Way-too-early 2025 free agency mock

Mock draft? Nah. Let's look into the future at what next year's free agency might look like for the Vikings

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By Matthew Coller

I’ll be honest: In my entire lifetime, I have never read a mock draft for the following year right after the NFL Draft wraps up.

The first one that I tried — a “way-too-early” mock from last year that I checked right before writing this story — had the Houston Texans giving up the No. 2 overall pick to the Arizona Cardinals and a fifth-round linebacker going 10th overall. If you are wondering, the Vikings picked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers in that iteration and neither Jayden Daniels, JJ McCarthy or Bo Nix were mentioned.

We all love mocks but trying to guess next year’s draft when the mock drafts from the day before the draft are only about 20% right is a bridge too far.

How about we take a slightly different angle. We know that the Minnesota Vikings have a two-year plan in which they will aim to go hog wild in free agency after this year, which is the final season that Kirk Cousins’ dead cap money is on the books.

Who do we expect to be on the market when it comes time for the Vikings to spend, spend, spend? Who will they have to re-sign in order to keep the core of the squad together? Let’s look at a few versions of way-too-early 2025 free agency mock drafts to get a sense for what the Vikings will be facing down the road.

First, the Vikings’ key free agents after 2024. Assuming they are ready to turn the keys over to JJ McCarthy, we can figure Sam Darnold will head yonder in hopes of another starting gig. The Vikings will also do the will-he-retire dance again with Harrison Smith.

Beyond those two, running back Aaron Jones, defensive tackle Harrison Phillips, safety Cam Bynum and corners Byron Murphy Jr. and Shaq Griffin are the most vital pieces on the 2024 free agency list. Bynum would appear to be the most likely to return as well as Murphy Jr., who is still only 25 years old.

In the role player category, there aren’t many players who could suddenly become expensive but there are a handful whose return is plausible like Brandon Powell, Johnny Mundt, Jonathan Bullard, Jerry Tillery, Dan Feeney, David Quessenberry and Jonah Williams. Maybe RB Kene Nwangwu has a valuable kick returning season and becomes a valuable asset.

All in all, if the Vikings re-signed Bynum and Murphy Jr. at relatively average prices, they could end up paying something like $8 million per year to Bynum and $12 million to Murphy Jr.

That’s a small chunk out of their projected cap space in 2025 but it’s a near lock that they will move money around to lower Brian O’Neill’s $26 million cap hit. They can also save significant amounts with restructures for TJ Hockenson and Jonathan Greenard if needed, according to OverTheCap.com.

It’s hard to put an exact guess on the Vikings’ total cap space because Justin Jefferson’s extension will play into the equation but we can safely say that they will be able to put an offer on the table for any player they want.

So let’s look at some plans based on players who are A) set to hit free agency B) realistic to actually become free agents C) fit the Vikings’ projected needs based on what they are expected to have in place after the 2024 season.

PLAN 1: All in on a guard

Vikings sign: RB Javonte Williams, WR Van Jefferson, G Trey Smith, CB Benjamin St-Juste, DT Osa Odighizuwa

Here the Vikings are putting emphasis on surrounding McCarthy with even more talent than he already has on offense. Smith has been a consistently strong guard who could be a massive difference maker when paired with either one of the Vikings’ tackles (though he plays the right side presently). Williams and Jefferson have been solid contributors to offenses at times throughout their careers. St-Juste may have more talent than has been allowed to flourish in Washington and Odighizuwa is underrated with 43 pressures last season (21st among DT).

In this case, the overall protection for the QB would be improved but the Vikings would not land a true difference maker on defense. That would mean they would have to draft an interior D-lineman or cornerback and aim to develop other players at those positions of need during the 2024 season.

PLAN 2: The big cornerback

Vikings sign: RB Jaylen Warren, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, G Will Hernandez, CB AJ Terrell, DT Milton Williams

Here the Vikings grab a dynamic running back off the market in Warren, who has shared the backfield with Najee Harris and averaged 5.1 yards per carry in 226 attempts. They grab a guard in Hernandez, who was a darling of Vikings fans back in the 2018 draft and has become a quality starter for the Giants and Cardinals. The big target here is AJ Terrell, an excellent corner in his prime (currently 25). Terrell hasn’t repeated his incredible 2021 season over the last two years but overall he was still top-20 last year.

This plot would add reasonable role players to the offense and open up Brian Flores to doing things on defense that he would not dream about doing without a shutdown corner. It might be the step between above average and excellent for his group.

PLAN 3: Quality DT and CB

Vikings sign: RB Chuba Hubbard, G Aaron Banks, WR Justin Watson, DT BJ Hill, CB DJ Reed

As is the situation every year, there aren’t many top-notch defensive tackles set to hit the market. The Vikings could go after Kenny Clark just to keep the tradition alive of signing aging former Packers but instead they snag Hill, a consistent disrupter in the middle who plays tons of snaps and keeps improving his pass rush numbers. They also land the Jets’ CB2 and several average offensive talents.

This plan goes all-in on building the best possible defense the Vikings can get by landing two of the top players on the market.

Build your own 2025 free agency mock by looking at the free agent list here

The bottom line

If you were saying throughout the mock that many of these players will not be available in free agency next year, you might be right, but some of them definitely will hit the market.

In years prior to the 2024 free agency period, the Vikings not only couldn’t chase the biggest names on the market, they also couldn’t add solid role players. In all of our mocks, the Vikings scored at least one different star and numerous role players to fill positions of need.

We are too far away to say with any certainty if these will be the targets but we can project that the Vikings should be able to use all that fresh cap space to take the roster to another level.

I guess we’ll see in 2025.

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