Friday mailbag: The draft is over, what's next?

Vikings fans are curious about the big decisions still to come this offseason

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By Matthew Coller

Hey folks, hopefully you enjoyed all the draft coverage last week. Unsurprisingly we’ve got a pretty epic mailbag this week so let’s dive into it…

@Blurm…. How does having some ‘insider’ knowledge of the team affect your coverage? I’m assuming you have some sources in the team, giving you at least clues who they’re on high on, how they’re leaning on certain personnel decisions, etc. Does that sway some of your opinions? For example, if you knew they weren’t high on certain prospects in the draft, does that affect how you would mock for them?

Well, there’s definitely nobody within the team telling me who they are high on in the draft. When it comes to the draft, you shouldn’t believe anything you read or hear leading up to it because teams aren’t leaking draft info to media unless they want to get fired. I’m very careful when it comes to any draft buzz because if you go back and compare it to things that actually happened in the draft vs. the reports it’s rarely accurate. I do think the Vikings’ moves like drafting a receiver will match up a little more often with how I tend to see things because they have an analytically-inclined GM.

As far as other things go, I’m not hiding all the secret scoops from you guys. If you hear me say something on the podcast or if I write it, then I believe it. I don’t change any opinions to protect anyone. Stuff that I’m told usually just helps me understand the context of a situation better and talk about it in a sharper way. But most of the work is done just by showing up at TCO Performance Center for every availability.

Andy… Herbert and Burreaux are going to get massive deals, but it's clear the owners effectively colluded to never repeat the Watson structure. Given the deals Murray, Wilson, Carr and Geno signed, can we agree the collective (and agent-fueled) pearl clutching about Jackson not having an agent was misguided?

I think Lamar and the Ravens both knew that they needed each other. Other teams worked pretty hard to make sure the Watson thing wasn’t happening again but the Ravens understood that they are way better off with an MVP quarterback so they made the deal at the right time before some other team decided to go nuts. Could Lamar have ended up with a Watson-like deal if an agent got into the right owner’s ear? Maybe. I’m not sure. You have to admit though — it looked pretty bad when his business partner was randomly calling teams. Do I think that a lot of the media who were demanding he get an agent were carrying water for agents who give them information? Abso-freaking-loutely.

jeffintokyo … Which league has the higher quality players.. USFL or XFL? Have any players in either league caught your attention as potential Vikings?

One of the struggles that side leagues have is that the AAF, XFL 2.0, USFL Season 1, XFL 3.0 and USFL Season 2 all have about the same caliber of talent. It’s like playing Madden and building six teams with all players rated from 55 to 65. And I’m saying this as a lover of all of these leagues and with the hope that they grow and succeed. I just understand why they struggle to get a ton of attention. I would say that the XFL 3.0 has probably created the best product I’ve seen out of a spring league and the best organized. I hope they all continue to draw NFL backup/young QBs who would rather spend a spring actually playing like AJ McCarron did this year. I can’t say I’ve watched close enough to say the Vikings should get Player X or Player Y but there will definitely be guys who get opportunities.

@DonLokken You heard it here first (or maybe not). Aaron Rodgers will be a huge bust with the Jets. I just can't see his health holding up. Thoughts?

From the looks of Rodgers at his press conference, it feels like he’s going to act more professionally than he did with the Packers last year and that should be scary to the AFC East. When it comes to legends, I never declare them dead until it’s completely over. Remember Brady’s last year in New England? He looked pretty washed and then got a great team around him in Tampa and won. I wouldn’t bet against Rodgers… at football anyway. In a philosophy debate or guitar duel, sure.

@ErrorRic We know Justin Jefferson is the best – he’s not a “problem” to be fixed – but the truly great players are always adding something to their game. What’s something JJ can improve going into year 4?

It’s probably as simple as continuing to study how teams are playing him and finding little details that can help him defeat those double teams and “shell” coverages. Last year there were times, including the playoff game, where he was slowed by an opponent that put everything into stopping him. Of course, much of that comes down to coach and QB but it’s really the only thing I can think of. Otherwise it’s all about sustaining the same level, which is what truly makes players great.

@kyleshaner What do you think of the Texans’ trade to get Will Anderson? When should teams go all-in on one player versus getting several highly regarded players?

