Friday mailbag: All the QB questions

For the first time in a long time Kirk Cousins won't start for the Vikings and fans want to know what happens next

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By Matthew Coller

Hey everybody… has it been a week or five years since we last had a Friday mailbag? Amazing how much can change in a week. Let’s dive into all of your questions about the QB situation, trade deadline and what happens going forward…

Pickle Enjoyer… I think the Vikes go 3-6 the rest of the way and draft a QB in the first. That being said, I think that the replacement QBs will play well enough because of the surrounding talent and KOC's play calling to convince ownership that Cousins isn't the only person who can thrive in this environment. Tell me why I'm wrong.

Good day to you, Pickle Enjoyer. I don’t disagree with your win-loss projection because the defense is good enough to steal a game or two and Dobbs has played well at times. If I was trying to convince you that you are wrong, well, I looked up backup quarterbacks this year, just using the criteria that they were not the team’s Day 1 starter and they are 9-21 on the year and the best backup (Gardner Minshew) ranks 20th in QB rating. There might be nothing O’Connell can do if his backups turn the ball over and kill drives by getting sacked.

When I was in Buffalo they went through a bunch of guys like EJ Manuel, Thad Lewis, Jeff Tuel, Tyrod Taylor etc. and every time people would think the play caller was a fool. Once Josh Allen got there, the play caller got a head coaching job. Such is life in the NFL. I don’t think they should use what happens next as a test case for the future because the expectation is that the player they replace Cousins with (if they do replace him) is going to be a first-round talent or proven QB.

Jason… Is a sixth-round pick really worth losing guard depth when line play is going to be critical the rest of the season? Is their roster implications I am not seeing?

The other part of that trade is that they have praised Blake Brandel since training camp and Chris Reed appears to be ready to come back. It looks like they felt comfortable with what they would have if either guard were to get hurt. I think pretty much any team that doesn’t believe it has a legit chance to win the Super Bowl would trade a backup guard who they weren’t going to re-sign to the highest bidder…even if that bid isn’t impressive. The interesting thing with Cleveland is that his pass blocking numbers were much better this year. They just never seemed on board with him.

Bradley P… How did you interpret KAM comments regarding Cousins? What are your odds that they keep him versus draft someone? Correct me if I’m wrong but I think Kirk will need to be signed before the draft or risk losing him.

Cousins would need to be signed before the start of the league year, which is in March. That’s when players officially hit the market. The way I interpreted the comments was that everyone likes Cousins and thinks he played exceptionally well but there are so many more factors to the discussion about re-signing him. There has to be a line in the sand they will not cross in terms of dollars and years and there very well could be other teams that will cross that line out of desperation. I thought what Adofo-Mensah said when he was asked about wanting Kirk back was right on. Paraphrased: It’s not just about wanting him or not wanting him. I count about one-third of the league that’s going to need QBs and only a few of them can take first-rounders. I’d put it at 25% Cousins is back.

DrewPearsonShovedOff1975… Has the narrative completely changed over to a "Keep Kirk" theme in the organization?

I don’t believe so. Adofo-Mensah said nothing that happened with either his play or the injury changed their long-term outlook. Everyone wants to acknowledge how meaningful he has been to their locker room, their turnaround this year and how terrific his recent play was. That doesn’t change the realities of his age, the injury and what it is going to cost to keep him vs. how much cap space they need to make this a Super Bowl-caliber roster. Let’s not forget that he won 13 games and played extremely well in 2022 and they still didn’t sign him to an extension last offseason.

Jeff G… Keep up the great work Matthew!! Assuming the Jefferson extension is a given next off-season, it seems to me they wouldn’t be able to afford new contracts for both Hunter and Cousins - even if the latter agreed to a home team discount of say $30 to $35 million a year for two seasons. In my mind they could only afford one of #8 and #99. Thoughts?

Thanks Jeff. It’s not that they couldn’t afford them both, it’s what they have to sacrifice in order to afford them both. When they signed Cousins they found the cap space and then moved money around like crazy to keep the team together for 2018 and 2019 but the expense was the next three years — which Adofo-Mensah is still untangling. The thing about extending Cousins is that, yes, some of the void year money can be moved but not all of it. They would basically have to do what New Orleans or Tampa Bay did in the final years of Brees and Brady to make it all work. Is that something they really want to do? Hunter remains a tough one. He’s so wildly consistent but if they extend him there is no chance of getting a discount if he finishes in the top five in sacks, whereas there might have been a middle ground had they done it before training camp. The sacrifice you make is all the future cap trouble that gets created and all the players who could be added via sign or trade that you miss out on. I’m not sure they want to do that. Complete rosters compete for Super Bowls, not teams with five expensive stars and hopes and dreams.

