Are the Vikings' guard woes bad luck or bad process?
Are the Vikings' guard woes bad luck or bad process?
How have the Vikings continually struggled to solve their left guard problem?
By Matthew Coller
The Minnesota Vikings find themselves in a familiar place along the offensive line this offseason.
Following the signings of star defensive players Dalvin Tomlinson and Patrick Peterson, they are short on the cap space and options to vastly improve a group up front that ranked 29th by Pro Football Focus in pass blocking and 18th in run blocking in 2020.
Even if they create more cap space, numerous other free agent linemen have already landed elsewhere, leaving a bevy of questions about how their positions of need will be filled. Will they move second-round pick Ezra Cleveland to left tackle or leave him at guard? Will Rashod Hill get a shot as a starter? Can they find a quality starter in the free agent bargain bin?
Barring a trade that lands them a star lineman (which isn’t impossible with Orlando Brown Jr. on the market), the Vikings will need to go hunting in the coming days for at least one free agent linemen.
That might not be all they do. Signing someone like remaining free agents Forrest Lamp or Austin Blythe should not preclude them from addressing the trenches in the draft. Without a big score in free agency, mock drafters everywhere are bumping O-line up their lists for the Vikings in the first round. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein have tabbed them linemen with the 14th overall pick.
You could have written some form of the previous three paragraphs every offseason of the Mike Zimmer era. Each year has featured uncertainty about which positions linemen will be playing, which bargain free agents will compete for jobs and whether someone in the draft can make a difference.
The lack of continuity up front has been remarkably consistent. Next year will mark the sixth straight season with a new pair of guards. Brandon Fusco from 2015 to 2016 is the only individual player to have played the most snaps at a guard spot for two seasons in a row and he was still moved from left to right guard in 2016.
On many occasions the O-line shuffling has come down to the final days of training camp. Last year Aviante Collins and Dakota Dozier battled for left guard throughout the summer and in 2017 the opening day O-line didn’t play a single preseason together.
While next season’s offensive line still has a chance to improve in the coming weeks, it appears that leveling up by huge strides would take either a savvy signing or home run draft pick.
In other words: They’ll need a stroke of good luck.
But recent years have not provided the Vikings with many good fortunes at guard. From injuries to draft picks and/or signings going bust, things haven’t gone their way.
So what’s causing the never-ending game of musical chairs on the interior of the offensive line? Have they just gotten bad breaks? Made bad decisions? Been forced to invest less because of cap issues? Or is it a combination of everything?
Let’s have a look at the guards’ performances through the years and how the Vikings chose players to fill those positions to see if we can discern why things have not gone their way and what they can learn from the past…
2015
The results:
LG - Brandon Fusco
PFF grades: 66.0 overall (53rd of 64), 48.7 pass blocking (63rd), 71.2 run blocking (38th)
Fusco was an above average road grader in the running game and capable pass blocker in 2013 but in 2014 he suffered an injury and played only three games. His grades never returned to 2013 form and in 2015 he ranked as the second worst pass blocker in the NFL.
RG - Mike Harris
PFF grades: 69.8 overall (32nd), 75.2 pass blocking (19th), 65.3 run blocking (43rd)
Harris was a backup for the first three years of his career but had a breakout season in 2015 in his first opportunity as a starter, ranking as one of the top 20 pass blockers at his position.
The process:
The Vikings drafted Fusco in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. Harris was undrafted. He signed after being cut by the Chargers in 2014. Both players were low-risk acquisitions who gave the team more than their draft status would have suggested.
2016
The results:
LG - Alex Boone
PFF grades: 67.1 overall (43rd of 64), 73.5 pass blocking (36th), 61.9 run blocking (49th)
Boone allowed just 16 QB pressures on an offensive line that battled injuries from the outset of the 2016 season. He did not impact the run game in the way the Vikings hoped when they signed him.
RG - Brandon Fusco
PFF grades: 63.5 overall (52nd), 62.3 pass blocking (53rd), 62.4 run blocking (48th)
Fusco had better results as a pass blocker largely playing with Pat Shurmur’s quicker passing offense.
The process:
Boone signed for four years, $26.8 million and $10 million guaranteed. The former 49er was an All-Pro in 2012. The Boone addition remains the only “major” signing at the guard position of the Zimmer era. Fusco changed positions from the left to right side.