Can I think it was ridiculous and love it at the same time? By all measures that’s not something you should do. But let’s look at teams that win championships. What do they always have? Hall of Fame players. You can replace a lot of things but an absolute freak monster who had 35 sacks in three years at Bama isn’t one of them. If he turns out to be Khalil Mack, nobody’s going to complain about what they gave up for him. If he doesn’t, it’s a total epic disaster. The Texans have been such a joke for a long time, I don’t hate them taking a home run swing.

jeffintokyo … It seems pretty clear they wanted guys who produced at a high level in college and RAS numbers were not such a factor (they got no elite RAS scores) but lots of guys who did well on PFF grading....Do you know how much research has been done on that (PFF grades vs RAS and NFL success)? Did Kwesi say he was studying that?

Kwesi isn’t giving up his analytical secrets but there are definitely connections with those things. Someone looked at RAS specifically and found a 0.64 correlation coefficient, which I’d call a decent connection. Nothing will ever come close to perfect.

Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points did a bunch of pre-draft articles that showed certain Combine scores were much more predictive than others (which is baked into RAS, I believe). For example, the 40-yard dash did not mean much to receiver success but quickness metrics did. When he looked at all the positions he found they were all different, which makes sense different things are required to succeed at DE vs. CB vs. WR etc.

From what I’ve read on the PFF grades vs. draft is that they do not guarantee success but if a player grades poorly there is a more likely chance of failure. That stands to reason, right? All the grades come directly from the tape, so if the tape is filled with mistakes, those will often carry over to the NFL. I’m certain Kwesi and the Vikings have studied these things extensively, probably using their in-house grades and PFF grades.

@JasonJEngler Talk me into the Vikings being in a better position than the Bears, Lions and Packers over the next 5 season… given the volume of high draft capital those 3 had or will have

If the Bears fail with the QB position and don’t land Caleb Williams they’re just the Jets with no Rodgers. If Jordan Love is mediocre but not bad enough to get them Caleb Williams, then they will be stuck. We could all see the Lions getting locked into being a 8-10 win team with Jared Goff, right? Five years is a long time so it’s really hard to project out that far. With the Vikings’ weapons in a good place (assuming some pretty important folks sign extensions), the path is there to put the next quarterback into an excellent position to succeed and go from there. Easier said than done, of course.

@Aoki5Chuck If you had truth serum, and could ask Kwesi one non-QB related question about the team, what would you ask him?

I’d be curious how Justin Jefferson individually impacts the entire team’s timeline. Does he know what Jefferson wants them to do at QB? Would they have sold off everything if he wasn’t there? I’d also ask Kwesi why he’s a vest guy. I want to be a vest guy but I’m just not sure how to pull it off. Is the real key shirt under the vest? Do you zip the vest all the way up or leave it unzipped?

@J_D_Cameron Is there evidence to suggest that a QB prospect actually benefits from sitting behind an experienced QB VS being thrown straight in?Obviously context dependent and a lot is on roster, not Vikings specific but wondering if there’s actually the benefit that seems assumed by folks?

There are so few examples of it actually happening that it’s hard to say for certain how much it matters. Each situation is different. Someone like Jalen Hurts probably benefitted a ton. Joe Burrow was ready right away. Zach Wilson struck me as a guy who really could have used a year on the bench but it’s possible he would have been an entitled dweeb anyway. I don’t think the Mitch Trubiskys or Sam Darnolds would have solved any of their problems by sitting a year but someone like Justin Fields was so overwhelmed by the NFL at first that I’m not sure he got anything out of playing and would have been better served developing.

With the Vikings situation…it couldn’t have hurt, right? If they landed Anthony Richardson and gave him a no-pressure situation to put 100% of his focus into correcting mechanics and learning the NFL game, there would have been zero downside to that.

Rob… Since it seems to be the season for grading, what grade would you give Kevin O’Connell on his first season as a head coach?
A-F , no incompletes. My grade is B-

You’re a tough grader. I think he deserves an A or A-. Certainly the whole defense debacle falls at the feet of the head coach, as everything does, but I’m not sure what more anyone could have asked for than a 13-win season, top-10 offense and the NFLPA survey giving the Vikings the highest score out of anyone in the league. Maybe it isn’t an A+ because he should have changed DCs mid-season and there was an adjustment period to calling plays and handling all the HC duties and a few regrettable trick plays (which hopefully he never attempts again because my eyes are still burning form the fullback jet sweep and throw to Cousins). But let’s not forget how everything looked when he took over. It was a cultural nightmare and an antiquated offense. Now they are a modern team doing sustainably good stuff.

