Friday Mailbag: Back from the owner's meetings
With the brass talking, a new set of questions arises
By Matthew Coller
Happy Friday, friends. I’m back from the owner’s meetings to answer any/all questions so let’s dive in….
Paul… I was just a kid as he was winding down his career as a Viking, so I am genuinely asking: is there any similarity between Kyler Murray and Fran Tarkenton in playing style?
I would definitely say so. They are both undersized, both extremely creative and I wouldn’t say that either one had a howitzer for an arm. Kyler is certainly more of a pure runner and the NFL is a lot different now than it was back then when it comes to the athletes on defense but both QBs landed in rough spots to start their careers. The Arizona Cardinals are one of the worst organizations over the last 15 years and Fran started for a brand new franchise.
If I’m not mistaken, Fran had his own headbutting with his coach at times too.
Once Fran got with the right situation, he was able to take off, which didn’t actually happen until he was in his 30s back with Minnesota. He was really good before but wasn’t winning 12 games and competing for Super Bowls.
The other similarity is that Fran was one of the highest completion percentage quarterbacks, in part because he utilized the underneath passing game quite a bit, especially late in his career. And he was prone to a really bad sack from time to time, just like Kyler.
I think Fran is going to have a good time watching him.
Matt D… Top 3 draft sleepers?
It’s funny, when I first started covering the Vikings, I would look for some second or third-round guy and point them out and that would be a “sleeper.” Now there is so much coverage that it’s hard to find anyone that hasn’t been talked about somewhere.
Just for you, I’ll give it a shot anyway.
— Illinois, pass rusher, Gabe Jacas. Had an 88.0 PFF pass rusher grade. He’s a 3-4 outside linebacker type whose comp on NFL.com is Matthew Judon.
— Duke, cornerback, Chandler Rivers. He ran a 4.4 at the NFL Combine. Played inside and outside. Was amazing for Duke in 2024 and still graded 80.7 in coverage this year.
— Iowa, center, Logan Jones. Good fit for the zone run scheme but also had a 90.7 PFF grade in pass blocking. All reports point to high IQ and he’s played a ton of games vs. good competition.
Bradley P… Kirk Cousins continues to make bank. Question: does selling one’s soul to the devil really benefit your pocketbook this much? /s
Kirk making bank is probably less about selling his soul and more about understanding his leverage better than just about any athlete of the last decade. He and his agent knew where the Vikings stood going into 2018 and they maximized that desperate need for an upgrade at quarterback with an NFC Championship-caliber roster. He used the Vikings’ lack of commitment to him against them to get huge guarantees in exchange for short-term deals. And then he saw blood in the water in Atlanta with an aging owner who was determined to get back to relevancy post-Matt Ryan.
I’ll never, ever blame Kirk or his agent for playing the economic game that way.
I would also not blame the Vikings for paying up going into 2018. Their logic was not crazy at all. Kirk was a good QB and they were bringing back 90% of the roster and adding Sheldon Richardson.
Where they went wrong was not realizing that after 2019 it didn’t make much sense to keep the 12th best QB in the NFL on a massive contract while you’re trying to rebuild a roster. They needed to get a veteran placeholder, draft a QB (in a year where there were a number of quality QB prospects) and move on. Instead they got zero playoff appearances for two really good overall Kirk seasons and were held back on improving the roster.
By the way, I think Kirk is going to be a great fit with the Raiders. He can get them back to being respectable on offense with Klint Kubiak while helping along Fernando Mendoza. Nobody knows that offense better than Kirk.
Perry… You think Rob Brzezinski will end up the GM or a liaison between the GM/Coach and the Wilfs? Your thoughts?
So, I asked Mark Wilf directly in Arizona if he wanted to have a different structure with a president of football ops (or whatever title) over the GM and head coach and he said that he wants to stick with the same exact structure they’ve had in the past where both parties are supposed to work together and both answer to ownership.
I don’t think it has to be a problematic structure as long as they can get on the same page but we’ve seen what happens when things go sideways. That’s when the scapegoating happens.
One thing that looks like a positive is that there is a great deal of respect between Rob and KOC. If they go with Rob, I think their strengths will compliment each other.
Bradley P…What did you learn at the owners meetings?
It was more about confirming stuff that I thought than learning new things. Here’s a rundown…
— Kyler Murray’s effectiveness from the pocket and indicating that the idea of revamping the entire offense for him is overrated.
— Frank Smith potentially having a huge impact on the run offense.
— JJ McCarthy commentary was pretty muted overall but KOC seemed happy with how he’s been working.
— We know with pretty strong certainty that Wentz came back to Minnesota because he likes it here and KOC trusts him as a backup but he’s not part of the “competition.”
