Friday Mailbag: Combine buzz, QB options
A week of conversation about the future has drawn plenty of intrigue from fans
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday… I’m back from the Combine and have plenty to discuss…
Arin J….Hi Matt, after reviewing responses to the OConnel and Rob Brizienski interview I have heard you say Vikings are most likely to get a starting QB. Others saying more likely JJ starts, cap constraints buckets. Have you heard differing opinions on the comments and most likely outcome?
I’m not sure how anyone could read those comments and think that the Vikings aren’t interested in starting quarterbacks. Especially since they had every opportunity to rule out getting someone who was a clear-cut starter three different times since Week 18 and never did it.
If they wanted McCarthy to be locked in as the starter, it would be the easiest thing in the world to say that they were looking for a high quality backup and that they have full belief in him.
Does that mean that they will certainly get Kyler Murray or Derek Carr? No. It could be a player who has proven starting experience but also would provide competition that JJ could potentially beat out.
Cap constraints shouldn’t be an issue here unless they wanted to sign Malik Willis. Any of the potential options is going to come relatively cheap. If Kyler signs, he’s probably looking at a Sam Darnold type contract from 2024. Nobody is making an enormous investment with him. I’m not sure exactly how the Derek Carr thing works but he has all the leverage there, otherwise he could just return and make them take a $36M hit. Geno Smith, if he’s cut, wouldn’t require huge dollars. Mac Jones would be a trade. I’m confused at who those folks think it’s going to be costly.
Brad Lindberg
Who else will be bidding for the services of Murray, Jones, etc? What are the odds of those other teams driving up the price for the top candidates to where we can’t afford them?
The main teams are the Browns, Dolphins, Cardinals, Jets, Steelers and possibly Falcons.
I really can’t see a scenario where bidding wars push the price up beyond where the Vikings can reach for any of those guys. We saw from Sam Darnold last year or Baker Mayfield before that even guys who have played well are not landing insane contracts. Nobody on that list is going to give up a first-round pick for Derek Carr or pay Geno Smith $40 million or something like that.
Plus, if you are one of these QBs, what’s the best-case scenario? Clearly playing well for one season with the Vikings and then hitting the open market, right?
And I’ll give you some Combine buzz here: I’ve heard that basically every available QB is interested in Minnesota.
Ben… Where would you rate KOC hot seat meter from 1-10?? with 1= “ chill man we are gonna give you some time to rebuild” and 10= “ you better start winning playoff games this year pal”
I think the owners probably have a great appreciation for the building that O’Connell runs. Once again they crushed the NFLPA survey and him and his staff got terrific grades. Players want to play for him, the locker room buys his message and he is an excellent public face of the franchise.
But the reality is that this ownership has not been particularly patient when it comes to missing the postseason. So I’m not exactly sure where to put it. Maybe a six? I don’t think there’s any other HC in the entire league that’s gone five years without a playoff win and is still kickin.
I’ll say this over and over: When you get a good coach, you do not fire them unless you really have to do it. The job is absolutely impossible and history seems to favor those who get a lot of bites at the apple.
They would have to think long and hard about the risk involved with a change. Coaches are just as random in terms of success as draft picks. How many hires would we consider successful on a yearly basis? Maybe 30%?
KOC has his flaws but when he’s had either Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold as his starter, he’s 31-11. That would be pretty tough to move on from, even if they botched letting Sam walk and have had trouble in certain areas (third-and-1!) throughout the years.
Jeffrey S…. Jordan Traylor, who is now the Vikings’ assistant offensive coordinator / assistant quarterbacks coach. Worked with Derek Carr in NO in 2023-24. Do you think this could be a big factor in deciding if the Vikings pursue Carr?
To follow up... Carr seems like the perfect bridge QB (assuming he is healthy) given he was pretty good, won`t cost a fortune and might be around here for 2 years (given his age).
I can’t say for sure whether it would be a big factor but the familiarity there might make a difference to him.
I talked to several people in Indy with at least some connection to Carr who all thought he’s doing the whole “I might unretire” thing for the Vikings.
It isn’t hard to see a guy who regularly threw for 4,000+ yards and posted multiple seasons as a top-12 PFF quarterback coming back to the NFL and playing with Justin Jefferson and having it work out really well as a bridge QB to whatever is next.
