Friday mailbag: Pay cuts, Russell Wilson and defensive tackles

Vikings fans had plenty to talk about as we get closer to the real offseason action beginning...

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Happy Friday everyone. Let’s dive right into this week’s bevy of interesting offseason question (and be sure to check out the embedded video in which Sam and Matthew launch Purple Insider Extra)…

Curt via email: Would you respond to the latest about Kirk Cousins being the "Emperor of Garbage Time"  :).  I've been looking at his stats for awhile now and have been truly unimpressed with his performance when the going gets tough and that most of his positive stats are garbage time but I might be seeing it all wrong.  

Sam:

I assume you’re referring to the PFN story from Thursday that declares Cousins the “emperor,” and I think you’re seeing it correctly, Curt. The stats match the eye test in this case. Since 2018 when Cousins joined, the Vikings have trailed by at least three possessions in the fourth quarter eight times (19th most in the league). In those games Cousins has thrown nine touchdowns (T-2nd) and zero interceptions (T-1st), earned 9.1 yards per play (3rd) and a 50 percent first-down rate (2nd). And half of those games occurred last year — Packers, Falcons, Bucs and Saints — where Cousins was brilliant when it didn’t matter. It’s crazy how predictable the trend has become, and I can assure you Cousins isn’t a 4,000-yard passer in 2018 or 2020 without garbage yards.

Let’s be clear: It’s good to have a quarterback that knows how to pick apart a relaxed defense, but oftentimes the hole Cousins is climbing out of is of his own creation.

Sam via DM: Can you breakdown the likelihood of outcomes from the draft/free agency? In pie-chart fashion of course. As a Vikings fan predisposed to disappointment, I have a feeling that there is a non-zero % chance that they don't address IOL in any meaningful way. I mean I could seriously imagine them saying it's another Dozier camp battle. What odds would you put that at? Also, what's the likelihood it's a Zimmerian (pronounced zim-air-e-n) outcome of FA/draft, if Spielman had full control, and odds they lean into the Kirk?

Sam:

There’s a lot to chew on there! Let’s focus first on your question about addressing the interior offensive line. Here are my pie chart percentages (if there is an actual pie chart feature on this thing, Coller still needs to teach me how to use it):

45%: Cheap veteran free agent(s)
30%: Mid-round draft pick(s)
15%: High draft pick
5%: Expensive veteran free agent
4%: Pray that Cleveland and Samia work out
1%: Pat Elflein and Nick Easton reunion

I think the Dozier battle in camp you alluded to was a decent strategy but with the wrong people. Let’s be real: It probably wouldn’t have all been on Dozier if Aviante Collins or Dru Samia had amounted to, well, anything. Unless the Vikings take a guard super early in the draft, which is tough to justify without a second-round pick, they probably won’t be able to count on a rookie immediately, so they’ll need a veteran presence or two to keep the seat warm for one or two mid-round draft picks that may or may not work out.

As for your next question about a “Zimmerian” outcome to FA/draft vs. Spielman getting his way vs. leaning into Kirk, I’d break it down as follows:

Zimmer-ian: 67% (defense, defense, defense)
Spielman-ian: 20% (value, value, value)
Kirk-centric: 13% (guard, receiver, tight end)

@thadeaus Likelihood the Offense is Top 5, Top 10, Top 15, Bottom 15 in scoring in 2021. Same for the defense. Feels like if Klint is given some autonomy to adjust in-game play calling they SHOULD be top 5 in offense with those weapons. Then I think around 15 in defense feels about right.

Sam:

OK, the offense first…

Bottom 15: 80%
Top 15: 75%
Top 10: 70%
Top 5: 50%

It would be a huge waste if this offense isn’t top 10 next season with the weapons they have back, a special teams unit that can’t be worse than last year and a defense that should be better by virtue of returnees from injury. Things would have to go super well to be a top five offense without one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, but it does happen (i.e., Tennessee in 2020, San Francisco in 2019).

Now defense…

Bottom 15: 55%
Top 15: 40%
Top 10: 25%
Top 5: 5%

This is so much harder to answer than the offensive question because we know so much less information about this unit. Who’s the second safety? Who’s the 3-technique? Is Michael Pierce going to be rusty? How’s Danielle Hunter’s health? I also firmly subscribe to the notion that progress isn’t linear, so we can’t assume automatic improvement for the corners. As my percentages reflect, I still think there’s a better chance they’re in the bottom half than the top half.