@Aduke43987144 Thoughts on Minnesota developmental staff in regards to developing late round picks, how does it fair compared to the rest of the league?

I don’t know if anyone has studied this but I’ve always felt that the performance of late-round picks is completely random. Is some team coaching so differently that their sixth-rounders are developing at a different rate than other teams? That seems really unlikely. You either luck into somebody who has more talent than expected at that draft slot like Diggs or somebody who is high IQ and works like a maniac like KJ Osborn or the prospect’s weaknesses end up being too much to play in the NFL and they end up in the XFL. There’s no magic development touch. I always think about something Cousins told me years ago about his own growth: He said that NFL players have to develop themselves. Coaches are there to win, not hold the hands of the fifth-round picks.

@sk0lachev The ravens GM today mentioned weighing jersey sales into the calculation of signing OBJ (in response to being accused of overpaying). Is it just me or is that a wild thing to say in a salary cap league

It’s a weird thing to say, I agree. Nobody thinks the Ravens will struggle to make bank, it’s about them hurting their salary cap for years to come by signing him.

@smccullough5 Whose your way, way too early Mr. Mankato? How have your last 5 picks for Mr. Mankato faired?

I’m pretty sure I’ve done horribly every year at picking Mr. Mankato before training camp. I’ll keep trying though. The way-too-early pick for me would be DeWayne McBride. He’s going to get lots of opportunity and probably rip off some huge gains against those poor guys who play in preseason games these days.

@smccullough5 If they did a spin off series of The Office mainly focused on Jim and Pam, how many episodes are you watching and do the Vikings win more games than this in 2023?

I’d watch zero episodes of that, so I’ll say the Vikings win 10 more. That’s an unofficial pick though. It’s not my super real and super duper important prediction until the schedule drops.

@NorthStarsNHL Pick one FA or trade addition you feel the Vikings realistically will make after June 1st and why you feel it would be good.

The most realistic is signing a free agent edge rusher like Leonard Floyd or Robert Quinn if they move on from Za’Darius Smith or Danielle Hunter.

@J_B_ROSE Since you’ve been covering football, is there a coach that you’ve learned more from than others? If so, what was it about the game they taught you?

Oh, Mike Zimmer. A million times Mike Zimmer. There’s so many things that it would take up this entire mailbag. Covering him for that long was like taking a football masterclass. He’s remembered for some harsh quotes but he enjoyed just talking ball and wanted us to know how stuff worked. We had small sessions with him after camp practices sometimes and he’d just explain things, particularly about player evaluation. How to identify skills, why players make it or don’t, what details of players’ games we should we watching at practice…it was something.

I remember right before 2021 started, four or five of us were talking with him about Burrow and he went through this huge breakdown of everything he saw from Burrow on tape and told us exactly why he was going to be a star. Six months later Burrow was in the Super Bowl. (I know it’s not the hottest take that a No. 1 pick would be a star but it wasn’t clear at that time and the breakdown was really, really good). I was critical of Mike like everyone else but I liked covering him because I always learned a lot.

@maxxpowermn What is the long term plan at QB? Kirk not extended, waited until late to draft a QB. Trade for Lance or Willis? Wait until next offseason? Extend Kirk for a year?

If you find out what the QB plan is, can you let me know? At this point we can only make pie charts. Right now I’d say 50% they let him walk after next year, 30% extend him, 10% trade for Lance and 10% get a disgruntled veteran.

@BeerGut_Nilsson Are there any rookies who didn’t get their 5th year taken we think Kwesi may look to trade for? Some thin/weak positions we could address?

Usually teams don’t trade those guys. Just like Garrett Bradbury last year, they often want to wait and see because the player could take a step forward in his fourth year. Not to mention that they are cheap labor for another season. The Vikings can’t make any trades/signings until they get the Cook/Smith/Hunter issues resolved.

@JesseCa88568330 If Kirk hits 40 Tds, and they win 12 games and 2 playoff games, what does his next contract look like?

If Cousins tops his career high in touchdowns by five and doubles his career playoff win total, I assume he’ll get an extension pushing $50 million per year.

@scotwilcox101 How realistic is it to think that Brian Flores' biggest impact will be on third down defense? Third downs seemed semi-automatic against the Vikings last year, and fueled way too many long, exhausting drives.

