Friday Mailbag: McCarthy questions

Vikings fans want to know what's next for JJ McCarthy after interesting comments at OTAs

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By Matthew Coller

Happy Friday, everyone! Well, somehow it’s late May and we have a lot to talk about so off we go…

Brian K… Is it too early to say there’s a “feel” or a “mood” for this season? If there’s already a clear tone, what does it feel like and how does it compare with other years?

Oh yeah, definitely. OTAs is always a chill vibe under Kevin O’Connell. To be honest, I’m not sure this team is ever really going to have a mood or feel problem. Even last year when they were losing, I never got the sense that people inside the locker room were turning on each other or that KOC was losing them or anything like that. They just have too many quality veterans who have seen it all to be riding the roller coaster of emotions like you might see from a team with lesser leadership.

Also I thought that the vibes were tremendous in training camp last year and by Week 2 everything was coming apart with injuries and so forth.

The thing about this team is that there isn’t a whole lot to find out about or feel out. We know all parties involved pretty well. Just gotta win.

Bradley P… Congratulations, Matthew, the Wilf’s brought you in as senior consultant. Who’s your favorite for the GM job? Any route you wouldn’t go?

Without being able to talk to these folks, it’s a little tricky to say that I like one guy over the other but I like the idea of Rob Brzezinski and Nolan Teasley as a pairing. Rob brings the institutional knowledge of how the Wilfs, KOC and the building operate and is good with asset management while Teasley brings an outside perspective from one of the elite franchises in the NFL when it comes to player evaluation.

But on paper, there’s a similar argument for all of the candidates. John McKay comes from a premier franchise and Reed Burckhardt has been a fast riser on a team that’s slowly built one of the best overall rosters in the NFL.

Ben… I know things can change rapidly and we can’t get anything from OTAs but at what point can we start to say “ it might be over for McCarthy in Minnesota” or “ McCarthy is definitely our franchise QB”

I don’t see any point unless McCarthy actually plays in a big stretch of games and is fantastic that we’re going to say definitively that McCarthy is the franchise QB. Even if he fills in for a few games and plays well, that’s not going to be enough. There are QBs that have been on teams for years like Bryce Young or CJ Stroud where it’s not entirely clear if they are the “franchise QB.”

There might be a point in training camp where we think it’s not going to work out. That would be if we see Carson Wentz taking more QB2 reps than him.

Michael H… Please share the most encouraging aspect for potential success this season you saw at OTA’s.

Well, Kyler Murray threw the ball really well and looked comfortable with the timing of the offense already. That’s a very, very tiny sample size but it was Kirk-like. Not flawless, just what you’d expect.

My thought watching him drop a dime to Jordan Addison was: Yeah, this is gonna work.

I know a lot was made of McCarthy’s press conference but Murray’s was very Sam Darnold-ish. He seemed totally comfortable and excited to be there with Jefferson/Addison/Jennings/Hockenson and he lit up when talking about communicating with KOC. There wasn’t any hint of arrogance or treating this like it’s just a stop off.

Also I’d say that the depth wide receivers all made plays. Tai Felton, Dillon Bell and Dontae Fleming all stood out. They could definitely use one or two more guys to stand out.

Robert S… In McCarthy’s press conference, he mentioned building on his last quarter of last season. This seems to reflect some feeling he has that he was on a good trajectory and may shed some light on his obviously negative feelings about the competition’s arrival. Is there anything, statistically or otherwise, to his apparent feelings about his performance in the last quarter of last season?

Yeah, he definitely played better over the final four games of the season. He completed 64% of passes with 5 TD 2 INT with a 100.4 rating and ran for a couple touchdowns. His PFF grade was 13th over the final four games.

But those numbers come with a bunch of caveats. The Packers weren’t playing their starters. Washington, Dallas and New York all fired their defensive coordinators after the season and were legitimately the three worst pass defenses in the NFL last year.

