Friday Mailbag: Summer speculation is here
Vikings fans have questions about what's going to happen in 2026 at QB and more
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, everyone! Hope you are enjoying your summer. We’ve got a lot of great questions here that are perfect for this time of year, so let’s jump in…
Roger… Who are the top 5 players who have exceeded your initial expectations in your time covering the Vikings?
Number one is extremely easy: Adam Thielen. When I first arrived in Minnesota, I assumed that Thielen was just a nice local story about a kid who played special teams and was a gritty WR4 type who you really wouldn’t want to play all that often. After that Week 5 game against Houston in 2016, it was clear that he was way more than that. To my credit, how many UDFA receivers in the last decade have had numbers like his? I’m guessing none.
Case Keenum is another obvious answer because absolutely nobody saw that coming. During training camp, it was not clear whether Keenum or Taylor Heinicke was going to be the QB2 until Keenum outplayed Heinicke in the preseason. After his first game against Pittsburgh, I thought the Vikings were gonna win like five games if he had to keep starting. It’s still crazy to me that he won 13 games.
Also Josh Metellus, who got cut out of his first camp and I thought might get chopped after his first camp with KOC. I figured him to be a run-of-the-mill special teams guy who could fill in if needed, not a 1,000-snap player.
Jalen Redmond, who I don’t remember even watching in his first camp because I assumed that he was a classic UFL guy that wasn’t going to be big or athletic enough to make it.
The last one is a little different but I’ll say Will Reichard. When they drafted him, I thought he’d be fine. When we saw him kicking during his first minicamp, I thought I was hallucinating. It was easily the most impressive kicking that I’ve ever seen. And here we are, the dude is the best kicker in the league.
Dan… That’s some great work on your Around the NFL posts. What are you doing differently than some of the national reporters that lets you have that much of a coherent clue about every team while still keeping on the local beat?
First, I’m really glad that you enjoyed the Around the NFL series because I had a blast writing it and I tried to put a lot of effort and research into the team essays.
I think the national media breaks into a couple different categories. You have your insider types who are sharing information from NFL teams and trying to take their best guess about stuff that’s going to happen with moves and transactions and coach/GM firings etc. Those people do a very different job than me.
Then there’s the TV analysts. Their job is to have big, loud, strong opinions. It moves the needle on the squawk box much more than me going through mounds of data to see if the Panthers had Bryce Young run enough play-action passes. They are pay to overreact, create narratives, build tension for big games and go off about stuff. I’ll occasionally have my rants but that’s not really my job either. My audience likes a deeper dive than a 3 minute TV segment.
I’m spending my time as an analyst and reporter. So for the Around the League series, I’m spending my hours reading reports from local writers, analyzing PFF data, running queries on Stathead, thinking about how I can infuse history and use metaphors and humor to better understand teams/players/situations in the NFL. I do the same thing when writing about the Vikings, only I’m lucky enough to have direct access to the players and coaches. That allows me to layer that stuff into my analysis and report on interesting subjects.
There are a lot of folks who do the same thing on a national level. Nate Tice, Mike Renner, Ted Nguyen, Steve Palazzolo, Sam Monson, Robert Mays, Cody Alexander… I could probably name 20 more if I thought about it. We are blessed with a lot of great national writers and it’s a lot easier for me to write or talk Around the League stuff when I’m reading/listening to them. So seek out some good analysts rather than the hot take folks.
Jake… Let’s say Roger wanted to change some things up and decided that every team got to keep 6 of their current players and everyone else went into a pool and was redrafted (like a keeper league in fantasy). Which 6 players should the Vikings keep in this scenario?
The three easiest choices are Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and Dallas Turner. Those are the highest value positions outside quarterback and two of them are superstars and the other is a young, growing player. I might have to go the obvious route here and go with the other two most recent first-round draft picks Donovan Jackson and Caleb Banks.
The goal would be to keep the highest amount of talent at the most important positions and ideally you’d want to be as young as possible. It’s doable to fill in linebackers and running backs and safeties in free agency but it’s very, very difficult to find players with Jackson or Banks’ physical tools to build upon over the next decade.
This would have been a really difficult question in 2024 because you’d probably have a very different answer. You’d absolutely pick Greenard and Van Ginkel and maybe try to get Blake Cashman on the list. But two years later, that’s harder to do when I’d be thinking about a 5-year plan with my list of six.
Fun question!