I also don’t think it’s insane to think that putting JJ McCarthy on a bit of a Jordan Love plan where he spends an entire year behind Carr could be the best possible thing for him. I’ve been very clear saying this on the podcast: McCarthy can have a career as an NFL starter but he needs time to be healthy and develop. Having Carr would thread that needle of bringing JJ along and winning in 2026 as well as you possibly could.
hagenbb… What could a trade for Derek Carr look like? Joe Flacco as a comp? Is there room to negotiate w the Saints for them to absorb more of his dead cap in exchange for higher draft pick in trade?
That’s a tough one to figure out. When players have been traded after they come out of retirement, the return has not been very much. Gronk, for example, was traded for a seventh-round pick when he went from New England to Tampa Bay.
I’m sure that New Orleans would like some relief on the $36 million dead cap space but it’s really hard to say how that would all come together. Your idea is probably barking up the right tree. A little bit more compensation for some cap relief.
But the Saints truly do not have much leverage here. If Carr wants to unretire and be traded, they pretty much have to work it out or he could make them eat that whole $36 million and take up a roster spot or just cut him. That’s nearly a Seinfeld plot.
BZMANTX… my personal opinion… at a minimum the veteran quarterback needs to be signed for two years if not, three. That way you’re not searching to replace McCarthy if he doesn’t work out on his fifth year. Draft another quarterback next year build up some CAPITAL this year using some of the trades.
Let’s say you, Sign CARR to three years, that lines up with JJ’s total possible time, and draft a quarterback next year in the first round. It’s the only logical chance to rebuild without having to go back to free agency over the next two years finding stop gaps.
Well, Carr already has a contract through 2026, I believe. They would be acquiring that contract, then they’d have to work out something else with him if they wanted to make it a multi-year solution.
The approach that makes the most sense to me would be: Acquire Carr and get everything out of the 2026 team that is in place, then see where JJ McCarthy stands after 2026. Did he take huge strides and impress everyone or look like the same QB behind the scenes? If they are not confident in him taking back over, then they could consider bringing Carr back or drafting a QB or both.
I’m not sure of any other way to do it if they want to have a veteran starting next season.
Matt D… Any position players or groups getting more buzz than you expected from people at the combine?
The two position groups that were getting talked about a lot were defensive tackles and safeties. It seems that this is an amazing safety class, which is pretty obvious from mock drafts that have three safeties in the first round. The DT class is a little bit tougher to pin down because you have some project type players like Caleb Banks, who is a physical freak with so-so production and some impressive run-stuffing types like Kayden McDonald from Ohio State but there aren’t the clear-cut superstar type DT prospects from years past. So somebody has to take either limited upside or a big risk.
The edge rusher and linebacker classes seem to be really strong. I’m a bit intrigued by the idea of a linebacker. Cashman isn’t ancient but does have an injury history and isn’t under contract after this year and Eric Wilson is a free agent (and is 31 years old).
The group with zero buzz whatsoever is running backs. There’s a lot of talk about where Jeremiah Love is going to go and then it’s total crickets.
Patrick G… if they are not totally out on JJ, but feel he needs to sit and develop as QB2 for 1-2 years, what options are there since the rookie contract clock is ticking? how much would his 5th year option be? would declining the 5th year option and instead extending him for something like 2-3 years@$20M/yr, but only have essentially slightly more than the 5th year option $$ guaranteed be a workable solution, so you still get some of the reduced price benefit with a relatively low cost out?
The contract situation does make it difficult to be patient but not impossible. Using the fifth-year option on a QB is projected right now to be like $23 million.
Let’s say that they bring in Derek Carr and McCarthy shows them a ton behind the scenes and plays 4 games that season and looks really good. Then they could just use the fifth-year option and go from there.
It would get more dicey if they didn’t use the fifth-year option and then he played in 2027 and was great. Then they’d be looking at extension talks with the franchise tag in their back pocket.
It’s absolutely a complicating factor.
Roger N… Who’s more likely to be on the Vikings roster at the start of the season? McCarthy or Brosmer?
Unless they are prepared to trade McCarthy, then him. Brosmer probably ends up on the practice squad if they end up acquiring someone like Anthony Richardson and a veteran starter.
jcphitman… Another show said the Vikings would be more more quiet at the beginning of free agency. The expectation was for them to be more active in the second and third wave of FA with a focus on fit for players within their system. What are your thoughts on this?
Second question: Talk me into why as fans we should be confident in the organization for the draft with only the GM leaving (I thought I read somewhere they brought in a retired advisor to help as well). Why should we feel the draft will go better when it’s mainly the same people before a new GM is hired?