The other thing is, he threw for 703 yards in that stretch, 25th in the NFL. They “dumbed down” the offense, focused on running the ball and limiting what he had to do at the LOS. He never threw 25 passes in a game in that stretch. Plus, he didn’t finish two of the games due to injuries, so calling it “4-0” isn’t even really accurate because Max Brosmer came in to finish out the Giants game.

So, is it statistically significant? No. Unless you think Christian Ponder’s 4-0 start to finish 2012 was predictive.

However, he did show some signs of progress to the eye during those games. He was more under control and didn’t turn the ball over or take as many sacks. There were things to build off, which is where he should put his focus — playing in control and commanding the offense.

Brad L… Assuming McCarthy is back up how does he improve over the season when he’s not getting the reps he would get as a starter?

Oh there’s a million ways that he can improve even if he’s not playing. When you’re running scout team, you’re getting throw after throw after throw against the starting defense. That’s where he needs to make the most gains. Practicing those same details over and over and over until it becomes a habit.

The other thing is learning offenses. When you run scout team, your job is to master the key concepts and tendencies of the opponent so your defense can be prepared on Sunday. That means getting a lot of X’s and O’s work. The more concepts you can understand and practice, the more you can see the whole picture.

Not to mention practicing against the defense that everyone in the NFL is trying to copy. He would see all sorts of blitzes and coverage disguises day after day after day.

Would it help a young basketball player to practice vs. Rudy Gobert and Anthony Edwards every day? Would it help a better to practice against good pitchers?

We have seen example after example after example historically of QBs who got better without playing, the most notable recently is a fella named Sam Darnold, who has consistently cited his year as a backup playing for the 49ers as the point that turned around his career.

Jordan D… Not a question, but just saw a clip on Reddit comparing the QB answers to the competition question. And general consensus from a huge majority was, “Bad look for McCarthy. He sounds foolish.” Fascinating to contrast this reaction to the reaction from the McCarthy Mob.

Probably the most frustrating thing about the situation is that the fans have become a story.

I can completely understand the folks who want to believe in McCarthy’s ability to eventually become a starting quarterback but I’m appalled by the idea that Vikings fans would be against Kyler Murray because they like JJ. That makes zero sense to me. Are you Vikings fans or only McCarthy fans?

I felt that during Sam Darnold’s time, there were a lot of Vikings fans rooting against him. They wanted him to come apart in the playoffs so the team would go to McCarthy. I guess they got their wish but…

I can’t tell anyone what to root for, it has just never made any sense to me that folks would disparage a QB like Kyler who seems genuinely thrilled to be a Minnesota Viking. He grew up as a fan of the team and he seemed really happy to be playing with Jefferson, Addison and working with KOC. I would expect that to resonate with folks and I’d think you’d want to win no matter what, not just win if it’s your favorite QB.

Axel P… Hi Matthew ! I feel McCarthy’s comments are leaning slightly toward a bad attitude regarding the QB situation/competition. Last year it was supposed to be “JJ McCarthy’s year” and it ended up being “the year in which the Vikings let Darnold go and be a Super Bowl Champion elsewhere”. That’s on the franchise but also on McCarthy. Do you think that the kid gets the full picture or that he still feels he’s being anointed (and in that case bringing in Kyler doesn’t make any sense for him) ?

I’m not sure it’s possible for someone to get the “whole picture” at 23 years old. It’s crazy, Fernando Mendoza is only 10 months older than McCarthy. Bo Nix is three years older than him. And when it comes to the maturity in terms of scar tissue that gets built up from playing many games and fighting many battles over the years, McCarthy has just about none. He hasn’t gone through much adversity before now and he has never been knocked down a peg, which the NFL does to literally everyone.

It’s only a guess but based on his statements I’d say that JJ probably feels like he deserved more time before the team ran out and got a Pro Bowl quarterback who obviously was acquired to be the starter.

I’ll always say this: Nothing can prepare you for how harsh the NFL really is. At any other point in star football players’ lives, the entire world revolves around them. Now it’s a completely different story and that’s not easy to deal with.

The Vikings are worth billions of dollars and there’s careers on the line every year. They can’t wait around until a very raw player figures it out. It’s a lesson being learned the hard way here.