Mike Harris retired due to a congenital brain condition.
2017
The results:
LG - Nick Easton
PFF grades: 57.5 overall (50th of 63), 64.9 pass blocking (39th), 57.0 run blocking (47th)
Easton won the job in camp and gave the Vikings an extra level of athleticism in their new run scheme and screen game, which provided more value than the PFF grades suggest.
RG - Joe Berger
PFF grades: 74.0 overall (11th), 79.0 pass blocking (13th), 68.4 run blocking (12th)
In his new position, Berger was absolutely terrific in 2017. He played a career high snap count and allowed just 23 pressures. He gave the Vikings their best guard play of the era.
The process:
Boone was released after missing a portion of camp due to injury and the team changing running schemes.
Easton was acquired in a trade for Gerald Hodges.
Berger was a backup until becoming the full-time center in 2015. He moved to guard in 2017 when the Vikings drafted Pat Elflein.
2018
The results:
LG -Tom Compton
PFF grades: 62.4 overall (34th of 56), 60.2 pass blocking (45th), 65.3 run blocking (18th)
Compton gave the Vikings replacement-level pass protection allowing Kirk Cousins to be sacked seven times.
RG - Mike Remmers
PFF grades: 61.1 overall (36th), 61.1 pass blocking (41st), 61.1 run blocking (30th)
Remmers struggled mightily to adapt to guard and tied for the third most pressures in the league in 2018.
The process:
Nick Easton was lost to a back injury in August. The Vikings elected to stay with Compton despite the fact he’d never played more than 650 snaps or graded higher than 60.5 in pass blocking.
Remmers moved from right tackle to right guard. He’d never played right guard before.
They acquired Brett Jones from the Giants but only used him at center to fill in for Elflein for three weeks.
2019
The results:
LG -Pat Elflein
PFF grades: 64.7 overall (25th of 63), 51.3 pass blocking (56th), 67.6 run blocking (12th)
In his first year at guard, Elflein was steamrolled as a pass blocker. He provided above average run and screen blocking.
RG - Josh Kline
PFF grades: 61.5 overall (37th), 67.7 pass blocking (41st), 62.3 run blocking (34th)
Kline was the definition of average, giving the Vikings reliably passable play.
The process:
After a brutal year at center in 2018 the Vikings drafted Garrett Bradbury and moved Elflein to guard.
They signed Kline to a three-year, $15.5 million deal with $7.25 million guaranteed. He was a “second wave” of free agency signing having been cut by the Titans. Kline had an impressive career with New England prior to playing in Tennessee.
2020
The results:
LG - Dakota Dozier
PFF grades: 44.6 overall (60th of 60), 36.7 pass blocking (60th), 52.3 run blocking (52nd)
Dozier graded as the league’s worst starting guard.
RG - Ezra Cleveland
PFF grades: 66.2 overall (26th) , 52.0 pass blocking (51st), 67.5 run blocking (22nd)
Cleveland had plenty of welcome-to-the-NFL moments but also flashed his high end athleticism, especially in the run game.
The process:
As Brett Jones again sat on the bench, a player with no previous full-time starting experience in Dozier played all 16 games.
Following a college career at left tackle, the rookie Cleveland was forced into action at right guard after Elflein got hurt and Samia struggled mightily.
Kline was surprisingly cut in the offseason but never found a home, suggesting he may have been unable to play due to injury.
Themes of the process
The overall results of the Vikings’ guard play from 2015-2020 are as follows:
— One player ranked in the top 15 overall by Pro Football Focus in one season (Joe Berger, 2017).
— Eight of 12 guard seasons ranked at least 40th in pass blocking grade
— Even with an emphasis on run blocking, guards ranked in the top 20 only three times
Some processes that repeated over the years:
— Nearly every year someone was asked to change positions.
— Multiple players were called to starting duty having never in their career been asked to start. Some of those players worked out in Harris, Berger and Easton.
— No matter how much a guard struggled, he was never replaced except for Cleveland taking over for Samia (and technically speaking Samia got injured).
— The two players who signed multiple-year contracts were both past their primes and neither made it past a single season.
— The league got harder. A grade of 70.0 in 2020 would put a guard in the top 15. In 2015, a 70.0 grade would have ranked 36th. The degree of difficulty jump for guards may be due to more teams using edge rushers over guards in pass rushing situations and putting more emphasis on defensive tackles who can get after quarterbacks.
