Initially, at the risk of turning myself permanently into a broken record, I think that this article is entirely right in arguing that it is likely that our OL will grade out poorly over the course of the full season, but I personally do not think the operative question is how the OL will perform over the course of the full season - I think the question is how good the OL can be by December and January. With such a young line, it is extremely unlikely that they are average (much less good or great) on September 12 against the Bengals. However, I am more concerned with how well the OL performs on January 2 against the Packers at Lambeau (which, incidentally, is French for "rags" - neat trivia fact of the day!). This is relevant because young OL tend to flounder substantially in the first half of their first season - take the aforementioned Andrew Thomas, who as mentioned had an extremely rough rookie campaign in 2020, arguably a worst case scenario for Darrisaw (being as any worse and he would be benched). Even Thomas had a substantial upswing in the second half, jumping from a 52 overall grade in the first 8 weeks to a 62.7 overall grade in the last 8 weeks), even being PFFs rookie of the week in week 13. Now obviously a 62.7 grade is still pretty dang poor, but the point remains that what will likely matter most is not how the team starts the year or average over the entirety of it but how they end it, particularly because of how much harder the DLs on the schedule will get once it gets to week 11 (after which the Vikes play GB twice, the Bears twice, SF, Pittsburgh, and the Rams), and in this specific instance there is reason to believe that our OL might start bad and end up okay or even good.
Beyond that, I honestly think that the performance of the OL is very likely to be the thing that determines the fate of Zimmer, Spielman, Cousins, et al.
If the defense is as good as we think that it can be (say top 5 by DVOA) but the OL is even worse than last year, I think that we are probably saying goodbye to all three of them. If our OL doesn't take a step, that basically guarantees a best-case-scenario of a first-round exit from the playoffs, which feels like enough that the Wilfs will want a restart. I mean look at the Steelers and the WFT from last year - defense, by itself, doesn't win playoff games anymore, even if you are at home.
However, even if the defense is merely, say, 14th in DVOA, and even if Cook is hurt for 8 games, and even if all of our kickers' legs all fell off (the Vikes have had the lowest FG% in the NFL in 2 of the last 3 years - that's gotta change just by random luck, right???), if our OL truly clicks into place I think that is what is needed for Kirk and ZimZam to surprise some teams and save some jobs, for better or worse (I am fine with Zimmer and Rick to get another shot, but I wouldn't mind sending Kirk on his way with a friendly pat on the back to usher him out the door).
The big wildcard in this is Kellen Mond. 95% chance he is fully irrelevant once the season starts, and 3% chance that if he does start that it is a disaster, but in the 2% chance that he starts and shows legit flashes and the Vikes somehow end the season 4-2 with him starting (and even if the Vikings don't win a playoff game with him), that is probably enough to save Rick and Mike. It would be basically identical to the 2018 Ravens, who began the season with Harbaugh bizarrely on the hot seat before Lamar saved his bacon with a 6-1 stretch to end the year. And yes, I am aware of how categorically ridiculous it is to compare MVP Lamar to 3rd round pick Kellen Mond, but this is more about trying to compare between two teams that have been recently floundering (incidentally Zimmer has more playoff wins and a higher winning percentage in the last 5 years than Harbaugh had in the 5 before Lamar) and how a rookie QB has a tendency to make everything look exciting again.
Agreed that early on the OL will be not impressive to start....But can it end strong? I do think unless Kirk gets hurt we will not see Kellen (maybe exceptions in blowouts where they give him a possession to get his feet wet). But our IOL was so crap last year we should improve on it (though hard to see Darrisaw being better than Reiff early on in the year
Yeah, agreed, the biggest reason why Kellen Mond won't be a factor is just because Kirk is never not in a game, and Kirk is too good for the team to bottom out such that they will put in Mond over a healthy Kirk. Heck, even when the Ravens started out 4-4 they didn't start Lamar - it took Flacco getting hurt before Lamar got onto the field. Unless Kirk gets hurt (which is unlikely and also which of course I do not wish to happen), Kellen Mond is virtually guaranteed to not see the field.