@TheWizardofWasz Seen a couple lists of top 100 free agents, but they feel kinda incomplete right now because of how many cap casualties there could be across the league. Is there a list of players beat reporters believe are most likely to get cut that could be combined with current the FAs list?

Sam:

This Gregg Rosenthal article through NFL.com is extremely useful. It breaks down likely cuts for each team and updates when players get released. He already nailed a handful of the moves this week like Jurrell Casey, Adam Humphries, Alson Jeffery, Desean Jackson, Ricardo Allen, Rick Wagner, Stephen Weatherly, etc.

@Papa_ColinO Instead of imposing the Covid Cap Cuts on just a few unlucky players, why can’t a team go to all players under contract and ask them to take a 5% cut?

Sam:

Because in essence, the players would be getting doubly punished. The salary cap has to lower to regulate spending. If salaries were cut but the cap remained the same, owners would still be spending the same amount of money, just distributed to more individuals. If the salary cap went down AND salaries were cut, you’d be taking money out of players’ pockets and still have most of the same cap casualties. If the Vikings got 5 percent relief they’d probably still need to shed Kyle Rudolph’s salary and ask several others to restructure.

Besides, getting the NFLPA to agree to pay cuts across the board would require a ton of legwork, and it probably would have to be closer to 10% since the cap may be decreasing almost $20 million off the $198.2 million cap last year. Before the NFL knew they’d pull off the season, they proposed a 35% pay cut to keep in escrow and the players understandably freaked the heck out. Good luck getting the players to allow for that precedent.

@DWolfsonKSTP Yes or No: #Vikings are in on trying to trade for Orlando Brown Jr. If no, should they be and what would it cost?

Matthew:

I feel like it’s ironic that Doogie, the guy with the scoops podcast, is asking me for a scoop here. If you’re the Vikings, how would you not be making phone calls to check on the price?

The problem is that even if they move on from Riley Reiff to create the cap space for Brown, how would they put together the draft capital or players to trade that would be enticing to Baltimore? Are they trading Anthony Barr and change? A first-round pick and more? Harrison Smith and then some? I’m not sure how they could convince the Ravens to do it.

If you did trade a first-round pick and then extended Brown, how is that better than just drafting a first-round tackle and having them cost controlled?

Having Brown and O’Neill for years to come would be great for the Vikings’ O-line but I can’t figure out how to make the pieces fit. Plus, should they really be trading with Baltimore anymore?

Jeff via email: Every draft there seems like a universally accepted "top ten talent" whom drops farther than anticipated for a variety of issues: run on a certain position - like QB's or Tackles, injury history, character concerns, interviewed extremely poorly, not a team's "scheme" fit etc.  Given history repeats itself in 2021, name one "lesser need" top 10 "O" player and one "lesser need" top 10 "D" player you think realistically might drop in the draft that the Vikings would seriously consider at the #14 pick over a major need but lesser ranked available player like Edge Rusher Gregory Rousseau, or O-Linemen Davis or Vera-Tucker? Explain which of the two players you'd potentially pick at #14 and why?

Matthew:

The most obvious answer for the offensive side is Trey Lance. If the NFL isn’t convinced he can translate from FCS to the NFL or he has a bad pro day or they think he has a bad haircut or whatever, the Vikings should absolutely take him and make him the plan for 2022 or 2023.

The lesser need defensive player has to be a cornerback, right? Patrick Surtain II and Caleb Farley appear to be the only top talents at corner so if they aren’t taken in the top 10, either one would be worth considering even if it isn’t the top “need.” Corner is just so valuable and none of the edge rushers appear to be locks to be great right away.

Andy via DM: we all know Cleveland played LT in college. So did Zack Martin. Is there any evidence that the Vikings intend(ed) him to play LT--or even RT? I've seen no statements to that effect, much less any report of him practicing there for any material snaps.

Matthew:

There wasn’t any evidence last year that they think he’s a tackle. That could change pretty quickly (and it’s likely something that comes up with Rick Spielman when we talk to him this offseason) depending on Riley Reiff’s situation. If Reiff is gone, maybe they consider moving him to tackle. The fact they didn’t play him at all in camp at tackle or move him to right tackle when O’Neill got hurt against Tampa Bay indicated that they look at Cleveland as a guard.