I just wrote today about how Rob Brzezinski is acting as a “guard rail” for the decision makers so they are not going to go buck wild and mortgage the future. I’ve always felt that that second and third waves of free agency are usually where the best deals are anyway. So, yeah, I wouldn’t expect them to go crazy on Day 1 when all the huge contracts are handed out but it still might be a week where they add a decent number of players.
You should never be confident in any draft because drafting is mostly random and success is largely dictated by quality of draft capital. The retired advisor they brought in is Matt Thomas, a cap guy.
The only reason to be more excited about the draft this year than in past years is that they have more draft capital and might trade down to get even more.
It is mostly the same people but assuming that they don’t know what they’re doing because the team missed on some recent picks is also a bad idea. I’ll always go back to the same folks doing the 2015 and 2016 drafts. You really just have to hope it works out.
Andrew K…Thanks for continuing to dig in during this time when we Vikings fans can be blissfully optimistic about everything falling into place next season. Listened to your pod where you talked about them deciding on what positions they DON’T need to draft (vs. focusing in on a few immediate needs). Having a hard time identifying what those would be, though - it seems like there are so many positions in need (at least of back-ups/young players to develop). Here’s all I could come up with - O Tackles (assuming CD’s knee full recovery for next season looks good), fullback (if they’re going to stop using one with CJ retiring), Edge... What would you say?… also Punter? And what do you think about fullback (or is that late round so not that critical to de-prioritize?
I’m not sure I would describe the Vikings fan base presently as blissfully optimistic about everything falling into place but I totally agree with you on having a hard time crossing off positions that they do not need to draft.
I don’t believe you can pick an offensive tackle high in the draft after recently paying Darrisaw, even if there are concerns about his future health and O’Neill is on the back nine of his career. Edge is interesting though. Yes, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are great and Dallas Turner showed a lot of promise but the draft is deep with those guys and the prospect might just be way better than the others. As we’ve seen from Seattle and Philly, more pass rushers is better.
And I’m very big on drafting for two years out, not next season. AVG might not be here after 2026.
Otherwise, corner, safety, center, running back, receiver, defensive tackle, linebacker… it’s all on the table.
Maybe this is just me and my fullback bias: I think it’s a cheat code. If you have a good one, nobody on defense knows what to do with that guy. The LBs are smaller these days and DLs are built to rush the passer. Slam into their face and use the FB to stop the pass rush on third down (which is what CJ Ham did).
Florian K… Question on philosophy of “premium/non-premium” and positions of need. When Harrison Smith retires safety is a need in a non-premium position. Is it a mistake to take one at 18? Lewis Cine was a mistake but Kyle Hamilton sure wasn’t. Center is also not a premium yet is definitely a need. Can you walk through a little how you think those decisions are weighed out?
Premium usually comes down to which positions get paid the most in free agency. So if you’re drafting a safety, you’re only getting a surplus value of like $10 million over a really good free agent safety. If you hit on a wide receiver, it’s $30 million. Not to mention that good safeties are routinely available in free agency and wide receivers are not. Same goes for left tackles, quarterbacks, cornerbacks and mostly edge rushers.
You pick those guys before center/safety/RB/LB because you can always find those spots in the open market for decent prices.
That said, there is a bar that the player can reach that changes the math. If you draft Harrison Smith in 2012, you do not care at all that his positional value wasn’t great because he’s a Hall of Fame talent. Same with Derwin James or Kyle Hamilton or Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson or Frank Ragnow. Those guys have the talent to wear gold jackets, so you take your shot. The same idea will be applied to Sonny Styles. There is no finding another Sonny Styles in free agency.
So if the Vikings are going to pick Dillon Thieneman from Oregon, they better believe there’s greatness in there. That was my issue with the Cine draft pick more than the idea of trading down. I remember NFL.com comparing him to Adrian Amos. That’s just not worth a first-round pick.
Chad I… Been kicking this question around for a couple of weeks but since you referenced it at the end of last week’s Mailbag, I decided to ask. When McCarthy did the Griddy during the Cowboy game against KOC’s wishes what was your take? I know this isn’t high school or the Lombardi Era and professional athletes are wired differently than the rest of us, but he essentially spent the season woefully underperforming (and you have the stats to prove it) I would think a little sensibility would have been in order--and I realize in the NFL you can get away with a lot as long as you produce. In short, it seems incredibly foolish to go against the person who is trying harder than anyone to help him succeed. Is this just a momentary act of immaturity or do you think it speaks to a bigger flaw in his ability to lead the franchise? I know all public statements are extremely couched and one has to read through multiple lines, but do you have any sense of the non-public sentiment among players and staff?