Michael Zerebeski… Cousins is still going to be looking for 40 million with a 3 year 120 million all guaranteed. March is a long ways away. He is a HOF contract negotiator.

You won’t get a fight from me on this one. You can bet that by February there will be a story saying that he’s way ahead of schedule and will make a full recovery. His agent is going to have charts and graphs ready to show how well he was playing before he got hurt and his previous lack of injury history. It might be worth noting that the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots have more than $90 million in cap space next year. The Buccaneers have over $60 million. The Falcons have over $50 million (all per OverTheCap.com). One of those teams steps up to the plate, right?

Josh Bondy… Hi Matthew, Curious to get your thoughts; Given that the likely identity of this year's team is going to be leaning into the defense, I wish they would have swung on a Chase Young for a 3rd deal. He fits the high draft pick, low cost model our GM likes (albeit a 3rd for an expiring is a little risky), Young seemed like perfect profile for a buy low. Coming from a situation where everything was terrible, and adding him to a Hunter, and Davenport line in a Flores system would have been fun and potentially a bankable identity for the rest of the year if not longer. Bigger picture, he could have been Hunter insurance next year or perhaps with this cap space, we could have signed him to a longer term deal along with Hunter.

I see where you’re coming from. The issue with Chase Young is that if a team like the Vikings trades for him, they have to re-sign him. The 49ers can use him as a rental and argue that the 3rd is worth it because they can win the Super Bowl. If you acquire Young via trade and he racks up 7.0 sacks the rest of the year, he’s going to want $25 million per year and then the Vikings are in the same spot as they are with Hunter except the guy is younger (but still has injury history) and way less consistent or reliable than Hunter. Not sure I’d want to give him the big dollars. If Cousins hadn’t gotten hurt it’s very possible they would have considered some short-term moves to beef up a team that was starting to get hot and play like an NFC contender but once Kirk went down there was no way they could do something short term. If they are going to spend on a pass rusher, I imagine they’ll want it to be someone with a little more history than just the contract year.

Josh Bondy… Also Josh Dobb reminds me of Kent Graham.

Great pull. Kent was definitely not the athlete that Josh Dobbs is but I can see it as a thrower.

Bradley P… I tend to think Kwesi has done a good job. People murder him for his first year but he came in so late and had to lean hard on his scouts. This past draft has been much more analytical and a success. Thoughts?

We can look far and wide for all the reasons the ‘22 draft went sideways but I’ll always look at it as something that happens to every team. If Lewis Cine was a dynamic player as he looked in college for the best program in college football, they would be a pretty beastly defense right now and we’d be talking about what a good idea it was not to pick Jameson Williams. Lots of team have regrets from that same draft. Heck, the team that picked No. 1 overall blew it terribly. They could have had Aidan Hutchinson or Sauce Gardner and instead went with Trevon Walker. That’s life with the draft. Where I do agree is that 2023 felt more analytical in the positional value that they took and the guys like Addison and Blackmon were darlings by the PFF data.

When we evaluate a GM, we need to look at the bigger picture more than move to move. Some draft picks and signings aren’t going to work out. The Eagles and 49ers have massive busts in the last five years but also elite rosters because they built around rookie QB contracts, understood their timelines, utilized their cap space wisely and took the right risks at the right times.

I find myself asking: Do they have a plan? Does the plan makes sense? Are they staying with the plan? Love it or hate it, they have absolutely made “competitive rebuild” the driving force behind every move and the way they’ve handled things so far has made sense. But it’s a constant assessment as things change.

Chris Dymond… What should we make of Cleveland’s departure? He gets injured, they finally activate Risner at LG instead of replacing the hitherto assumed worse guard at RG, the line almost immediately appears to improve, at least statistically, against apparently excellent opposing units, and Cleveland is out the door at the trade deadline. Was he causing breakdowns all along? Did the switch from tackle to guard severely hamstring his career?

