Analyzing the NFC North over-unders
Intern Clay takes a look at the factors that will determine whether the North teams hit the over or not
By Clay Petry
Last week, ESPN Bet gave the football world something to talk about when it released its post-free agency over-unders for every team. So let’s have a look at their markers and the questions that will determine whether they hit the overs…
Green Bay Packers
2025 Vegas line: 9.5
Clay’s prediction: Under
The Packers' 11-win season last year was largely a result of good fortune, particularly with the timing of Jordan Love's injuries. When Malik Willis stepped in for Love, he faced three bad football teams—the Titans, Jaguars, and Colts—which made him look more competent than he likely is. Without those three wins, the Packers would have missed the playoffs.
Love is known for his hot-and-cold streaks. He started this past year by throwing an interception in 8 straight games, but he didn’t throw a single interception in the final 7 games. Similarly, in 2023, Love had a 7-game stretch where he totaled 10 interceptions. However, in the next 8 games, he only threw one. The good news for Packers fans is that he tends to heat up towards the end of the year, but if he continues to struggle with injuries, developing consistency on offense will be tough, especially with WR1 Christian Watson expected to miss most of next season. With their tough schedule next season, they can not afford another slow start from Love.
The Packers didn’t have a very eventful offseason so far either. They didn’t land a star receiver, and their big move was to overpay for Aaron Banks. Despite being the 33rd highest graded guard by PFF at 65.4, the Packers are paying him 19 million per year, which makes him the 6th highest-paid guard in football. The math isn’t mathing on that move, and their other signings, such as Mecole Hardman and Nate Hobbs, are unlikely to make much of an impact on the win total.
Another concern for the Pack is their ability to perform in crucial moments. Matt LaFleur has a 3-5 playoff record, and they suffered a pivotal loss to the Lions in Week 18 of 2022, with a playoff spot on the line. In that game, Quay Walker was ejected for the second time that season for shoving an opposing team’s staff member. When you factor that in, along with Jaire Alexander’s frequent antics and Josh Jacobs’ media comments, it raises questions about the leadership within the locker room.
It remains unproven whether they can overcome adversity and navigate tough situations. The upcoming season will be challenging, with 9 games against teams who had 10+ wins last year, plus matchups with the Bengals and a much-improved Bears team twice. It’ll be intriguing to see how they handle the inevitable low points of the season.
However, it’s not all bad in Green Bay. Although the leadership might be questionable, the talent surely isn’t. The Packers have a top-10 defense according to Pro Football Network, largely because they have standout players at every level. Rashan Gary is up front, Edgerrin Cooper leads the linebackers, and Xavier McKinney is in the secondary.
The Packers also have one of the best head coaches in the league. Despite his playoff struggles, there’s no denying that LaFleur one of the best play-callers on the planet, having revamped Aaron Rodgers and guided Love to the postseason in his first two years. Even though their biggest need is a top-tier receiver, LaFleur has still managed to create plays with the ones he has. A perfect example was their 2023 wildcard game against the Cowboys, where they had three catches for 20+ yards in their first four drives, all from wide-open receivers. LaFleur can make his offense look like it’s running routes on air at times, and if Love is on one of his hot streaks, the Packers could be a dangerous team.
Chicago Bears
2025 Vegas line: 8.5
Clay’s prediction: Over
The Bears have the most question marks going into next season, so this prediction comes along with a list of things that need to happen for the Bears to reach more than 8.5 wins.
The first is that Ben Johnson needs to be a good head coach. We have seen him transform the Lions’ offense from a laughing stock into a unit that can score at will, but translating strong X’s and O’s into leading a whole team is never a sure thing. Having Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator should help as he brings veteran leadership and knows how to run an elite defense, but Johnson must prove he can run a team — especially one that struggled with culture under Matt Eberflus — and not just an offense.
Chicago only won 5 games last season, but their biggest issue was coaching. You could argue that Eberflus and Thomas Brown cost their team at least 4 games last season against the Commanders, Seahawks, once against the Lions, and once against the Packers. In all four of those games, the Bears got in a position to win or at least tie the game and never took advantage largely because of poor clock management. Johnson comes from the tutelage of Dan Campbell, who was wildly aggressive in his game management and had a ton of success playing that way.