There’s so many different ways the offensive line could go. They could move O’Neill to left tackle and keep Rashod Hill to play right. They could keep Reiff on an extension. They could draft a tackle and play them out of position too. Who knows. Some things with the Vikings are predictable — how they’ll handle offensive line decisions does not fall in that category.

@alobar26 There are some studs who didn't play college ball at all last year - Slater, Rousseau; others maybe "ranked" lower by team, but played - Darrisaw, Paye; you think that affects whether the player is viewed as a contributor this year, and whether that affects the draft?

Matthew:

I don’t think it will impact the opt-out players in 2021 in terms of their adaptation to the NFL. These guys train all year round now and they will (likely) have OTAs, minicamps and a full training camp this year that allows them to adapt. Didn’t Nick Bosa sit out and then come in and destroy the NFL? That won’t be an issue.

Evaluating these guys will be a problem. With some players, NFL teams would have wanted to know how much they would have grown in Year 3 or 4 of playing college ball. Did the guy level off or keep ascending? They didn’t get to find out. More than ever, teams will have to go on raw tools. It’ll easily be the toughest year to evaluate and maybe that opens the door to finding some gems in the middle rounds.

@bigdaddyonan The real question is why do none of the premier players want to come to Minnesota? Culture?

Matthew:

If you’re a star player, are you coming to a 7-9 team that lost most of its Pro Bowlers last offseason, is lacking cap space and had Stefon Diggs more or less call out for not communicating with him? Probably not. Players usually want to go where they can A) make the most money B) win a Super Bowl and make money because they were on a Super Bowl team.

When the Vikings looked like they had that chance in 2018, the No. 1 free agent Kirk Cousins came here and then Sheldon Richardson followed. All their premier upcoming free agents stuck around.

Once that train appeared to have left the station, the free agents left and the players stopped signing here. I don’t think it’s any more complicated than that.

If they go 11-5 next year and Jefferson has 1,500 yards and they make the divisional round or NFC Championship, free agents will be knocking again.

@FelliFel In some alternate reality, if the Bears somehow landed Russ, would that force the Vikings to go after Deshaun knowing there’s no way you have a shot with Kirk in a division with Russ and Rodgers? I’ll hang up and listen.

Matthew:

I don’t think it would change the amount they want Watson. I’m certain they want him no matter what the situation is.

The thing about Wilson landing with the Bears is that I don’t see them being vastly different from Wilson with the Seahawks. They still don’t have a great offensive line, their defense is starting to come apart and the group of weapons is just OK. I’m not certain they’re an automatic Super Bowl contender, as great as Russ is.

The problem for the Vikings is that Wilson sets the floor at 10 wins. He has already haunted them enough in Seattle and Chicago gives the Vikings a hard time when they have Mitch Trubisky or Jim Miller or Chad Hutchinson under center. If they had Wilson, it feels like they’d never beat Chicago again.

That would be some kind of Vikings-y luck. They get rid of Stafford in the division and Rodgers is on the other side of his career and here comes Russ.

Assuming Watson is totally unrealistic, the best response by the Vikings to Wilson entering the division probably would be to trade Cousins and aim to draft a QB. Everyone else would have expensive QBs so they’d have a chance to build the strongest overall roster.

@AlanRic96169029 How do the Vikings get Russell Wilson and why is it going to 100% happen?

Matthew:

I’ve got nothing here. The only chance they would have had is if Wilson was willing to play in Minnesota and they could trade him more or less straight up for Cousins. Even then, I’m not sure how you convince Seattle to deal one of the five best QBs in the game for somebody who, well, is not one of the five best in the game and whose contract is worse in some ways.

In order for any Wilson deal to happen, they have to know a QB is coming back. Derek Carr makes sense. So does Dallas tagging Prescott and trading him for Wilson. The Prescott deal would be decent for Seattle. Trading for Carr doesn’t do them a ton of good.

Odds still pretty heavily favor Wilson staying in Seattle. In fact, they should just change coaches and move forward. That’s a lot easier than finding another elite QB.

@mynamelshunter I remember hearing several times after NFL drafts that the Vikings got a "hidden gem" or "1st round talent" on the offensive line late in the draft (see: TJ Clemmings, David Yankey, etc.) Is it possible the Vikings are just bad at developing O-Line talent, not bad at drafting?

Matthew:

I don’t think it’s about development. It’s about talent. When you draft a guy like Clemmings in the fourth round, it’s just taking a lottery ticket. Those picks almost never work out, no matter how good you are at development.

