Friday mailbag: Watson scenarios, future OC and draft cliches

Vikings fans really want a trade that might work for DeShaun Watson

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Hello everyone, happy Friday. We’ve got lots to discuss, from coaching changes to the big-picture future to DeShaun Watson rumors so let’s get right into it…

@_2244 Vikes have zero shot at Watson, no? That team has smashed enough of my hopes & dreams. Just trying to proactively manage expectations here. Thank you!

I’ll answer this one with a pie chart…

So you might be thinking, “welp, no reason to think about it then…” and that’s probably where you should be mentally because there’s only so much disappointment that anyone has room for in their soul but I’ll always leave the door open for something crazy like this to happen.

They would have to either convince the Texans that Cousins is what they need (insert Idiocracy, “it’s what plants need” reference here) or trade Cousins in order to stack up enough draft capital to even make things interesting.

But there’s even more hurdles after that. Unless Watson is desperate to come to Minnesota, which, since he doesn’t have a beef with the Packers a la Favre seems unlikely, there isn’t a great chance he agrees to be traded to the Vikings. Then there’s the fact that other teams can offer Houston young QBs in return like Sam Darnold or Tua Tagovailoa and they have more draft ammo (both have two first-round picks).

Bill Barnwell of ESPN gave it a shot. Here was his three-way trade:

Vikings send: 14th and 90th overall picks in 2021, 2022 first-round pick, 2023 first-round pick (to Texans), QB Kirk Cousins (to Patriots)
Texans send: 2023 fourth-round pick, QB Deshaun Watson (to Vikings)
Patriots send: 2022 fifth-round pick, 2023 fifth-round pick, QB Jarrett Stidham (to Texans)

Creative! The issue is: If the Vikings are giving three first-round picks and the top one is 14th and the Jets are giving three and their top selection is No. 2 overall and Miami’s is No. 3, why would they send him here?

I’m trying guys. It’s really hard to find any realistic scenario.

@Scott_Roberts25 If the Vikings move on from Zimmer after this year how in the HELL are both Daboll and Bienemy actually available options after what they accomplished this year? And assuming they replicate or improve next year who would you choose as the next head coach?

I’ve gotten this question on twitter periodically as teams hire literally everyone except Eric Bieniemy (could you say they’re sleeping with Bieniemy, trademark Chris Berman) and I never know exactly how to answer. Think about where we were last year at this time. We didn’t know Tom Brady would play for the Bucs or that Kevin Stefanski would turn around the Browns and we couldn’t have dreamed we’d be talking about DeShaun Watson. I had never heard of Brandon Staley a year ago. Who knows where we’ll be in a year. I don’t even know how the NFL will look in three weeks with all the crazy movement.

What I mean is: If the Vikings went 11-5 next year, would it shock anyone? Mike Zimmer has always had good years following his down seasons, so I’m not ready to start coach searching assuming he’s going 7-9 and getting fired in 2021.

However, one thing I can say is that teams almost always go the exact opposite direction with new hires of their previous coach. The Chargers got a defensive guru after an offensive-minded coach, the Lions went with that Chris Farley character that jumps through the table rather than an uptight bully. It just works that way. So, yes, the odds of the next Vikings coach (whenever that might be) being an offensive guru seem pretty high.

@vikingsjazzfan Why is Eric Bieniemy not a head coach?

I’ve been told by a few people that some teams are concerned if they hire him that some things from his past at Colorado might be problematic. That is pretty far back though so it might just be more along the lines of an excuse.

I believe former NFL’er Darius Butler when he says that owners want a coach they can play golf with. This doesn’t *always* have to mean race is the main factor (though it can be). Think about Thibs and the Wolves. After Thibs got canned, it came out that one of the reasons he was let go was because he wouldn’t attend some dinner that Glen Taylor had every year.

Mike Zimmer ran into this same issue. He’s not a guy you play golf with. He’s a football guy and nothing else. When he hunts, he’s grinding tape. That’s not even a joke. That might be the case with Eric Bieniemy.