The second thing that must happen for Chicago to hit the over is that their new free-agent signings/future draft picks must make an immediate impact. The Bears added All-Pro Joe Thuney along with quality starters Jonah Jackson and Drew Dalman. They also signed veteran Grady Jarrett to shore up the defensive line. Both the offensive and defensive line could still add more depth, and they could use a potential upgrade at running back, but the rest of the roster looks ready to be competitive. With four of the first 100 picks in this year’s draft, the Bears are set up to fill the final holes on the roster.
But there are question marks about whether Thuney can continue to have a massive impact at age 32 and whether Jackson and Dalman can bounce back from injury. Jarrett is also over 30 years old and is coming off his worst career season by PFF grade.
The most important thing for the Bears to over-achieve is Caleb Williams needing to show that he’s the quarterback he was billed to be as the No. 1 overall pick in 2024. He showed flashes of being dangerous last season, but will need to improve his processing ability if the Bears want to have success. If he fails to improve, it won’t matter that Ben Johnson is the coach. It won’t matter that they revamped the offensive line. The cycle of drafting a quarterback, hiring a new head coach, and shipping them both out after a few seasons will be primed to continue. However, if he can be the first elite quarterback in Bears history (post-Sid Luckman, anyway), then they can finally get over the hump and get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Detroit Lions
2025 Vegas line: 10.5
Clay’s prediction: Over (but it’s close)
The biggest question for the Lions next season is: How will their team perform without Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn? It’s difficult to predict how this team will fare considering they have an incredible roster but lost their all-star coaching staff.
If we look back to 2016, the Atlanta Falcons produced the No. 1 offense in the NFL and made it to the Super Bowl. Although the roster looked almost identical going into 2017, the Falcons lost both of their coordinators in the offseason. The next year they went 10-6 and won a playoff game, but dropped to 15th in scoring got bounced in the second round. Then, in 2018, they ran it back, still with almost the same roster they had in 2016 and only went 7-9 and missed the playoffs, which seemed to be the official close of their Super Bowl window.
We can also look back to the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022. They went 14-3 but came up short in the Super Bowl. They also had to replace both coordinators going into the 2023 season but held together the majority of the roster. In 2023, they went 11-6 but dropped from third to seven in offense and got smacked by the Buccaneers in the Wild Card game 32-9. The Eagles then replaced both of their coordinators again in 2024, which worked out for them as they are the reigning champions.
Both teams demonstrated that losing successful coordinators can significantly impact team performance. Even with a great roster, maintaining success after significant coaching changes is far from guaranteed. It’s uncertain how the Lions will adapt.
Another thing to consider is that we’ve only seen Jared Goff thrive when supported by two of the best play-callers in the game. 2016 was Goff’s rookie year, and he only started 7 games, but he averaged just 155 yards per game and ended the season with more interceptions than touchdowns. When McVay was hired the following year, Goff immediately turned things around and looked like a new player. Then, when he was traded to Detroit, Goff struggled, only tallying 3,245 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. In 2022, Goff’s numbers spiked to 4,438 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions when Ben Johnson took over.
It’s not exactly a fair comparison because of how bad the ‘21 Lions were (intentionally, no less) but it’s also not a given that he’ll maintain the exact same level of play under a new, unproven offensive coordinator. John Morton, despite being an NFL coach since 1998, has only one year of experience as an NFL offensive coordinator. In 2017, as the Jets’ OC, they finished 5-11 with one of the league’s worst offenses.
That said, there's no denying that Dan Campbell has instilled a tough, bite-the-kneecap mentality in Detroit. He has done an incredible job bringing the franchise to places that it hasn’t been since Wayne Fontes was patrolling the sidelines in a Starter jacket.
