Every quarterback is an ink blot test

What we learn about ourselves when watching prospect quarterbacks

By Matthew Coller

Kevin O’Connell said something at his pre-draft press conference that didn’t particularly stand out in the moment but got me thinking much more about it when I re-read his comments a few days later.

Talking about the balance of collaboration within the coaching staff and front office while also taking the lead on the Minnesota Vikings’ decision at quarterback, O’Connell said:

“The quarterback position is one where you might have 10 really smart coaches or personnel folks watch the same cut-up but you might come away with 10 different opinions.”

Isn’t that strange? When analysts talk about QB prospects, you will often hear phrases like, “the NFL thinks…” or “people in the league believe…” as if it’s one big footbally behemoth that has secret hidden scouting sorcery rather. Instead it’s a bunch of folks who are watching players and forming opinions. Yes, they are more well trained and better informed on the players than everyone on the outside but every single person weighs different aspects of a quarterback differently and there must be about 100 different categories that you can use to analyze them.

Tom Pelissero of NFL Network talked to NFL coaches and executives for an extensive NFL.com article and these two quotes appeared about the same quarterback:

1 — "I don't think he's a great processor. I saw a bunch of times on his tape where he's just throwing it and he doesn't even see defenders and gets away with it. Can he win on third down when it's not third-and-4 because they run for 180 yards today?”

2 — “You feel like you're watching an NFL-ready quarterback. It's the reads, the drops, the whole system -- everything he's been asked to do for his whole career is play NFL football.”

Of course, those comments were about JJ McCarthy. Pelissero’s article has coaches and executives saying everything about the Michigan quarterback from suggesting Chicago consider him for No. 1 overall to: "would put your job on the line to take him at 5 or 4 or 3 or, God forbid, 2?”

Opinions on quarterbacks dig down to the soul of the person watching and trying to solve the riddle. It’s the ultimate ink blot test.

As I was thinking about this, two things came to mind. One was, I wonder what my opinions on this quarterback class say about the way I perceive quarterbacks?

Before we get to that, it also me wondering about where the ink blot test came from and what they are supposed to do.

It’s actually called the Rorschach test after a Swiss psychiatrist named Hermann Rorschach. The Guardian did a massive article about the test years ago in which they laid out his process of categorizing whether people focused on form, color or movement within the pictures.

These two particular paragraphs in the Guardian piece stood out:

“Seeing is an act of the mind, not just the eyes. When you look at something, you are directing your attention to parts of the visual field and ignoring others. You see the book in your hand or the ball hurtling toward you, and choose to disregard all the other information that is reaching your eye: the colour of your desk, the shapes of clouds in the sky. You are constantly cross-checking what is out there against objects and ideas you recognise and remember. Information and instructions are travelling along nerves from the eye to the brain, and from the brain to the eye.”

“We see through our personal and cultural lens, according to the habits of a lifetime, which are shaped by a particular culture. This helps explain why the question Rorschach asked in the test is so crucial. If we are asked “How does this make you feel?” or “Tell me a story about this scene”, that task does not test our perception. We can free-associate thoughts or feelings from inkblots.”

People who study the complexity of the human mind and spirit might be diving into a slightly more complex set of questions than asking which of these six quarterbacks will be the best based on watching them play in college and looking up their stats on PFF but there are some things that apply to our present endeavor. Where we direct our attention when it comes to a quarterback matters. Our personal and cultural experiences within a lifetime of watching football matters.

So let’s talk about these quarterbacks in that way. What do my eyes focus on? How does my history of watching and football guide me in opinions about quarterbacks?

From years of watching great NFL quarterbacks against the Vikings, I’ve come to pay attention to the body language and resilience of the quarterback. Mike Zimmer’s defense used to break quarterbacks mentally. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers would never stop fighting. The game was never over. The second half comeback by Drew Brees in the Miracle game — especially the fourth down pass that put the Saints ahead late — was the most impressive quarterback play I’ve ever seen.

I scan for signs of the QB getting rattled. I look for how his teammates are responding. Does the defense seem worn out by the fact that they can’t put him down for good no matter how many hits they lay on him. I don’t mind a quarterback having a terrible game if he’s still fighting like crazy at the end.

