Great point that Harris and Smith will be critical with an extremely inexperienced CB corps. I forgot about that. Well worth the money to keep the lid on the defense over the top.
I have to say early on I was open to seeing the Vikings let go of one of these safeties for good draft capital- but having both of these outstanding talents will prove very useful to support and teach the young DB class.
How much do you think the uncertainty of the season impacts the Vikings ability/desire to negotiate a long-term deal here vs letting Harris play on the Franchise Tag? Does the unknown impact on the cap going forward significantly play into their decisions on him and/or Cook or do you think they continue with their plan and trust the cap won't be decreased?
That’s really hard to know but teams went forward with this offseason spending the same way they have in the past so they must either expect to have a similar cap or to come to an agreement with the NFLPA on salaries like we’re going to see from the other leagues. Could become an interesting battleground soon but I think the Vikings will play both situations as if nothing’s going to change. Great Q
Matthew, do you think franchising Harris was compromise by Zimmer and the FO as FA was approaching? The team knowing they’d lose Rhodes, Waynes and Alexander, so they decide to keep their safety group together in order to make up for a young CB group as you outlined.
Could be. I think they realized that they weren’t going to get great trade value for him so it just made more sense to keep him and work around it. Why give away a talented player in his prime for basically nothing if you don’t have to
Matthew, while corner play appears to be more important to pass defense than anything else, the play of individual corners from year to year is highly variable. Is the year to year play of safeties more stable such that its a better move to pay safeties top of the market contracts instead of corners? Or is the value of safety play on pass defense too limited to merit the expense?
Great question Marcus. The play of safeties from year to year certainly has some of the same variation because we're talking about small sample target numbers. But we know for sure Smith is an All-Pro caliber player and we're looking at a growing sample of Harris being terrific so it's a pretty safe bet that he remains good. Safeties might be undervalued considering how opponents are constantly attacking them. Think about the deep shots the Vikings had last year. In this instance, giving Zimmer the tools to do everything he wants schematically has value that's hard to calculate
How many more years do you think Harrison Smith has left with the Vikings, and could Harris be the replacement? Are there any signs of Smith's performance dropping? Is he the sort of guy who would take a pay cut to stay with the Vikings in 2022 or 2023?
Really good question Jeff. He was still a top 5 safety by PFF last year and based on his smarts I don't think he's a guy that suddenly falls off the table. My guess is that he's very good for the next few years and after that it depends on his body. Pay cuts are always tough to know. If he stays on the same deal, it won't be all that expensive a few years from now
It will be a sad day when he is no longer a Viking. Hopefully he stays healthy and will sign one more deal with the Vikings and retire in his mid-late 30s.
It's still possible but Harris's value is so much higher than any guard, even with a QB who struggles with interior pressure. PFF's WAR had Harris worth 0.65 wins last year and Thuney 0.23. I think they have the young players to fill the position more effectively than last year whereas they have nobody at safety outside of Harris
I share that same thought, but I am just not convinced that they dont need to find talent at other positions and cap space. Like you, I still wish they could take back the Barr signing of last year.
I believe they would. I know that they won't for Griffen because they re-did his deal but I can't find anywhere that says that players who were franchise tagged do not get a compensatory pick. If anyone else finds a different answer, let me know
Great point that Harris and Smith will be critical with an extremely inexperienced CB corps. I forgot about that. Well worth the money to keep the lid on the defense over the top.
I have to say early on I was open to seeing the Vikings let go of one of these safeties for good draft capital- but having both of these outstanding talents will prove very useful to support and teach the young DB class.
Matthew,
How much do you think the uncertainty of the season impacts the Vikings ability/desire to negotiate a long-term deal here vs letting Harris play on the Franchise Tag? Does the unknown impact on the cap going forward significantly play into their decisions on him and/or Cook or do you think they continue with their plan and trust the cap won't be decreased?
That’s really hard to know but teams went forward with this offseason spending the same way they have in the past so they must either expect to have a similar cap or to come to an agreement with the NFLPA on salaries like we’re going to see from the other leagues. Could become an interesting battleground soon but I think the Vikings will play both situations as if nothing’s going to change. Great Q
Matthew, do you think franchising Harris was compromise by Zimmer and the FO as FA was approaching? The team knowing they’d lose Rhodes, Waynes and Alexander, so they decide to keep their safety group together in order to make up for a young CB group as you outlined.
Could be. I think they realized that they weren’t going to get great trade value for him so it just made more sense to keep him and work around it. Why give away a talented player in his prime for basically nothing if you don’t have to
Matthew, while corner play appears to be more important to pass defense than anything else, the play of individual corners from year to year is highly variable. Is the year to year play of safeties more stable such that its a better move to pay safeties top of the market contracts instead of corners? Or is the value of safety play on pass defense too limited to merit the expense?
Great question Marcus. The play of safeties from year to year certainly has some of the same variation because we're talking about small sample target numbers. But we know for sure Smith is an All-Pro caliber player and we're looking at a growing sample of Harris being terrific so it's a pretty safe bet that he remains good. Safeties might be undervalued considering how opponents are constantly attacking them. Think about the deep shots the Vikings had last year. In this instance, giving Zimmer the tools to do everything he wants schematically has value that's hard to calculate
How many more years do you think Harrison Smith has left with the Vikings, and could Harris be the replacement? Are there any signs of Smith's performance dropping? Is he the sort of guy who would take a pay cut to stay with the Vikings in 2022 or 2023?
Really good question Jeff. He was still a top 5 safety by PFF last year and based on his smarts I don't think he's a guy that suddenly falls off the table. My guess is that he's very good for the next few years and after that it depends on his body. Pay cuts are always tough to know. If he stays on the same deal, it won't be all that expensive a few years from now
It will be a sad day when he is no longer a Viking. Hopefully he stays healthy and will sign one more deal with the Vikings and retire in his mid-late 30s.
What are your thoughts about Harris still being moved in an player for player trade, such as with NE for Joe Thuney?
It's still possible but Harris's value is so much higher than any guard, even with a QB who struggles with interior pressure. PFF's WAR had Harris worth 0.65 wins last year and Thuney 0.23. I think they have the young players to fill the position more effectively than last year whereas they have nobody at safety outside of Harris
I share that same thought, but I am just not convinced that they dont need to find talent at other positions and cap space. Like you, I still wish they could take back the Barr signing of last year.
Do the Vikes get a compensatory pick in 2022 if he signs a gigantic contract with another team in the off-season following this year?
I believe they would. I know that they won't for Griffen because they re-did his deal but I can't find anywhere that says that players who were franchise tagged do not get a compensatory pick. If anyone else finds a different answer, let me know