Jeffrey… Not necessarily a question, but I find it tedious all the talk of trading players now (JJM, Addison etc). Not saying there isn`t a certain point (halfway through the season if it is a disaster or after this season) it just seems awfully stupid to do it now.. On one hand, I think Teasley will be in charge (he made that clear) but on the other hand, hard to see the upside of nuking his relationship with KOC (who would of course be upset by trading Addison now)... I mean, it just is pretty stupid to do now
It’s summertime, you have to give people grace when it comes to talking trade rumors. I got more views on the live show where I talked about trading Addison than any other that I’ve done since minicamp, so I think most people understand that these trades are unlikely but are thinking more about them theoretically.
I ended up enjoying that conversation because it turned into being more about our expectations and the different iterations of the 2026 Vikings that could shape the future. If Jordan Addison is a 1,000-yard receiver on a 13-win team, he’s going to be a long-term Viking and Kyler Murray is probably the QB for years to come. If the team disappoints before the trade deadline and they’re like 3-5, they could decide now is the time to move him.
I think those discussions are more about the range of out comes, which is as wide as I’ve ever seen it since I’ve covered the team. If things go sideways at quarterback, this thing could be ugly in a tough NFC North. If things go well at QB, I have no doubt they could win the division. That’s wild.
There’s a lot of futures resting on training camp and the first half of the season and Nolan Teasley has a fascinating task of assessing all of it on the fly as he forms his opinions about where they stand and where it’s going.
So, yes, on its face, talking about trading Addison right now doesn’t make a ton of sense but when you look at it from a 30,000-foot view, it’s a really interesting conversation about where the franchise stands overall.
Tony… The winner of the QB competition is the guy who can get Jefferson the ball. McCarthy pulled off a string of wins to end last year, but the game plan didn’t include many anticipation throws to the greatest receiver in football.
We can’t have the same thing with scrambling Murray and expect Jefferson to sign an extension.
What’s the over/under for Murray to Jefferson yards that guarantees the Vikings sign Murray beyond this season?
I will say that Kyler Murray has been pretty good historically at throwing the ball to his best player. That just happened to be Trey McBride recently and not a receiver, so we look at it a little differently.
Also I don’t see his scrambling actually taking away from the number of times he’s going to target his wide receivers. In 2024, he had the 9th most pass attempts in the NFL and he was only 8th in total scrambles with 40. If he plays the same way, scrambling 40 times is not going to make a massive difference in WR targets.
To your question, sometimes stats can fool us. If Murray only averages 210 yards passing per game because they are a top-10 run game and top-5 defense, then Jefferson might only have 85 receptions for 1,200 yards but you’d take that all day. If they are losing every game because they get behind by 20 in the first half, then Kyler could rack up 115 catches for Jefferson and it won’t mean a lot.
That said, I think it’s fair to say if Jefferson clears 1,500 yards, there’s a really good chance that they win 10+ games and that Kyler is coming back. His average performance over 17 games has been 105 catches for 1,584 yards and 8 touchdowns. If has that season, the Vikings win 10+ and Kyler is signing an extension.
If you were wondering, DeAndre Hopkins’ per-17 game average while in Arizona was 107 catches for 1,309 yards and 8 TDs. That would be a pretty darn good year for Jefferson too.
Matt… Think you mentioned on a recent podcast that you could see Teasley trading for a running back at the deadline if the team is doing well but struggling to run the ball. Don’t recall you mentioning any names specifically, so who are 2 or 3 impact RBs you could see being available before the deadline?
Yeah, I don’t think I had any names in mind as I was talking but looking at contracts and so forth, a few that come to mind are Tony Pollard, James Connor or Trey Benson, Kendre Miller, Devin Singletary, or Brian Robinson Jr.
Not many superstars on the list but they could be contributors who have a path to a trade because either their teams are bad or they are buried or both.
Jason… What are the realistic best, worst, and middle outcomes for the secondary this season?
The best outcome is that either Theo Jackson, Jay Ward or Jakobe Thomas becomes a standout player very quickly and James Pierre is a really good piece for them to have on the field a lot (which I think will actually happen) and everybody stays healthy. In that case, they can probably be the 10th-14th best secondary in the NFL. Rodgers and Murphy can make plays and Metellus can be dynamic but they’re not going to have the same ceiling without Harry. Maybe you could say best case that Harrison Smith returns in Week 10 for the playoff run.
Middle outcome is that they are fine but flawed. There’s going to be times where QBs beat them if they can slow down Flores’ rush. Kinda a repeat of last year. There’s good games and bad. Sometimes it’s the Cincy game, sometimes it’s the Chargers game and they’re just an average unit overall. Maybe toss in a few injuries and there’s some guys playing earlier than you’d like and it’s just OK.