@alexjjlarsen Looking to the draft, which 3 players (who might realistically slide) are too talented to pass up at No. 14, regardless of need?

So if we’re talking purely realistic — meaning not Zach Wilson/Justin Fields/Ja’Marr Chase/Penei Sewell — I’d say that Kyle Pitts, Patrick Surtain II and Trey Lance are the three.

Starting with Pitts, I realize they have Irv Smith Jr. but the Patriots had Aaron Hernandez and Gronk at one point and were unstoppable. Get great playmakers and figure out how to use them. Pitts is an unbelievable talent.

People would lose their minds if the Vikings picked a cornerback but landing a great corner is like finding gold. Think about how Xavier Rhodes changed the formula entirely when he was at his best and opponents couldn’t throw to Julio Jones and Mike Evans when they played the Vikings. Plus it’s a super weak corner draft outside of the top two or three. And is anyone sold entirely on Gladney/Dantzler?

Trey Lance is an obvious one. Perfect QB who could sit for a year. High ceiling, great athletic profile, needs a ton of development to make the jump from FCS to NFL.

@RandyBo18392786 Why is Staffords reputation so much better than Kirks when most numbers point to Kirk being better?

Two things: Stafford’s arm talent, the Lions.

Awhile back, I compared their offensive supporting casts and found them to be pretty similar but the Lions have been such an unbelievably bad organization for so many years that it’s assumed they’ve made him worse. I don’t see it. Jim Caldwell is a great offensive coach and they gave him weapons (Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay).

I don’t see it as a Watson/Texans situation where the guy was carrying a franchise with absolutely nothing to work with.

Stafford’s arm is just way better than Cousins’s arm so the highlight reel throws are legitimately amazing. He takes a ton of sacks, throws INTs and is inconsistent with his accuracy but think of how often the public actually sees Stafford play. Thanksgiving? Hardly ever in prime time. They see highlights and big plays. The Vikings have had a lot of less-than-stellar showings recently on national TV so I think that shapes perception.

@NorthStarsNHL They hired McCardell as WR coach. What are your predictions for the other open coaching spots?

Since there’s been no buzz whatsoever about potential candidates, it seems like Klint Kubiak is going to be the guy. Hiring a receivers coach without technically knowing who the OC is yet also points that way.

My pal Sage Rosenfels has had a little experience with Klint and said he’s a guy without a big ego who he thinks would be a good hire. I know there will be the “but nepotism!” people but that didn’t stop a lot of other coaches from being very good at what they do, so we’ll see if that changes.

@GlennCharleswo1 Ficken! Really?

I mean, look, I’m not going to pretend that I have any idea whether Ryan Ficken can be a good special teams coach. The guy’s been doing it for eight years as an assistant, so it’s pretty likely he knows how to do the job. But anybody who pretends to know whether it’s a “good hire” is making it up.

Same goes for any position coach hire, to tell you the truth. The success of a position coach usually has to do with the relationships they are able to build with players. If they can connect with guys and work in the right ways with their strengths and weaknesses and deal with the day-to-day things they encounter, they’ve got a chance.

But there’s so many things they bring behind the scenes. They assist with scouting, they help with gameplans, they do studies and handle player usage on gameday. I usually get a feel for how it’s going by talking to people while someone is employed. But when they’re first hired, it’s anybody’s guess.

@Scott_Roberts25 What’s your top 3 “draft speak” traits (example being hips being oily or quick twitch) you’ve heard for players during draft seasons past? Also on average how many new ones get created each year?

Oh man, draft cliches are the best and I’ve heard them all. “Road grater” is a personal favorite. When a defensive player has “bend.” Maybe “body catcher?” That one sounds like a horror movie. Or how about a “glass eater.” I once worked that into a draft day conference call question.

I’m not sure how many get created per year but my favorite part is when they talk around the player’s weaknesses. If he had a bad Combine, it was a fluke for some reason or he “plays faster than his Combine results.” If he’s undersized SO WAS JOHN RANDLE. If he is a project, ohhhh he’s got a ton of upside!

And then maybe one or two guys from the draft end up doing anything.