Also, agreed, Darrisaw is almost certainly going to be a notable downgrade early on, and this is particularly true in the passing game. Last year Reiff had amazing pass-block games against great DEs (Khalil Mack and Zadarius Smith in particular), and graded out to have a final PFF grade of 71.4.
That said, PFF assigns relatively little value to how good you are at run-blocking. Like 95% of your grade as an OL comes down to pass-blocking. You could be the best run-blocking tackle in the history of the NFL, but if you aren't at least average in pass blocking you are going to have an ass PFF grade. Last year Reiff was quite bad at run-blocking, with a grade of around 60. There was a reason why the majority of our run plays were to the right of our OL away from Reiff - because Reiff is objectively below-average at run blocking.
That said I will personally always take an OL that is good at pass blocking and poor at run blocking over one that is good at run blocking and poor at pass blocking, but still it bears mentioning that we can expect that Darrisaw will basically immediately be better at run blocking right out of the gate this year by virtue of his athletic profile. This also fits with young OL, who struggle with pass-pro way more than run blocking, as run blocking is an aggressive action where "all" that they have to do is to execute their assignment via their athletic gifts, whereas in pass-pro they have to sit back and use their intelligence and technique to react to the myriad things that a defense can throw at them.
There are two very unlikely things that have to happen for Mond to hit: Cousins has to get hurt, which he doesn't, and a third round QB has to do something almost as unlikely--be good. If it's a 5% chance that Cousins gets hurt, and a 10% chance that Mond can actually play on Sundays, that's a 0.5% chance Mond plays well this year.
It's ironic, but after KK's play calling, Davis's performance has the chance to have the biggest impact on this season's range of outcomes. As noted, Hill is fine. Dozier/Samia would have to improve to be liabilities. If Davis can't win the job, and barring someone who isn't on the roster now, stopping interior pass rush will be insurmountable. If Davis does wins it and is solid, that helps Bradbury/Cleveland and now we might have the best OL since '09.
Fair, though when I said that 2% I wasn't thinking that that was the likelihood that Mond would be good (I think that your 0.5% chance is a good approximation of that), I was thinking something that that was the chance that he was tantalizing enough to get fans hopes up (and therein save the jobs of Zimmer and Rick). Something along the lines of a Jalen Hurts-esque performance. Remember, Jalen Hurts completed 52% of his passes, went 1-3, had a quarterback rating of 78, a QBR of 41, a PFF grade of 56, and lots of Eagles fans are PUMPED for him (though granted their coach was fired after the year, so that kind of defeats my argument, lol). Personally I think that Kellen Mond could do at least that well given our weapons and defense and how QB-friendly our scheme is.
Plus, that was the only SB winning coach in Iggles' history. Their fans are excited, but I haven't seen anything from Hurts suggesting he can be a viable starter.
I wish we had Rodgers or Mahomes instead of Cousins, but since they aren't on the menu, I'm extremely leery of giving up a QB who is good enough to win with for someone who is likely to be worse--which includes Mond and the majority of potential replacements.
Yep, I think that Hurts will flame out in a year or two as a starter. I could see him wandering around the league as a promising backup, but I would be shocked if he truly turns into something.
I don't want to do something like trade away Cousins after the 2021 season just because Mond is due a chance at the starting job or anything like that, but if the coaches tell me that Mond is a legit option then I am game. After all, the Vikings coaches haven't been wrong yet about a QB on their roster - each time they have made the correct decision as to who to sign of the available options and who to let go, IMO.
A more interesting question is whether they let Cousins go in order to trade away the 26th pick in the draft and a future first in order to get to around the 12th pick to take a QB that is slipping (similar to what the Bears did last year). I am currently of the opinion that it is functionally impossible to win the superbowl unless you have an objective top 5 QB or a QB on a rookie deal, so I would say to do the trade, but it is clearly a matter of opinion.
