Which Vikings opponents improved the most?
The strength of schedule data is always useless so let's try to eyeball it for the Vikings
By Matthew Coller
Last year, I did an experiment with claims about strength of schedule.
I took three different ways of calculating it and tried to work my way through whether any of them had any type of predictive nature. I looked at SOS based on last year’s record, SOS based on the betting market and SOS based on a yearly NFL.com about the easiest and hardest schedules of the following year.
You are probably not shocked to find out that none of them were consistently accurate in terms of which teams actually ended up with the hardest schedules by the end of the season.
Certainly there are times where the different models turn out to be correct but there was no way of doing it that turned out correct year after year.
The reason I’m tell you this tale is that the NFL posted a graphic on social media with SOS data suggesting that the Vikings have the 11th hardest schedule in the NFL next year and the Detroit Lions are 27th. More likely than not, this means nothing.
It does stand to some reason that the Lions received the fourth place schedule by losing on Christmas day and the third place schedule includes some tougher franchises historically. Rather than play San Francisco, the Lions get to go up against the Arizona Cardinals, for example. And rather than play the Indianapolis Colts, Detroit gets to match up against Tennessee.
The fourth-place schedule has a good chance of assisting Detroit. At the same time, there are endless numbers of factors that help or hurt teams on a weekly basis. There is absolutely no way to determine how things will play out when the clubs actually match up.
The other thing that SOS fails to factor when it’s being done by last year’s record is the team’s offseason. Some teams are very similar and some teams are wildly different.
So with the schedule coming out this week, let’s rank the most and least improved teams on the Vikings schedule from 2025 to 2026
1 — New York Jets
How much did they improve?
A lot.
The biggest change for the Jets will be at quarterback. New York added veteran QB Geno Smith via a trade with the Raiders. While Smith’s 2025 season was nothing short of a nightmare, he was 27-22 in Seattle between 2022-2024 with a 95.5 quarterback rating. Even if he ends up somewhere in the middle between his Seahawks days and Raiders performance, it will still be a big upgrade over the Jets, who ranked 30th in Expected Points Added via pass last year.
The Jets were also players in free agency, grabbing veteran LB Demario Davis from the Saints, former Bengal Joseph Ossai, OLB Kingley Enagbare, DT David Onyemata and CB Nahshon Wright. They also traded for veteran DB Minkah Fitzpatrick.
In the draft, New York landed at least four potential impact players. They took three first-rounders in edge rusher David Bailey, TE Kenyon Sadiq and WR Omar Cooper and then landed CB D’Angelo Ponds in the second round. All of them should be expected to play quickly.
How will it impact the Vikings?
We should not expect the Jets to be a good team by any means but they have flipped a very large percentage of their roster in a positive direction and added a QB who should be expected to give them a chance to win games on a weekly basis.
They are going to be a much tougher matchup this year than last year, even if the Vikings should still be expected to beat them.
2 — Washington Commanders
How much did they improve?
Significantly.
The Commanders went wild during the 2025 offseason and it blew up in their face but they are ready to get hurt again by big-name free agents and aggressive moves.
Washington signed edge rusher Odafe Oweh, who has 17.5 sacks over the last two seasons, along with edge rusher K’Lavon Chaisson and LB Leo Chenal to bolster the defense. On the offensive side, RB Rashaad White, TE Chig Okonkwo and two depth WRs in Dyami Brown and Van Jefferson.
In the draft, Washington had the No. 7 overall draft pick and selected star Ohio St. LB Sonny Styles. They also picked a quality WR prospect in Antonio Williams.
The biggest areas of improvement for the Commanders aren’t just their free agency or draft acquisitions, it’s getting back quarterback Jayden Daniels from missing most of the season due to injury and hiring former Viking DC Daronte Jones. The Washington defense was a complete disaster last season and Jones has the ability to turn it back in the right direction.
How will it impact the Vikings?
Minnesota ran Washington out of the building last year. That’s going to be much, much tougher this year if Daniels is back to full strength and Washington has an aggressive and deceptive defense with edge rushing talent to get after the passer. They can’t be overlooked despite the 2025 debacle.
3 — Carolina Panthers
How much did they improve?
Quite a bit on defense.
The Panthers were one of the highest spending teams in free agency, landing pass rusher Jaelan Phillips (28.0 sacks in five seasons), breakout linebacker Devin Lloyd, several depth players on offense and running back AJ Dillon.
In the draft, they went with a young offensive lineman in the first round Monroe Freeling and then got two likely Day 1 rotational players in DT Lee Hunter and WR Chris Brazzell II.
How will it impact the Vikings?
Carolina hasn’t had a top 10 defense since they went to the Super Bowl in 2015 and they haven’t even been in the top half of the league since 2018. This year they have a shot at that after scoring two of the top free agents in the NFL. They have been developing players over the last few seasons and should take a step forward from their 8-9 playoff season in 2025.