The worst case is that Smith’s absence crushes them. None of the young safeties are good/consistent and the cornerback room gets banged up to the point where Chuck Demmings and Fabian Moreau (just assuming he shows up at this point) are the starters and the whole thing comes apart.
If I’m putting percentages on those outcomes in pie chart fashion, I’d go with 25% that it’s the best-case scenario, 45% it’s the middle and 30% it’s the worst. Not having Smith makes the volatility potential much higher.
Ryan… Jimmy Kempski from PhillyVoice just released his Press Box food rankings for this year. How would you rank the Pressbox experiences in different stadiums? You have favorites you like going back to or ones that stand out?
I read the entire piece, of course. I haven’t actually been to Cowboy stadium, which was No. 1. But I was shocked to only see the Green Bay Packers at 21st. Come on. That’s my favorite food trip every year. That could be because I enjoy having brats available at any given time during the game.
I was in total agreement with the bottom of the list. Jacksonville being last and Chicago 29th were 100% deserved. I believe the 49ers and Eagles deserved more credit and the Vikings were in the right place at 11th. Los Angeles getting 6 and 5 (same spread) was totally right. That stadium is outstanding for food and view from the press box. Very difficult to find or leave the press box, but that’s a different ranking.
I wonder how much the guy’s rankings were impacted by the fact that it takes 8 years for a reporter to visit every stadium. Things may have changed in certain places.
Bradley… Are the Timberwolves the NBA version of the Los Angeles Rams with F them picks?
Yeah, pretty much. The NBA has been this way for a while though. The reason that people (including me) didn’t really believe in what the Rams were doing in 2021 was because football is so much more fragile. Usually in basketball, the best team wins. If you have the most talent, your chances of getting a title are really high because there’s only five players on the floor. The total impact of one superstar is enormous.
That’s not the case in football outside of a couple guys. In the NFL, you can also have one bad break in a playoff game and then all those picks go down the drain. There aren’t seven games to make it up.
Jordan.. If this was like the NFLPA survey for media members, what percentage of the overall grade would press box food account for? Club ownership is 15% of the overall grade for example. Would it be like 90%? HAHAHA!
Food is nice but that’s not really it. The team being relevant and interesting with its personalities and storylines would be 60% and then the access would be 35% and 5% would be everything else. Reporters will do whatever we have to do in terms of circumstances but the main thing that all of us want is to write good stories and do entertaining podcasts. If you have a dreadful, boring team, that’s really hard to do. If you have a locker room full of jerks or a PR/coach that restricts access as much as possible, it’s also way harder.
The reason I decided to start Purple Insider rather than seeking another job after I lost my radio show was because the Vikings’ access is among the best in the NFL and the team is never, ever, ever, ever dull. And in recent years, the locker room and coaches have been outstanding to work with. The locker room from 2024-present is the best I’ve ever covered in terms of players who understand the media’s role and are willing to do interviews and provide insight.
Food is just a bonus.
Arin… Matthew, I understand the concern Mike Clay has about the team, just do not agree, this is a 10 to 12 win team with better QB play. Is this WR group the best in the NFL 1 thru 3 and how close would you rate it to Carter Moss Reed? It cannot be better yet two hall of famers but just in if you had one game to play to make the playoffs would you want this group or the 1998 we group?
So, I tend to agree with you that this is a 10-12 win team as long as the QB play is where I think it’s going to be with Kyler Murray at QB. If it isn’t, then the downside could be pretty rough and guys like Mike are going to factor for that.
I can’t get anywhere close to your opinion on Three Deep vs. this trio. Jefferson is already an all-time great receiver but Randy Moss is one of the five best receivers and probably one of the 25 best NFL players of all time. Cris Carter is worlds better than Jordan Addison. That’s not even remotely close. There’s been 100 Jordan Addisons since 1998, there’s only a handful of Carters ever. Carter is sixth all-time in catches. If Addison has half his career, he should be thrilled. And I like Jauan Jennings a ton but Jake Reed had four straight 1,000-yard seasons.
Three Deep is right there with the late-80s/early-90s Washington trio of Sanders/Clark/Monk for being the best trio of all time. It can’t be touched and honestly should never be mentioned, the same way we never compare any Vikings D-line to the Purple People Eaters because it would be sacrilegious, We should treat Three Deep the same way.
