Friday mailbag: Wentz trade, potential offseason surprises and draft picks

Vikings fans are ready for some movement this offseason. When will it start?

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By Matthew Coller and Sam Ekstrom

Happy Friday, everyone. Exciting times, right?

This feels like the calm before the storm and that’s pretty well reflected in the questions here in the Friday mailbag, which mostly focus on the direction of the offseason.

This is also pretty cool because it’s the first Friday Mailbag with Sam Ekstrom also answering questions. So off we go…

@Ragnarskingdom Apologies if you already did this in some form but... could you each share 1 player that may not be on the Vikings in 2021 that would catch most fans by surprise or we may not see coming?

Matthew:

Everyone has probably come to terms with the (remote) possibility that Danielle Hunter could be moved. Same with guys like Reiff and Rudolph. The biggest shocker would be Harrison Smith.

There hasn’t been any indication that Smith could be traded but having been around Harrison for five years now, if he wanted to be moved rather than sign an extension (which is the most likely scenario), you’d never heard about it. I was never offended by Stefon Diggs’s strange tweets but that’s just not something Smith would do. He would go to them privately and ask to be sent somewhere else.

This isn’t “sources say” or anything on Smith but I know he was extremely upset about how last year went for the defense. I wouldn’t be completely floored if he did want to go since so many players from the 2017 group have gone elsewhere or retired.

@tannerAreed: I’ll ask the obligatory Kirk trade question. Now that we’ve seen the Broncos on the market for a “top-tier” QB, and the Colts trading for Wentz, does this change anything about trading Kirk?

Sam:

As far as the Broncos rumor, that’s a team that could absorb Cousins’ contract without having to finagle the books or send any massive contracts in return. They’ve got a bunch of a receivers on rookie deals that desperately need a quality quarterback to squeeze the most out of that offense (coordinated by Pat Shurmur, by the way).

Do I think that it’s wise for George Paton’s first mega-move to be acquiring his old team’s uber-expensive former quarterback? No. Then again, the Broncos have been snakebit at QB since Peyton Manning left and may not exactly believe in Drew Lock after he went 4-9 last year. Acquiring Cousins would mean doing the Vikings the favor of taking on a huge contract, so Minnesota probably wouldn’t get the Broncos’ ninth overall pick in return, but snagging No. 40 overall would be a solid consolation.

Carson Wentz going for a third-round pick and future second sets a nice anchor, since Cousins would clearly be a more valued commodity than Wentz, who got traded at his lowest point.

@benjackson0812: 3 years in what’s your general sense about how the players feel about Cousins?? Do they like playing with him??

Sam:

This is a question that requires some conjecture because everything that gets said to the media is generally positive. That leaves us to use our tools of observation and the sometimes-dangerous social media sleuthing.

I think the Diggs/Thielen vs. Cousins “rift” that stemmed from the mini-meltdown on the sideline in Week 17 of 2018 was overblown because it made a good gif. And the more we learn about Diggs’ dissatisfaction about the 2019 season, it seems like he was mostly upset with the coaching staff for misleading him about the offense’s direction. Not with Cousins.

That doesn’t mean everything is perfect since there have been some occasional unfiltered moments that indicate otherwise. Justin Jefferson’s hot-mic expletive after an incompletion in the Bears game was a bit eye-opening, and Everson Griffen’s series of tweets about Cousins came out of left field.

I don’t think Cousins is necessarily a great galvanizer. He can appear aloof at times on the sideline, especially when things aren’t going well on the field, and he seems uncomfortable addressing the media after losses. It’s unclear how that plays out in locker room settings and meeting rooms during the week, but he may not garner the same respect as other veterans on the team. It did appear, though, that as the 2020 season went along, Cousins got more and more demonstrative with teammates, which was a change. Maybe that’s the Cousins we’ll see going forward, and maybe that earns him more universal respect.

My best answer would be that Cousins certainly has allies in his corner but doesn’t capture the locker room the same way others in his position might.

@Ragnarskingdom From Schefters tweet about the salary cap... what does that bode in terms of the Vikings? Does this mean very unlikely to add any high end free agents?