— Three players (Harris, Berger, Kline) retired and one (Easton) suffered a season-ending injury. They were four of the better guards the Vikings had in the Zimmer era.
— The Vikings rarely spent draft capital on guards. Here’s a list of the guards they drafted from 2015-2020:
2020 — second round — Ezra Cleveland (played tackle in college)
2020 — seventh round — Kyle Hinton
2019 — fourth round — Dru Samia
2018 — sixth round — Colby Gossett
2017 — fifth round — Danny Isidora
The Vikings also rarely poured cap space into the position. Here’s where they ranked in total O-line spending (via OverTheCap.com):
2021: 32nd
2020: 32nd
2019: 28th
2018: 21st
2017: 30th
2016: 3rd
2015: 3rd
Here are the single-season cap hits for guards who were not on their rookie contracts:
Brandon Fusco — $3.5 million (2015), $4.0 million (2016)
Alex Boone — $6.7 million
Joe Berger — $1.7 million (2016), $2.1 million (2017)
Tom Compton — $900,000
Mike Remmers — $4.6 million
Josh Kline — $3.1 million
Conclusions on process versus luck
The Vikings have had their fair share of bad luck along the offensive line. Nobody would have expected Harris or Kline’s careers to come to early ends or Easton to be lost for the entire 2018 season due to back surgery. Any one of those guards could have had long Vikings careers and solidified their positions.
But in terms of making your own luck, well, the Vikings did not do much of that at guard either. They have spent very little capital on the position over the years in the draft or free agency. They haven’t taken swings at players in the middle-to-late rounds and even chose multiple specialists rather than taking lottery tickets at guard despite the consistent need.
They asked tackles to play guard, centers to play guard, right guards to become left guards and career backups to become starters. And then they often committed to those players at those spots.
Of course, there’s only so much money to go around when pouring cap space into a quarterback and numerous defensive players but they may have overlooked the NFL’s increase in interior pressure in recent years and the susceptibility of their quarterback to such issues. Bridgewater and Keenum were mobile and Bradford had a quick release. Cousins does not possess either of those skills.
Now it appears the processes are going to be repeated unless the Vikings select a guard higher in the draft or pull off a trade. Their options for this offseason at guard appear to be A) leaving Ezra Cleveland at guard and either signing a cheap veteran or drafting someone to start as a rookie B) waiting and acquiring someone from another team in a camp cut or trade C) moving Cleveland to left tackle and doing some combination of signing/drafting both guard spots.
Where does that leave them? Probably with Cousins still facing pressure up the middle.
However, what we’ve seen from the likes of Berger and Easton is that the position doesn’t have to be emphasized with huge dollars and top draft picks if the under-the-radar players work out to combine for average results. The bar isn’t as high as it might be for QB, receiver, defensive end, cornerback, etc. to hold down the fort.
The Vikings still have a chance to find those types of players. Doing it with past backups, out-of-position linemen and late draft picks might not get it done.
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This is the type of Chess Master analysis I enjoy most! I wonder how much of a negative impact Tony Sparano's passing had on the process?
Awesome depth and analysis, Matthew, though you could have just titled the article "The Shit Show" and we all would've known what it was about. The point that we're caught in a time loop is so dead-on. And that it's hard to know what they might do because they don't seem to know what they're doing.
That said, we do know they draft for needs big time so if they do pick at 14 I can believe they'd take Darrisaw over Paye if the choice is presented. Because they can slog by with Weatherly & Wonnum and grab someone in the third (Turner, Weaver, Tryon, Sample?) at DE, and Darrisaw is a complete beast in the run game so even Zim can go for that.
As bad as this O-line is they could still come back in third and take a Meinerz, Hudson, or Green (if Meinerz is still available. Bonus that he also plays center. Just saying in a couple years that could be handy. If Rick is still in charge he'll give Bradbury a fifth year option to show it was a good pick. New guy isn't going to care though I guess Franchise tag of centers is cheap, which is why you only take All-Pro caliber ones at 18). Tough to expect a third round rookie to play even average, but ten bucks any would be better than Samia. I know you liked Ben Cleveland in your sim Saturday night, but I don't see how that works (let me refer you to this great article I just read on the Vikings Guards problems and their cutting of one Alex Boone...)