Bradley… Speaking of Mike Clay, his projection for Kyler has to mean he doesn’t think Kyler can play a full season, right? No way he plays 17 games and throws for 19 tds unless we have the best rushing team in league history.
It says on the projection sheet 17 games. It’s not as crazy as you think. His per-17 game rate since 2023 has been 21 touchdowns and 11 INTs, so I’m guessing that’s where Clay was drawing from.
It’s pretty clear that Mike isn’t buying the idea that Murray can find himself as the Vikings QB. Personally, I’ve seen it happen enough times over the last decade to definitely believe in it. What was Sam Bradford’s reputation before he got here? What was Case Keenum’s reputation before he got here? What was Sam Darnold’s reputation before he got here? Heck, Kirk Cousins was better here than in Washington.
With this offensive setup, it’s hard to see it going as badly as Clay’s projection. At the same time, past results do not guarantee future outcomes. If Kyler simply does not fit and refuses to play within the system, it could go sideways.
I’m certain that his ups and downs are going to drive people crazy at times but if he ends up going for 3,800 yards, 26 total TDs, 11 INTs and ranks as PFF’s 12th best QB and cracks the top 10 in ESPN’s QBR, he’s going to win a lot of games. I’m describing his exact 2024 season, by the way.
It doesn’t have to be perfect to win with this team, it just has to reach a certain level and they can have a good shot at the playoffs.
But I can’t criticize people who say they don’t believe it’s going to reach that level. It has to be proven by Kyler and KOC that there’s more than just a .500 type quarterback who has his highs and lows.
Jordan… I think age played a big factor in Dallas Turner being a “bust.” I can’t find very many edge rushers who were great at 21 or 22 years old. Nick Bosa, Danielle Hunter, and JJ Watt were good at that age, but nowhere near the level of production seen later in their careers. Unsurprisingly, Danielle Hunter seems to be the biggest outlier for performance for his age (I know, you’re shocked.) Did I miss anyone? And could Dallas Turner literally just being older cause a massive uptick in his production this season?
I think that the ridiculous expectations that people set for every rookie and the overreactions that everyone has online shapes our perceptions of stuff. No rational person should have been calling Turner a bust after Year 1.
To your point, since 2010 there are only 10 players who have produced 6.0 sacks or more at age 21. Now that’s a little bit wonky of a stat because JJ Watt was 22 when he came into the league and there’s a ton of pass rushers who have thrived at 22, including Micah Parsons and his 13.0 sacks and Jason Pierre-Paul and his 16.5 sacks at 22.
But age and development don’t always go hand-in-hand. Opportunity has been part of Turner’s story. It wasn’t until the end of Year 2 until he really had a consistent role. That matters. He also probably had more to learn than he or they expected when they picked him out of Alabama.
Giving him time over the first two years made a lot of sense. It’s time now to see where he really stands though. Year 3 for a lot of pass rushers has been the breakout year and with Greenard traded, it’s up to Turner to prove that he can be a double-digit sack guy. I don’t think he’s going to be a Danielle Hunter or Nick Bosa type because he doesn’t have their size but with some more confidence and reps, it wouldn’t surprise me if he pushed for double digits in sacks.
Jeff M… I know the draft is a bit of a crapshoot but, how is it that at times you, as just an observer not a coach or scout, can see that a player won’t work out (i.e Kellen Mond) after just a few practices? Seems like, with the millions they spend to identify the players that the teams would see that ( if it’s that obvious) before drafting them..
It’s crazy, man. The NFL is insanely different than college. I’ve made this comparison before that it’s not like minor leagues to the pros, it’s more like watching a high school baseball player to the majors because college football is so far behind the NFL.
Think about how few times a college QB actually plays against pro players on the other side during a single season. Is it five games where he’s really facing multiple NFL defenders? That’s if you’re at a great program. How many times are they facing pro schemes? Zero. Not even close.
What comes along with that is precision. You can be a good college quarterback if you can get the ball somewhere in the ballpark of your receivers because they are usually wide open when you’re throwing it to them. In the NFL, throws that look super easy on TV when Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees does it are happening craaaazy fast.
Mond couldn’t throw with precision and his processing didn’t work fast enough to get the ball the places where it needed to go. He just pretty much froze up and then whipped the ball wherever.
Scouting is very, very difficult. There’s been lots of guys over the years that I thought would make good pros based on their college tape and then I saw them in practice and was like… welp, that’s not going to work. That’s just how it goes.
Angelo….. Given the potential for some drama with the QB competition, then do you think that the NFL missed out by not having the Vikes on “Hard Knocks”? Also what is your opinion on the programme, does it get in the way of the local journalists like yourself?