Hey Chad, great to hear from you, my friend!
My take is that if the Griddy wasn’t emblematic of a bigger issue, then it would never have been mentioned by anyone. If you combine that with KOC’s comments about McCarthy coming back to the sideline and telling him things that they never talked about in the gameplan. It’s about KOC not being able to feel like he has any idea what McCarthy is going to do out there. Same goes for the absurd penalty against the Packers.
All of that stuff is immaturity. And I don’t mean that like he’s not a good person or he’s reckless, he just did things that you would not see from a veteran professional quarterback.
Taking coaching is a huge, huge, huge deal in the NFL. When KOC talked about not discussing throwing fundamentals anymore with JJ, it was praised by a lot of people but that was a pretty big red flag to me. He has to be able to use coaching points and improve. That may come with time.
Bill B… Two questions really, been searching for combine news and not seeing much, does it seem quieter than usual ?
Secondly, what would you think of trading most of our first, second and third round picks for next year?
I definitely think it’s been more quiet than usual. One reason is that the skill positions do not have a lot of debate surrounding them. There isn’t a QB conversation. The running back class is bad. There’s one TE worth taking in the first round. The wide receivers are pretty good but there isn’t a huge potential star. So much meh. Oftentimes there’s some sort of controversy or player that everyone fights over like Shedeur Sanders and that’s just not there.
And even when it comes to the offseason free agency buzz, a lot of the best teams in the NFL are lacking in major decisions. The cap going up constantly has made it easier for teams to keep their players, so there aren’t that major big free agents or tough spots that teams are in overall.
I’m totally out on the idea of trading draft capital for 2026 players. This franchise is not going to shut down after next season. They need to stockpile picks for the next roster build.
Dan… Your reporting on Rob Brzezinski makes me think. I find it remarkable that so many NFL teams consistently struggle this much to make future friendly decisions. It’s seemingly difficult for teams to even worry about being in decent shape for 2027, let along more than 2 years into the future, because of the hot seats and pressure and excitement around 2026.
All of the constant reactionary panic moves make the NFL more interesting for the fans, but it seems like that environment should create plenty of arbitrage for a franchise that manages to be more clear headed. I thought the Vikings were trying to be that way when they hired Kwesi, and it seemed to be going well at times, but mistakes were made. It’s amazing how fast the team went from “plenty of cap room” to “last in negative cap space.”
In the Vikings’ case, it seems like it will always be hard to take the long term view as long as they have owners who always insist on being competitive every year (as good as the Wilfs are overall) along with a good head coach who probably commands a lot of influence within the organization. They should be able to behave more rationally, but I can see why it’s hard. How can the Vikings get better at taking advantage of other teams’ panic moves instead of being the panicked team every year?
Good thoughts, Dan.
Here’s my thing with the Wilfs wanting to win every single year: It’s way better than having ownership that does not care about winning or is crazy. I legitimately think they believe that they would be doing a disservice to their fans by not putting the best product out there that they possibly can every single season. It’s really hard to hate on that.
We can definitely go back and clearly see the years where the full rebuild was right there in front of them and they wouldn’t let it happen i.e. 2020 and 2023. They are likely going to face something like this again in 2027 and this time around they might want to face reality.
That doesn’t have to mean a full tank. It just has to mean not giving Danielle Hunter another short-term contract adjustment to keep him around or not having one more year of a middling QB who doesn’t have the roster to win or spending draft capital for current players to fill needs i.e. Chris Herndon. Stockpile draft capital, get younger, focus on drafting a QB high, even if it takes a trade up.
Seattle did this when they moved on from Russell Wilson. Yes, they nailed a TON of picks but they also had a ton of picks from years of thinking about the bigger picture.
Adam B… One QB wrinkle I’ve not seen discussed is that pretty much all the QBs the Vikings have been linked with have recent histories of missing time with injury (Murray, Carr, Cousins, Rodger, even Willis in his 2 starts got crocked) and factoring in the amount of sacks KOC teams tend to give up, the chances are JJ will start some games next season even if he isn’t the day 1 starter seem pretty high. Do you think JJ could end the season as the preferred starter in this scenario, having developed behind the scenes and then showing improvement in games?
