Friday mailbag: Dallas 2.0? Jags history and Zimmer blitzes

Twitter lit up with questions this week as the Vikings head into a pivotal game against the Jags

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Happy Friday everyone, get out your Tony Boselli jerseys and let’s see what Vikings fans had on their minds this week…

@BenjaminMeyerMD Why didn't the Vikings keep Ngakoue to potentially receive greater value in a trade during the offseason? We'll miss that second rounder we gave to Jacksonville.

The Vikings could have franchise tagged Ngakoue this offseason and then traded him to somebody else but I really doubt they could have gotten anything better than a third-round pick under those circumstances. He would be very expensive for 2021, in need of a new long-term contract and presumably coming off a year that was pretty meh (if he continued to play the same way).

If we judge the Ngakoue trade as its own entity and not through the lens of the screw-up in trading for him in the first place, it was a good deal. They clearly had no plans to pay him in the long term and dumped someone who wasn’t producing in the way that they expected when the trade was made. Plus nobody else traded out third-round picks for rentals around the league.

To your second point, absolutely, 100% they will miss that second-round pick. Use recent history to show you that. Eric Kendricks, Dalvin Cook, Irv Smith Jr., Ezra Cleveland. You expect to get impact players in the second and there’s a huge drop in talent between the middle of the second and middle/late third round.

This is what’s going to make the Vikings’ rebuild on defense tough. Even if they draft a first-round defensive player, they have missed on most of their recent defensive picks and don’t have the cap space to fill open spots. So they’ll need guys like Jeff Gladney/Cam Dantzler and whoever they pick in the first round in 2021 to be really good players.

@GriffRobMike Are the Vikings going to win or is this game Dallas 2.0?

The entertaining part about the 2020 Vikings is that nobody has any idea. I’d love to tell you there’s no idea they mess this one up but here’s a quick comparison of the Cowboys and Jaguars:

Offensive Expected Points Added: Cowboys 26th, Jaguars 25th

Team passer rating: Cowboys 23rd, Jaguars 26th

Rushing yards per attempt: Jaguars 9th, Cowboys 18th

Defensive points allowed: Cowboys 32nd, Jaguars 30th

Defensive QB rating allowed: Cowboys 30th, Jaguars 32nd

Last week, Mike Glennon almost beat the Cleveland Browns. Is it possible he could make a few plays and their running back break off a few runs in order to keep this game close? Absolutely.

Even in the games the Vikings have won, they’ve made huge errors and opened the door for their very bad opponents i.e. fumbles vs. Chicago and Carolina.

The only team they really smoked was Detroit, who had the worst coach in football.

Maybe I’m reverse jinxing them. Now they’ll beat the Jags by 40.

@jvangelder Zimmer talked about 'taking shots' on defense, where they seem to play pretty safe and blitz like crazy on certain 3rd downs and others. One play against the bears ended in a long TD. couple in the panthers game could have ended in TDs. Thoughts on when/why Zimmer sends heat?

I think you might mean Dallas because the only Bears’ TD was on the kick return. But when the Cowboys or Panthers picked up the blitzes, they did turn some into positive plays. Zimmer dialed the blitzes back against Carolina. Bridgewater was only blitzed seven times per PFF.

Zimmer knows the best chance his defense has is to keep everything in front of them and force 10-15 play drives. He’s been playing a ton of two-deep safeties to avoid leaving his corners on an island with any top receivers. He’s willing to allow 5-yard runs and short throws because eventually the offense will end up with a third-and-long. That’s where he can dial up things to force quicker/inaccurate throws or get sacks. The Vikings are certainly not sixth in third-down percentage because of their talent on the DL or DB groups.

He’s going to make those decisions entirely on opponent tendencies, strengths and weaknesses. My guess is that he has a very good idea entering a game what plays an opponent turns toward on third-and-long because there’s only so many things you can do in those spots. So he attacks those.

I suspect on the third down that Robby Anderson scored, Zimmer anticipated that Teddy would look for something underneath when he sent the overload blitz on the offense’s weak side. He expected it to be in the area of Ifeadi Odenigbo, who dropped back into coverage. Instead the RB picked up the blitz really well and gave Teddy that extra half second for Anderson to run by Odenigbo.

That’s the risk and reward but Zimmer wins way more often than he loses on those.

@andrew_schuba Did you create the theme song for your podcast?

I did. Here’s the link to the entire song, if you want to hear it.

I started playing guitar during the grunge era and began recording music in college when my little band got some recording time in the college’s studio. I’d love to have some more time to make music but, ya know, football. So it’s a fun hobby to sit down and write a little jam every once in awhile.