They were actually fine on third downs. Ranked 12th in the NFL in third-down percentage. On first down, however, Donatell’s D was horrific. They gave up the sixth most first downs on first down and were 22nd in yards per play allowed. If there’s one place they can improve it’s creating pressure. By Pro-Football Ref’s metrics they were 22nd in pressure percentage and sacks. Here’s another one: They gave up a gazillion big plays on deep passes. They allowed the third most air yards last year. Lots of ways Flores can help.

@adamborrett Am I crazy for thinking we aren’t that far off having an average defense if things go right?Flores scheme/development/play calling must be better than Ed Donatell. Add one more vet CB and hope for Booth or Evans to step up? D-line has enough to work with too IMO.

Yeah, sorry but you probably are. Patrick Peterson and Dalvin Tomlinson were two of the best players at their positions in the NFL and there’s no guarantee Asamoah is better than what Kendricks gave them even in a down year. Flores’s scheme should be a big improvement, it’s just that there’s so much uncertainty with the personnel. What if Smith and Hunter are both gone? The schedule is also filled with star QBs.

@pdefor Is this the best chance an UDFA has had of making the team in years?

Who knows. The odds probably don’t change just because they gave some guys a little more money. One year they paid some receiver like $150k and tryout receiver Chad Beebe easily beat him out for the job. With each of these guys, 32 teams passed seven times. It’s a long, long, long shot that any of them ever play a down in the NFL. Would be cool if they made it and it’s not a bad bet for the team to make but I’m not going to sell you fake hype on UDFAs.

@magillis1 Are the Vikings going to make any changes to the O-line this off-season, or are we rolling with the same group? How do we feel about that?

Same group. I don’t think they have much other choice. We know what Bradbury is now, so it depends on the guards. The consistency of Cleveland and growth of Ingram holds the keys to the whole operation.

@oldbreedwriter Other than WR Addison, which of the draft picks is likely to make the team? Any starters among the defense picks?

I’d be surprised if any of them didn’t make the team considering how few of them there are and the open spots on the depth chart. Mekhi Blackmon has the best chance to start at nickel corner but that can be a tough transition for a college guy. Jay Ward could have a role. More likely than not Addison is the only guy from the class who’s playing much in 2023.

@robkong406 Watching Jaren Hall highlights at Boise State made me wonder about this. Boise State has their horrible blue turf, and Eastern Washington has an even more horrible red turf; are there any NFL rules preventing the Vikings from having a horrible purple turf?

I don’t know but please don’t give the NFL any ideas to make team-colored turf.

@JesseCa88568330 How would we (Vikings Fans) feel if Kirk gets extended and ends up with all significant Qb records i.e. Tds, Yds, wins, comebacks etc ? 3 more years gets most of those records. 4 years would get all.

The harsh reality about the Cousins era is that he was brought here to get back to the NFC Championship and if that doesn’t happen nobody’s going to care about all that other stuff. Case in point: Do you care that Andy Dalton is the second greatest passer in Bengals history by yards and No. 1 in touchdowns? Do you care that Jay Cutler is the Bears all-time leading passer? You impressed that Derek Carr is No. 1 in Raiders history in yards, touchdowns and game-winning drives?

@bill_nordwick If Zimmer had a do over, would he throw his support behind Case Keenum as a bridge QB and push to draft a rookie?

I don’t think Zimmer made the final call on Kirk. I always thought Alex Smith was a great fit for what Zimmer wanted in a quarterback but clearly the right direction in hindsight was to keep Case and draft Lamar Jackson.

@ttrandahl Do you think Daronte Jones' experience as LSU DC influenced drafting 2 LSU defensive players this year?

I’m sure he was influential in picking Jay Ward. He would be familiar with Roy and he was probably asked about him but wouldn’t have as much say in that call.

@ToddHam93620128 What were to happen If jaren hall impresses in training camp and preseason?

Nothing changes unless he’s Tom Brady. Maybe they would feel like they have the 2024 backup or possibly bridge QB if a rookie needs to sit.

@dreski83 Totally understand everyone is still buzzing from the draft, but I'm wondering if anyone has really pressed GM Kwesi about free agents, depth, and possible trades.

We have asked him repeatedly about Cook/Smith situation throughout the offseason and the cornerback depth in particular multiple times. I’m not sure what is supposed to be asked about free agents and trades. Like, are they gonna happen? Maybe he’d roll out a scroll with all the possible trade offers and free agents he’s considering signing but that seems unlikely.