I suppose that’s if there is drama. There might not be. They might get to the first day of pads and Kyler is the quarterback and that’s that. I do think a QB competition would be interesting to see play out on Hard Knocks if they were actually able to show it but from my understanding the way it works these days is that HBO can only show what the teams approve. That’s why it has become sanitized and fluffy over the years. I haven’t watched it in quite some time.
Reporters like myself would LOVE if Hard Knocks was able to get a bunch of juicy, fascinating details about the team and show what really goes on behind the scenes. They did that to a large extent early in the show’s history. We’re always looking for more info and understanding of how things really work, regardless of how we get it.
Bradley P…. Matthew, talk me into the Vikings being able to win the super bowl within four years.
It’s really not that hard. They solidify the quarterback position and then Nolan Teasley works the draft magic and builds methodically over several years through the draft and they build a monster roster and then things work out with their matchups and luck in the playoffs.
So much easier said than done. But that’s the scenario. It isn’t rocket science, it’s just that everyone in the NFL is trying to do the same thing and the Vikings have always been chasing the QB spot rather than setting all their sights on the rest of the squad.
Chris C… Sam Darnold was on the Bussin with the Boys podcast and said JSN was the best WR he’s ever played with and put Jets second.
1. Do you think he’s just saying that because that’s his current teammate?
2. Talk me into JSN being better than Jets.
Yes, I think it’s because he’s his current teammate. There’s no upside to saying that somebody else is the best wide receiver and not your guy. Sam is really good in interviews at making sure that he never ticks off any teammates or makes any coaches upset with him.
Darnold has no obligation in that situation to give an objective analysis. That said, JSN is pretty, pretty, pretty good.
Kip N… How confident do you feel about the Vikings over the next 3 years after all the Front Office changes ? Do you see more positive or more of “same old Vikings ?”
I’d describe it as “somewhat” confident. I think that they did need some fresh faces and new voices but everyone’s future hinges on whether they get the quarterback situation right. They could have the smartest front office in league history and fail to get the QB squared away and everyone looks like a bunch of fools.
I’ve always felt like they were pretty close as a team in many areas. They didn’t need to fire everyone but they did need Teasley to have his own people in place from the start to set the tone that things are going to roll his way. We’ll see where it takes them.
Jimmy…
Okay I was in general very happy with the front end of the Vikings 26 draft. From my perception going into the draft, interior defensive line was by far my main concern. I am leaving the Quarterback situation mentally alone for now. I just want to be fair to KM and let the complete training camp experience play out before I make a judgment. Well then I was confused when the Vikings called Demond Claiborne name. So I immediately assumed it’s throwing darts time of the draft. Well like normal after a few weeks I go back and research each of our picks with an open mind.
Watching some of his tape, he is very shifty and has burst. I also think that if he has to make the business decision to run you the Fudge over he will enjoy that opportunity as well. What is your opinion as of now pre training camp? I would not be surprised if by the trade deadline he becomes the #1 RB and the Vikings can shop Jones. To clarify what I see as burst in him, is the speed his mind explodes and reacts to the current situation. I see a cross section of Berry S., Emmitt S. And a guy who wants to be AP. This is not a Fandom thought! These are the comparisons my thoughts I keep jumping too.
Also I think that our older stars like Hock, Jones, will be traded to needy teams. Right Tackle will be a top priority this offseason. Just my thoughts what do you think about what I laid out?
Where to start, Jimmy… I think that when the mailbag is calling Jordan Addison basically Cris Carter and you’re comparing Demond Claiborne to Berry Sanders and Emmitt Smith, we must be really, really deep into the offseason and everyone badly needs to see some actual football again soon.
What if I said that Claiborne could be Michael Bennett? A guy with blazing speed that can be a change-of-pace back that maybe someday has a season where he’s the guy and gets some big explosive plays and has a great season. That sounds like the best upside that I can see with Claiborne. His size is probably going to be limiting to some extent and he only averaged 5.1 YPC in college. Berry Sanders was basically the greatest college RB ever.
Setting the bar reasonably for Claiborne to get maybe 50 carries this season behind Mason and Jones makes sense to me.
I’d say if they are trading people away like you suggested, we could see a lot more of him than that.
The only scenario where they have a fire sale would be like if this year turns into 2020. Rick Spielman couldn’t do it then but Nolan Teasley can now.
I don’t see it though. I think they’ll be a competitive team by the deadline and keep everyone.