Matthew:

Schefter tweeted that the salary minimum was going to be about $180 million, which means you could safely guess the cap will be around $190. That would put the Vikings right at the cap, meaning it’ll be all about the decisions they make on guys like Riley Reiff, Danielle Hunter, Kyle Rudolph, Anthony Barr, Harrison Smith etc.

They’ll be able to create enough space to either sign a handful of bargain players to fill out the roster or chase a big fish or two (see Thursday’s article for some names there).

But whether they can really chase top guys depends on how much they’re willing to chop off the current group. There’s only so many snaps you can replace in an offseason and have it work. We found that out last year. It’s really hard to switch out a bunch of good players and expect the same or better results.

To me, the swing guy to all of this is Riley Reiff. He’d create more than $11 million in space if he’s cut. That would open the door to making some strong runs at free agents. If he stays, I don’t see how they could do it, even with some restructures.

@AleCozz1: Should we start talking more about the possibility of the Vikings picking one of the top 3 consensus CBs in round one? The NFL puts a premium on the trenches in the draft, so I could see the top D-line and O-line options being off the board

Sam:

Patrick Surtain II, the boundary corner out of Alabama, who would be a terrific fit if the Vikings view Jeff Gladney as a nickel long term. If there’s one position where the Vikings hoard prospects, it’s cornerback. And it’s entirely possible the Vikings are in position to take the second best corner available because of how top-heavy the first round is going to be with quarterbacks and receivers. I’m on the record as saying the Vikings shouldn’t be content at corner with injury-prone Cameron Dantzler, injury-prone Mike Hughes and still-figuring-it-out Jeff Gladney.

To your point about offensive and defensive line prospects being off the board, I’d be surprised if more than a couple top offensive tackles and maybe one edge rusher are off the board at 14. The Vikings are positioned really well to snag a good player at D-line, O-line or corner, which could present trade-back options, especially if teams are desperate to move up and grab one of the last elite receivers

From Jeff via email: Was wondering how you personally prepare for the draft? With so much information out there, I previously used to "zone in" on analysis done by Mayock and Gruden.  However they are no longer willing to share their thoughts with the masses!  

Do you personally have any mock drafts that you particularly pay attention to Matthew?  I used to be a big fan of Mayock's sole mock round 1 draft picks and his reasoning behind each one.  Now I like to see what Daniel Jeremiah comes up with as well as Kevin Hanson.

Matthew:

To borrow from the football people: It’s a process.

After the season ends, I start reading as much as I can from guys like Eric Edholm, Dane Brugler, Mike Renner, Chris Trapasso and start listening to the PFF and Daniel Jeremiah’s podcasts. It’s important to me to listen to people with credibility who are well connected and proven over a long time to be giving you the right information. The best analysts present all the possibilities with players. Here’s what they could be, here’s what could derail them, here’s which teams could be their best fits, here’s some intangible stuff etc.

I’ll start figuring out who the likely top 10 players are beyond the QBs and then start doing draft simulations on PFF to get a sense for how the draft board might play out and some of the names that I need to learn.

Then I start bringing people on my show and learn as much as I can from them. By the end of April, I usually have a good handle over about 100 or so players.

Let's say you discover a great treasure of some kind and suddenly have an absurd amount of money, that allows you to buy the Vikings tomorrow. Peace out, Wilfs. Now, newly minted Vikings owner Matthew Coller is looking to make his mark on the organization. Where do you start? Is Mike Zimmer still your coach? Do you retain Rick Spielman? What would his mandate be? Your only goal is to bring a Super Bowl to Minnesota, whether that's in 2021 or 2028.

Matthew:

I keep hoping that great treasure is going to be my old football cards but Jake Plummer and Sam Gash Pro Set cards still aren’t worth much.

I suppose if I owned the team, I’d start with a meeting with the brass and see if we can come to an agreement on the same vision. You can guess what I’m going to want…. to be more aggressive with spending on the offense and be as progressive and modern as we can be with personnel decisions and strategy. That means more weapons, pass blockers up front and pass-first approach. That doesn’t mean a full system change just an approach more focused on what’s statistically proving to win. That might not be something Zimmer could get on board with but if he was, we could see how it went. I’d probably want to see how it went with a front office focused more on offensive spending and drafting.

Firing the coach and GM are sometimes appropriate but it’s not always the best solution. If you get stuck in a rut with incompetent people in those positions, you end up in the tank for a long time (see: New York teams).