I’m not a huge fan of moving guys around to different positions but if you’re a real player, you’ll figure it out. O’Neill was out of position in his first game and way in over his head, yet he figured out how to do the job.

One thing Kirk Cousins told me when I asked him about development was that players can’t put that on anybody else. Not coaches or trainers or whatever. He said they can’t rely on some magical drill or teaching point to put them over the top. It’s on the player.

Is it more likely they don’t know how to teach or that they relied on a bunch of lottery tickets year after year and none of them hit? For almost the entire Zimmer era they’ve been playing at least one or two guys for 16 games who aren’t physically capable of being NFL starters. They chose guard as the position to save money and missing on long shots or bargain bin players has bitten them.

@HollandJohnD Tell us what you like about the 2021 Draft guard prospects you mentioned in Thursday’s column and whether they are a “fit” for the Vikings’ zone blocking scheme. (Feel free to add any thoughts about whether we should tweak the scheme to fit the available personnel.)

Matthew:

You’re referring to this collection: Kendrick Green (Illinois), Josh Myers (Ohio State), Ben Cleveland (Georgia).

I’ll start by saying the scheme fit thing is a little overrated. If the player has the athleticism and is a quick enough learner to get the footwork down, they should be fine with zone blocking. Ezra Cleveland was a solid run blocker for them last year at right guard and he was doing his run blocking as a left tackle the year before. Pick good players, make it work.

That said, PFF graded Kendrick Green extremely high on zone blocking. He’s 6-4, 315 pounds and started for three years.

Myers is really agile and a big hitter. From what I can tell, he had some issues with consistency.

Cleveland might be on the big side for the Vikings at 335 pounds but he was a great pass blocker at Georgia. Per PFF he didn’t allow a single sack in three years.

My additional thought is that the middle rounds appear to have some good offensive line talent. We could see multiple offensive linemen in the third/fourth if they don’t take one early.

@BaseballNorm the Kirk truthers keep saying give him a offensive line and defense and he can lead us to Super Bowl...so what areas can you skimp on to do that with the QB making the money he is as salary cap doesn’t provide endless space?

Matthew:

In order to win with Cousins, there really can’t be a weakness on the field. Whether it’s Washington or Minnesota, he’s played with terrific rosters and usually really good coaches but there’s always been something in the way. In D.C. it was their defense, in Minnesota it’s been the guard position (and the defense last year).

We see teams pop up that are good top to bottom (and have some luck) like the 2017 Vikings, 2017 Eagles, 2019 Rams and 2019 49ers, so it’s possible that the Vikings could make a similar run with Cousins. Those teams either do that with a rookie QB contract and spending in free agency or hit on a ton of draft picks. The Vikings recently haven’t hit on those draft picks and that’s how they ended up 7-9. If they crush it in 2020 and 2021, they could very well have a complete team around him.

But I don’t see any position where they could just go super cheap and be mediocre and still have enough juice to get there.

@tjkill81 Who is your favorite non star Viking either current or past?

Matthew:

With players on the current team, they all get the same coverage, there are no favorites.

From the 90s and early 2000s there’s a ton. That one is hard. So many classic names. It’s especially tough to define “star.” Is Pat Williams a star? Who didn’t like watching Pat Williams play football. I always appreciated David Palmer. I don’t think Jeff George was a star — I’ve never enjoyed watching someone throw the football as much as him.

How about Moe Williams? The guy is a long-time special teamer and then suddenly becomes a touchdown machine at age 28. I always thought that was a really cool story.

I’d pick Fuad Reveiz on his name alone.

@benjackson0812 Football coaches make poor in game decisions all the time. What’s the worst one you have seen a coach make and did they defend their decision after the game??

Matthew:

One of the first articles I ever wrote for my college newspaper was about a decision that got Dick Jauron fired.

They were playing the Tennessee Titans and the score was 24-17 with 3:21 left. The Tians have the ball on the Buffalo Bills’ 34-yard line. On third down, Tennessee commits a holding penalty that would have made it third-and-20 and taken them out of field goal position. Jauron declines the penalty and Rod Bironas — a really good kicker — nails it from 51 yard away easily to put the game away. The Bills follow up with two pick-sixes and lose 41-17.

I never heard the explanation from Jauron but opting to allow the other team to go up by 10 rather than moving them back and trying to force a punt is the most insane coaching decision I’ve ever witnessed.