I've read and watched over the years how the Vikings have positioned themselves in this predicament... limited financials to invest in top-tier talent, drafting rookies mid rounds instead of higher, structuring offense based on X's and O's instead of actual people on the field... I'm all for putting the rookies out there and finding a way. It's the only legit option that will teach the coaching staff, team owners, and players how to manage with what they can afford/acquire.
The thing I remember about Cleveland is that his first two games as a guard were above average. After he turned his ankle, he was not the same player. I am hopeful that he will improve in season two. Overall, it may take a couple of years for the unit to gel into a solid offensive line. The problem is that Zimmer, Spielman and Cousins may not have two years to have that happen.
The Vikings are subjecting themselves to a ton of potential criticism if this offensive line doesn't work out this year. They're in the bottom 3 (again) in spending on the offensive line and to Sam and Matt's oft-repeated point: Rookie o-linemen are rarely impactful in a positive fashion.
Due to his playstyle and position, I do think it's possible that Davis could be a positive this season, assuming he wins a starting job. I like the Derrisaw pick, but I'm considerably more bearish on his performance this year. While I could see him exceeding Reiff's poor run blocking performance last year, I'm very skeptical that Derrisaw can match Reiff's pass blocking.
And I continue to be mystified by Cleveland playing at guard. Do the Vikings offensive line coaches actually LOOK at the bodies of their players? Cleveland is built like a tackle. He's most certainly not built like a guard and while that doesn't preclude him from becoming a good guard, I cannot for the life of me figure out what possessed them to move him to the Guard spot other than their odd predilection for shuffling offensive lineman.
I can see a scenario where the Vikings' o-line reaches the dizzying heights of "average" this season, but it feels like a long shot given the number of things that would have to go very right for that to happen.
Enjoyed the writeup and think from next year on we will have a good OL... Time for my ritualistic mention that Oli might get a shot at guard (they started cross training him during the season).. I know he projects as a tackle but so did Ezra!
Initially, at the risk of turning myself permanently into a broken record, I think that this article is entirely right in arguing that it is likely that our OL will grade out poorly over the course of the full season, but I personally do not think the operative question is how the OL will perform over the course of the full season - I think the question is how good the OL can be by December and January. With such a young line, it is extremely unlikely that they are average (much less good or great) on September 12 against the Bengals. However, I am more concerned with how well the OL performs on January 2 against the Packers at Lambeau (which, incidentally, is French for "rags" - neat trivia fact of the day!). This is relevant because young OL tend to flounder substantially in the first half of their first season - take the aforementioned Andrew Thomas, who as mentioned had an extremely rough rookie campaign in 2020, arguably a worst case scenario for Darrisaw (being as any worse and he would be benched). Even Thomas had a substantial upswing in the second half, jumping from a 52 overall grade in the first 8 weeks to a 62.7 overall grade in the last 8 weeks), even being PFFs rookie of the week in week 13. Now obviously a 62.7 grade is still pretty dang poor, but the point remains that what will likely matter most is not how the team starts the year or average over the entirety of it but how they end it, particularly because of how much harder the DLs on the schedule will get once it gets to week 11 (after which the Vikes play GB twice, the Bears twice, SF, Pittsburgh, and the Rams), and in this specific instance there is reason to believe that our OL might start bad and end up okay or even good.
Beyond that, I honestly think that the performance of the OL is very likely to be the thing that determines the fate of Zimmer, Spielman, Cousins, et al.
If the defense is as good as we think that it can be (say top 5 by DVOA) but the OL is even worse than last year, I think that we are probably saying goodbye to all three of them. If our OL doesn't take a step, that basically guarantees a best-case-scenario of a first-round exit from the playoffs, which feels like enough that the Wilfs will want a restart. I mean look at the Steelers and the WFT from last year - defense, by itself, doesn't win playoff games anymore, even if you are at home.