— Nobody is in a hurry to give away Jonathan Greenard
— Blake Brandel is the center (unless something else arises).
— We got good thoughts from Rob about not spending in free agency. It sounds like they want to remain flexible for the rest of the summer if opportunities arise.
— The draft approach seems to be: “don’t force anything.” That’s how I’ve generally looked at it.
Brad… With the news breaking of Kirk signing in Vegas, assuming they pick Mendoza #1. Do you think this is a shift for teams signing a competent qb and giving young qbs time to acclimate to the NFL? It worked for Maye, Love, It was supposed to happen here in Minnesota, and now hopefully it works in Vegas.
Smart teams have usually wanted to do this with young quarterbacks. It all depends on the given situation. A bad team like the Jets drafted Sam Darnold and played him at 20 years old and then fired Todd Bowles after one year as his HC and then replaced him with the worst HC hire outside of Urban Meyer in the last decade. Meanwhile the Patriots made sure Drake Maye was really ready before he played.
Oftentimes it’s pressure from owners and fans because there’s so much hype around the new QB being the savior. I bet 100 out of 100 coaches would tell you that they’d prefer the kid to develop behind the scenes for a year before getting to play if it was possible. It’s just not always possible. Chicago should have sat Caleb Williams but there was no way they could do that with everyone calling him “generational.”
Klint Kubiak isn’t a dope. He understands the value of a QB like Mendoza getting to watch Cousins for 8 weeks or however long it goes.
I also think that Mendoza played in a very college-y offense. Not that the “pro style” thing is real but it wasn’t anything like the NFL, so there’s going to be an adjustment period.
Dale S… The Vikings have four of the first 100 draft picks this year. It feels like most teams who pick a player in that range, rounds 1-3, expect them to play and make a serious contribution. Are there positions that are more likely to play early or is it reasonable to expect four top 100 guys should be on the field a lot starting year one no matter what position they play?
Yes. It’s a bit of an old study but PFF’s Timo Riske looked at this a few years ago. The running back and safety positions were the ones that most easily became contributors right away. Receivers and corners didn’t take that long. Edge rushers, interior offensive linemen and quarterbacks were the slowest to reach their peak.
If we’re applying that to the Vikings… let’s say that all four guys were going to be able to contribute right away in some fashion… then I’d say CB, DT, RB, WR3 would be the most important positions to hit on.
But I still don’t believe in drafting that way. I like those spots either way but I’m always thinking about trying to find foundational pieces at the most important positions. So edge rusher should be in play.
Evan… Does Mike McCartney become the first agent to make it into the NFL Hall of Fame for getting $341 million (more than the GOAT Tom Brady) guaranteed money in contracts for a QB who is 1-4 in the playoffs?
I can’t imagine there will ever be an agent elected into the Hall of Fame but McCartney has done an unbelievable job with Kirk. An all-time business Hall of Famer, for sure.
IceColdNorth… Which potential draftees do you find yourself repeatedly selecting for the Vikings as you navigate online draft simulations?
I’m mixing it up a lot these days because there are so many good arguments for different players.
Obviously Dillon Thieneman at No. 18 makes a lot of sense, as everyone has mocked him there over and over. I’m now looking at Jermod McCoy after he had a successful pro day. I’ve always been interested in Avieon Terrell, even though he’s a little undersized, I still like him a lot. Kenyon Sadiq is available in a lot fewer drafts at No. 18 than he was before the Combine but I still take him if he’s there. I like the idea of Casius Howell but his arms are so short I’m wondering if anyone actually makes him a first-round pick. We probably shouldn’t totally overlook Emmanuel McNeil-Warren in the discussion either.
In the second round, sometimes I’ll get Jadarian Price (he’s also been a riser). If not I’ll go with SDST CB Chris Johnson but now I’ve become intrigued with Malachi Lawrence from UCF. Seems like a good fit for what they do.
I’ve never covered a year where it was so wide open.
Jeffrey S… Your percentage pie that the Vikings trade up, trade down or stay pat with pick 18.
I’ll go 60% stay put, 30% trade back, 10% trade up.
They have been so rational this entire time that it would be pretty odd if they suddenly decided it was the right time to make some power move to jump up in the draft. Maybe if they needed to go up one or two spots but every time I do a draft simulation, I see four or five guys who make sense at No. 18.
JeffInSeattle… I hope the Vikes are open to trading back to get more picks, but not at the expense of missing out on a player they love. Also, I want them to forget about need - completely - and draft the best player available. Cliche, I know, but we need top flight talent. Day 1 & 2 should focus on the WR, OT, Edge & CB. Pretty much the opposite of Kwesi & Spielman. Just acquire talent!!