@JoshPelto Mark Brunell - your thoughts?

He wasn’t perfect but probably a top 10 QB for a stretch from about 1996 to 2002. If you look at other QBs from the mid-90s to early 2000s, he compares favorably. Brunell has a higher career Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt than Steve McNair.

It was an interesting era because there were a few megastar QBs that were aging and then a huge drop off. In 1996, he was the best QB not named Elway, Favre, Marino, Young.

The only thing about Brunell that Purple Insider would have heavily criticized if it was Jaguar Color Insider back in those days is that he got sacked a TON. In ‘96, he got sacked 50 times.

Plus he had about the best supporting cast you’ll ever find with Jimmy Smith/Keenan McCardell/Fred Taylor/Tony Boselli.

@BrianWGR Greatest moment in Doug Marrone history? But you can't use the word "punt" in your answer

As many of you know, I came to Minnesota via Buffalo and covered St. Doug there. A couple favorite stories:

— One time Marrone was listening to our radio station in his truck on the way to the facility when I compared him over the air to Mark Jackson with the Warriors. There was a quote from the Warriors’ owner about how Jackson was a good coach but nobody in the building could stand him. I don’t know how Marrone’s done in Jacksonville with interpersonal relationships (though I noticed a lot of guys wanted out, maybe that was Tom Caughlin’s fault) but I’ll stand by that comparison for the way he acted as head coach of the Bills. I remember team employees making Rex Ryan a cake when he arrived.

— Marrone once told Jerry Hughes “if you don’t want to be here you can leave” or something to that extend when they had a disagreement during camp. Not too long after that Hughes signed a massive contract extension. It was classic college coach speak, which does NOT play with grown men who know their worth.

— Doug also did these wild radio interviews when he first got to town. He ripped on the team’s PR guy for not providing wings for the press box and my understanding is the PR guy didn’t take it too well. He also said something to the extent of being so upset over losing that he wouldn’t pet his dog.

I have zero doubt of the man’s football acumen. But he did some wacky stuff (and really loved punting on the opponent’s 40).

@benjackson0812 know it’s 2 weeks ahead but based on what you’ve seen so far from the Bucs do the Vikings have a better chance to win there than they did preseason??

This offseason I had no idea what to think of the Bucs. It seemed to make sense that they would be a very good team but eventually age comes for everybody and that seems to be happening with Brady (and I don’t get the sense Bruce Arians is helping the situation a ton). If you told me they were 7-4 after 11 games, that would have sounded about right considering their supporting cast and defense are almost too good for them to be a bad team.

I would have assumed during the offseason the Vikings would have a good offense and questionable defense so it’s probably not a lot different. It wouldn’t have been a guaranteed loss when picking W’s and L’s but this game wouldn’t have been one where I picked the Vikings to win — and I probably won’t when they face them this time no matter what happens against Jacksonville.

However, if they do win that game, we can talk about them as a legit team that’s going to be scary to play in the playoffs rather than just being a product of the recent soft schedule.

@rufiox3 Is DJ Wonnum on the trajectory to be a good NFL DE and can Odenigbo, Wonnum and Hunter be the answer going into next Season.

They should be looking at defensive ends in the first round of the draft. Wonnum is doing fine and Andre Patterson raves about him as a person but relying on him to become a full-time starter going forward would be risky. I look at him as much more of a Stephen Weatherly type who can be a good rotational player. Same goes for Odenigbo.

Ideally you’d have two star rushers on each edge and then other players who can mix and match. Philadelphia in 2017 worked that way with Brandon Graham and Chris Long on the ends and then Derek Barnett, Vinny Curry etc. coming in depending on the situation.

It’s not that I’m down on Wonnum — he’s come along nicely this year — just realistic about his ceiling. Danielle Hunter going from third-round to superstar is a complete anomaly and we shouldn’t ever compare any mid-round picks with length and athleticism to him.

@JMike5490 I am digging your musical background music on the ads. Did you produce that and if so what did you use to record it? Football question; does Minnesota have the horses to beat Tampa?

I’m happy to hear that some of you are listening to the Purple Insider podcast and enjoying the show’s jams. It wasn’t tough to record, I just plugged my guitar into Garage Band and created the drums and bass around it.