Walt K… Matt, first off, thanks for the recommendations for my trip to Minny. Everything was fantastic. Went to my first ever NBA game for game 6 against the Spurs. They got hosed by 30 but I made the Jumbotron! Looks like I’ve got an additional team to root for in Minnesota.

On to football, and everyone’s most anticipated camp battle, the punter’s job. I know Hekker is the favorite but Thorson is highly regarded however he has no holding experience from what I understand. How rare is it in the NFL for punters to not contribute in that role? I know some teams use their backup QB but it seems that it’s usually left to the punter.

Also, how strange is it to see some of the hate directed towards the participants of the other lesser known position battle with the QBs? What I mean is the sides taken against either player. As a fan, although I’m partial to JJ, I want both players to play well and make the decision as difficult as possible for KOC. At the end of the day that helps the team no matter who wins the competition. Not just for this season but beyond as well.

Great to hear that your trip worked out, even if the game wasn’t good.

Back in the day the backup quarterbacks used to be the holders pretty often but I can’t remember seeing it much recently. I found a way to look at last year and PFF didn’t have any QBs taking field goal snaps in 2025. So it seems that every punter in the league has to be a good holder.

I’ll be interesting in Thorson. Punting in the NFL seems like it should be the same as college but it really isn’t. It’s not just about kicking it a long way, it’s about hitting the exact right trajectory so the coverage unit can reach the returner at the same time that the ball is arriving. It has to be in the right spots. Not to mention that coffin corner kicks are becoming more and more valuable because the starting field position for teams with the new kickoff is basically within range of burying it inside the 20. The Super Bowl was great evidence of punters’ value now.

As for the QB competition, Walt, you are a rational person, so that’s why you are comfortable wanting the best QB out there even if you like McCarthy. I’m not sure that goes for everyone on the internet.

Jason… Does it make sense to start working on a Will Reichard extension soon? What would that look like?

It probably makes more sense to do an extension for him after this season. He’s set to be a free agent following 2027. Even as great as Reichard has been, kicker is a position where guys have to prove it every year, so I’m not sure they need to do an extension before they have to do it. Not that I think it’s a bad idea.

When it comes to the cost, the top kickers in the NFL are making around $7 million per year and Harrison Butker is the highest in terms of guaranteed dollars in his contract with $15 million.

Patrick G…. I have heard you talk about if Harry doesn’t return of potentially Metellus playing more of a traditional deep safety role. what are his coverage grades, and how do you think he’d perform? it seems like a traditional deep safety/coverage safety is the weakest part of his game, and being the swiss army knife, move around chess piece up at the line is where he is most effective. does the data back up my intuition?

to add on to Walt’s question with regards to holding for placekickers, when I was young, it seems like the holder was always the backup QB, and now it’s usually the punter. when did that shift take place, and what would be the reasoning for that? seems like the backup QB would be a better choice for fakes and improvising with a bad snap.

Metellus has never had great coverage numbers but he also doesn’t have large samples of playing a traditional safety spot. In the first half of the season when he had to fill in for Harry, he was OK. He ranked 38th of 67 by PFF coverage grade and gave up a 93.3 rating into his coverage.

The thing about the Vikings defense that’s interesting for Metellus is that Flores plays more two-deep safety looks than almost anyone in the NFL. Harry would line up at the LOS pretty often but usually end up in two-deep. So Metellus will have to take on that type of role and they might end up being susceptible to some deep shots against him if that’s where he’s playing for most of the season.

The thing about Metellus is that he is such a high IQ guy that his preparation is going to be Harry-like and he plays fast. He can also go get the football when there are INT opportunities. I wouldn’t be surprised if tehre’s a lot of mixing and matching based on down-and-distance.

I’m not really sure why the QB being the holder has gone away. I’ll try to remember to ask Matt Daniels. My guess is that it’s because if the backup QB has to play, then you have your starting QB as your holder. Everyone remembers the Tony Romo thing. Maybe that was the play that killed it.