@benjackson0812 Do you think the Wilfs are good owners? They don’t give weekly sound bites to the media like Jerry Jones ( which is a good thing) but I also feel like they are too loyal at times.

Yes, they’re good owners. You have a new stadium, ridiculous team facility, a team that spends to the salary cap each year, keeps good players, pays whatever coaches are needed and (mostly) are not forcing the coach/GM to bend to their every whim. They’re not saying things in public to alienate players or running players out of town i.e. the McNairs in Houston. They’re not chasing their tail constantly by hiring and firing coaches and GMs every other year like the Browns did for a long time.

All those things are good. They seem to want to be like Pittsburgh or New England, teams that have stability and long-term success.

That doesn’t mean they’ve done everything right recently, of course. Maybe they shouldn’t have expected 2018-2019 to recreate 2017. Maybe they shouldn’t have believed this year’s team would be in the playoffs. Maybe letting Zimmer’s contract run out would have been the better play. In hindsight, it might seem so but when you look at other coaching hires that go bust, you can see why they’d want to stick with someone who’s had success before.

Anyway, there’s always reasonable criticisms. But wow you can do so much worse than these owners.

@grant_schwieger how about a pie chart for how you think the Vikings 2021 season goes? % chance they finish as 1. Super Bowl contenders 2. one and done in playoffs 3. 6-10 or 7-9 “meh” range similar to this year or 4. drafting top 5

Alrighty…

This pie chart can certainly be adjusted (maybe even week to week) during the offseason but right now I tend to lean toward them adding on the defensive side enough to be a competitive team and make the postseason — which is now pretty easy with seven teams getting in. But can they fill enough spots to compete for a Super Bowl? That’s hard to see without something pretty aggressive.

@Blazen1978 Is it a stretch to claim, that the success of the new OC - regardless of who it will be - highly depends on Zim’s willingness to adapt the „run less pass more „ approach”?

Yes. One of the toughest parts of the discussion about the offensive coordinator is the fact that person has to run the offense the way Zimmer wants. Kevin Stefanski seemed to do a good job of walking the tight rope between playing a fairly modern offense and keeping Zimmer happy with the running game. And it’s not just the running part of it — it’s also the fact that it will probably not stay a secret if he isn’t thrilled about how it’s going.

If Zimmer changes course and wants to push the “pass” button more, that’ll be what the offensive coordinator executes. Remember when Hue Jackson told Todd Haley on Hard Knocks that he’s the guy in charge and when Haley’s the head coach they’ll do things his way? Yeah, that’s how this might go.

@HokNate What do you think of the Ryan Ficken promotion and the signing of McCardell ?

I think Keenan McCardell was awesome as a player. Great route runner. Perfect compliment to Jimmy Smith. He was kind of the Adam Thielen to Stefon Diggs/Justin Jefferson. How awesome were those Jags teams? It’s a shame they didn’t make a Super Bowl. So I’m looking forward to trying to work Alvis Whitted references into questions when I get to talk with Keenan but aside from that, we’ll just have to see how it goes with both.

I mean this in all sincerity: I love that you guys want special teams coordinator takes.

@Blazen1978 A bit of „crystal ball” question - do You think Vikings are actively shopping out.

If they’re not listening when it comes to potential trades for either Danielle Hunter or veteran players like Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith, they’d be making a mistake. The last few years they seemed to be shopping guys like Trae Waynes and Kyle Rudolph in 2019 (I specially remember that being mentioned during the draft on NFL Network) and Anthony Harris last year but nothing came to fruition.

But this year is going to be so wild with teams creating cap space and making trades etc. that the chaos might open the door a little bit more to some opportunities.

I’d be surprised if we see any type of major sale though. The first option is probably for them to keep everything in place and build on it.

@DanielVroman2 I feel like the Vikings are in a franchise rut. 6-10 to 10-6, no real path towards much higher or lower in the near future. They'll be drafting Defensive linemen and secondary to fill needs. Do you see anything different on the horizon to provide a spark to this team?