Interestingly the All-22 look at the Green Bay game and PFF scores revealed a lot lesser of a performance than I initially thought from the offensive line, so I don’t think that Risner coming in for Cleveland suddenly brought the offensive line together in magical ways. They still have their strengths and weaknesses. At least by his PFF grades he seemed to either have really good games or struggle, which may have been frustrating for them.

Offensive line coaches also have so many more details in mind than what we understand from just watching. Think of it like with musicians. Lots of people play drums but do you play jazz, rock, blues, pop etc.? Maybe Cleveland wasn’t able to consistently nail some of the details that they wanted. Risner definitely brings more grit to his game than a finesse former tackle. I’ll truly never understand why Ezra didn’t play a single rep at tackle and then the Vikings drafted another tackle (not that CD isn’t amazing) without even seeing it for a single practice or pre-season game. I wonder if someone else eventually tries him there.

And we can’t forget that they want Ingram to continue developing and Cleveland was going to cost more than they were willing to pay on the market as a free agent, which was at the center of this.

Chris… I'll be watching tonight. Curious if the Vikes missed out on a stud with Levis. Though Matt thinks he throws the ball too high in the air.

I don’t know what you’re talking about with throwing the ball too high. Must be a bizarre interpretation of something I said on the podcast but alas… yes, it’s going to be worth watching as Levis plays more to see if he ends up becoming a legitimate starter. He definitely looked good at times against the Steelers. The thing is, I’m of two minds about that decision. From a front office perspective, it’s reasonable to take shots at QB even if you don’t love the guy because a hit is worth five times what any other position is worth. But could you really ask Kevin O’Connell to take a QB that he wasn’t sold on?

Howard… Many thanks for the great work. Why did the Vikings not trade to improve our running game? Are we seriously going to risk the health of our QB by having more running from him than we saw from cousins? Also, is JJ defiantly coming back for the saints game?

Thank you for reading my work, Howard. It’s hard to say what options they would have had in terms of getting another running back and if they could have acquired anyone without giving up draft capital. I’d rather see Akers and Chandler play more down the stretch than have them pay draft picks for a veteran who might only be percentage points better. You are right that if they don’t run more effectively then they will be in a lot of third-and-long situations that put the QB under more duress than either Hall or Dobbs can handle.

As far as Jefferson, I can’t see a scenario where he just sits out. It was ridiculous for that idea to be floated by some national reporters considering the guy took every single rep in training camp and then played the way he did early in the season. I’ve heard nothing that would indicate he’s not going to come back.

Thomas… Do you love the seemingly constant chaos or do you crave a “normal” week?

When I first arrived and all hell broke loose in 2016 with Teddy Bridgewater’s injury, I commented to Ben Goessling about how crazy things were and he said that it was pretty much par for the course. I thought he was just giving the new guy a hard time but it’s definitely been non stop since then. I’d say that it’s pretty hard to come up with any scenario where I’m not enjoying doing this job, chaotic or not. If I wanted normalcy, I wouldn’t have this career. I do feel for Vikings fans because it’s a never ending barrage of almosts with this franchise. Just as they’re turning the corner on the season, bang. It’s not surprising to me that the guy who invented Charlies Brown whiffing on the football was from here.

TheDude… Less a question than a thought.... If Dean Lowry is hurt, I am really hopeful Jaquelin Roy gets some run... For a 5th round rookie, he has looked pretty good in small doses... Would like to see if he can handle more.

There was something about how Roy used his hands in training camp that really stood out to me. Agree that he’s made a few plus plays that make me think there could be something there. I’d like to see more from anyone who could be part of the future, whether it’s Roy, Booth Jr., Asamoah… even if it’s just rotating in.

Ben… What’s your opinion on Kwesi valuing players opinions when it came to weather he would stand pat or sell at the trade deadline??

The interpersonal part of the job is extremely important. I just dug up my PS2 and played a little Madden ‘05 for a few minutes the other night and the first thing I did was went in and traded some players for draft picks. If it was like that, being a GM would be easy as heck. Everything would be black and white, make the best move every time with no considerations of what others thing. Boom! Hey, maybe that helped Belichick over the years when he could do whatever he wanted and everyone thought it was brilliant because… Tom Brady.

Anyway, my point is that trading Danielle Hunter would have been crushing to the players and they would have felt like the management was giving up. I imagine the coaching staff may have seen it similarly. You can’t have that if you’re going to sell that everyone is pulling in the same direction. Maybe at some point there will be conflict and it’s possible that not trading for a better QB at the deadline was already a point of contention (not reporting, only wondering) but they have to try to do their best not to have head butting like what happened at the end of the Zimmer era.