Jordan D… Ignoring McCarthy’s attitude, if he doesn’t show vast improvement this offseason, is there no timeline where this works out with the Vikings? I think if everything went perfectly he still needs 5 more years to develop into a Super Bowl caliber QB. Sounds like some other team’s project to me.

Five years seems like a long time. If it’s going to take that long, then yes, he’ll be starting elsewhere in 2031.

But if there was a scenario where McCarthy came in for Kyler Murray due to injury or poor play and ended up having a great season, the Vikings can use the fifth-year option. Or if he even played just OK and they didn’t want to stick with Kyler, they could have him compete for the job in 2027 and see what happens and then use the franchise tag if they absolutely needed to do that. There are ways to buy time if they want to buy time. That’s what we’re going to find out.

And just in general, I’m less afraid of having to pay a QB now because things have changed in the NFL. The way teams can manipulate the salary cap and the fact that the cap keeps going up by wild amounts every year has made it way more manageable than when Kirk was here. Kirk’s deals were short term, almost completely guaranteed and always carried huge cap numbers vs. the cap. Now, nobody’s QB contract looks like Kirk’s did.

Andrew C…. I’m a big fan of the move to bring in Kyler, and think this can only help JJ to sit a year and work on his craft. I feel the mistake of moving on too soon from Sam Darnold (which I was on board with at the time) and going with McCarthy site unseen may work out to be the BEST mistake the Vikings could make for a few reasons.

1. We are able to move on from Kwesi for a better GM (even if the blame wasn’t squarely on him and he’s just the scape goat)
2. We brought in a 1st overall drafted QB with great ball accuracy and amazing mobility
3. We still have a cheap QB room with a cap space to build a strong roster moving forward
Am I crazy for thinking this could be a great Vikings team with a better future than if we signed Sam Darnold, with Kyler working out to be a top 12 QB?

If you’re trying to talk me into it being actually good that they let go of Sam Darnold, then I’m not going to be able to get to that level of rationalization there with you. I’ve heard over and over, “no way the Vikings win with Darnold last year!” …Which is odd because for big parts of 2025 they looked like a team that would have been super scary if they only had a really good QB. If Darnold had played great again, they could have signed him to a long-term extension and traded JJ McCarthy while his value was still high or put him on a Jordan Love plan. That’s better than hoping Kyler works out because you already know how great Darnold was in this offense.

However, could they get away with one of the biggest blunders in NFL history? Yes, yes sir they could. There is an issue with having to pay Kyler after this year if things work out but I think they’ll be able to do that in a manageable way.

I’m also convinced from watching a lot of Arizona Cardinals football that Kyler is going to feel like he’s in a totally different universe playing in this offense and we’re going to see the best from him that we’ve ever seen.

Gary A… Do we know if Jefferson or any of the receivers are working with Murray or McCarthy outside of organized training?

Jefferson talked about working with McCarthy. Someone said something about Addison throwing with Murray but I haven’t stalked social media to see for sure.

It’s nice if these guys can get together and throw. Does it really mean a whole lot in the big picture? Probably not.

Florian K… From your latest article I just read concerning JJM’s presser, I know you’re a just a guitar slinging sportswriter and not a psychologist but, do you think he’s mature enough to handle the load of an NFL QB right now? He has the skills. He’s competitive for sure. He’s also dealt with depression and such and he’s seems like a good kid. But he’s also never really felt much football adversity. And adversity is where you learn and grow the most. You know what I would hate? I would hate if the Vikings gave up on him only for him to be the next Sam Darnold somewhere else. And that would be great for him but suck as a Vikings fan.

I try not to overdo it when it comes to the psychology but I do agree with your point about growing through adversity and you’re probably onto something when talking about how he hasn’t faced much of that in his career to this point.

I am obligated to point out that Sam Darnold is a pretty insane outlier in a lot of ways. In terms of sheer arm talent, he’s in the top five in the NFL. It’s probably easier to solve problems with being overly aggressive or struggling to identify certain defenses than it is to solve the issue of being super inconsistent with accuracy and touch on top of dealing with learning to handle an NFL offense and weigh when to be aggressive.