I think they view this as a 2014 type season and believe they need to stay on course and fill spots in order to get back to the top of the NFC North like they did in 2015. You could also look at it like their 2013 season, which would mean another middling year is on the way.

Maybe the big “spark” moves like trading the QB or firing the coach aren’t on the table but even something like adding another playmaker on offense or landing a big offensive line signing or hiring an offensive coordinator we never saw coming who’s going to tweak the philosophy …. all those things might at least make this offseason intriguing.

It’s interesting that the roster has nearly been completely overhauled since even 2019 and yet the sentiment is that nothing really changes. Not that it’s wrong, it just speaks to what happens when you have an extended period of mediocrity with the same coach, QB and GM.

@Trustingcrows Release Mannion and replace with Minshew?

Galaxy Brain: Trade Cousins and replace him with Minshew.

Here’s a wild stat for you: In 2019, the top three QBs in terms of rating on passes traveling farther than 20 yards through the air were Gardner Minshew, Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins.

Not that I think Minshew is better than Cousins. But could he run the offense that Zimmer wants to run with a fair amount of success with Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen and cost way, way less? Probably.

As far as him as a backup, yeah, why not.

@youvikethat1 Random question: I work in the mental health field. Do the Vikings or other NFL teams have mental health therapists, nurses, or psychiatrists on staff?

They don’t have them on staff but I believe many teams have contracts with a company on the mental health/sports phycology side. I’ve never asked if the Vikings have something like that but I’d assume there’s someone they work with in that area. I do think there’s a growing understanding in pro sports of the importance of athletes’ mental health and how that impacts performance (and the players’ lives in general), though they probably have a ways to go still.

@BIG_dannn With the Vikings promoting within for STC, & most likely for OC, this for me wouldn’t excite me from an ownership perspective. With two of the great OC looking for HC job in 22’ do think ownership has already decided to moving on or does another playoff appearance save him

I can’t remember anyone ever getting excited by a special teams coach hire but from the offensive coordinator angle, if it ends up being Klint Kubiak, that isn’t going to cause a spike in season ticket sales either. That doesn’t mean it will be a bad hire. It’s just that any offensive coordinator they hire only has so much control of which direction this bus travels.

I don’t think ownership has already made that decision. It’s clear they were on the fence back at the end of 2019 and I’m certain they are frustrated by this year’s results. But if they’ve already made that call, they should have made a big change at the end of the year and ate the contract (or traded Zimmer). My guess is that this year is similar to 2019 in the edict to make the playoffs and have a good showing or that’s that.

@RalphVixCPA If Rick gave up draft choices, how would he move out of 1st round then back in to it, then trade back out, and have all 32 7th round draft picks?

When I appreciate this sense of humor the most, Ralph, is on Day 3 of the draft when I’m on 11 different conference calls with mostly players I’ve never heard of before. You’d think the longest day of the year covering the team would be a playoff game or opening day of camp. Nope. Day 3 of the draft and it’s not close.

@vikesfan1930 If you have gone back from the future. The Vikings have won the SB Who would be the QB? HC? And what team they beat and a score ?

I assume you mean like the scenario I laid out on the podcast where I went to the future and found the Vikings in next year’s NFC Championship game but didn’t know how they got there…

So this question boils down to when they will make it…Because they’re the Vikings, I’ll say they make the Super Bowl in the year 2029 with Mitch Trubisky having his late-career Rich Gannon surge and Kevin Stefanski has come back as the head coach.

They always have one shot a decade, you just never know when or how it’s going to happen.

@bobh332 Probably already discussed but why did they just cut Pat Elflein. He had to better than the alternatives.

On the surface there’s no reason to lose sleep over Elflein. Three straight years of backup-level play pretty much means that’s what he is. However, it’s another instance of a player being treated in a way that’s pretty questionable. First Riley Reiff, a beloved guy by teammates, is forced to take a pay cut for a player they didn’t even keep, then Elflein is cut despite playing through injury in 2018 and taking on a new position in 2019 only to be moved again in 2020 and given no chance for continuity to really master the job.