However, even if the defense is merely, say, 14th in DVOA, and even if Cook is hurt for 8 games, and even if all of our kickers' legs all fell off (the Vikes have had the lowest FG% in the NFL in 2 of the last 3 years - that's gotta change just by random luck, right???), if our OL truly clicks into place I think that is what is needed for Kirk and ZimZam to surprise some teams and save some jobs, for better or worse (I am fine with Zimmer and Rick to get another shot, but I wouldn't mind sending Kirk on his way with a friendly pat on the back to usher him out the door).
The big wildcard in this is Kellen Mond. 95% chance he is fully irrelevant once the season starts, and 3% chance that if he does start that it is a disaster, but in the 2% chance that he starts and shows legit flashes and the Vikes somehow end the season 4-2 with him starting (and even if the Vikings don't win a playoff game with him), that is probably enough to save Rick and Mike. It would be basically identical to the 2018 Ravens, who began the season with Harbaugh bizarrely on the hot seat before Lamar saved his bacon with a 6-1 stretch to end the year. And yes, I am aware of how categorically ridiculous it is to compare MVP Lamar to 3rd round pick Kellen Mond, but this is more about trying to compare between two teams that have been recently floundering (incidentally Zimmer has more playoff wins and a higher winning percentage in the last 5 years than Harbaugh had in the 5 before Lamar) and how a rookie QB has a tendency to make everything look exciting again.
Agreed that early on the OL will be not impressive to start....But can it end strong? I do think unless Kirk gets hurt we will not see Kellen (maybe exceptions in blowouts where they give him a possession to get his feet wet). But our IOL was so crap last year we should improve on it (though hard to see Darrisaw being better than Reiff early on in the year
Yeah, agreed, the biggest reason why Kellen Mond won't be a factor is just because Kirk is never not in a game, and Kirk is too good for the team to bottom out such that they will put in Mond over a healthy Kirk. Heck, even when the Ravens started out 4-4 they didn't start Lamar - it took Flacco getting hurt before Lamar got onto the field. Unless Kirk gets hurt (which is unlikely and also which of course I do not wish to happen), Kellen Mond is virtually guaranteed to not see the field.
Also, agreed, Darrisaw is almost certainly going to be a notable downgrade early on, and this is particularly true in the passing game. Last year Reiff had amazing pass-block games against great DEs (Khalil Mack and Zadarius Smith in particular), and graded out to have a final PFF grade of 71.4.
That said, PFF assigns relatively little value to how good you are at run-blocking. Like 95% of your grade as an OL comes down to pass-blocking. You could be the best run-blocking tackle in the history of the NFL, but if you aren't at least average in pass blocking you are going to have an ass PFF grade. Last year Reiff was quite bad at run-blocking, with a grade of around 60. There was a reason why the majority of our run plays were to the right of our OL away from Reiff - because Reiff is objectively below-average at run blocking.
That said I will personally always take an OL that is good at pass blocking and poor at run blocking over one that is good at run blocking and poor at pass blocking, but still it bears mentioning that we can expect that Darrisaw will basically immediately be better at run blocking right out of the gate this year by virtue of his athletic profile. This also fits with young OL, who struggle with pass-pro way more than run blocking, as run blocking is an aggressive action where "all" that they have to do is to execute their assignment via their athletic gifts, whereas in pass-pro they have to sit back and use their intelligence and technique to react to the myriad things that a defense can throw at them.
There are two very unlikely things that have to happen for Mond to hit: Cousins has to get hurt, which he doesn't, and a third round QB has to do something almost as unlikely--be good. If it's a 5% chance that Cousins gets hurt, and a 10% chance that Mond can actually play on Sundays, that's a 0.5% chance Mond plays well this year.
It's ironic, but after KK's play calling, Davis's performance has the chance to have the biggest impact on this season's range of outcomes. As noted, Hill is fine. Dozier/Samia would have to improve to be liabilities. If Davis can't win the job, and barring someone who isn't on the roster now, stopping interior pass rush will be insurmountable. If Davis does wins it and is solid, that helps Bradbury/Cleveland and now we might have the best OL since '09.