Vikings fans have a bit of a complex about trading down because of the 2022 draft and all the times that Rick moved back 10 spots to pick up another seventh-round player that they cut in training camp.
I’m big on trading back in the right spots. If you can drop from 18 to 24 and grab another third or fourth-round pick, do it. If you’re being asked to drop down to No. 32, run away.
When we look at the big picture in 2027 and beyond, this team has a ton of questions. Yes, they can always fill spots through free agency but there are possible openings at edge rusher, LB, DT, RB, WR, CB, S, C, G, T if you look one year down the road.
More picks = more chances to get dudes for those spots. Just make sure you’re not trading so far down that the quality of dude deteriorates.
Jeffrey S..Which players (if you are grinding some tape for the draft) do you think should go higher than the consensus.. Especially if they fit the Vikings.. Any round is fine? And what round would you consider picking Brett Thorson (P)
I would never draft a punter. There are too many UDFAs who have become good, including Ryan Wright, that it doesn’t make sense to spend a pick there.
In terms of players that I’m thinking could go higher than expectation. I’ll throw out a few names: RB Jadarian Price, T Kaydn Proctor, WR Denzel Boston, G Emmanuel Pregnon, ED R Mason Thomas, CB D’angelo Ponds, CB Malik Muhammad, LB Anthony Hill Jr.
That’s based on the Mock Draft Database consensus board.
Matt D…What’s your take on the recent PFF news? You writing up the outline on another book yet?
Unfortunately, it was inevitable. Once they received investment money and put the wrong people in charge of it, there was a very high chance that it wouldn’t survive. The thing about the funeral that everyone had for PFF over the last few days is that it was already a ghost ship. All of the major players who were highlighted in the book had already left because they knew exactly where it was headed.
Thing about the book is that it doesn’t need updating despite everything that has happened. While it finally reached its conclusion this week, all of the things that went wrong were telegraphed within the book.
My main takeaway is that it’s really soul crushing that bad decisions at the top from Cris Collinsworth could lead them in such a bad direction. So many great people were impacted and I can’t help wonder where the company would be right now if they had kept Neil Hornsby in charge and put the right people at the top leading the way. I think we would have seen incredible content that got even better and many more innovations from their data scientists who were pushing the needle with their work. They would have gotten ahold of the tracking data that’s just starting to be used now and begun studying that. Instead… RIP.
(You can check out the book and audiobook here)
Joe S… I’m not hearing much about any connections to the Vikings for Mike Washington Junior, when I watch highlights he looks like exactly what they need but I’m a novice so what do I know. Any thoughts?
Well, there isn’t always buzz between player and team before a guy gets selected. They have had a few of the RBs in for visits, including another explosive guy Demond Claiborne.
The thing about Mike Washington Jr. is that NFL.com’s 1-100 draft metrics ranked him as the No. 2 running back in terms of athleticism and the 17th in terms of production. That’s a little concerning. We’ve seen lots of RBs come out of college with crazy fast 40 times that aren’t the home run hitters everyone thinks.
Here’s some perspective on how the Combine can mess with you. Dalvin Cook ran a middling 4.49 40-yard dash and ranked in the 12th percentile of the 3-cone drill and 6th percentile of the 20-yard split. Yet he was incredibly explosive. I’d be much more interested in looking how many big runs the guys actually had in college rather than Combine numbers.
For example, Jeremiyah Love had 39 runs over 10 yards, which was basically best in the nation. Emmett Johnson had 36. Washington Jr. had 30 on only 167 carries. That’s an impressive rate.
Jadarian Price had a crazy rate with 24 10+ carries in just 113 carries. Insane.
Anyway, Washington Jr. does profile as a good option for what they are looking for. I like the fit. But I also think we can make too much of the NFL Combine when it comes to trying to figure out which dudes are going to get explosive runs in the NFL. A lot of it has to do with following blocks and picking holes.
Brent K… Coller, I know you like Brezinski. I agree that he would make a good President of the Vikings who can oversee the coach and GM on a daily basis. But the Wilfs have said they want a traditional GM without a President as a go-between to ownership.
. . . I feel it is important for the team to hire an experienced GM from outside the Vikings who can bring in some new ideas, rebuild the college scouting department, and follow a team building philosophy that gets the Vikings out of mediocrity. What say you? Agree or disagree?
Funny thing about that is experienced GMs almost never get hired in the NFL. How many retread GMs are in the NFL right now? It’s very, very few. Nowhere near what it is for head coaches. And when you say experienced, it’s pretty hard to argue that Rob doesn’t have the experience necessary when he’s been a major part of their front office for two decades plus.
