Nearly two thirds of the current mock draft picks are concentrated on three positions; Edge, Offensive Tackle and Wide Receiver. These three positions are relatively strong for the Vikings, therefore the team should have a lot of flexibility in their early picks to fuel critical needs in rounds one and two.
I do think it’s entirely possible for JJ to sit next year, maybe start a game or two as needed, and come back in 2027 resembling a capable starter. Is it the most likely scenario? Absolutely not. If you’re doing an old vet this year and drafting a guy next year, though, it wouldn’t be crazy to see them trot JJ out there again because they don’t want the rookie starting week 1.
It's more likely than winning the next powerball, and someone is going to do that. There is no reason to cut/trade JJMC; the cost in sunk.
Tying it back to the point about the griddy and ignoring coaching, it's also really strange for a guy who has been a failure to publicly announce an alternate persona for himself. Normally nicknames are given, not self-declared. When Kobe created Black Mamba, he was already an all-time NBA player with three rings. Kobe didn't do it when he was air-balling 3s and getting swept in the playoffs, despite having Shaq on his team. What makes it worse is that JJMC has been taught this stuff since he was at IMG--that's part of what they sell. Major NCAA programs and agents do media prep, too. Horses to water, and all that.
Maybe that's the best-though-unlikely-case: JJMC looks in the mirror and grows the eff up. Well, that and he doesn't shatter a clavicle diving on a fumble.
I wouldn’t use powerball odds as a comparison, but yeah, it’s not 0, and is probably higher than any other QB2 option out there. Unless he is part of a trade for a guy who has a better chance to be a franchise QB, and I don’t think Richardson is that guy, you just need to keep him around and hope the extra year of experience pays off.
Framed as an equation, his chances of becoming a good starter is: four unrelated injuries in 10 games + highly suspect make-up + historically damning in-game performances = what, a 1/10,000 chance?
Fair enough, that's a better chance than just "more likely than winning the next powerball." But, the only reason to keep him now is that his salary is guaranteed for the next two years.
I don’t know what the number is, but it’s higher than 1/10k, man. The entire list of people who have played QB in the NFL is probably less than 1k. Whatever it is, it’s high enough to keep him around and not be entirely crazy to think he could be a capable starter after another year of experience, whether that’s on the bench or starting some games. So, it’s probably somewhere between like 1/20 and 1/5. You don’t plan your future around a 5-20% shot at something, but we’re talking a roll of the dice here, not guessing a random lake in MN.
We're diving into the rabbit hole now, but what the heck, it's the offseason.
First, the premise: my point wasn't that JJMC won't be able to hang around for a while collecting NFL cheques. The point is how unlikely it is that he becomes a "good starter." Let's say that means someone who is generally considered to be good enough to compete for SBs. Because, who cares if someone's ceiling is Josh McCown with 10 teams over 16 years (plus a mid-career UFL stint)?
From a probabilities perspective, let's say:
1. There is a 1/100 chance that someone who has these make-up issues evolves into a good starter. And that may be generous. Google AI citing CBS says between 2000-2019, 91 different QBs have become their team's full time starter. So if we add 2020-2025, we're well over 100. Exactly none of the others announced their own nickname despite zero success, and otherwise acknowledged multiple instances of disregarding their coach.
2. There is a 1/100 chance that someone who has missed games with four different and unrelated injuries, despite not even playing a full season, evolves into a good starter (a condition of which is being available). Again, we're dealing with an extreme outlier, if not something that's actually unique. I can't prove a negative, but I'm not aware of any other QB who has come remotely close to this. 1/100 may be too low.
3. Then we have the performance. It was really, really bad. PI has provided comparators at various times this year, and they were bleak--and raw numbers don't factor that Justin effin' Jefferson is out there, and he makes every other QB that throws him passes look like a star. To get from this performance to a good starter, maybe 1/100 is a little high, but JJMC has been really bad. Josh Rosen was the 10th overall pick, he made 16 starts over 3 years and was OOF.
The thing with JJMC is it's not just one big problem, it's three distinct ones that all have to be overcome. The math: there is a 1 in a million chance of having three 1/100 chances all come through. If they are just 1/10, that’s still 1:1000.
