I think scheduling is going to matter a lot for these teams this year. Outside of the Packers, all of these teams are going into the season with some major changes and it might take a few weeks for them to get settled into a rhythm. Caleb and the Bears feel like they could struggle if they have to face a bunch of good teams right out of the gate, and the same could probably be said for the Vikings. Really don’t want to see JJ have to face the Eagles, Commanders, and Ravens right out of the gate. I know we say this every year, but with the schedules being as tough as they are, it’s going to feel like you’re in a huge hole if you get off to a slow start, and I just think that’s going to add a ton of pressure on the young QBs and new coordinators in Detroit.
I do wonder about Caleb... Not his physical talents... But I remember when we (well the Vikings) were beating him to a pulp and it seemed like he went into a fetal position for like 20 seconds... Maybe he does not have the mental makeup to hack it.
Well, I shudder to put any faith in O/U numbers. While this article is fun and the analysis is great, it's just an awfully inaccurate stat. Per preseason O/U stats from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/, the standard deviation of O/Us since 2000 is +/- 2.7 games. So the 95% confidence interval is 5.4 games. Last year Vegas O/Us hit exactly 16 Overs and 16 Unders for this stat. That is their job. But 15 of the 32 teams missed their O/U by 3 games or more in 2024. A full 1/4th of the league (8 of 32 for those from Wisconsin) this stat missed by 4.5 games or more. For reference sake, since 2000 (799 team seasons) the 2024 Vikings, 2004 Steelers, and 2004 Chargers are tied with the most games over projection at 7.5. The 2013 Texans are by far the worst since 2000 at -8.
I think scheduling is going to matter a lot for these teams this year. Outside of the Packers, all of these teams are going into the season with some major changes and it might take a few weeks for them to get settled into a rhythm. Caleb and the Bears feel like they could struggle if they have to face a bunch of good teams right out of the gate, and the same could probably be said for the Vikings. Really don’t want to see JJ have to face the Eagles, Commanders, and Ravens right out of the gate. I know we say this every year, but with the schedules being as tough as they are, it’s going to feel like you’re in a huge hole if you get off to a slow start, and I just think that’s going to add a ton of pressure on the young QBs and new coordinators in Detroit.
Next year will be wild in the NFC
I do wonder about Caleb... Not his physical talents... But I remember when we (well the Vikings) were beating him to a pulp and it seemed like he went into a fetal position for like 20 seconds... Maybe he does not have the mental makeup to hack it.
Well, I shudder to put any faith in O/U numbers. While this article is fun and the analysis is great, it's just an awfully inaccurate stat. Per preseason O/U stats from https://www.pro-football-reference.com/, the standard deviation of O/Us since 2000 is +/- 2.7 games. So the 95% confidence interval is 5.4 games. Last year Vegas O/Us hit exactly 16 Overs and 16 Unders for this stat. That is their job. But 15 of the 32 teams missed their O/U by 3 games or more in 2024. A full 1/4th of the league (8 of 32 for those from Wisconsin) this stat missed by 4.5 games or more. For reference sake, since 2000 (799 team seasons) the 2024 Vikings, 2004 Steelers, and 2004 Chargers are tied with the most games over projection at 7.5. The 2013 Texans are by far the worst since 2000 at -8.