That’s why Caleb Williams’ game against Washington concerned me. By the end of the game he looked like he wanted to be anywhere else. I’ve thought about that look in his eyes way more than I’ve thought about any absurd pass that he makes on the run.

I know objectively it’s wrong to put that much emphasis on one moment but I’m not sure that I see the next Mahomes in his ink blot.

My brain also focuses on the timing. There’s a heartbeat to playing quarterback. When Williams doesn’t throw the ball in rhythm, I feel physical discomfort. Mahomes and Allen have tricked us into thinking you can do whatever in the pocket and still make magic. But even those guys throw 60-70% of their throws on time to their No. 1 reads.

Kirk Cousins hung onto the ball too long and it drove me batty through the years. Yet his average snap-to-throw was still 2.71 seconds. That tells you how fast things happen in the NFL.

Williams bailing from first reads to scramble was hard to watch at times, no matter how prolific his numbers were.

None of this is to say that I think Williams will bust, just to point out that in the ink blot test that is the No. 1 overall pick I’m struggling more with the idea of a generational talent than others.

I felt more fight in Drake Maye’s game. His team was horrendous. In his game against Duke he made about seven throws while guys where hanging off him. He took shots down the field with no regard for human life. He tried to hurdle a guy. When one of his receivers somehow got open, he played on time and got the ball out.

I tended to ignore bad decisions or inaccurate throws because he never seemed to let it bother him. It reminded me of Favre. Just kept slingin’.

My eye focused on how the football flew through the air. It moved quickly, yet elegantly. It wasn’t shot out of a cannon when he threw over the middle of the field with time to throw in the pocket, it was more like a basketball shot and glided into the basket.

Some other stuff I can’t help but focus on: Michael Penix Jr. plays with a ton of heart. He was the head of the snake. No fear. He didn’t mind that his team’s fate was entirely on his shoulders. He also throws with anticipation.

Bo Nix gets the ball out so quickly even when he throws intermediate and deep passes. It looks right, even if it doesn’t look special.

Jayden Daniels is a brain teaser because his runs keep screaming Lamar Jackson yet his passes keep looking like Tyrod Taylor. Floating the ball up to the deep outside part of the field over and over just doesn’t look very NFL-ish.

And then there’s JJ McCarthy. The ball seems like it’s being aimed and everything is a fastball. The supposed NFL offense doesn’t look like an NFL offense to me unless we are talking about Neil O’Donnell running the 1995 Pittsburgh Steelers.

Not that he doesn’t do some spectacular things. Not that he can’t develop over the next few years into a very good quarterback but when the first thing I hear about a QB is that he’s smart and a winner, yet his team didn’t rest on his shoulders in college, I can’t help but think of all the 40-pass games where Kirk Cousins was asked to be the entire Vikings offense.

Putting my ink blot test aside, I know that McCarthy would have a good chance to thrive as the Vikings quarterback. I know he can develop and I know that I have no freaking idea which QB will become good in the long run. I’m also aware that Kevin O’Connell is better at looking at his Rorschach test and getting the right answers than me. I’d still give the Vikings an A+ for taking McCarthy because my mind can play tricks on me. It sure did with Josh Allen back in 2018.

It’s funny though. We are all thinking about the 2024 QB class as if we are either going to be right or wrong. As if once a quarterback is in the NFL then the ink blot tests are over. Kirk Cousins is certainly proof that’s not the case. Some people saw the victim of left guards and an angry old coach, others saw an expensive and unathletic QB who couldn’t get it done. Heck, a bunch of people in Chicago somehow thought Justin Fields was the answer. Ask 100 people about Justin Herbert and see how many different answers you get.

That’s what makes this week so compelling. We will all look at the Vikings’ decision at quarterback choice a different way. Did they give up too much? Did they get someone who is too raw or too old or too injured or whose arm doesn’t resemble Jeff George’s enough? Or did they get it exactly right and find the 10-year franchise QB everyone has dreamed about?

It’ll be a long time until we know and sometimes we’ll never know (see: Bridgewater, Culpepper). Hey, before you go, have a look at this picture. Which quarterback do you see playing for the Vikings? I see Maye with the No. 3 overall pick but you might see something very different.

---