Yes, it’s a business and these fellas are highly paid but there have been enough instances of players being made to really feel the business side by this team recently that there isn’t anywhere close to the goodwill they had just a few years ago.

@Jeff_M_Mastro Would I be wrong to assume that the Vikings are going to package up three 1st rounders, Kirk, and whatever else the Texan's want for Watson?

They’ve gotta check with the Texans to see if they have a chance. If you remember, before signing Cousins they called on Drew Brees. Last year I recall hearing someone say they were going to see about Tom Brady’s plans before he went to Tampa Bay.

You’d be wrong to assume they would be in the mix for a possible destination, you’d be right to assume they’ll make phone calls.

@andrew_schuba Which Viking deserves the official neckroll of 2020?

Well, the answer is always CJ Ham because… come on. Any fullback taking that many reps in 2020 needs a neckroll. I’d also go with Ezra Cleveland for playing with an injured ankle against Chicago. Eric Kendricks for his overall terrific play. You get a neckroll just by being a great linebacker. I’ll give one to Tyler Conklin too. If you emerge as the No. 3 tight end to make a difference in the offense, well sir, you got yourself a neckroll.

@benjackson0812 What’s the most mind blowing thing a coach has ever said to you at press conferences??

I once asked a hockey team what he said to the team after a bad loss. He responded, “what would you say?” And I said, “I’d probably use a lot of swear words.” Luckily all I got was an eyeroll from that.

I made a crack to Zimmer about never punting on video games and he said that he didn’t play video games “like Game of Thrones.” So I guess he’s not really dialed into the video game scene.

There’s a bunch of Zimmer moments of extreme honesty… I didn’t ask the question but when he said, “did you see the game?” when he was asked about cutting Daniel Carlson.

@DrewSikkink how high above zero is the percentage chance the Vikings make an aggressive offer that gives them a chance in a Deshaun Watson trade?

No matter the aggressiveness, there’s always going to be a more desperate team that can make a more aggressive play for Watson. I’d go with about a 20% chance they could make an offer that gets them a returned phone call from the Texans and 10% chance their offer would made it into the final five suitors and 2% that they could find a way to convince Watson (who has a no-trade clause) that he wants to join a team where the former star receiver and current tight end recently went off about the team not throwing the ball.

@ramseykincannon What is one “realistic” move that Zimmer and Spielman could make (separately or together) that would make you feel like they truly learned their lesson from last year?

Great question. Signing Curtis Samuel.

He’s a great playmaker, probably won’t be insanely expensive and would give the indication that they were going to use more three-receiver sets with Rudolph likely gone and try to find ways to get players involved who are great with the ball in their hands.

Otherwise, signing a veteran corner. Trusting Mike Hughes, Holton Hill and two rookies was a pretty darn big miscalculation with numerous veterans on the market. This time around, making sure they find a Terence Newman type would be wise.

@PalpatinesRobes Does the apparent hiring of Keenan McCardell mean that Klint Kuibiak is going to be the new OC and Janocko the new qb coach?

I think that’s the right read of the room. Janocko has been doing the Stefanski thing of working his way through the ranks as a coach they really like and he’s a former QB. Kubiak has spent years proving himself as a QB coach and will maintain the system (which I believe is a good idea as long as it’s tweaked to lean more on Justin Jefferson early in games).

@rk2022 Your thoughts on teams acquiring DeShaun Watson is it worth giving up 2-3 years of draft capital

Yes. Easily yes. When Watson had DeAndre Hopkins and a decent defense, the guy won 11 games as a 23-year-old and 10 games the next year when their defense dropped to 19th. It’s darn helpful to have first-round picks but Watson/Jefferson instantly makes you a contender and a destination for free agents.

Winning the Super Bowl with him would still require hitting on draft picks, as it does for everyone (even Mahomes and Brady) but Watson sets the ceiling so much higher.

@alstrain One player from 2009 can come in that year’s form to the 2021 Vikings: Antoine Winfield Jared Allen Kevin Williams Steve Hutchinson Percy Harvin Who do you add?

