone else. Just keep the players who belong and don’t fret about “poaching.”

@VivekK1216 Does the preseason wins mean that we finally have better depth than previous years? I know Zimmer mentioned in 2021 this team is top heavy and we’ve seen the same in 2022 as well

Nah, preseason wins mean absolutely nothing. The Commanders went undefeated in the preseason last year and had the second worst record in the league. We’re talking about games now being 60% determined by players with no chance to make the roster. Back when Zimmer started most of the league was playing starters for a quarter or half and maybe you saw a little more of what a team actually looked like and the W-L record didn’t matter then either.

I’m not sure they do have better depth than previous years. The only areas the Vikings have depth is safety, edge rusher and tackle. They are one bump or bruise at most spots from being in a tough spot.

@roypowell Is it too early to start looking at the potential FA guards, CB’s, or DT’s for next off season? Would love to see a wishlist. Not punting on this season, but the window opens next year.

I did a mock 2025 free agency earlier this offseason so it’s definitely not too early.

Since JJ’s injury I have felt a lot of folks wanting to throw this season away and move on to next year. Obviously it’s tough to argue with the disappointment everyone feels about not being able to see what he could do but we overestimate our ability to know what’s going to happen in the upcoming season. Last year three teams that had over-unders of 6.5 in the preseason make the playoffs. A 7.5 team made the playoffs and another 6.5 team missed the postseason on the final day of the year. You never know what’s going to happen.

@Jordan_Fisk If you knew a rookie kicker was gonna turn into Justin Tucker, how early is acceptable to draft him?

I would take that player in the second round. In the peak of his career from 2016-2021 Tucker made 196 of 210 attempts (93.3%). The average field goal percentage last year was 85.9%, which would be 180 out of 210 without adjusting for distance. Making 16 more kicks than average over six years is pretty darn useful and having confidence in your kicker beyond 50 at all times can be a difference maker. But that’s not enough to pass up on a first-round player that might become Justin Jefferson or Christian Darrisaw.

@HightowerRandy You have a an afternoon to watch football from the couch or your favorite chair on TV. What are your go to snacks and drink of choice?

I don’t have a particularly inspiring vibe when I’m watching football. Diet Dr. Pepper, pizza if I’m lucky, maybe some pretzels or gold fish. I sit on the couch with my lap top and work on stuff. I wish I could tell you that I watch games with a neck roll and Alabama helmet from 1967 while facetiming NFL legends but I’m certain that many of you have much cooler fan cave type setups and exotic snacks than me.

@Jake_Frac What in your opinion has led to Brian Asamoah's regression? If I recall correctly, we all were as excited about him after his 1st season as we were about Ivan pace jr, but he's seemingly fallen out of favor.

I don’t think we can call it a regression when he only played 121 snaps in 2022. He had a couple run stops and the fumble he caused against the Giants but there wasn’t a big enough sample to really know anything about how he would shake out career wise. Because they didn’t sign anyone other than keeping Hicks in 2023 there was some intrigue around him because we figured they must have wanted Asamoah to win the job if they didn’t bring in obvious challengers. But when Pace Jr. took it away it was pretty clear Asamoah wasn’t getting it back. His size seems to be the biggest thing. It’s just really hard to battle OL at 6-foot, 226 pounds. Pace Jr. weighs more and is several inches shorter, making him more compact and he gets below linemen making him tough to block.

@jeffintokyo1 As for the 53 and OL... I would take Robinson over Jurgens... Jurgens has looked underpowered. Robinson seems like he could have a role now. What do you think?

I struggled with that one when I did a 53-man projection. I like Robinson. He’s a mammoth dude who also scored great PFF pass blocking grades last year in preseason for the Eagles. I was thinking Jurgens might have more positional flexibility as a guard/center and if Dan Feeney is banged up then he’s the only one outside of Bradbury who can play center. Robinson definitely caught my attention though. They might find a way to keep him. Maybe he’s one of those linemen who flies under the radar until they catch on with the right team.

@CJMcAulay Talk me out of: The season turns into a “natural tank” and it costs us KOC/Kwesi and McCarthy has to adapt to a new coach before he even starts and Jefferson demands a trade and…