Friday mailbag: Predicting draft day and Lance rumors

Fans have questions about what's next on tap for the Vikings come draft day and if Lance rumors are legit

Sign up for Purple Insider for $7 per month or $64 per year to get credentialed access inside the Vikings, from in-depth analysis to behind-the-scenes features to the ever-popular Friday Mailbag. Photo courtesy of the Minnesota Vikings

---

By Matthew Coller

Well folks, this is our last Friday mailbag before the draft so let’s make it count…

@NorthStarsNHL Who would you rather pick and why between McKee or Thompson-Robinson in the middle rounds for a QB if both available (I know top rated R1 always best pick, but if you had to make a choice here…)?

It’s interesting because there are a few draft analysts who like McKee either as much or more than Hooker, yet his average mock draft position (per MockDraftDatabase) is 123rd. Thompson-Robinson’s is 166th, which isn’t all that significant of a difference. Assuming the league agrees that they are similar ballpark prospects overall, I’d have to lean toward Thompson-Robinson because of his mobility. McKee is such a statue. Most likely it doesn’t make a difference and they’ll both end up as backups or in the XFL but I’d have to go with someone who might be able to make some plays out of structure. Here’s the crazy thing about being a good athlete at QB though: Thompson-Robinson ran a 4.56 40-yard dash at 203 pounds. Anthony Richardson ran 4.43 at 244 pounds. Daunte Culpepper ran 4.52 at 255 pounds. The bar for being a difference-making athlete at QB is so high that DTR probably won’t be able to use that skill as much as you’d think.

Jeff in Tokyo… Best guess. In a straight trade for Trey Lance, what would you guess SF gets (this does not assume Vikings are automatically the high bidder)

Recent history tells us that highly-drafted bust QBs usually go for a second-round pick. That’s what Josh Rosen went for, that’s what Sam Darnold went for. If you’re a team that’s in a place to take shots at the QB position, it makes sense to send a second-rounder their way. A first-round pick is too committal. Of course, it all depends on the amount of interest. If there’s a bidding war, maybe the price goes up. Everyone’s going to ask the same question to San Francisco: Why are you trading him? Why should we give you a first if you want to move on?

@SamRoot43 There are a lot of high quality prospects who reasonably could be available to the Vikings. Kancey, 3-4 DBs, 3-4 WR, a handful of edge rushers. At least a couple will be there. Who's the one that you'd disconnect the phone and pick rather than listen to trade down offers?

Joey Porter Jr. probably. I know people don’t want cornerbacks in the first but this man is a way better prospect than the last few guys they have taken in the first and he could reasonably be there at 23 (mock database has him at 15). There are enough good receivers where trading down doesn’t cost you a great player, though I like Addison best of the bunch. There’s a number of super athlete edge rushers who need development. Kancey is interesting. If he drops that far you definitely have to think about it taking him rather than moving down.

@SgtpineappleMN Do you feel this years draft would be good to take the 23rd pick and trade back to acquire a 2nd and 3rd round pick or maybe even a later 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick?

Yes, I do see this draft as being favorable for a trade back but I wouldn’t move back too far. I’ll give you an example. I just ran a quick draft sim on the PFF simulator and came up with Deonte Banks, Zay Flowers, Will McDonald IV and Emmanuel Forbes all on the board. Any one of those guys would be a pretty good pick. But when I traded down to the second round all of them were gone. It seems like there’s a drop off from the early 20s to the back of the first round and into the second. It really depends on who’s still on the board and how far back they can go without seeing the value tank. I also think it would be tough to get another team to give them a second-round pick. If they’re moving back then they’re probably getting a third — which is good but not at the sacrifice of a top prospect who could become a star. You can find OK players, stars are very hard to get.

@thetuse Last year, Kwesi called it a competitive rebuild, resulting in a division title. The pattern this offseason leads to young guys on second contracts. With little draft equity, your gut feeling? Roll with the limited picks and focus on ‘24 draft or splash to move up for a QB?

I don’t think a splash move to get a QB is particularly likely but we truly can’t count out anything when it comes to the QB position. It sounds to me like they are throwing everything out there on the table and making a Plan A, B, C, D, E. If the 49ers want to move Trey Lance, maybe you go for that. If Anthony Richardson or CJ Stroud drops, you gather all the draft capital you can for the future and make the call. If their scouts say 2024 has five first-round QBs, wait for that. If Tom Brady’s one dream is to become a Viking but he wants to sit out 2023, do that. OK, like 95% kidding on that one. If I had to put odds on these potential outcomes, I’d say they aim to make the roster younger this year and then pick one next year.