Nearly two thirds of the current mock draft picks are concentrated on three positions; Edge, Offensive Tackle and Wide Receiver. These three positions are relatively strong for the Vikings, therefore the team should have a lot of flexibility in their early picks to fuel critical needs in rounds one and two.
I do think it’s entirely possible for JJ to sit next year, maybe start a game or two as needed, and come back in 2027 resembling a capable starter. Is it the most likely scenario? Absolutely not. If you’re doing an old vet this year and drafting a guy next year, though, it wouldn’t be crazy to see them trot JJ out there again because they don’t want the rookie starting week 1.
It's more likely than winning the next powerball, and someone is going to do that. There is no reason to cut/trade JJMC; the cost in sunk.
Tying it back to the point about the griddy and ignoring coaching, it's also really strange for a guy who has been a failure to publicly announce an alternate persona for himself. Normally nicknames are given, not self-declared. When Kobe created Black Mamba, he was already an all-time NBA player with three rings. Kobe didn't do it when he was air-balling 3s and getting swept in the playoffs, despite having Shaq on his team. What makes it worse is that JJMC has been taught this stuff since he was at IMG--that's part of what they sell. Major NCAA programs and agents do media prep, too. Horses to water, and all that.
Maybe that's the best-though-unlikely-case: JJMC looks in the mirror and grows the eff up. Well, that and he doesn't shatter a clavicle diving on a fumble.
I wouldn’t use powerball odds as a comparison, but yeah, it’s not 0, and is probably higher than any other QB2 option out there. Unless he is part of a trade for a guy who has a better chance to be a franchise QB, and I don’t think Richardson is that guy, you just need to keep him around and hope the extra year of experience pays off.
Framed as an equation, his chances of becoming a good starter is: four unrelated injuries in 10 games + highly suspect make-up + historically damning in-game performances = what, a 1/10,000 chance?
Fair enough, that's a better chance than just "more likely than winning the next powerball." But, the only reason to keep him now is that his salary is guaranteed for the next two years.
I don’t know what the number is, but it’s higher than 1/10k, man. The entire list of people who have played QB in the NFL is probably less than 1k. Whatever it is, it’s high enough to keep him around and not be entirely crazy to think he could be a capable starter after another year of experience, whether that’s on the bench or starting some games. So, it’s probably somewhere between like 1/20 and 1/5. You don’t plan your future around a 5-20% shot at something, but we’re talking a roll of the dice here, not guessing a random lake in MN.
We're diving into the rabbit hole now, but what the heck, it's the offseason.
First, the premise: my point wasn't that JJMC won't be able to hang around for a while collecting NFL cheques. The point is how unlikely it is that he becomes a "good starter." Let's say that means someone who is generally considered to be good enough to compete for SBs. Because, who cares if someone's ceiling is Josh McCown with 10 teams over 16 years (plus a mid-career UFL stint)?
From a probabilities perspective, let's say:
1. There is a 1/100 chance that someone who has these make-up issues evolves into a good starter. And that may be generous. Google AI citing CBS says between 2000-2019, 91 different QBs have become their team's full time starter. So if we add 2020-2025, we're well over 100. Exactly none of the others announced their own nickname despite zero success, and otherwise acknowledged multiple instances of disregarding their coach.
2. There is a 1/100 chance that someone who has missed games with four different and unrelated injuries, despite not even playing a full season, evolves into a good starter (a condition of which is being available). Again, we're dealing with an extreme outlier, if not something that's actually unique. I can't prove a negative, but I'm not aware of any other QB who has come remotely close to this. 1/100 may be too low.
3. Then we have the performance. It was really, really bad. PI has provided comparators at various times this year, and they were bleak--and raw numbers don't factor that Justin effin' Jefferson is out there, and he makes every other QB that throws him passes look like a star. To get from this performance to a good starter, maybe 1/100 is a little high, but JJMC has been really bad. Josh Rosen was the 10th overall pick, he made 16 starts over 3 years and was OOF.
The thing with JJMC is it's not just one big problem, it's three distinct ones that all have to be overcome. The math: there is a 1 in a million chance of having three 1/100 chances all come through. If they are just 1/10, that’s still 1:1000.
*math corrected