Your other point is fair. New ideas are good. I’m not as sold on firing all the scouts as everyone else because they scout dozens of players and the team picks five — we have no idea how good their intel actually was.
The philosophy is going to be set by ownership. That’s how the NFL works. It’s that way in every NFL city except for Green Bay. So the GM is going to follow the direction of the folks at the top. If they don’t ever want to have a full teardown, then the next GM won’t have a full teardown.
I’m perfectly fine with the idea of a different GM other than Rob if that’s the direction they want to go. Fresh perspective might be good. But let’s keep in mind that this organization is 5th in wins since Kevin O’Connell took over and all the organizations ahead of them or tied have had consistency at the QB position. You don’t want to throw the baby out with the bathwater here.
Jason…What are the top draft needs of the NFC north teams outside the Vikings?
Detroit probably has to take a left tackle in the first round after losing Taylor Decker. They also need pass rush in the worst way. Chicago needs defense. I expected them to make some big moves in free agency but they really didn’t go as far as expected and they lost a bunch of their secondary. Most mocks have them going CB or safety.
The Packers don’t have a first-round pick so I’m not sure where they will go. Offensive line should be a huge priority but they also don’t have much around Micah Parsons on defense, which became very obvious once he went down with the injury.
That’s what’s interesting about the NFC North. Nobody really separated themselves in free agency.
Matt R…Matthew, hope you’re able to get a round or two in! I’m on the Rob for GM bandwagon. It seems like he could be the front runner, but the Vikings are also conducting a search, or will be. Have you heard any rumors of anyone they’re interested in interviewing?
This weather is terrible so not yet. I have a long standing tradition with Sam Ekstrom to play golf on draft day, regardless of the weather. Hopefully we get to do it again this year. He’s an elite golf buddy. Always shows up on time. Plays fast. Knows ball.
They don’t even know who they are interviewing yet, so those rumors don’t actually exist. Mark Wilf said that they are in the process of outlining what type of GM candidates they are looking for and then they are going to start putting together the list. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.
Stanley H… Matt, thank you for being our “insider” for the Vikings. I am running draft simulations (like everyone else) on the ESPN draft simulator. I keep getting Makai Lemon WR and Aveion Terrell CB being available at #18, as well as Thieneman. Can you break down the reason for taking WR or CB in the first found and conversely, why to take Thieneman over them. I understand the dollar value of a WR is very great versus other non-QB players.
Sure. If the Vikings take Lemon and he gets 45 catches in Year 1 as the WR3 option, that would be in the same ballpark of Romeo Doubs, who just got $17 million per season. He would also be great depth of Jefferson or Addison got banged up. Then if they were very pleased with him, they could play the Jefferson/Addison/Lemon trio in 2027 and let Addison walk for $30M+ on the open market and slide Lemon into the WR2 spot. In the process, the hope would be that these elite talents made Kyler Murray into a legitimate contending QB, just like Thielen-Diggs, Thielen-Jefferson or Jefferson-Addison did for Kirk Cousins or Sam Darnold.
The case for drafting a cornerback is that it usually takes elite traits to be a top-top guy. You can find mediocre talents in free agency and fill spots but you can’t get Pat Surtain anywhere else other than the first round. Imagine Flores’ defense with a guy who could lock down top receivers rather than always having to scheme the other team to death. Plus, a year down the road Isaiah Rodgers is a free agent and Murphy Jr. becomes very expensive.
As far as safety goes, Thieneman might just be the best player. Sometimes you gotta just roll with that. Even though safety isn’t “premium,” if you’re getting the best of the best, it often works out.
Speedi… Everyone talked about KOC being on the hot seat, which has gone away.
No one is recognizing that Murray chose Minnesota in part due to the presence of KOC, the coaching staff at QB, the culture, and the 1st-class treatment of players. That’s like $30 million of value at QB. Does anyone think he would have come if we still had Zimmer? Being able to attract players who want to come or stay in Minnesota is huge. Flores staying probably has much to do with KOC management style. I think this is why we need to keep KOC for the long term and ride through the ups and downs as we struggle to get a true franchise QB.
It’s not a coincidence that the Vikings landed a former No. 1 overall QB who consistently ranks (when healthy) in the top 15 and people stopped talking about the heat on KOC. Because even the detractors have to acknowledge that when this guy has had a proven top-15 QB, he’s gone 31-11 in the regular season.
Depends on when you’re talking about with Zimmer. Sam Bradford got along great with Zimmer. So did Teddy Bridgewater. He also hired an eventual Super Bowl-winning offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak. We can’t lose sight of all the context there.