@vf10281 I hear all these qb rumors and to me my question is why do we always need to question whether these black qbs are worthy of high selections. There is nothing special about Will Levis yet he keeps getting propped up meanwhile all this noise surrounding stroud and richardson

It’s pretty clear from Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts being asked during draft time if they were going to play receiver/running back that we aren’t far separated from the NFL struggling with racial biases when it comes to the QB position. However, I do think we have made a ton of progress in that area recently. If we see three black QBs taken in the top 10 this year, it’s probably going to tell us that the NFL has started to weed out some of that thinking and these young fellas can all thank Mahomes, Jackson, Hurts etc. for that. As far as Will Levis goes, I’m not yet sure whether the league is buying it or not but he does have a pretty impressive physical profile and did play well in 2021. It’s not absurd to think he’s a first-round talent. But I think there’s way less benefit of the doubt for him vs. the other prospect QBs than we would have in the past.

@JoshJ_5 If the Vikings were in the 49er’s shoes and were choosing between Brock Purdy or Trey Lance, which of the two QBs would be a better choice for the Vikings?

The 49ers’ shoes are pretty different because they can win the Super Bowl next year. The Vikings would want Lance because theoretically his ceiling is higher because of his physical talent. So if you’re trying to find the next freak QB who can throw the ball over mountains and truck linebackers in open space, Lance is that guy to develop into a star i.e. Josh Allen/Jalen Hurts. If you’re looking for someone to execute an offense in 2023, that’s probably Purdy. It is wild that they have decided Purdy is the guy after only a handful of games. In Case Keenum’s first four games with the Texans in 2013 he threw eight TDs, one INT and had a 99.0 QB rating. In his next four games he had a 57.5 QB rating. Small samples can do crazy things in football.

@zang100 Danielle for Lance?

I’m not sure how that one would work exactly but why not. Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw are the only players on the roster I wouldn’t do a one-for-one trade for Lance. Making that work is pretty tricky because Danielle needs a new contract and the 49ers are finally having to pay players. I’m not sure if they could afford it. If that was an actual offer though, I’m doing it and if it doesn’t work out, oh well. Hunter was going to cost $25 mill/year anyway, which wouldn’t have been that practical. And that’s said with no disrespect to his excellence.

@DonLokken Where do you see my other team, the Jags, going? They've got to feel the right pick(s) might put them over the top.

Jags should be trying to take a receiver. In hindsight they should have traded down and picked Garrett Wilson or Chris Olave last year anyway. If they can get Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison to pair with some of their other solid receivers they can create a nice group for Trevor Lawrence to work with. I’m sure they have other needs but nothing tops weapons for QB1.

@headcoach21 Is the Saints trade for Ricky Williams in the 1999 draft the WORST draft day trade in recent memory??

Certainly that’s the most preposterous draft trade ever made but can we talk about the Arizona Cardinals sending a first-round pick for Hollywood Brown last year? Kyler needed another weapon and Brown had a 1,000 yard season so I get what they were thinking, it just made no sense on a team that had holes everywhere and needed young talent to trade that much for an extremely average receiver who was often injured and needed to get paid.

It wasn’t a draft-day trade but the Trey Lance deal also looks like one of the worst in history. If the 49ers weren’t a great team right now everyone would be laughing at them.

@Conorm511 I feel as though Kwesi’s moves haven’t indicated team direction so far . Do you think we will have a better idea after the draft or still be confused ?

I’ve felt the same way at times, though maybe the simple fact that they restructured Kirk Cousins’ contract rather than caving and extending him long term was enough for us to see the direction. Also the longer we go the more clear it seems that Dalvin Cook and Za’Darius Smith aren’t going to be here. To your point though, the full picture is farther from being revealed than we have seen in a long time by late April. If they pick a QB next week, we will really, really, really know what’s up. Same goes for trading Danielle Hunter etc. I do think we will know soon but if somebody asked me to grade the offseason so far, it would get an incomplete.

@tjkill81 What is your go to snack for draft watching?

I’m a simple man. Diet Dr. Pepper and pizza. I’m thinking about doing a draft night live stream on YouTube. Who’s in?

@kyleshaner Let’s say you get one hour in which the Vikings have to answer all of your questions 100% honestly. Within that hour, how are you dividing your time between Zygi/Mark Wilf, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Kevin O'Connell, Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and anyone else?

We’re spending 50 minutes on the quarterback situation, eight minutes small talking about the weather and then two minutes getting an update on JJ’s extension. The QB thing is so fascinating. How long as it been since we could truly say that we don’t know who the QB is going to be one year from now? I’d love to hear all of their ideas and what KOC sees from his ex-QB eyes and what the analytics say from Kwesi’s computer brain.

@EgilSkallagrims IMHO, the Vikings must come away from this draft with a WR to challenge KJ, a Starting caliber NT and a CB who can play immediately if the injury bug hits again this year. Who would you take if this was your mandate and you couldn’t trade out of your first 3 picks.

Even if the Vikings trade down I’m not sure how they are coming away with a WR2/3, starting DL and starting corner even if they did trade down but if they can’t move out of their current picks they could probably land the Maryland corner Deonte Banks, receiver Michael Wilson from Stanford and Baylor NT Siaki Ikwa. That’s not a terrible draft, I suppose.