@jdbondy Could you do a pie chart on June 1st moves? Cook/Smith/Lance trade/Cousins extension/ etc…

These are kind of their own individual percentages rather than a pie chart. I’d say 70% Cook is released (20% traded, 10% stays), 40% Smith is cut, 30% traded, 30% stays. I’ll go 4% they trade for Trey Lance and 32% they extend Cousins. You forgot Hunter, so I’ll give you 40% traded, 60% extended.

@dcaron28 what are the odds that Cook is still on the roster after June 1st?

Pretty low. They could hold out to trade him later in the summer though.

@headcoach21 In contact disputes when a player misses something mandatory it’s legitimate right??

Correct sir. It gets real once it’s mandatory.

@krueger_west What kind of Kirk Cousins extension price would actually give us a chance at a Super Bowl? My take is 2 years 50 million total. We obviously can’t pay him top 10 money but if he’s willing to take less shouldn’t we work with him?

Is this generally hypothetical or with the actual roster they have right now? Because he has less than a $25 million cap hit right now and they still can’t build enough to crack the top five Vegas odds for the NFC in the Super Bowl. In a theoretical sense, Matthew Stafford had a $20 million cap hit in 2021 and he’s Kirk-ish so maybe that’s the mark. Probably lower depending on how many stars on rookie deals he had around him. It’s absolutely wild how inflexible Kirk’s deals have been. Over his years in Minnesota he’s ranked sixth, third, 14th, second, third and ninth in cap hit. Basically one year where they could have spent around it and they were too busy swimming in dead cap in 2020. Tough.

@GeofftheJohnson Name one (1) player (player) on the squad who could have the biggest impact on wins by virtue of them taking a leap and/or being new to the roster (so presumably established stars like Jefferson, Kirk, Hunter wouldn’t be the choice here—looking for a change from last year).

The answer is everyone from the 2022 class. Pick your favorite. They need Lewis Cine, Ed Ingram, Andrew Booth Jr. and Brian Asamoah to step up if this train is going anywhere. If I had to pick one of them, it’s Booth Jr. There aren’t many answers beyond Byron Murphy in that cornerback group.

@singlepayer1978 What did the Vikings see on Ingram? guards we know takes a few years sometimes. Is there anything we should watch for or expect this year for improvement. Or is it a Mond situation where there does not look to be much chance of improvement. I know, there is always a chance.

The guy is pretty mammoth and has some smooth movements at that size. It’s insane how difficult it is to play in the NFL. The difference between him being the worst guard in pass pro last year and an average guard is one or two plays per game. It’s probably impossible to tell in college if someone will get 98 out 100 right or 96 out of 100. Does he have a chance to improve? Absolutely. We won’t know until he’s actually out there though. I don’t know how to put odds on it. I’ve seen guys go both ways after a rough first year.

@tomspeicher For your mailbag Matthew: Which is more enjoyable for you: covering a draft with minimal picks for the Vikes or a draft when the team has a deluge of late-round selections?

I’m good with whatever. Any time I’m covering football, it’s good… except when I couldn’t find the right parking lot in Green Bay last year, that was not good… but I digress. The only difference is how many conference calls I’m on during that Saturday. It wasn’t a nice day outside this year, so I would have been OK with a few more picks.

@PhisIsGroovin do you think Jefferson missing the voluntary workouts is a big deal?

It raises an eyebrow. In the panic meter, it’s barely in the yellow. If he’s not at OTAs, it goes into the orange. If he’s not at mandatory minicamp, it goes into the red.

@CryptoCherry7 I bet I have a scenario of trading JJ I could talk you into. The premise begins with the expectation that AZ and Houston finish ‘23 with similar draft positions meaning AZ has 2 picks inside top 3. JJ for those 2 picks. Draft KOCs QBOTF and MH Jr. Win.

Would ya trade Justin Jefferson for Caleb Williams. Hm. I’m gonna use that as an offseason question for my guests on the podcast. Probably. I think in that case Arizona trades Kyler Murray and takes Williams. Outside of Caleb Williams, I’m not trading Jefferson for anyone outside of a top-five QB or any amount of draft picks.

@NFinneman What was your favorite pick the Vikings made in the draft and why was it DeWayne McBride?

The player they took with the best chance to make a huge impact on the franchise is Jordan Addison but McBride was a great value pick and the exact right spot for them to pick a RB. So, sure, yeah.

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