@thomasmckoskey: What are your thoughts on Geno Atkins joining the Vikings if he’s released? He knows Zimmer and Guenther’s defense and if he’s recovered from shoulder surgery he could be the 3-tech DT the Vikings have been missing. He will be 33 to start the season, so that is concerning.

Sam:

Yeah, I’d take a run at him! Based on the coaching connections here, it makes sense that Atkins would have serious interest in joining the Vikings, which helps the sales pitch. You don’t give up on a player with 75.5 career sacks after one bad season… but you definitely try to sign him to a bargain deal. Maybe Atkins can view the Vikings like Sheldon Richardson did — a place where he can re-up his value and get paid more next season when the cap increases.

Jose via DM: Given the young age of new OC Klint Kubiak, do you think Zimmer has the trust on him and his experience to be the Head-Coach-Offense he needs to (or tries to) have as OC? Or should we expect the Vikings to hire an offensive mentor/counselor as Gary Kubiak was for Stefanski?

Matthew:

I can’t see Klint having a lot of freedom. Zimmer has a very clear vision of what he wants on offense and that’s what they’re going to do. Klint may be able to implement some more modern things like motions and such but that staff is still Gary’s guys so the fundamentals are likely to stay the same. If Gary himself isn’t the advisor, I might guess Rick Dennison the O-line coach and former OC under Gary ends up with that type of role.

@vikingsjazzfan: What off-season move would indicate that Zimmer and Spielman feel good about their job security?

Sam:

I think any quarterback move that ships off Cousins for a lesser quarterback and/or a package of picks (i.e., Garoppolo deal) would tell us that. It would make the team vulnerable to a lower floor in 2021 and likely put Spielman and Zimmer on the hook for whoever becomes the quarterback of the future. They’re not making that move unless they feel confident about reaching the 2022 season at least. Reminder: Their contracts run through 2023.

Aaron via DM: If Zimmer thinks the offense is great and the real problem is DEF (and ST…you know he probably blames Maalouf for a couple losses), what DEF results would he need to create if offense (ranking/efficiency/stats) stayed EXACTLY the same as last season? E.G. Points allowed would need to be ____. Stuff like that…

Matthew:

If I’m understanding the question right, you mean: If the offense is 11th again, how much better would the defense have to be in order to be a legitimate contender.

We can look at that as a point differential matter. The final four teams were all better than plus-100. Even in years where offense was not as explosive league wide, usually the teams that are left standing are plus-100. Quick math: The Vikings allowed 475 points last year and were minus-45 in point differential. Let’s factor for special teams and assume they’re 30 points better (it has to be better, right?) and call it about 100 points better on defense. That’s around one fewer touchdown allowed per game.

One thing that would help is the offense not turning the ball over as much. They were 22nd in turnover percentage. The defense had the worst starting field position in the league. That’s killer.

So let’s say that regresses in a good way and they have to be 75 points better as a pass defense. By Expected Points Added on pass defense, that would be a jump of ranking 25th to somewhere between 8th and 10th.

Possible? Yes. But it’ll take some things going right like Hunter returning, good free agent signings, progress from Dantzler/Gladney.

@Blazen1978 Excuse me if too personal - have you ever got into heated discussion with your lovely wife , also sport journalist , over either ‘s sport take?

Matthew:

Oh yeah. The first time we met, we argued about sports. Our first date was playing basketball one-on-one. Sports opinions make up a very high percentage of things we say to each other on a given day so we definitely debate things. She’s competitive and smart, so if I’m going to argue, I better be making a good case.

@Blazen1978 Looks like the - alleged- proposed deal between 49ers (Kirk for Jimmy + draft picks) didn’t go through. Were Vikings too greedy, or it was not good deal at all?

Matthew:

We’re still a month away from free agency and several months from the draft. Anything could happen but I have never felt there was anything to the rumors about Cousins/San Francisco. Maybe I’ll be proven wrong, who knows.

If it doesn’t happen, it will probably a case of neither team really needing to make this deal. The Eagles had to trade Wentz. The Lions had to trade Stafford. The Vikings and 49ers will only move their QB if it’s a great deal. If the 49ers trade a QB that took them to the Super Bowl, it better be really good for them. If the Vikings trade a QB they extended, it has to be really good for them. Deals that are really good for both teams are hard to get worked out.