@jayrunquist If they really want a long-term QB… the real decision is: trade up in 2022 because you believe in Stroud/Young, trade up in 2023, or make a deal with Trey Lance. What would you do, and the Vikings?

Nobody knows what’s going to happen for sure but it would be shocking if Stroud or Young dropped into any range where the Vikings could reach with a trade up, especially with all the teams that need QBs picking in the top 10. If that is possible, of course that’s the No. 1 option. I don’t hate the idea of trading for Lance but there’s some serious risk involved in trading for a top pick that somebody else doesn’t want. The best direction is probably the most annoying one: Wait until 2024.

@bgarmani Hi Matthew, Do you think Lance is a good deal if the Vikings can get him for a second or third? I like his upside as much as anyone except Young or Stroud. The cost would be considerably less, and if it didn't work out they haven't screwed themselves for the next decade.

If they don’t have to give up No. 23 overall, yes, it’s a very good deal. (Remember they don’t have a second this year). I get where you’re coming from with his upside being high — though I’d say Richardson has a higher ceiling than any of them. Yes, the cost is less but there are more red flags. He’s been hurt multiple times and his team is moving on (in this scenario) despite trading their draft capital for years for him. Common sense tells us there has to be a reason beyond just Brock Purdy being promising. But I do agree with you that it’s not a bad scenario if it doesn’t work out. That’s actually fine. It would mean a bad season and a high pick next year….and I think Vikings fans are in a place where they’re willing to take that risk at this point.

@JRG_2154 Cousins or Lance?

Cousins is a wildly better quarterback than Lance right now but unless you can actually compete for the Super Bowl with Cousins next year what would be the point of sticking with him when he’s a free agent after 2023? Might as well start taking shots at the future now with someone like Lance.

@CatAnneBird Trey Lance could save the franchise? Trade for him and dump Cousins, and you’re likely to see enough upside to keep him longterm or they’ll finally go 4-13 and naturally tank? Worst QB you can acquire isn’t a bad one, it’s the middling Cousin and Carr types?

Can’t disagree with anything here. It’s worth pointing out that each year for the past three or four seasons there has been Kirk types on the market. Even in the worst case where you can’t find a high upside QB there’s still similar level players on the market every offseason like Jimmy G, Derek Carr, Geno Smith etc.

@twinsfanwyoming I just have to say this: Kwesi is going to learn a lesson the hard way just like Spielman did 2 years ago-that it’s really tough & really expensive to trade up for a 2nd Round Pick

You’re right that those second-round picks are worth their weight in gold. You can often get really good prospects in the second without the same cost. It’s unlikely that the Vikings do any significant trading up unless a QB is involved.

@WriterChurchill Unless this one's already been asked in the past and I missed it, squeeze into an otherwise unfilled out pie chart a piece with the likelihood that the Vikings will do something with their first pick so far not discussed. Because drafting chaos. And because Vikings.

So you mean that if we were doing the pie chart of outcomes and it’s like 10% quarterback, 30% corner, 35% receiver, 20% pass rusher, there has to be a 5% outcome for complete madness? I agree with that. The madness is probably trading for a player. If we get to the No. 23 pick and they suddenly announce a trade for any current player it would be pretty crazy but especially if it’s a quarterback…then it would be really wild. Usually we know what’s going to happen in the draft with this team but this year I’m still far from confident.

@rk2022 Should we be skeptical about the 49ers moving on from a 3rd overall after only 2 years

Yes. Very.

Andrew… The Hunter piece was spot on.  The rampant asinine use of void years/kicking dead money down the road makes the situation harder than it should be.  If Dean Lowry void years contribute to getting rid of a more-likely-than-not HOF pass rusher (a position that, as you noted, ages gracefully), this administration loses whatever benefit of the doubt remains about being forward thinking, right?

While I’m really not a fan of the use of void years, Dean Lowry’s in particular won’t make much of a difference. He’s only scheduled to carry a $1.8, $1.2 and $600,000 charge over the three dummy years on his deal. The problem is that they did that with everyone. Maybe they think Murpy and Davenport will re-sign, which does ease the pain of void years but if they don’t stay you’re talking $10 million dead cap between the three. That is significant. Still, I wouldn’t say that costs them Hunter specifically. What we’ve seen in the past is that if they truly want to keep a star, they will pony up and keep them. Hunter will only be moved if the Vikings have a number and years line that they won’t cross with him in extension talks.

@eleysium Read Matt Rhule recently saying coach and GM are important but cap guy is more important. How do you rank the Vikings cap team?

I don’t even think a cap guy’s mother would tell you that’s the case. Certainly they are important but whoever handles the cap within an organization can only do as much as they’re given cash to do by their ownership and they only have as much control and influence as they are given by the GM. That said, the Vikings are the cream of the crop when it comes to working with the cap — I’ve even thought that they were almost too good at making things work and it would have been better at times to have said “whoops we can’t do that deal because of the cap, darn!”

---