Regarding cliches to describe prospects I love when an o-lineman is described as great in the "phone booth" which usually means "not a good fit for the Vikings running scheme." Also, I think you might have meant "road grader" not "road grater."
On trading back to pick up a second I think you're too pessimistic based on the trade value charts. FanSpeak uses Rich Hill's chart as far as I know, and that says the Vikings 14th pick is worth 325 points so trading back to say Cleveland at 26 (223 points) and 59 (91 points) comes out pretty close at 325 to 314 points. I know the points themselves don't make it so, there's got to be a player there that someone wants enough to move up to get, but you listed a couple with Pitts and Surtain. Maybe Alabama WRs Smith and Waddle are there and someone's hungry enough to move up for them.
Last, you and Courtney talk about fans wanting to move back, but then complaining about all the late round picks. As one of those fans I can say it's not mutually exclusive. We would like Rick to move back in the first to get more Day 2 second and third rounders, not to keep piling up an endless supply of Day 3 picks that usually amount to nothing. I would like him to get five or even six shots in the Top 100, meaning through the third round. I hope this year he's feeling on the hot seat enough to do more of that. One could also argue they had to redshirt a ton of their 15 rookies from last year so no reason to load up on late rounders again this year; they've got enough work to do with all those young players from the last draft without adding a dozen more. One draft scenario I'd ask you to try is get 6 players by the end of the third and see what you come up with.
I'll clarify the point... if you're moving back to pick up 3rd and 4ths or future good picks, that's great. If you're moving back 15 spots in the third round to get another 7th, that's not really working. I also think charts like that are great but teams are gripping onto 2nd round picks these days. I think it's very hard to get a 2nd from anybody.
Trying to get 6 players by the end of the 3rd probably takes a Danielle Hunter trade. I'm not sure how else that could happen unless you keep trading back and all the picks are in the 3rd
"What is one “realistic” move that Zimmer and Spielman could make (separately or together) that would make you feel like they truly learned their lesson from last year?
Great question. Signing Curtis Samuel."
I really like this answer. I'll be kind to the Vikings and broaden my response to the question. I'll interpret Zimmer/Spielman learning their lesson if they sign a guy like Samuel OR spend a high pick on a promising receiver in the draft. I can think of no other position that would tell me more than this team is going to start throwing the ball more than adding a quality WR3.
Of course, it would certainly not be out of character for Zim to get a quality 3rd receiver and then spend 90% of the upcoming season in two receiver sets while that 3rd receiver languishes on the bench.
The only thing about that is.. this system can be run with 3WR, McVay does it. So did they run 2TE because of talent or did they want it that way? The No 3 and 4 WRs were more like replacement level. I also think teams focus heavy on top WRs on third down, need another dynamic option there badly. But will they learn?
I’m pretty in sync with you on my pie chart question. I’d give it 10% for top 5 pick, and 10% for Super Bowl contenders. Then 40% for both a “meh” season and one and done in the playoffs. And agreed that it could change weekly during the off-season. The draft/free agency can change the % of a meh season/one and done but can’t see much happening to change the 10% for a top 5 pick and Super Bowl contenders.
It definitely makes it harder for the Vikings to make any big splashes. If the cap had gone up like normal they actually could have gone big game hunting in free agency but now it would take quite a bit of work to make that happen
Your comment on the hockey glove dropping analogy is interesting. Most of us think of defensive front seven personalities as being the feared War Daddies on the team, not the OL. I guess the Conrad Doblers and Larry "Choo Choo" Allens are still out there...
Matthew,
Regarding cliches to describe prospects I love when an o-lineman is described as great in the "phone booth" which usually means "not a good fit for the Vikings running scheme." Also, I think you might have meant "road grader" not "road grater."
On trading back to pick up a second I think you're too pessimistic based on the trade value charts. FanSpeak uses Rich Hill's chart as far as I know, and that says the Vikings 14th pick is worth 325 points so trading back to say Cleveland at 26 (223 points) and 59 (91 points) comes out pretty close at 325 to 314 points. I know the points themselves don't make it so, there's got to be a player there that someone wants enough to move up to get, but you listed a couple with Pitts and Surtain. Maybe Alabama WRs Smith and Waddle are there and someone's hungry enough to move up for them.
Last, you and Courtney talk about fans wanting to move back, but then complaining about all the late round picks. As one of those fans I can say it's not mutually exclusive. We would like Rick to move back in the first to get more Day 2 second and third rounders, not to keep piling up an endless supply of Day 3 picks that usually amount to nothing. I would like him to get five or even six shots in the Top 100, meaning through the third round. I hope this year he's feeling on the hot seat enough to do more of that. One could also argue they had to redshirt a ton of their 15 rookies from last year so no reason to load up on late rounders again this year; they've got enough work to do with all those young players from the last draft without adding a dozen more. One draft scenario I'd ask you to try is get 6 players by the end of the third and see what you come up with.
my apologies on the spelling of road grader haha.
I'll clarify the point... if you're moving back to pick up 3rd and 4ths or future good picks, that's great. If you're moving back 15 spots in the third round to get another 7th, that's not really working. I also think charts like that are great but teams are gripping onto 2nd round picks these days. I think it's very hard to get a 2nd from anybody.
Trying to get 6 players by the end of the 3rd probably takes a Danielle Hunter trade. I'm not sure how else that could happen unless you keep trading back and all the picks are in the 3rd
"What is one “realistic” move that Zimmer and Spielman could make (separately or together) that would make you feel like they truly learned their lesson from last year?
Great question. Signing Curtis Samuel."
I really like this answer. I'll be kind to the Vikings and broaden my response to the question. I'll interpret Zimmer/Spielman learning their lesson if they sign a guy like Samuel OR spend a high pick on a promising receiver in the draft. I can think of no other position that would tell me more than this team is going to start throwing the ball more than adding a quality WR3.
Of course, it would certainly not be out of character for Zim to get a quality 3rd receiver and then spend 90% of the upcoming season in two receiver sets while that 3rd receiver languishes on the bench.
The only thing about that is.. this system can be run with 3WR, McVay does it. So did they run 2TE because of talent or did they want it that way? The No 3 and 4 WRs were more like replacement level. I also think teams focus heavy on top WRs on third down, need another dynamic option there badly. But will they learn?
"But will they learn?"
You just had a to ruin a great comment by ending it with that reality-based question, Matthew.
Haha typical
I’m pretty in sync with you on my pie chart question. I’d give it 10% for top 5 pick, and 10% for Super Bowl contenders. Then 40% for both a “meh” season and one and done in the playoffs. And agreed that it could change weekly during the off-season. The draft/free agency can change the % of a meh season/one and done but can’t see much happening to change the 10% for a top 5 pick and Super Bowl contenders.
With the salary cap dropping this year, how do you see this affecting the Vikings vs other teams (especially given our chronic cap issues) ??
It definitely makes it harder for the Vikings to make any big splashes. If the cap had gone up like normal they actually could have gone big game hunting in free agency but now it would take quite a bit of work to make that happen
Stafford also played with some dude named Calvin Johnson for 7 years...
Your comment on the hockey glove dropping analogy is interesting. Most of us think of defensive front seven personalities as being the feared War Daddies on the team, not the OL. I guess the Conrad Doblers and Larry "Choo Choo" Allens are still out there...