I like the pick. The reason why I believe it was shrewd, is that the Vikings have very little money free now, but they will have a lot more in the future. So why not mortgage future draft picks in exchange for the opportunity to draft Turner who can start right now for much less than a pass rushing free agent. Yes, it will suck to not have the draft picks in 2025 and 2024 (now), but what are the odds that any of those picks from 2024 could start this year, and what are the odds of the future 2025 lower round picks contributing right away? The odds are not as high as Turner's expected contribution and the Vikings will have more money in 2025 and 2026 to pay free agents, now that Kirk the Cap Killer is gone (though we'll still be paying him for years), so the loss of picks won't hurt as much.
Cousins is off the cap after 2024, but it's a copout to blame the rest of the roster on him. It's really difficult to fill out a roster through UFA. Either you have to overpay for mediocre production, or you're getting guys for the minimum whose old team didn't want them and shouldn't be dressing on gameday. It's much better to do what Philly and SF did and use the cap space for a small number of proven stars.
Speaking of proven, in May every 1st round pick is on his way to the pro bowl, if not Canton; we don't know if Turner can start right away or will actually be good. Wilson, Mcdonald and van Ness were taken 7th, 13th and 15th last year, and averaged 0.0 starts and 3.5 sacks.
You're correct that Cousins cap hits from future years accelerated to this year--a whopping $28.5M--when he signed with the Falcons. But it certainly isn't a copout to blame the rest of the roster on him. First, Kirk is the one who insisted on being paid like a top-5 QB, despite the fact that he's generally a top-10-15 qb in talent, which left the Vikings with little money to spend on retaining key players and bringing in those key stars via free agency. Without the $28.5M in dead cap to Kirk and overpaying him every other year he's been a Viking, Hunter would likely be a Viking still. During his history as a Viking, Kirk had the following cap rankings in the NFL: 6th, 3rd, 22nd (actually higher, extension pushed to dead cap we are now paying), 2nd, 3rd, 21st (actually higher, extension pushed to dead cap). Kirk has never been the 2nd, 3rd or 6th best QB in the NFL, not even close.
The bigger problem is the payday loan approach to the cap, the smaller one is overpaying guys who don't make splash plays. You get a payday loan, your next cheque is lighter, which then requires painful fiscal restraint* or getting another loan. Spielman, and now KAM, are content to do the latter and borrow from future years' caps. Hunter (welp), Davenport and Dean effin' Lowry are on this year's cap.
Next year, Jones is gonna be on the cap but off the roster. The other UFA contracts borrow from future years' caps, too. I appreciate that most people read the sports pages for on-field things, instead of the business section. But, this is a continuing problem. You can pay a QB a market K and build a roster around him, but you have to be disciplined and pay as out go. KAM's had three offseasons now; this is who he is.
As for Cousins, I'm not the guy who begrudges a player getting every nickel he can, especially by betting on himself. Stafford has consistently been top of the market, and what did he win until he got McVay/Donald? QB salaries are about timing, not an actual ranking of who is best/who isn't. I understand the arguments against having signed Cousins or extending him (it's a different situation at 36 and coming off an Achilles), but any criticism should be directed at the front office.
*it's a useful analogy, but I'm criticizing roster building mistakes, not people who have to pay rent and feed their kids.
I love the pick. We get an elite Edge that was a top 10 in any other draft, at 17, on a rookie deal at what 4 mil a year? We use that cap savings to pay JJ's new deal then fill holes in free agency. Perfect.
What if they took Terrion Arnold at 23 instead of making the trade? That nets the #12 player on the consensus board, a press man corner that the defense needs. Oh well, hopefully Arnold is a bust for Detroit!
Regardless of all the analysis I like the pick. The previous moves by Kwesi to improve draft capital in the first round may be irrelevent. Turner was a perceived top ten pick and we got him. I hope it turns out as well as the Gobert trade. I've said in previous posts that if Turner turns out to be as good as Micah Parsons it was a terrific move and pick.
It's fair that picks shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. They turn into actual players, and so positional value matters a lot. Whatever draft chart one uses, none of them account for this. However, NBA roster construction is nothing like NFL roster construction; big swings are more problematic in a league where teams need cheap depth; day 2 picks are a key source thereof.
Maybe Turner is a generational edge rusher, and he wouldn't have made it to 23. Still, the rest of the league needs pass rushers, too and they collectively left Turner on the board at 17. For this to work out, it assumes KAM/his staff are better at evaluating talent than the league as a whole, and there isn't any evidence suggesting this is true.
The Texans trade never made sense, because it was premature and cost about $1.50 on the dollar. If KAM had first reached a framework with NE where it would take X to move up to 3, and then KAM went and got X to make the trade happen, ok. But there is nothing suggesting things were ever close with NE, or that NE was actually interested in trading down. Making the best of a bad situation doesn't excuse having created said bad situation.