If your premise is that riding with KOC for the long haul because QBs respect him greatly, free agents want to be here, the culture can survive a 4-8 start and turn it into a 9-8 finish and good coaches like Brian Flores, Matt Daniels, Wes Phillips, Josh McCown etc. want to stay here to keep working with him… well, then I would totally agree with you.
KOC is exactly the type of coach who would get fired because of an overreaction to one event or bad season and then go win a Super Bowl elsewhere with the right club.
That doesn’t mean O’Connell is perfect. No coach is. But I’d much rather keep betting on a guy who has won a bunch of games and checks a lot of other boxes than choose the field. Look at the rate of coaches who even make it two or three years after they get hired.
I also know that he knows all the stuff that we’re talking about in terms of critiques and we’ve seen him make changes. I said during 2024 that it felt like he was never comfortable just grinding a game out. He switched that late in 2025 to get to nine wins. We’ve talked about the lack of identity in the run game and they hired Frank Smith.
Bradley P… It was super refreshing to see Rob B say that they’re not drafting for need. Is there a more foolhardy NFL draft proposition than drafting for need? Needs seem to change constantly and they can always use expensive players as trade bait.
Not that I disagree but most GMs won’t admit they are drafting for need.
Drafting for need is necessary in a lot of instances. If you don’t have a WR1 or left tackle or star pass rusher, you have to pick them. You don’t have a choice because you won’t win anything without them. If your need is WR1 and Justin Jefferson happens to be on the board, then drafting for need is wonderful.
We should really say that the bad idea is reaching for need. That’s Rob’s point. Don’t pick a middling prospect because you need that spot if there’s a great prospect at another position that isn’t as dire.
You are right that needs change all the time. We all think we can see a year ahead but we truly can’t predict what’s going to happen 365 days later, so pick the best player and figure it out. Theoretically that makes sense. In practice, it’s harder.
Ben… Does the situation in Philadelphia feel like Minnesota?? Team didn’t meet expectations so we blame the GM ( or in Philadelphia case Jalen Hurts)
There is always a scapegoat. I can’t remember any disappointment with any team where somebody wasn’t made into the fall guy. It’s interesting that the Hurts bashing coincides with his cap situation getting ugly over the next two years. But, as Stefon Diggs said, there is truth to all rumors. Something has been off there for a while.
Denton D… From what I read it seems there are a few players with the potential to be great but mostly this draft is thought to be solid. There does not seem to be a huge drop off between the 18th pick and the 100th pick. If that is how the Vikes see it, it makes a lot of sense to trade down to pick up an extra 2nd and 3rd and perhaps even an early 4th round pick. The Vikes could in this scenario end up with 6 picks between the 2nd and 4th rounds. They could get IOL and RB in the late 3rd and early 4th rounds. They could get CB, DL, S, WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. 6 picks in the top 100-ish players is exactly what the Vikes need at this point to get a little younger and free of cap space in the next couple of drafts.
It definitely makes a lot of sense to trade back but there are two issues there: The idea that there isn’t that big of a drop between 18 and 100 is dubious, even in a draft with a lot of B+ prospects. You can take any draft ever and compare picks 15-25 vs. picks 90-100 and I guarantee it’s going to be no contest that the top selections blow away the 90-100 in terms of success. I’d be fine with them dropping back by a couple of picks but even 18-32 historically is a pretty large decline in success rate.
Here’s the other problem: If you know that this is a draft with a lot of B+ talent, then certainly the rest of the NFL knows. Teams probably aren’t going to be willing to make big swing trades up if the gap between the prospects isn’t that enormous, especially when the premium positions are weak.
Overall, the theory of trading down works in this scenario. The execution. We’ll see.
Walt K… Hey, Matt. What have you heard in regards to the team’s brain trust and their feelings on McCarthy and if he’s still a guy that they believe has a future with the team? Kyler seems like a lock to be the starter, but his injury history says that McCarthy (or Wentz) may get some run this season. If he were to play well that would certainly make decisions next offseason entertaining. Sorry for the loaded question, I just find this QB dynamic fascinating for the team’s future.
I don’t think you need to be a mind reader or Woodward & Bernstein to figure this one out. They want to see McCarthy make progress but the kid gloves phase is over. The team went out and signed a good veteran QB to come restore order to the offense and give them a chance to really compete. There are certainly scenarios that you could see it still somehow working out where McCarthy lights it up during training camp and preseason and then ends up playing games during a Murray injury and ends up back in their plans but the odds of a QB coming back as the franchise starting QB once he’s been replaced like this are very low. That’s how it goes sometimes. Trey Lance and Anthony Richardson can relate.