Fair, though when I said that 2% I wasn't thinking that that was the likelihood that Mond would be good (I think that your 0.5% chance is a good approximation of that), I was thinking something that that was the chance that he was tantalizing enough to get fans hopes up (and therein save the jobs of Zimmer and Rick). Something along the lines of a Jalen Hurts-esque performance. Remember, Jalen Hurts completed 52% of his passes, went 1-3, had a quarterback rating of 78, a QBR of 41, a PFF grade of 56, and lots of Eagles fans are PUMPED for him (though granted their coach was fired after the year, so that kind of defeats my argument, lol). Personally I think that Kellen Mond could do at least that well given our weapons and defense and how QB-friendly our scheme is.
Otherwise, agreed entirely.
Plus, that was the only SB winning coach in Iggles' history. Their fans are excited, but I haven't seen anything from Hurts suggesting he can be a viable starter.
I wish we had Rodgers or Mahomes instead of Cousins, but since they aren't on the menu, I'm extremely leery of giving up a QB who is good enough to win with for someone who is likely to be worse--which includes Mond and the majority of potential replacements.
Yep, I think that Hurts will flame out in a year or two as a starter. I could see him wandering around the league as a promising backup, but I would be shocked if he truly turns into something.
I don't want to do something like trade away Cousins after the 2021 season just because Mond is due a chance at the starting job or anything like that, but if the coaches tell me that Mond is a legit option then I am game. After all, the Vikings coaches haven't been wrong yet about a QB on their roster - each time they have made the correct decision as to who to sign of the available options and who to let go, IMO.
A more interesting question is whether they let Cousins go in order to trade away the 26th pick in the draft and a future first in order to get to around the 12th pick to take a QB that is slipping (similar to what the Bears did last year). I am currently of the opinion that it is functionally impossible to win the superbowl unless you have an objective top 5 QB or a QB on a rookie deal, so I would say to do the trade, but it is clearly a matter of opinion.
I've read and watched over the years how the Vikings have positioned themselves in this predicament... limited financials to invest in top-tier talent, drafting rookies mid rounds instead of higher, structuring offense based on X's and O's instead of actual people on the field... I'm all for putting the rookies out there and finding a way. It's the only legit option that will teach the coaching staff, team owners, and players how to manage with what they can afford/acquire.
The thing I remember about Cleveland is that his first two games as a guard were above average. After he turned his ankle, he was not the same player. I am hopeful that he will improve in season two. Overall, it may take a couple of years for the unit to gel into a solid offensive line. The problem is that Zimmer, Spielman and Cousins may not have two years to have that happen.
The Vikings are subjecting themselves to a ton of potential criticism if this offensive line doesn't work out this year. They're in the bottom 3 (again) in spending on the offensive line and to Sam and Matt's oft-repeated point: Rookie o-linemen are rarely impactful in a positive fashion.
Due to his playstyle and position, I do think it's possible that Davis could be a positive this season, assuming he wins a starting job. I like the Derrisaw pick, but I'm considerably more bearish on his performance this year. While I could see him exceeding Reiff's poor run blocking performance last year, I'm very skeptical that Derrisaw can match Reiff's pass blocking.
And I continue to be mystified by Cleveland playing at guard. Do the Vikings offensive line coaches actually LOOK at the bodies of their players? Cleveland is built like a tackle. He's most certainly not built like a guard and while that doesn't preclude him from becoming a good guard, I cannot for the life of me figure out what possessed them to move him to the Guard spot other than their odd predilection for shuffling offensive lineman.
I can see a scenario where the Vikings' o-line reaches the dizzying heights of "average" this season, but it feels like a long shot given the number of things that would have to go very right for that to happen.
Enjoyed the writeup and think from next year on we will have a good OL... Time for my ritualistic mention that Oli might get a shot at guard (they started cross training him during the season).. I know he projects as a tackle but so did Ezra!