By Matthew Coller
Normally I wait until Friday to answer fan questions but I received a Twitter/X DM from a Vikings fan named Bailey that touched on a subject that I have been wanting to dive deep into after the way things have started for the Vikings offense. Here’s what Bailey wrote:
Still catching up on yesterday’s post game show so forgive me if you spent time on this already, but what are your thoughts on the time to hold the ball for the QBs in this offense?
Is it primarily a function of below average QB play from Wentz and McCarthy that is causing a very high sack rate? Not sure if data backs this up too but I feel like there were moments last year w/ Darnold holding the ball excessively. Or is it a function of the o line and their injuries, which is causing chaos and high pressure and sack rates? Or a function of KOC’s offense not allowing the more simple, quick plays to be made?
I watched part of the Giants game yesterday and it was interesting to see how simple they made the game for Dart and getting rid of it quickly.
Perhaps a pie chart of blame amongst those three variables would be helpful! I just feel like we have so many negative plays like sacks that totally wreck our drives, which is why we also led the league in punts coming into this week.
To add some additional context to Bailey’s question: Heading into this weekend’s matchup with the Cleveland Browns, the Vikings are allowing the highest sack rate in the NFL (14.0%), having been sacked 18 times already in four games.
It has felt like during Kevin O’Connell’s coaching tenure that sacks have been an issue. At the same time, there has been trend of defenses taking the reins back from offenses over the last few years. The 2023 and 2024 seasons featured the highest sack rates league wide since 2001 and net yards per pass attempt (which factors for sacks) is at its lowest this year since 2006.
The numbers only sorta back up the issues with KOC’s offenses taking sacks. Since 2022, the Vikings are 7th in total sacks and sack yards lost but they are only 15th in the percentage of drop-backs that feature sacks. So we can immediately attribute part of the reason that it feels like the Vikings are getting sacked often is because they pass more often than the average team.
They especially pass more often on third down. The Vikings have the fourth most passing plays on third down since 2022, which has resulted in the sixth most sacks. Minnesota has 179 more third down passes than the lowest in the league (Philadelphia) over the last four seasons.
There are a few explanations for that. The running games during the KOC era have been average at best and in the bottom tier at worst, setting up more third-and-long passing situations. In terms of average yards to go on third down, they are only 15th. Teams with elite QBs like Cincinnati, Buffalo and KC are at the top with the shortest third down yards to the sticks along with running teams like the Packers, Lions and Colts.
Those third downs provide far more opportunities for opponents to blitz. Per TruMedia, the Vikings have been sacked on 14.8% of drop-backs when blitzed on third down since 2022.
This year 10 of the 18 sacks have taken place on third down.
You have to think that the Vikings’ starting O-line never playing together this year and their top combination in terms of snaps only spending 32% of plays together is a factor in struggling to stop third down blitzes.
Part of O’Connell’s philosophy overall is aggressiveness. Having won the Super Bowl with Matthew Stafford, he isn’t one to dial up too many plays that have receivers running short of the sticks on third down. From TexansCap on Twitter/X, Carson Wentz and JJ McCarthy rank among the two QBs who are least throwing short of the sticks on third down.
Naturally, if the idea is to push the ball past the sticks on third down, quarterbacks are going to be more prone to taking sacks.
When we look at some of the route combinations via TruMedia, we can see this effect at play.
Overall it has worked. The Vikings are 12th in first-down percentage on third-down passes since 2022 at 39.2%. (That’s only 1.7% behind the top five, by the way). And considering that most of the top teams have had consistent QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Jordan Love and Joe Burrow, you could call it a success to be 12th with all the different QBs over the years.
Here are the routes run on all of Wentz’s sacks.
As you can see, there are a lot of vertical routes that are running past 10 yards and not a ton of routes between the hashes.
But simply being aggressive on third downs doesn’t give us all the answers. The Vikings are still getting sacked 7.1% of the time on first down from 2022 to 2025, per TruMedia. That’s above the league average on all downs.
Is there more data we can use to pin down why that might be?
We can start by trying to identify how much of the pressure is due to offensive line, QB play and scheme.
Despite some weaknesses over the years from different linemen, the overall performances by the Vikings pass blocking have ranged between OK and good. Even this year the pass blocking grade is mid-pack.
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