The thing about the five teams racing for those three playoff spots (I’ve already counted out the Bears, sorry Bears) is that they all have enough strengths and weaknesses to make a case that they belong and don’t belong. That goes for Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota. The Bucs still have the GOAT at QB, tons of weapons and all sorts of talent on the defensive side. But Brady hasn’t been playing well of late and the Bucs’ defense has shown some signs of weakness. On the other side of the coin, the Vikings lost to Atlanta and Dallas and should have lost to Carolina. It’s hard to say that they’re to be trusted in big games.

I’ve never felt less sure about results on a week-to-week basis than in 2020.

@HoF_Hitman Do you wish the Vikings had kept either Sloter or Heinecke as a backup? Do you think we would ever consider signing Hollins from the practice squad for punt returns

Yeah, no. There’s like 30-35 humans walking around this planet who can effectively play NFL quarterback — and I’m counting people like Matt Moore and Chase Daniel in that mix. Kyle Sloter and Taylor Heinicke are not on the list. They fall into the category of guys who are losing every single game if they play and end up looking like Ben DiNucci or Nathan Peterman in the process.

The Lions played David Blough instead of Sloter and then cut Sloter to keep Blough, who went 0-5 with a 64.0 rating as a starter for Detroit last year. Everyone loves a developmental quarterback, I get it. But in reality, they aren’t good enough to play at this level.

Sean Mannion isn’t one of the top backups in the league like Daniel or Andy Dalton but he’s way better than those guys. He has good arm strength and accuracy and very high football IQ. Do people think Sean McVay and Gary Kubiak are somehow fooled by Mannion’s good looks and that’s why they want him as their backup? It’s because he can operate an NFL offense to the point where his team might win a game that he starts — a real game, not the fourth quarter of a preseason game.

To your question about Alexander Hollins, well, who knows. My guess is that Ameer Abdullah is next man up to try the carnival game that has become catching punts for this team.

@sachikojohnson Why do you suppose Oli Udoh is not getting a chance to start? They only see him as an OT?

I know Udoh had a decent Week 17 last year and some solid days against backups in camp but he’s a major project with a long way to go before being considered to start. He’s a player you only play out of position in an emergency. He isn’t even the top backup at his own position (Rashod Hill is).

Best case scenario for Udoh is probably that he takes over for Rashod Hill as the swing tackle and they cross train him at guard just in case. If someday he becomes anything more than that, he’ll have wildly outdone his draft status and overachieved by a lot vs. his talent.

Think about it this way (and I know this team struggles with O-line decisions), they picked Elflein, Samia, Cleveland and Jones over him at guard.

@KyeBaxter Do you think the reason the Vikings thought Samia would hold up at RG is because their interior defensive line is underwhelming, they didn't get to have joint practices against other teams to expose Samia, and preseason games weren't available to put the nail in the coffin?

My feeling on that is they felt Ezra Cleveland wasn’t ready to play right guard without more practice and Brett Jones wasn’t a great scheme fit for what they want to do in the run game. Jones isn’t anywhere near as athletic as Samia so they probably figured if Samia could even hold up against the pass rush, he could be a plus in the run and screen game.

Of course, that turned out to be not true at all and they clearly should have gone with Jones if they thought Cleveland wasn’t ready. To me, this is a fundamental flaw in O-line decisions. A lot of times coaches look for the guys with the higher end athleticism/strength etc. but they miss something obvious: You can’t screw up at O-line. Mistakes ruin plays. You’re better off having someone who doesn’t have high end play but avoids horrendous miscues.

I don’t think it was the D-line being weak that made him look good in practice, I think they were just going for which guy had potential.

@Drdanks49 How much do the vikings miss diggs?

One take that I can’t quite get behind is that the Diggs trade was actually good because they got Jefferson. They lucked the heck into Jefferson. It’s astonishing that the Eagles would take a guy who barely had any catches in college vs. the most dominant receiver in college football in 2019.

Not to mention that they had the 25th pick and could have traded up for Jefferson anyway and had him, Diggs and Thielen if they had been on good terms with Diggs. That would have been the second coming of Three Deep.

It’s also never a good thing to have an elite player want out because he’s upset with the offensive philosophy and the team refuses to engage with him on the matter. Fans should hope a lesson was learned during that process.

You can definitely say say “whew, dodged that bullet” or “all’s well that ends well” with Jefferson taking over as an elite receiver but the process of moving Diggs put them at risk of being in a tough spot at receiver for years.

@RobDN1 Bigger draft mistake - Christian Ponder or Blake Bortles?

The fact that Bortles got the Jags to an AFC Championship immediately makes him the better QB but in a way, Bortles was the bigger mistake because they kept him after that.