We live in a world where the rookie contracts have opened the door to more reclamation projects than every before though, so it’s fair to want to see this play out here.

Yesterday I saw a bunch of people saying “just trade JJ now!” I’m not subscribing to that line of thinking right now because the QB position is so fickle. We never know what’s coming next.

Bradley P… How far away are the Vikings from the rest of their division? What has to happen for them to take the north?

There’s probably a five point checklist of things that would need to happen for the Vikings to win the NFC North.

1 - Kyler Murray is really good. You’re not winning the North without a top-10 offense.

2 - The defensive line holds up and some young dudes on defense rise to the challenge.

3 - Chicago regresses a little after a year of freaky turnover luck.

4 - The Lions never get back to the same level as 2023 and 2024 because they can’t block for Goff the same way.

5 - Green Bay is just mid on offense with a questionable run game and lack of top WR and they struggle on D until Micah Parsons returns.

How possible is it? I’d give the Vikings as good of odds to win the NFC North as any of the other teams in the division.

Robert S… I assume someone’s asked this already, but when before has there been a qb room of three top ten overall picks?

In 2024 when Daniel Jones arrived. There’s probably quite a few examples of two guys like Michael Penix Jr. and Tua or Josh Allen and Mitch Trubisky or Eli Manning and David Carr.

Three of them is pretty darn rare. KOC might have to call Tim Couch and see if he can get something going.

Jimmy B… I am wondering why the Wilfs have not hired a GM yet? Stalling to make it look like it is thorough? The main question is? Are the OTAs broadcast somewhere?

The timeline has made sense to me. They started the process after the draft, cast a wide net, settled on five finalists and then did their interviews this week. We should have a GM soon.

OTAs are not broadcast anywhere and it would be hilarious if it was. I know people desperately want Vikings football and I love every single one of you for that but watching OTAs is like watching a shootaround in the NBA. There is not a ton of action, folks. We try our best to take as many notes as possible and point out when certain guys make plays but these are sllllooowwww practices. It’s a lot of teaching, 7-on-7 and individual drill stuff. The intensity is about a 3 out of 10. It’s not training camp.

Jeffrey S… Can I say I am excited to see a punter competition? And should Thorson win, does it free up a spot on the roster as he is an international player (Ie, we effectively have 54 roster spots on the team)?

I know too early to tell, but do let us know which guys look intriguing (we know Jordan Addison is good).

Very reasonable to be excited about the punting competition. I’d be disappointed in you if you weren’t, Jeffrey. If Thorson makes the 53-man roster, he’s on the 53. It’s not a cheat code to get an extra player. But if he doesn’t make the 53, they can keep him around.

The guy on Day 1 who stood out to me was Dillon Bell, the UDFA receiver from Georgia. There’s some jolt there.

Keep in mind, it’s in shorts with zero contact being allowed but every so often we get a hint from the spring who’s going to be good in camp.

Arin J….Matthew, I have been a McCarthy supporter. As long as I have been a fan Kramer, Cunningham, Culpepper, Bridgewater, we all want a franchise QB. After last season, there is no doubt McCarthy needed to improve. Murray is the starter deserves to be the starter and if he is as good as I expect he will be we will likely be talking about playoffs with only the Ram and Seahawks as better contenders.

Not saying we are better just equal to the other contenders. Lots to go and the Defense is my biggest concern with all the new people. Would love your opinion on McCarthy this camp vs others and vs Murray. Vikings fan forever regardless of the QB.

In my latest podcast with Drew Dinsick of NBC Sports Bet, he said that he feels like the NFC is as “flat” as it’s very been, meaning that the parity is crazy. There’s a ton of proven quarterbacks, really good coaches and strong rosters, making it anybody’s race. Certainly LA and Seattle are the favorites but after that it’s totally up in the air.