@IvanCarter9 I remain utterly fascinated by team ownership. As far as I can tell, the Wilfs leak nothing. Any idea how often they speak with Spielman/Zimmer? Is it strictly hands off, hire 'em and stay out of the way? How long a leash do Spielman/Zimm have here?

Matthew:

My understanding is that they are dialed into everything that’s going on and communicate regularly with the brass but beyond that, I can only put together puzzle pieces on actions (like the long process of getting them extended and lack of overall playoff wins in the Zimmer era, even if one was Blair Walsh’s fault).

It does appear we are getting to the point where the same processes and same results will eventually get old.

@alrmpls What is a practical number of selections for the Vikings to make in the 2021 draft? For example, if the Vikings trade down several times and wind up with 20 picks, does it make sense to add that many drafted players to the roster?

Matthew:

I think of the draft like gambling. You sometimes make a bet that has a good chance to work out but doesn’t exactly net you a ton. Like betting Patrick Mahomes for MVP. Other times you make long shots that could be a boom if they hit. Like taking Matt Ryan for MVP. With the many trades down, the Vikings have tried to take a bunch 1-in-50 bets in the fifth instead of a handful of 1-in-15 bets in the third. I’m not sure the math works out exactly but I can see the case for it. However, when you get to the 1-in-200 bets in the seventh round, those probably aren’t worth it.

The goal is to get the most value (or money, in betting). Is a mid-third round pick more likely to give you value than a late-third and sixth? Probably. So you ideally want to have the best accumulation of bets and then make those bets at the right positions. Don’t draft a run-stuffing linebacker in the fourth because the ceiling on that pick is low. Long snapper, kicker, punter, punt returner. Not good bets because the return is low even if it hits.

@Antigravity 19 Picking up steam, Matt Miller’s latest (mock draft has the Vikings picking Jaylen Waddle). Don’t love it quite as much as Smith, but would still be exciting

Matthew:

If we’re being honest, who can really know which one of those guys is going to be better in the NFL? I like Waddle more because he’s a ridiculous playmaker with the ball in his hands but they’re both top-10 type prospects. It is interesting that two of the top draft analysts made that move to a receiver this week. To me, it’s a ticket to building a top-five offense. But convincing them to pass on the defensive side seems really unlikely still. You’re right though, it’s interesting seeing the WR3 train gaining passengers.

@SethHilgert Vikings 1st round pick: move up, stay or try to trade back?

Matthew:

Team Trade Back. I mean, unless you’re getting a QB or the last great player of a position (say, like wide receiver????), picking up more draft capital and losing nothing in terms of the quality of prospect is a good play. Say you really like Christian Barmore and two other defensive ends who will go in the 20s. Trade back, see if Barmore is still there, if not take one of the other guys and try to pick up enough capital to get back into the second round.

That said, if something crazy happened and Sewell or Chase were on the board a few spots up, it’s worth it to trade up.

@alrmpls: What is a practical number of selections for the Vikings to make in the 2021 draft? For example, if the Vikings trade down several times and wind up with 20 picks, does it make sense to add that many drafted players to the roster?

Sam:

I’d prepare yourself for another year of double digits, but if the Vikings wind up with 20 it means they didn’t move up and get a second-round pick, which seems foolish considering all their mid-round draft capital. Based on the oft-referenced trade-value chart, Minnesota would probably have to part with a third- and fourth-round pick at minimum to move into the second round, and probably a little more. Assuming they get a fourth-round compensatory pick as most assume, they’ll have four fourth-round picks, which I’m sure Spielman will enjoy tossing around.

Practically speaking, though, the Vikings would have a tough time filling out their roster if they didn’t have a big draft class. Usually Minnesota is quite active finding prospects from other leagues like the CFL, XFL, AAF, etc. Those seasons didn’t occur in 2020, meaning fewer pre-free agency pickups. After likely cutting a few players at the start of free agency, the Vikings will have between 53-55 players on the roster. Let’s say they spend their minimal money thriftily and acquire 10 free agents between in-house and outside signings. That still leaves over 25 roster spots to fill before the season, and they’d probably prefer to draft most of those players versus signing a massive UDFA class.