Plus going back to the 2017 draft, there was never any evidence to suggest the Jags should be all-in on Bortles and yet they passed on Mahomes/Watson to draft a RB and keep Bortles and then refused to look elsewhere after he fell backwards into an AFC Championship team.

The Vikings didn’t make that mistake. They drafted Teddy rather than continuing to roll Ponder out there.

Another point is that Bortles was picked higher. They really thought he was going to be great.

@AKitz Are there any updates on Holton Hill or Hughes?

Unfortunately no. It felt like Hill’s injury wasn’t supposed to be long term because they didn’t put him on IR right away but we haven’t heard anything about him or Hughes returning from IR.

Certainly makes you wonder about both players’ status long term. They are very unlikely to pick up Hughes’s fifth-year option and now they have to view next year as his last chance to show he can stay healthy

@KAAAAAHN_tk421 Can your next book be an anthology of short stories from fans and players around important / memorable games in Vikings history?

My book you say? Wow I didn’t beg for questions about my book on Twitter in order to promote it during this mailbag at all, so thank goodness someone asked! Here’s the link if y’all haven’t checked it out yet.

Heh. I haven’t thought about a second book yet. I’ve always thought it might be a cool podcast idea to have fans tell their favorite stories of being at famous games. Maybe there’s a book idea there. Something like that would be a fun project.

@smccullough5 Of the players currently at the end of their contracts who has played well enough to be brought back and of those players who is GM Coller bringing back?

If we’re only talking unrestricted free agents and not players like Riley Reiff who we expect to be on the chopping block, that’s a tough answer.

It would make sense to release Anthony Barr and re-sign Eric Wilson but the Vikings moving on from Barr doesn’t seem realistic as long as Mike Zimmer is the head coach. Aside from Wilson, Anthony Harris is a good player but his price tag is probably going to be too high. The only other UFAs who play are Dakota Dozier and Jaleel Johnson. Good chance both will be replaced next year.

The Tajae Sharpe experiment went sideways so he won’t be back. The new long snapper is good. I’d bring him back.

If we’re talking about presumptive cap casualties, that’s where it gets tricky. Kyle Rudolph is far too expensive for his role but he’s still very reliable. Maybe a restructure? Same with Riley Reiff. Do you really want to cut a guy who’s playing well at left tackle? Lots of hard decisions to come.

@smccullough5 Better season for long snapper controversy, 2017 or 2020 or random year and why?

Oh hey, this very long snapper controversy was addressed in my book that all of you should buy and read and buy for others for Christmas or whatever holiday you celebrate!

Although 2017 wasn’t really a controversy, it was Kevin McDermott getting hurt and his replacement finding his way into Vikings lore. The Vikings made the right call with Austin Cutting. Long snappers can’t have any mistakes, much less three or four in a few week span.

@SamRoot43 Would the answer to the question "Could Super Bowl LII have been Vikings vs. Jaguars if the 2017 Vikes and 2017 Jags swapped QBs?" be the same as the answer to the question "Will the Vikings win this weekend vs. the Jagaurs?"

Trying to follow here… you’re saying if Blake Bortles is the QB of the 2017 Vikings they reach the Super Bowl? Nah, I don’t think anybody was beating that Eagles team. We should give them credit for having one of the strongest top-to-bottom rosters of the last decade. Case Keenum maybe gets the Jags over the hump against the Patriots. Keenum is decidedly better than Bortles. But even then, Keenum vs. Brady probably still doesn’t go Case’s way without another miracle.

What’s crazy to me is that the Jags sticking with Bortles after that might work out for them in the long run when they pick Zach Wilson or Justin Fields.

@vikesfan1930 Matt, why do we keep drafting special teams players ? Not sure why Rick gets cute, is it because usually by 5th to 7th rounds , its a 50/50 shot anyways? why not just go undrafted pool, after draft? I liked Austin Cutting cause of military

I honestly have no idea. It’s never really worked out for them. Jeff Locke, Blair Walsh, Daniel Carlson, Austin Cutting, KJ Osborn.

The way they got Dan Bailey, Britton Colquitt and this new long snapper is the best way to pick up a specialist: Sign someone who’s already proven they can do the job.

Not that seventh-round picks are any more than a swing for the fences anyway but it shouldn’t ever be used on someone who’s Wins Above Replacement upside is zero and downside can cost you games. Think about it…if you pick a seventh-round receiver and he’s not good, he just won’t play and that’s that. If you draft a specialist, you’ll very likely end up playing them and if they’re bad, you’ll lose (or tie) games because of it.