The way I look at McCarthy in training camp is that it’s McCarthy vs. McCarthy, not vs. anyone else. He has to take advantage of every rep and focus on himself every day rather than worrying about the QB competition. If he makes strides and commands the offense, they’re going to feel pretty good about the QB room. If he isn’t doing the extra work and is treating this like he’s waiting to be done in Minnesota when Kyler gets the first-team reps, then it’s not going to go well. It’s truly up to him how this goes.

Jeffrey S… Also, your gut feeling... Let`s assume KM does not get hurt. How good do you think he needs to be for the Vikings to give him a long term contract (I know it should be done in buckets but to keep it simple) Would he need to be a top 10 QB? Top 15?

The markers that I’d set are winning at least 10 games with a top-15 performance from him in terms of PFF grade and the team finishes in the top 15 in passing EPA and he scrambles for another 400 to 500 yards.

I know that ideally we’d like to set the bar at Murray being an MVP candidate or you move on but they’re not likely to be in a great position to draft another QB. If they can lock into place someone who’s good enough to get them in the conversation, then it becomes a Jalen Hurts or Sam Darnold type thing where the onus is on the front office to build an elite roster and the coaching staff to elevate everyone.

That’s a much better place to be than chasing, chasing, chasing when it comes to the QB position.

The fact that there is a middle class of QB contracts really helps in this discussion. If it was either pay $60 million or he walks, that would be different. But Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones really set a precedent.

jcphitman… I’ve read about the contract dispute between Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals. My prediction is he will get some sort of salary bump to help them tank in 2026 (although I do think he can steal a couple of games for them in the right situation).

I heard some Cards commentator take a shot on Murray when watching a video discussing Brissett. Would it have been better for the Cardinals to simply keep Murray his final year and forego whatever tank plans they have? They’re paying him anyway. How bad will it look for them if Murray takes off for the Vikings this season? It’s hard enough to find even competent QB play in the NFL. The Vikings clearly regret letting Darnold walk. Do you think the Cardinals will follow with Murray (I wonder if they regret letting him walk if they had known Brissett would be holding out like this?)?

It was better for Arizona to move on from Murray. Let’s say he was his usual self and they went 7-10 with him in 2026. Then the Cards would have had a choice to either give him another big contract extension or have him play on an insanely high salary cap hit in 2027. Both of those options aren’t ideal for a team that’s trying to totally rebuild from the ground up.

They won’t regret moving on from him in terms of when they did it. They will regret not being able to give him the defense and supporting cast he deserved.

Quick crazy fact: Kyler Murray NEVER had a top-10 defense in Arizona and they ranked 28th or worse three times during his time there.

Arizona is also 23rd in net EPA on special teams since 2019.

Baaaaad team.

They couldn’t keep bumbling around Kyler and wasting everyone’s time.

Chris C…. Could you please rank these WR from best to worst in your opinion?

Devonta Smith
Jordan Addison
Jokobi Meyers
Brian Thomas Jr.
Marvin Harrison Jr.

Thanks to you I have been going down this rabbit hole of trying to see if I actually think Addison is a top 20 wr and why by trying to tier them in pools. I think how I have them ranked above is how I would do it but you know more about football than I do and I would value your opinion. It’s because of your takes on MHJ that I have him in this pool. Quite honestly would have had him higher based on perception had I not gone watched the film like you suggested.

Yep, I’ll go with the exact order you have. Smith, Addison, Meyers, Thomas Jr. and Harrison Jr.

When Addison is at his best, I’d definitely say he’s a top 20 wide receiver. There’s a little bit of burden of proof in that when it comes to this year because he struggled so much last year (and it wasn’t all JJ’s fault).

Harrison Jr. reminds me a lot of Laquon Treadwell. A super strong guy that overpowered everyone in college but it’s just not the same in the NFL. He struggles to separate, he hasn’t been great catching the ball and there were a lot more miscommunications than you ever see with top receivers.

ThePurplePlague… I would bet the over on “amount of QBs starting for Vikings in 2026 season” all the way to, and including, 2.5. You?

One thing I know for sure is that there’s nothing more unpredictable than injuries. I guess I’d go under because most teams don’t end up playing 3+ but who knows.

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