The roster also hasn’t changed much since last year. The Lions still have a variety of game-changers on offense with Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon Ra St-Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam Laporta. Not to mention their top-tier offensive line. On defense, they lost Carlton Davis but replaced him with DJ Reed, who could be an upgrade at a cheaper price. They also lost Za’Darius Smith, but it seems like he was just a short-term rental until Hutchinson got healthy. The rest of the group is returning, and we can expect them to be hungry to reintroduce themselves next season.
No matter how talented they are, this upcoming season will come down to health and the two new coordinators. If they can step up and carry the torch, the Lions could be serious contenders once again.
Minnesota Vikings
2025 Vegas line: 8.5
Clay’s prediction: Over
As a head coach, Kevin O'Connell has only had one season with fewer than 10 wins, and that was in 2023 when both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson missed half the year due to injury. Despite that, they still won 7 games.
Typically you wouldn't predict a team with a first-time quarterback to win the toughest division, especially with a difficult schedule, but this isn't your typical team or first-time quarterback. J.J. McCarthy might be reminiscent of the NBA’s Ben Simmons, who missed his first season but used that time on the sidelines to make the mental adjustment to the pros and then dominated when him returned to action, winning Rookie of the Year. McCarthy has had a full year to develop under one of the best offensive minds in football, which should help him seamlessly fit into the offense. Of course, he'll make rookie mistakes and won’t be perfect, but it isn’t crazy to think he could be close to Sam Darnold’s level of play from the jump.
Kevin O’Connell should be the main source of confidence for McCarthy’s success. Over the past three seasons only the Chiefs and Lions have more passing yards than the Vikings, despite them playing 6 different QBs.
A benefit for McCarthy is that he doesn’t have to be a superstar this year because the Vikings made it a priority this offseason to improve what was already one of the best rosters in football. They extended Byron Murphy Jr. and Theo Jackson while adding Ryan Kelly, Will Fries, Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, and Isaiah Rodgers in free agency. They even traded for running back Jordan Mason to add a little more grit to the backfield in short-yardage situations.
Where there are some questions beyond McCarthy’s assimilation into the NFL is that all the additions come along with a “but” attached to them. Will Fries is one of the better rising guards in football, but he’s coming off a season-ending tibia injury. Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are known to bring pressure up the middle, but they are both over the age of 30 and coming off major injuries. Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason could make for an excellent backfield, but Jones set a career high in touches last year and Mason battled injury.
If all those “buts” end up not mattering, the Vikings will make huge improvements on both sides of the ball. Brian Flores will have even more tools at his disposal to keep offenses guessing. Meanwhile, O’Connell's revamped interior offensive line should not only protect McCarthy better but also enhance the running game, which has been a point of focus for improvement.
With one of the league’s best rosters on paper, an outstanding coaching staff, and a culture that’s been carefully cultivated, it’s hard not to envision another 10+ win year for the Vikings.
The bottom line:
The NFC North is a division filled with unpredictability and intrigue. Each team has clear strengths but also major questions to answer. There’s no shortage of potential challengers, and the division could very well see a few twists and turns over the course of the season. One thing is certain: this year’s NFC North race will be one to keep your eye on.
Clay Petry is the Purple Insider intern this semester. He goes to Penn and played football there. He also grew up as a Bears fan, waiting for them to find a quarterback
I think scheduling is going to matter a lot for these teams this year. Outside of the Packers, all of these teams are going into the season with some major changes and it might take a few weeks for them to get settled into a rhythm. Caleb and the Bears feel like they could struggle if they have to face a bunch of good teams right out of the gate, and the same could probably be said for the Vikings. Really don’t want to see JJ have to face the Eagles, Commanders, and Ravens right out of the gate. I know we say this every year, but with the schedules being as tough as they are, it’s going to feel like you’re in a huge hole if you get off to a slow start, and I just think that’s going to add a ton of pressure on the young QBs and new coordinators in Detroit.
Next year will be wild in the NFC
I do wonder about Caleb... Not his physical talents... But I remember when we (well the Vikings) were beating him to a pulp and it seemed like he went into a fetal position for like 20 seconds... Maybe he does not have the mental makeup to hack it.