KOC has to look at every single sack since 2022 and ask: Why does this keep happening in this offense? It can’t be a coincidence when every QB has the same issue. That does lead to his QBs getting banged up at times, so maybe there’s a universe where McCarthy plays despite having some other starting QB.
The reality is, the minute he goes to the bench, the odds of it ever working out for him in Minnesota sink to less than 20% if not lower. I can’t think of many examples where someone lost a job in the offseason and then ended up bouncing back. I’m not going to close the door to anything but he would need to prove that a very big step had been taken in whatever starts he might be able to get his hands on.
Patrick G….Now that it looks like they are changing course to do what they should have done last year (have JJ get his true redshirt year as QB2 physically practicing, fixing his mechanics, and developing behind another QB), realistically how much did 2025 set the franchise back? it feels like a lot to me, given Darnold’s play with Seattle, how little development (or even regression) we saw from JJ, and the ticking clock of the rookie contract situation (they need to decide on the 5th year option next offseason).
They lost an entire year where they could have been a serious contender to play for a Super Bowl and put themselves in a situation where they don’t have much cap space and have to invest recourses into another QB with a roster that really has about one more year to play together before there is significant change so… I’d say they lost out on a lot by not having “baseline level” QB play in 2025. The Lions and Packers not being as strong as they once appeared added salt to that wound.
Now it’s 2026 to win with this core and then… back to the drawing board, even if they end up feeling good about JJ when the dust settles.
Tony T.. Why do all the “expert” mock drafters always chose a corner back for Minnesota? It seems like Flores’ defense doesn’t need a 1st round lock-down corner
I totally think Flores’ defense needs a lock-down corner. They can blitz their way to a weak secondary being OK but you can’t have a truly smothering defense without someone special at that position. Rodgers and Murphy Jr. are both good players but adding someone who can close down one side of the field would make this defense and scheme absolutely ridiculous, in the way that Belichick’s D was with Stephon Gilmore in his prime.
Also Rodgers is a free agent after this year.
That said, there’s a door open to a bunch of different positions.
Brent M…Hey Matthew, Two part question:
1) What is your confidence level that the Vikes can thread the needle this offseason (i.e., managing the cap, drafting and FA signings) to maintain a Super Bowl caliber team, assuming reasonable health and that they nail (or just get lucky with) their QB decision?
2) How about a pie chart on how they acquire a new QB? I assume drafting one is very low, but both FA and trades have some viable candidates.
My confidence that the Vikings can find someone else’s QB and turn the team into a contender is higher than it would be for any other franchise because they have done it so many times and Justin Jefferson is here. But making it “Super Bowl caliber,” that seems really hard. I’m not sure they can put a better group on the field than 2024 or last year (aside from QB). It’s going to take some really savvy moves.
Pie chart would be 48% trade (Carr), 50% free agent (if Murray or Geno are cut), 2% draft one.
Brent O… It seems like this has been one of the most negative off-seasons I’ve seen in Skol-land. Between the puzzling timing of Kwesi, the QB position struggles, and the falling short of expectations, it seems like everyone is down on the future state. Did the McCarthy season pull back the covers and we’re speed running the end of the Spielman/Zimmer acrimony, or do we have very talented key pieces, Flores’ defense, KOC’s culture and some reasons for optimism?
It feels very 2017-2018-2019-2020 in the way that 2024-2025 have gone and what’s likely to happen in 2026 and 2027.
When a team gets into a place where people are getting fired, cap space is being bumped all over and there aren’t many young players to grasp onto for the future, fans are sharp enough to know how that usually goes.
The only thing on the plus side is that there are things that are going to present themselves that will tell us where this train is headed long term in 2026. It’s the end of one road and then another one starts. That’s the best I can do.
Hunter S…Sometimes I feel very spoiled by the quality of beat writers for the Vikings. We get a lot of great analysis and stories about the team. If you have a general feel for the league, where do you think the Vikings beat writers as a group ranks relative to the rest of the league? Are there any other groups or specific writers out there that do great or unique stuff that deserve a shout?
That’s very nice of you, Hunter. The room is filled with great people who have been unbelievably supportive of me through the years.
I have no idea how to rank our beat. I’ve gotten to know so many writers around the NFL over the years and they are very similar to us. The main thing is: Local writers are overwhelmingly just folks who love football and want to give the best information to fans.
There’s tons of writers who do unique stuff. I’m not sure I could come up with a list but I’d suggest to folks that they should look up other versions of us and follow them because they need the support in a growing world of stealing/aggregation and brand building based on ridiculous takes.