I think Spielman takes a circuitous path to 12 picks.

@thadeaus If a Zach Wilson or Justin Fields falls to 10/11 you have to make that trade up to get him, right? Regardless of what you planned, feels hard to pass up a potential 10-15 year franchise QB just so you don't rock the QB room boat.

Matthew:

Oh hey, just the scenario I was talking about. If Zach Wilson or Justin Fields drops to 10, it’ll be bananas. These guys aren’t Dwayne Haskins or Tua. They’re top flight QB prospects. So if either got into that range, you’d have a bunch of teams fighting over each other to trade up. But the Vikings would want to be in that mix.

It’s not even a slam on Cousins to say that a QB whose contract runs out after 2022 and has a $45 million cap hit isn’t so locked into a job that you’d run away from a top draft pick.

@__Peter_Man__ Pass blocking is important, right?

Matthew:

Yes but we always seem to think pass blocking is entirely about the five fat guys and not a bunch of different factors all woven in, like the QB, scheme, defensive schedule etc.

@rgonzalez021991 You think cousins played better because there were little to no fans in the stadium so it took some pressure off of him?

Matthew:

I think that no fans effect made life easier on all QBs and the crazy statistics that QBs put up were reflective of that. I do not think he was intimidated by his own fans. Against Denver in 2019, he was booed off the field and then came back to win from down 20 in the second half. This year with no fans he threw three picks against the Falcons in a brutal loss. I believe we were also having the “can Kirk lead a game-winning drive” debate for a bit there after they lost at home to Dallas. The thing about Cousins is that he’s pretty much exactly the same every year, for better or worse.

@BanTRUMPahNVM We all know we're trading back. What is your guess on how many selections we make? Another new record?

Matthew:

I’ll set the over/under at 12.5. There’s a Day 3 game that would have some drama.

@eleysium How does the Mike Zimmer era end?

Matthew:

He wins the Super Bowl, embraces Shamar Stephen and announces his retirement?

Honestly, it’s anybody’s guess. If you told me that by Week 6 next year they were making Rick Dennison the interim head coach, I wouldn’t be totally shocked and if you told me Zimmer hung ‘em up after the 2027 season, I wouldn’t be totally shocked. One thing I know about Zimmer is that he’s going to fight to the death trying to make this team win next year and every time they’ve been down, they bounce back. You can criticize a lot about him but never question how badly he wants it.

I’d need a lot more information — some we’ll get in free agency/draft, some we’ll never get from ownership — to have a more accurate answer. Best guess is they make the playoffs in 2021 and then who knows what happens from there.

@PalpatinesRobes Even though this will never ever happen, what is Cousins' trade value in light of the Wentz trade?

Matthew:

Eye of the beholder man. What we know from Stafford and Wentz deals is that teams believe in their own evaluations for these guys more than stats. They see Stafford as better than Cousins, Goff as not being very good, Wentz having reason to trade away assets. Going off Mike Sando’s QB Tiers, where he interviews people around the league and Cousins inevitably ends up being a high-end Tier 3 QB, it’s hard to see anybody throwing high draft picks at the Vikings. Maybe a second-round pick? He also has a crazy amount of guaranteed money left and owners don’t love guaranteed money being left because they gotta pay it if something goes wrong.

@vikesfan1930 What type of trade would the vikings accept from Denver for Kirk? If they do trade Kirk, which QB do they draft?

Matthew:

It’s really hard to say how high the bar would have to be for the Vikings to actually pull the trigger. I don’t see how they can just ship him off for draft picks unless they secretly have convinced Andrew Luck to become a Viking (never count anything out!). They would have to already have an answer. Drew Lock isn’t good so they wouldn’t want him. Someone like Fitzpatrick or Minshew doesn’t seem likely and is a pretty big drop off. Drafting a guy comes along with the risk that it doesn’t work out and everyone gets fired — that is unless ownership is going to give the brass a few years rather than the hot seat in 2021.

Still, if they trade Cousins for a draft pick right after giving him the extension, might as well hand in the letter of resignation. That’s why the Jimmy G idea is the only one that’s ever really made some sense.