The owner of the Titans flipped off the Bills in the fourth quarter and got fined for it.

What’s weird is how often you see them at US Bank Stadium against the Vikings. Matt Rhule this year kicking a field goal at the goal line to go up six points. His team was not anywhere near the playoff race, the Vikings have a bad defense and they had just gotten a receiver wide open and missed him. And the Vikings would have to go 70 yards to tie (with the league’s worst kicker in 2020) or 99 yards to win.

There was also the time Doug Pederson had his kicker throw a pass. That was wacky.

@vikesfan1930 So what happens if the vikings upgrade o-line, 3rd Wr, best defense possible and vikings still go 9-7 or 10-6? Would the Vikings regret not trading Kirk while market is hot ? Would wilfs clean house next year cause Rick and Mike did everything right ?

Matthew:

It feels like a likely scenario, doesn’t it? My guess is that the bar to stay the course is going to be set at winning 10 in the regular season and a playoff game. Anything less than that will bring some serious questions.

Whether they would regret not trading Cousins if they went 9-7 without a playoff win is a really interesting question. Keeping him for 2021 sets a high floor and gives them a chance to be very good in 2022 if they play their cards right (and find a way to lower Cousins’s cap hit). Trading him might result in the Golden Ticket scenario of the Vikings landing that magical QB on the rookie contract or it might end up in a Chicago Bears type situation where the QB isn’t good and they waste strong rosters that took years to build.

Every decision is a gamble.

@Francis16266611 What is your projection for Jeff Gladney? Is he gong to be a good slot corner?

Matthew:

I think slot corner might be a better fit for him. Even though we really shouldn’t judge rookie corners too harshly, there’s a size element on the outside and the fact he wasn’t able to show a ton of ability to make plays on the ball. Gladney might be better served making tackles over the middle on quick throws, shooting into the backfield on blitzes and playing the run than trying to track the best of the best receivers on the outside.

I’m not closing the door on him as an outside corner, it’s just that I didn’t see a ton of raw parts of his game that would project to being top notch in that spot.

If he becomes a first-round slot guy, I’m sure it will be looked at as a bust pick but nickel corner is so important in today’s game that if he turns out to be above average, he’ll bring a lot of value.

Roger via email: Would it make more sense to possibly trade down from #14 to take a game changing DT (Barmore) and possibly grab a WR from the pick we obtain from trading down (possibly a 2nd/3rd) such as Shi Smith or if Rashod Bateman fell to early 2nd round than just grab a DE or O-line....

Matthew:

Barmore got so much pub from the way he played in the college football playoff that he might end up being a high pick. He’d be tough to turn down considering there are so few other DTs who could be instant difference makers. That said, trading down is a really good value play. If they were to move back in the first round and grab a pass rusher, tackle or somebody who unexpectedly falls, they might have a chance to pick up that lost second-round pick from the Ngakoue trade.

The second and third rounds have held some excellent value for wide receivers in recent years. Amari Rodgers from Clemson really stuck out in the Senior Bowl as did Shi Smith. I think Bateman goes early second. I would be really surprised if they traded back so much they went out of the first round.

@Seth_Keymon Big trades in the NFL never seem to work out. Maybe I’m wrong, but are big blockbuster trades even worth it in the NFL?

Matthew:

For our entertainment, yes. It’s a really long offseason man.

I looked up NFL.com’s top 15 trades in NFL history list and it’s hit and miss. Jerome Bettis to the Steelers worked out great for Pittsburgh. Marshall Faulk to the Rams. Montana had some good days with the Chiefs. Camp Bailey for Clinton Portis was awesome for the Broncos. I’d say Khalil Mack has sorta worked out for Chicago.

It’s sometimes the trades that aren’t wildly lauded at the time that end up blowing up. Steve Young to the 49ers. Brett Favre to the Packers. Heck, Jimmy Garoppolo to San Francisco turned out pretty good for the 49ers.

Usually unless there’s a quarterback involved, it’s hard for one player to ever be worth what he’s traded for. Jamal Adams is fantastic but he can only have so much impact on the Seahawks’ defense. Teams get convinced that somebody is the final piece. Rarely is someone the final piece.

@KyeBaxter Read Casserley had Fields dropping out of the top 20. On a scale of REALLY? to Aliens come to earth and chill out eating pop tarts on top of US bank stadium, now likely do you see this being and what would it say about NFL talent evaluators if he did?

