Dexter Lawrence's availability tests Vikings' patient approach
Should the Vikings chase after the Giants' defensive tackle who has haunted them?
By Matthew Coller
The NFL really has a way of testing your opinions, doesn’t it?
Over the past month, Minnesota Vikings fans have sat inside while they watched out the window as all of their friends played in free agency. March this year was like being sick on the first 75 degree day of summer. It was like not being tall enough to go on the big kid rides and watching the roller coaster go loop-de-loop over and over from the ground.
Yet during that time, the moth-to-flame effect of a team signing free agency wore off and there was clarity. Ah, yes, it’s actually good that the Vikings weren’t particularly active.
This is far from just rationalization. History has a lot to say about teams that go crazy in free agency. The Vikings got a lot of praise for their 2025 free agency moves but many of them don’t look great one year later. That’s also true for a lot of the biggest moves of last offseason. Chicago spent big on Grady Jarrett, who ranked 60th of 90 starters at DT by PFF. Green Bay signed guard Aaron Banks and cornerback Nate Hobbs. Banks finished 52 of 61 starters by PFF and Hobbs got cut this offseason.
Certainly free agency hasn’t been bad to the Vikings. In 2024, they landed Sam Darnold, Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Blake Cashman, Aaron Jones and Stephon Gilmore and basically rebuilt the roster in one offseason. But the funny thing about those moves is that they were mostly considered B-level additions outside Greenard. AVG and Cashman had their best seasons in Minnesota and Jones and Gilmore staved off father time.
Sometimes the most hyped acquisitions don’t always prove to be game changers. So sitting free agency out might have helped the Vikings avoid decisions that either won’t pay off or could hurt them cap wise down the road.
In the Vikings particular position this offseason, spending big dollars to fix immediate needs would have forced them to make some concessions on the future. Every new add would likely have needed to come along with a contract restructure or extension that would have pushed money out into the future.
Not doing that gives them more flexibility next offseason in beyond rather than battling the dead cap monster year after year.
It’s really hard to argue with a methodical approach. The team is almost entirely still together from last year with the addition of Kyler Murray at quarterback, which gives them as good of a chance as anyone in the NFC North to win the division if things go the right way. Being able to make that case without sacrificing the future is a positive.
Plus when acting GM Rob Brzezinski said at the NFL Combine that he believes in building through the draft, it was music to everyone’s ears after the team had been shipping out draft capital year after year. That’s how they ended up in a place with so few young foundational players.
Or at least that was a reasonable take on the Vikings’ slow offseason until the middle of the day on Monday.
That’s when ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that New York Giants star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence has requested a trade.
The future is now, baby! If the moth is gonna get zapped, let it get zapped going after THIS GUY.
Mr. Lawrence is no stranger to the Vikings. In 2022, the large fella from Clemson did irreparable damage to Minnesota in the two matchups between the Vikings and Giants. In the first go-around, he registered seven QB pressures and made three run stops in a last-second Vikings victory. His PFF grade for the game was 90.2.
The second time he went against the Vikings, in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, was similar in terms of output with three hurries and four QB hits but one of those hurries resulted in Kirk Cousins checking down on fourth down to TJ Hockenson. On the play, Lawrence destroyed guard Ezra Cleveland, giving Cousins no chance to scramble.
The Vikings ran into Lawrence again in 2024. Sam Darnold’s first game went quite well but their attempts to block the veteran DT did not. He landed six QB pressures, including a sack, that day.
Even as Lawrence was being scrutinized last season for a severe drop in sack production, he got amped up to play the purple. He registered six more QB pressures that day. So that’s 24 in four games. That rate would basically win any pass rusher MVP if it could be sustained over a full season.
He’s not just good against the Vikings. He had 9.0 sacks in 2024 and was ranked by PFF as either the No. 1 or No. 2 defensive tackle in the NFL in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Don’t walk, run to trade for this guy, right?
Wait, what happened to the ethical offseason of wise cap management, retaining draft capital and setting up for the long haul?