I like the pick. The reason why I believe it was shrewd, is that the Vikings have very little money free now, but they will have a lot more in the future. So why not mortgage future draft picks in exchange for the opportunity to draft Turner who can start right now for much less than a pass rushing free agent. Yes, it will suck to not have the draft picks in 2025 and 2024 (now), but what are the odds that any of those picks from 2024 could start this year, and what are the odds of the future 2025 lower round picks contributing right away? The odds are not as high as Turner's expected contribution and the Vikings will have more money in 2025 and 2026 to pay free agents, now that Kirk the Cap Killer is gone (though we'll still be paying him for years), so the loss of picks won't hurt as much.
Cousins is off the cap after 2024, but it's a copout to blame the rest of the roster on him. It's really difficult to fill out a roster through UFA. Either you have to overpay for mediocre production, or you're getting guys for the minimum whose old team didn't want them and shouldn't be dressing on gameday. It's much better to do what Philly and SF did and use the cap space for a small number of proven stars.
Speaking of proven, in May every 1st round pick is on his way to the pro bowl, if not Canton; we don't know if Turner can start right away or will actually be good. Wilson, Mcdonald and van Ness were taken 7th, 13th and 15th last year, and averaged 0.0 starts and 3.5 sacks.
You're correct that Cousins cap hits from future years accelerated to this year--a whopping $28.5M--when he signed with the Falcons. But it certainly isn't a copout to blame the rest of the roster on him. First, Kirk is the one who insisted on being paid like a top-5 QB, despite the fact that he's generally a top-10-15 qb in talent, which left the Vikings with little money to spend on retaining key players and bringing in those key stars via free agency. Without the $28.5M in dead cap to Kirk and overpaying him every other year he's been a Viking, Hunter would likely be a Viking still. During his history as a Viking, Kirk had the following cap rankings in the NFL: 6th, 3rd, 22nd (actually higher, extension pushed to dead cap we are now paying), 2nd, 3rd, 21st (actually higher, extension pushed to dead cap). Kirk has never been the 2nd, 3rd or 6th best QB in the NFL, not even close.
The bigger problem is the payday loan approach to the cap, the smaller one is overpaying guys who don't make splash plays. You get a payday loan, your next cheque is lighter, which then requires painful fiscal restraint* or getting another loan. Spielman, and now KAM, are content to do the latter and borrow from future years' caps. Hunter (welp), Davenport and Dean effin' Lowry are on this year's cap.
Next year, Jones is gonna be on the cap but off the roster. The other UFA contracts borrow from future years' caps, too. I appreciate that most people read the sports pages for on-field things, instead of the business section. But, this is a continuing problem. You can pay a QB a market K and build a roster around him, but you have to be disciplined and pay as out go. KAM's had three offseasons now; this is who he is.
As for Cousins, I'm not the guy who begrudges a player getting every nickel he can, especially by betting on himself. Stafford has consistently been top of the market, and what did he win until he got McVay/Donald? QB salaries are about timing, not an actual ranking of who is best/who isn't. I understand the arguments against having signed Cousins or extending him (it's a different situation at 36 and coming off an Achilles), but any criticism should be directed at the front office.
*it's a useful analogy, but I'm criticizing roster building mistakes, not people who have to pay rent and feed their kids.
I love the pick. We get an elite Edge that was a top 10 in any other draft, at 17, on a rookie deal at what 4 mil a year? We use that cap savings to pay JJ's new deal then fill holes in free agency. Perfect.
So only 53% edges get 5 year option. What is the percentage of the draft picks the Vikings traded make it past 3 years?
What if they took Terrion Arnold at 23 instead of making the trade? That nets the #12 player on the consensus board, a press man corner that the defense needs. Oh well, hopefully Arnold is a bust for Detroit!
Regardless of all the analysis I like the pick. The previous moves by Kwesi to improve draft capital in the first round may be irrelevent. Turner was a perceived top ten pick and we got him. I hope it turns out as well as the Gobert trade. I've said in previous posts that if Turner turns out to be as good as Micah Parsons it was a terrific move and pick.
It's fair that picks shouldn't be looked at in a vacuum. They turn into actual players, and so positional value matters a lot. Whatever draft chart one uses, none of them account for this. However, NBA roster construction is nothing like NFL roster construction; big swings are more problematic in a league where teams need cheap depth; day 2 picks are a key source thereof.
Maybe Turner is a generational edge rusher, and he wouldn't have made it to 23. Still, the rest of the league needs pass rushers, too and they collectively left Turner on the board at 17. For this to work out, it assumes KAM/his staff are better at evaluating talent than the league as a whole, and there isn't any evidence suggesting this is true.
The Texans trade never made sense, because it was premature and cost about $1.50 on the dollar. If KAM had first reached a framework with NE where it would take X to move up to 3, and then KAM went and got X to make the trade happen, ok. But there is nothing suggesting things were ever close with NE, or that NE was actually interested in trading down. Making the best of a bad situation doesn't excuse having created said bad situation.