Matthew:

It’s always somethin’ right? Lamar can’t throw. Cam’s smile isn’t genuine enough. Kyle Murray has smelly socks or whatever nonsense it was. If Justin Fields doesn’t go in the top 10, there has been some sort of injustice done. He isn’t Dwayne Haskins. He’s got elite arm talent, top notch athleticism, all the numbers and toughness that he showed in the CFP.

The thing about draft seasons is that you can always find somebody saying something about a prospect and then say “I’m hearing.” The goal is to reach the truth and anybody who says Fields isn’t top 20 probably isn’t telling the truth.

@smccullough5 Trade speculation is a blast this time of year. QB trade speculation cranks the volume to 11. What's the threshold where you start listening to trade offers for Kirk? What about other players like Hunter or Harrison Smith?

Matthew:

In my estimation, any Cousins trade has to involve another QB coming back who can win right now. They can’t throw away a year of Justin Jefferson’s rookie deal with Jacoby Brissett or somebody like that. If somebody comes in with an answer at QB and draft capital, they might do it.

Trading Hunter would take a lot. Defensive players being traded for two first-round picks in recent years make the standard really high. His neck injury and contract situation would lower the value a little but it has to be a first-round pick and more to even listen.

Smith’s situation might depend on Smith. If he doesn’t want to sign an extension, they might be pushed into a spot where they don’t have another choice but to see if they can get a second-round pick.

@SKOLLite Where do you value LB and CB in the draft? If BPA is kick-ass LB or CB...do you do it??

Matthew:

Linebacker could only be a consideration if the Vikings move Anthony Barr. Cornerback would drive fans nuts but that would be a yes from me. We’re always thinking about desperate immediate needs in the draft but let’s say there’s only a 50% chance Dantzler and Gladney both turn out to be good and a 50% chance Hughes gives them anything. You want to take as many shots as possible at finding a top-end cornerback.

@korns03 Why do Vikings fans hate cousins so much?

Matthew:

Honestly it’s stunning to me when anyone gets upset about other Vikings fans questioning Cousins.

This is a fan base that has watched quarterback after quarterback after quarterback get them only so close. Washed stars, journeymen, draft picks gone wrong for whatever reason (usually knee injury) and on and on. The results are always the same, for four decades. So when any QB goes 8-7-1, 10-5, 7-9 in three years after taking over a 13-3 team, they’re not going to throw a parade.

I’m not saying that anyone who defends Cousins is wrong but the goal isn’t to have your QB end the year with a good QB rating and have the losses not be all his fault. The goal is to get to the playoffs and win games. Bottom line, they haven’t done that so a lotta folks aren’t satisfied. To me, it’s fair to defend his play and it’s fair to set the standard at actually winning something. If I recall, Gary Kubiak said the “next step” in his career was going deep in the playoffs. So even he acknowledges that’s the goal here.

@co0pgoesVr00m Realistic that Barr could be traded or cut to help save money or go after a big FA?

Matthew:

Is it realistic? Yes. Is it likely? No.

It’s just hard to see Mike Zimmer letting Barr go. They fought hard for him to come back and went all-in with his contract. It would be surprising if they just said, “whoops!” and cut him. It’s more likely they restructure his deal.

The other thing that makes me skeptical is that there have been rumors about players like Trae Waynes, Kyle Rudolph and Anthony Harris being traded around the draft in each of the last few years and it never seems to come to fruition.

@AlanRic96169029 If Trey Lance falls to 14, should the Vikings take him? Or are they better off trying to trade down with a team that wants him?

Matthew:

Yep. Take him and apologize to nobody. I understand there are plenty of other needs but that’s a reason to draft Lance. If you feel like the Super Bowl is too far off right now and it’s going to take another year or two to build up to that point, why not take a high-end QB prospect with extremely good tools? They could let him sit for a year and decide what they have in him and then either extend Cousins and trade Lance or hand the keys over. As much as they need a defensive tackle, the QB future is way more important.

@DingoDonny1 Best position for a greyhound in a dog football league?

Matthew:

Deep threat receiver. My greyhound would be Marquise Goodwin. Just put her on the outside and say go and she will blow by the cornerback. Watching her go from zero to like 30 miles per hour in an eyeblink is really wild.