@JoshuaR_Smith Better offensive quartet: Brunell-Smith-McCardell-Taylor or Cousins-Thielen-Jefferson-Cook?

That’s a great question. I’m going Brunell-Smith-McCardell-Taylor.

From 1996 to 2000 the Jags were a top 10 offense in yards every year and they won 52 games in that stretch. Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell are both top 25 in receptions in NFL history and Fred Taylor is 17th all-time in rushing. There’s a good case for Smith and Taylor to be in the Hall of Fame.

If the Vikings go 14-2 with this combo at some point like the Jags did in 1999, I’ll give them a tie.

@ramseykincannon given that it takes good OL/DL a couple of years to really establish themselves (Ie Teller and Quiennen Williams) would you rather take an OT/other position round 1 or trade the pick for an already established player on Y2/3 of their rookie contract?

If there’s a Minkah Fitzpatrick deal to be had, it would make sense to trade for them considering the Vikings’ timeline. But how often does that happen? Good players in the second or third year of their rookie deals rarely get traded unless there’s some serious problem.

There’s a subtle good point in here though. Next year the Vikings will pick a player they expect to make an instant impact but often you don’t see the draft really mattering until a few years down the road (unless you land the Justin Jefferson of the offensive or defensive line).

@sgarvey03 Rank the 5 best quarterbacks in Vikings history. How close is Kirk? I feel like Vikings fans are under appreciating stability at a position where we have underachieved (especially post 2000)

1 - Fran Tarkenton

2 - Culpepper

3 - Favre

4 - Kramer

5 - Moon

6 - Cunningham

7 - Cousins

8 - Johnson

9 - Wilson

10 - Gannon

Right now Kirk’s tenure is still more known for 18 regular season wins over two years with Super Bowl expectations and then a rollercoaster this year. Three weeks ago this entire mailbag was filled with questions about his contract and how to replace him.

If he brings them back from the dead to make the playoffs he can pass Johnson and Moon. If Cousins remains on the team in 2021 (95% chance right now) and puts together another good year and gets them to the playoffs, he could shoot up that list to fourth or maybe even third depending on how good the season goes.

Feel free to leave your own lists in the comment section…it’s not an easy list to make.

*Updated to include the top 10

@robbQthibault Ok, for your book MOAM... who would you love to do the narration of the audio version ? Why? I think Case Keenum should provide the introduction , only. #GoMattGo

Hooboy another question about my book. I didn’t even remotely put any of you up to this, I swear….but hey maybe you need that link again so here it is

If I were to have someone write an introduction, my top nominees would be:

1 - Stefon Diggs - He’s a truly interesting player. He never says everything he’s thinking so it would be great to get his internal feelings on that year and the Miracle.

2 - Case Keenum - Maybe Case would do a tell-all intro on what he really thought of Zimmer’s public comments about him that year

3 - Terence Newman - Smartest player I’ve ever been around. Sees everything with different dimensions.

4 - Latavius Murray - A lowkey star of that season and very intelligent player.

5 - Sam Bradford - Got him to talk about 2017 a little but would love to hear everything he went through behind the scenes

6 - Sean Payton - Would he apologize to Vikings fans for the SKOL chant late in the Miracle game?

I have no idea how to do an audio book. Do people listen to those?

@ChadBurkitt Cousins said he wanted to work on his unscripted play during last off season (Watch out for his tennis game). He’s looked better to me this year. Is there a way to measure whether he’s actually improved?

Going to have more on this subject for my Sunday feature but the answer is… I don’t know. I remember talking to a Football Team reporter in 2018 before Cousins’s Viking debut and he said that a major storyline for Football Team in 2017 was Cousins playing more effectively for Football Team off schedule and running around more.

With Cousins, whatever just happened always seems like a mirage. If he’s horrible one week, that’s not who he is. If he’s unbelievable the next week, that’s not who he is either.

It looks to my eye like he’s improved in that area. However, the odds of him going off schedule and making a brilliant play are probably similar to the odds of him going off schedule and throwing a crazy pick.

@alstrain Super Bowl, down 4, 1:20 left and one timeout. You have to choose one Vikings QB (not Kirk) from the last 25 years to lead your drive to win the title. Who is your pick?

While we’re ranking stuff…

1 - Favre

2 - Fran

3 - McMahon

4 - Moon

5 - Bridgewater

Speaking of which, football is weird right? If the Panthers make a 54-yard field goal, we’re talking about how Teddy led a game-winning drive over Kirk and this mailbag is 98% offseason questions. Instead we’re talking about Kirk being a top all-time Viking QB and playoff position. What a sport.

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