@rk2022 are you expecting the flood gates to open after the Wentz trade

Matthew:

There’s so much to still be done but it feels like when we get closer to the draft we’ll get a resolution on DeShaun Watson and then it’ll go wild. If you’re a team like the Panthers that wants Watson, you’re not doing anything until you know if you have a chance at him or not. Same with lots of teams who would move their QBs in a second (like the Raiders) for Watson.

I will say that it’s great that the moves never end. There isn’t a dead period. Every day you wake up there’s a chance something nuts happens in the NFL so hopefully the flood gates do open and Sam Darnold gets traded and the Steelers cut Big Ben and it’s a free for all.

@BlaineFrom Coller you have been here awhile now. What are you and the wifes favorite restaurants in town?

Matthew:

YOUR ADVERTISEMENT HERE. BUY AD SPACE FOR ME TO SAY YOUR RESTAURANT.

I’m only slightly kidding. Suggestions welcome in the comments for places to eat though. There’s a deli in St. Paul called Cecils that we hit up all the time. Market BBQ on the north side is great. We order from Pizza Luce all the time. Revival is good. Neither of us are foodies so it’s usually straight forward kind of stuff.

@AWpulski If somehow they don't cut Barr & don't take an edge rusher early in the draft, is there any reason to hope they finally start using him as passing down edge rusher opposite of Hunter? I thought that was supposed to be a strength of his coming out of college.

Matthew:

When I wrote about the Vikings using Barr as a rusher more after 2017 and he talked about it publicly in 2018, that wasn’t meant to suggest he could ever move to edge rusher. He’s not an edge rusher. Those guys have insane quickness and bend and spend their entire careers working on pass rush moves. Barr doesn’t have that “twitch” or bend or moves to beat 320-pound tackles. He can beat tight ends and running backs really effectively though.

My suggestion was to up his amount of blitzing. Jamie Collins, for example, rushed the passer 189 times in 2019 to Barr’s 109 blitzes.

He does way too many things well as a linebacker and has spent his whole career doing that. It would be almost impossible to flip the switch and ask him to be a full-time defensive end.

In the scenario you describe, they’d sign someone(s) in free agency like a Trey Hendrickson or Melvin Ingram.

@leo_olson You get the 2017 Vikings defense and the 2020 offense, except you have to start Dozier and Samia on the o-line for every game. How far do they make it?

Matthew:

They started Dozier and Samia against Tennessee, Houston and Seattle and produced 30, 31 and 26 points in those three games. If they ran into the Bucs defense, that probably would have been the point where it caught up to them (plus Tom Brady can beat No. 1 defenses). Nobody else in the playoffs was so dominant on the D-line that it would have completely blown them up. Maybe the Rams but 2020 Goff is doing nothing against the 2017 defense (in fact, 2017 Goff did nothing against that defense) so the Vikings probably could have beaten them too.

Even in 2017 the Vikings played Danny Isidora in one game. My pal Sirles was in there a lot when Nick Easton got hurt. Mike Remmers switched positions for the Minneapolis Miracle game. That 2017 offense ranked higher in scoring than 2020, by the way.

Remember when Tom Compton had a 6 out of 100 PFF pass blocking grade in Los Angeles in 2018 and Cousins played one of the best games of his career? It’s not impossible to overcome bad guard play. We’ve seen them do it plenty of times — just not usually against elite defenses.

I love the question but I’m not sure if it was meant to imply that all they need is to replicate the 2017 defense or imply that with these guards even the 2017 team would have failed. It’ll be almost impossible to repeat that defense and the 2017 team would have still been good with terrible guards.

@PazMello Any truth that the Broncos are interested in Kirk or are Rick and Zim prepared to eat $45 mill to the cap if Kirk refuses to restructure and holds the Vikings hostage.

Matthew:

Is that a rumor? The Broncos should be interested in Cousins. They have great weapons and a good defense. Even though they’re in a division with the Chiefs, they can be a legitimate contender with even a good quarterback. Denver has a little bit of the same vibe as the Buccaneers. They were bleh in 2019 because their QB was horrible but if they brought in a good quarterback, they’d be good quick. I’m sure that they’re going to hunt for DeShaun Watson first before calling the Vikings.

The Vikings would be crazy to pay Cousins a $45 million cap hit in 2022. They’ll extend him or trade him. Those appear to be are the only two ways that situation could go — and it was designed that way by Cousins’s agent because he’s really good at his job.

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