So there is an argument for throwing caution to the wind. That starts with Kyler Murray. Had the Vikings not signed a two-time Pro Bowl quarterback who has the potential to return Kevin O’Connell’s passing game back to its rightful place, it wouldn’t make much sense to trade for an elite defensive player. But with Murray in place, the Vikings can say that they are in “win now” mode, especially with the rest of the roster largely constructed of veterans who were wearing “more is required” shirts last spring.
In the last two seasons, Brian Flores has squeezed every bit of blood from the defensive stone with a good group of defensive players. With Lawrence at DT, they probably have the third most talented defense in the conference along with the L.A. Rams and Seattle Seahawks.
With the Vikings getting some schedule advantages like playing nine games at home this year and going up against the meh NFC South, it’s not crazy to think that they could have a top five defense with Lawrence. If the offense ranks in the top 10, boom, legitimate contention.
That sounds like something that the Vikings would have wanted to do under Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, who built the roster to have a win-now window through 2026. One last big swing at this before it comes apart. Why not?
Well, if we can pull ourselves away from the bug zapper for a moment, there are some logistical issues.
That begins with the fact that Lawrence is already very expensive and he wants a new contract. His cap hits for the next two years are $26 million and $28 million and he’s due $42 million in cash. If the Vikings were to give him a new contract, it would undoubtedly be the highest number in the league, which currently belongs to Chris Jones at $32 million per season and came with $95 million guaranteed.
Now the Vikings could pull out an old trick and use void years through the end of days like Philadelphia just did with Jordan Davis. They gave him a three-year deal at $26 million per season with four void years attached to keep his cap hits to $8.5 million in 2026, $14 million in 2027 and $18 million in 2029.
Nothing is impossible with the way the salary cap works, it just depends on how much pain you’re willing to take down the road.
In a situation like this, the Vikings have to consider their long-term vision of the roster. Notice the New York Giants ranked 17th, 26th, 21st and 26th between 2022 and 2025 with Lawrence playing elite-level football. Even with the Brian Flores cheat code, defense’s are weak-link systems. You’re only as good as your weakest parts.
If we look where the defense stands in 2027, we see that Andrew Van Ginkel, Isaiah Rodgers and Blake Cashman are free agents, Byron Murphy Jr.’s cap hit jumps to $24 million, Jonathan Greenard may need to be traded either this offseason or next offseason. Basically the defense would be Dexter Lawrence, Jalen Redmond, Dallas Turner, Eric Wilson and ??????
The plan to rebuild the defense into 2027 was supposed to be through the draft. The Vikings have four top-100 picks and it would be justifiable to spend all of them on the defensive side of the ball.
That brings us to the price tag.
ESPN’s Jordan Raanan reported that the “general consensus” is that if the Giants are willing to trade Lawrence, the expected return is a “late-first round pick to second-rounder.”
Would No. 49 and change get the job done?
*(Moth starts heading back toward the bug zapper)*
A decision on whether to trade for Lawrence might come down to confidence.
Are the Vikings confident that with Lawrence in the mix they will be a top-five defense that has a serious argument as a Super Bowl contender?
Are the Vikings confident that they can build a defense in 2027 and beyond around Lawrence even if he’s getting $30 million per season?
On the other side of the coin…
Are they not confident in this draft?
Keep in mind, Lawrence was the 17th overall pick. The Vikings draft 18th. Even if their recent drafting hasn’t hit grand slams, the franchise has landed blue chip players in Justin Jefferson and Christian Darrisaw in the same ballpark of the draft as where they pick this year.
Sticking to the plan is probably the right idea. But trading for Lawrence would crank the energy surrounding the 2026 season up to 11 and he would be best player at that position for the Vikings since Kevin Williams.
It’s hard to deny that it could have awesome results, even if there is significant cost.
Buzzz…..
Not with a 50 ft longboat oar. He's like Cousins. Really expensive with moderate success overall which hamstrings you for any future.
Just say no....
Cap space
Salary cap
he was not so dominant last year 75.6 PFF and will be a year older. Redmond was a 72.7