That’s tough (and proof it wasn’t all Favre that year). If I can only get one, I’m taking Harvin if he’s healthy. The list of players more dynamic with the ball in their hands than Percy Harvin are Barry Sanders and ?????

The defense can get up to average with some decent players. The left guard position just needs someone who can competently pass block. But you don’t just find Percy Harvin’s laying around. He’d be like Tyreek Hill.

Second pick is Kevin Williams. Interior rush is causing all sorts of havoc for offenses these days.

@bobh332 Could we talk Larry Fitzgerald into one more year in purple??

It’ll always be Vikings fans’ dream, won’t it? Would you come back to this weather after spending falls and winters in Arizona? It seems very important to him to play his entire career in one jersey and that’s commendable.

@MCBoneGuy So you've been covering this team for a few years and Zimmer/Spielman have been guiding this team for a while. It feels in Vikings twitter that there's this dreadful 'we already know how this will play out' (draft a DB high, 4th round G & DE, 7th round KR) & finish near .500

There’s an inevitability to this team, isn’t there.

I think the reason for that feeling is that there’s too many holes to fill using the same process as they did to build the 2017 team. They can’t hope a third-round defensive end becomes a superstar or fifth-round receiver is unstoppable or fill the guard position with two guys like Nick Easton and Joe Berger. Everything clicked that time but everything had to fall into place for that to happen.

The most interesting thing about this offseason is whether they recognize that and change course.

@MCBoneGuy What's one realistic move/decision that could happen this offseason that would honestly surprise you? Draft a QB high? Fire someone? Big free-agent signing?

We’re kind of past the “fire someone” stage. Anything to do with the quarterback would honestly surprise me. Trade or draft would take me off guard. I’d also go with any staple player outside of Rudolph or Reiff leaving. The Hunter scenarios make so much sense but it’s hard to see Hunter not being a Viking. Same goes for Harrison Smith/Adam Thielen etc.

@SrEconomy I see multiple chances for Spielman to trade back multiple times to get a late 1st, maybe 2 2nds. Your thoughts?

Hard to pick up a second-round pick by moving back. That’s more like a third or fourth or a next year’s something. Trading back is a good value play though. If the Vikings found their way to another third or fourth, they could get back up into the back half of the second and probably still be able to take the edge rusher they want or a very good player in the first round.

@Jeffcn16 Would you take a flyer on Aldon Smith?

It does seem like he’s got things turned around. The price tag matters but so long as Dallas had a positive experience with him last year, yes. They probably need to find someone to spell whoever gets drafted at that position.

@BlaineFrom Do you think there is a realistic chance that mike zimmer takes a page out of his mentor bill parcels book, and adapts with the times? Does he actually let the offense let kirk cook? Percentage we take offense or defense in first round? Percentage we trade to get a 2nd?

I don’t think there’s a high chance of Zimmer changing his offensive philosophy, no. The difference between Parcells in 1994 and Zimmer now is that Zimmer is very concerned about Cousins’s turnovers and he has Dalvin Cook. The Patriots had the No. 1 overall pick in Drew Bledsoe (who rarely got sacked, by the way) and they were gonna make the most of that pick. And they sure didn’t have a Dalvin Cook.

I’ll go 75% chance they pick defense in the first round and 50% they can get a second-round pick somehow.

@NSwalve R vikes better off to just play out kirks contract & then build team and then go get a QB when they are ready to contend?

Yes. The smartest plan going forward is probably to draft a QB this year or next, let them sit and turn things over to them when Cousins’s contract is up. The roster will be fully matured at that point with a lot of draft picks in their primes or still coming up and the next QB can drop into a good situation.

@Brian_0008 If the Vikings were a hockey team, who would be the guy on the team who drops the gloves as the game starts?

Now that Everson Griffen is gone, it’s Riley Reiff. He’s a tough dude.

@JPageme77 If you were Texans GM. And Watson forced a trade., which team would you trade him to, this upcoming season?

I’d try to get him out of the AFC if somehow the offers came anywhere near what the Jets/Dolphins can give them.

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