Eric … Is there a precedent for a QB injury in the final year of their deal and the impact on their next contract? If we could sign kirk to a short term deal at a discount you could draft a QB in the later part of round 1 or 2 and have Kirk serve as a bridge. That wasn’t possible before the injury but if he agrees to a discount and end his career in Minnesota like he’s implied he wanted to do. I don’t see him getting a big multi year contract at his age with that injury.

The words “Kirk” and “discount” have never gone together and I can’t imagine that changing now. Usually QBs aren’t in the final year of their contracts so it’s hard to think of examples where something like this has happened. Sam Bradford’s knee injury was one in a very long list of knee problems. This is more of a one-time thing. I’m not we should dismiss the possibility of Cousins returning to be the bridge QB, it’s just that with so many teams in need of a quarterback and the way he was playing this year, I can’t imagine the Vikings will be the only interested party.

Kyle… What effect, if any at all, does Kirk Cousins’ injury have on the debate about natural grass versus artificial turf playing surfaces?

There seems to be a lot of different perspectives on that. I’m not sure that grass solves all problems when it comes to injuries. It does seem that there’s some types of turf that are better than others and I believe the Vikings are making a switch at some point. But people are always going to get hurt in football.

Jim… After the inevitable 8-9 do the Vikings have the ammunition to trade up in the upcoming draft? I'm worried about there being a QB left in the first round worth drafting this year, if they end up barely missing the playoffs or making it in as a wildcard. There are a lot of QB needy teams this year for the upcoming draft. Chicago, Washington, Atlanta, Green Bay, Las Vegas, New England, Tampa, and potentially Denver(?), all seem to need a QB at the end of the season. Most of those teams could finish worse than the Vikings and snap up the QBs before they pick.

It’s a tricky spot, man. You are absolutely right. This is exactly the argument that Cousins’ agent is going to make for why they need to extend him. They may have to be prepared to make a Trey Lance-like trade where they sell the farm to move up. Considering that they have superstar players at a lot of key positions, that might be semi-reasonable to do. There were rumors that they were making phone calls about the cost to go get Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson last year. There also might be other options that I haven’t thought about.

Back in the day we saw teams with really good rosters go out and find quarterbacks that other teams developed and run with them like Seattle with Matt Hasselbeck, Mark Brunell, Jake Plummer, Trent Green… maybe there’s a situation like that somewhere.

Andrew…

1.       Who is winning the game?

I’ll go Falcons 21-17.

2.       If it’s the Vikings, what is your pie chart of key factors?  Mine is 45% the rookie doesn’t throw picks or lose fumbles; 30% the OL continues its excellent pass pro and run blocks enough for non-QBs rush for 100+ yds; 20% an effective and disciplined (prevent scrambles) pass rush; and 5% when Heinicke passes to Vikings they catch it.

I’d go with 40% Hall doesn’t turn the ball over, 20% Arthur Smith’s offense is wacky, 20% Jordan Addison, KJ Osborn and TJ Hockenson all make plays, 20% Flores’ defense causes turnovers.

The Falcons are one of the strangest teams in the league. Hey, look, a team that needs a Kirk.

Ben… The Raiders have had 8 head coaches in 12 years. Are they unlucky or does Mark Davis lack good judgment skills??

More judgement than luck, I’d say. Hiring Gruden was obviously a bad idea because they basically handed over the entire organization to him and then they made wacky decisions all over the place. Missing on that many draft picks is unlucky, but a bunch of them were over-drafted by consensus board standards and at the least valuable positions. McDaniels was so clearly a guy that couldn’t handle being a head coach that Davis was asking for it with him. Not trying to trade up for a QB and instead rolling with Jimmy G and expecting to win was just such a baffling choice.

JayW… With the Cleveland trade are the Vikes looking to extend Risner?

My guess would be the answer is yes, if he plays well and they like the fit next to Darrisaw then they will keep him. They will have a big sample size to work with now that he’s going to start the rest of the season.

Josh… So, is DJ Wonnum really a thing now?

He’s playing a lot more physically than he did in the past when it comes to the run and tackling, which is growth. He’s never really been a quick-twitch type pass rusher that beats people off the line of scrimmage so he never grades well by PFF but he’s definitely playing better, which seems to be a theme for just about everyone under Brian Flores.

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