@brandonwagner81 We've seen a lot of FA articles based on the new salary cap floor, but I'm guessing that may go up 5-10 million based on them coming to a conclusion to add 17th game, new TV deals, spread loss into future. If they did what are some more realistic FA targets after shedding salary

Matthew:

I don’t see the cap going up this year. It sounds like the ceiling is going to be set somewhere around $186-$188 and then next year it could go way up with the 17th game and new TV deals. That means the Vikings could try to sign a big name to a contract that has a low cap hit in the first year but a big jump after that.

If I’m a free agent this year though, I’m not signing a five-year deal. It makes more sense to sign a short-term contract and try to get that money again in 2022.

@Ragnarskingdom Someone else may have asked but... if Vikes got Jurell Casey does that likely mean they won't target Barmore in the first round?

Matthew:

If they take a shot on someone like Casey, it wouldn’t preclude them from taking Barmore. They probably need to take multiple shots at finding anyone who can rush the passer. It’s not like there’s a player who flashed last year and might be ready to take the next step. They are starting at zero with interior pass rush. Picking up a rehab project and top draft pick sounds like a good plan.

@pdefor Does the Viking defensive strategy support penetrating DT play? Does the "play the run first" philosophy work against that?

Matthew:

Shutting down the run on first down is a huge priority for Zimmer because then he can play two deep safeties and put in pass rushing packages on second and third down. That’s why the Stephen-Johnson combo worked well in 2017. Johnson still played the run sometimes but they used him a lot in those passing situations where he could just chase the QB.

It seems what bugged Zimmer about Sheldon Richardson was that he was always looking for the home run play rather than controlling the gaps. I might argue the value of those QB pressures, sacks and TFLs were worth letting a few big runs go but that’s just not how the philosophy works. But they absolutely need someone inside who can get in the QB’s face, otherwise quarterbacks will just step up. We saw that quite a bit last year.

@jasdol07 I know defensive line is a big need this offseason but what, if anything could we expect from Lynch and Wonnum? Also, what second year player do you expect to make the biggest leap?

Matthew:

They talked up Wonnum quite a bit. The results didn’t suggest that they should put trust in him playing a huge role. He appears to be the type that needs several years like Stephen Weatherly. The few times that Lynch saw the field (aside from one sack in Seattle), it wasn’t pretty. He also seems like a long shot to make a difference at defensive tackle next year. Both would need to show big improvement to have large roles.

Assuming we’re not talking about the obvious Gladney/Dantzler/Cleveland, I’ll be very interested to see if they put trust in Troy Dye as the No. 3 linebacker. Last year was a tough ride for him too.

Harrison Hand and Josh Metellus should have a chance to prove in camp that they’ve grown and see more of the field than they did last year.

@bgarmani Say Houston called and said that Watson really wanted to come to Minnesota. They agree to take Cousins, two first round picks, Cook and Barr. Do you do the deal? Why or why not? Do you make a counter offer?

Matthew:

Sure.

It’s hard to say no to anything that results in DeShaun Watson being a Viking. Even if you give up a lot, you have the second best QB in the NFC and a guy you can build around for the next 7-10 years or more. The comparisons to the Walker trade are silly because of the player coming back in the trade. This isn’t a running back. This is a top-five QB who instantly gets a pair of elite receivers. Here’s the other thing: Tom Brady in Tampa shows us that players will follow good QBs.

Funny thing about the Walker trade is that the Vikings kept having good rosters in the 90s. Their quarterbacks were…not elite.

@co0pgoesVr00m Outside of the starters that replaced injured players. How many new starters do you think this team will have? I feel like Harris, Rudolph, Jaleel, Holmes and Dozier are all gone or backups

Matthew:

Let’s see… the possibilities for new starters include: Three new defensive linemen, new safety, one new corner, new left guard, either new right guard or left tackle and new WR3.

That’s a lot, huh.

@SkolBanger What’s the likelihood Cousins would do a long team-friendly deal (say 4 for $100M, hell even 5 for $125!) if it was all guaranteed? I’m not advocating but an extension seems to be the only realistic way of avoiding the ‘22 reckoning.

Matthew:

If I’m Cousins, here’s what I’m thinking: I’m going to play out my contract and become a free agent again after 2022. They can sign me then. Just putting myself in his shoes, I would feel like the team signed me to a deal and they should live with it. If you don’t like it, trade me.

Imagine what kind of money Cousins could make hitting free agency in 2022 when there’s 17 games, fans back in the stands and a new TV deal. There’s no benefit to signing a cheap extension now aside from helping them with a tough cap situation that they put themselves in.

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