They aren’t likely to fall under the Super Bowl favorite category and Young is still likely to have a tough time with Brian Flores’ defense but Carolina is much more formidable than the last time the Vikings saw them in 2023.
4 — New Orleans Saints
How much did they improve?
Big time around their quarterback.
The Saints liked what they saw in Tyler Shough during limited duty last year and spent the offseason doing everything they could to help him out. They signed RB Travis Etienne, guard David Edwards and tight end Noah Fant and then spent the No. 9 overall draft pick on wide receiver Jordyn Tyson.
On the defensive side, they lost Demario Davis and will likely be without Cam Jordan but they made one of the best low-key additions this offseason in LB Kaden Elliss and drafted powerful DT Chrisen Miller.
Let’s also not forget the Saints signed punter Ryan Wright away from the Vikings.
How will it impact the Vikings?
It’s not completely clear yet. That really depends on Shough. Last season he went 5-4 with 10 touchdowns, six INTs and a 91.3 QB rating but he also took 31 sacks. If he takes another step forward toward becoming the Saints’ franchise QB, then the additional weapons could end up playing a huge role in New Orleans becoming relevant again. If he doesn’t improve, then it might be a big meh.
5 — Buffalo Bills
How much did they improve?
Quite a bit, if….
The Bills have been scrutinized over the last couple seasons for not making enough effort to acquire wide receivers for Josh Allen. Well, they made a big play for one this offseason by trading for Chicago receiver DJ Moore.
They stuck with the veteran route, adding edge rusher Bradley Chubb on a three-year contract along with CB Dee Alford and CJ Gardner-Johnson.
In the draft they also improved defensively with edge player TJ Parker and CB Davison Igbinosun.
The Bills might have made their team significantly better if the veterans still have something in the tank. Moore’s production dropped by 48 receptions from 2024 to 2025 and Chubb had a quiet 8.5 sack season for Miami after missing 2024 with an ACL tear. Alford and Gardner-Johnson have been good in the past but it’s not clear if they can still move the needle. The Bills will also need immediate contributions from their second-rounders.
How will it impact the Vikings?
If it works, the Bills are scary. Last year they were good enough to reach the brink of championship weekend and now they have more to work with. However, we already knew the Bills were going to be a handful for the Vikings.
6 — San Francisco 49ers
How much did they improve?
A little, depending on…
The 49ers lost Jauan Jennings in free agency but they added Mike Evans. If he has anything left in the tank, he and Brock Purdy/Kyle Shanahan could be a dangerous combination.
San Francisco also added to their defense with LB Dre Greelaw returning and CB Nate Hobbs providing depth.
The 49ers’ draft has been criticized because they “reached” to select De’Zhaun Stribling. He is a raw wide receiver but has the speed to be a scary weapon right away.
How will it impact the Vikings?
It’s always a battle when the Vikings play the 49ers. If Evans is healthy and Stribling is getting the ball in his hands and making plays, the offense could have more layers than the group that struggled vs. the Vikings in 2023 and 2024 but they have largely remained the same fundamental team for years now.
7 — New England Patriots
How much did they improve?
Some, unless another big move arrives…
The Patriots decided to move on from Stefon Diggs and they replaced him with Romeo Doubs, which isn’t likely to move the needle. They added a couple quality defensive players in Kevin Byard and Dre’Mont Jones.
That wouldn’t put New England particularly high on the list but there’s an assumption that reports of AJ Brown being traded the Patriots will come to fruition after June 1. If that’s the case, then the Patriots are going to be a deeper offense in terms of weapons.
The Pats didn’t get a bunch of instant impact players in the draft by picking a development tackle in the first and then defensive end Gabe Jaces in the second and TE Eli Raridon in the second.
How will it impact the Vikings?
If the Patriots do get AJ Brown, putting him and Doubs against the Vikings’ secondary is going to be a lot to handle. They were already expecting a battle with Drake Maye but Brown has been a Viking killer for a long time.
8 — Detroit Lions
How much did they improve?
It’s tough to find big gains, unless…
The Lions didn’t do as much as we might have expected considering how their timetable to win a championship is waning. They drafted a starting offensive tackle in Blake Miller, brought in a legitimate starting center in Cade Mays and then added a bundle of depth veterans like Rock Ya-Sin, tackle Larry Borom, tight end Tyler Conklin and CB Roger McCreary.
The only way that this offseason can turn into a game changer for Detroit is if new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is significantly better than John Morton. That’s absolutely possible considering how much Morton’s group dropped off and Dan Campbell ended up calling the plays last year.
How will it impact the Vikings?
The Lions and Vikings are always going to have knock-down, drag-out contests with the amount of skill that Detroit possesses and the violence of the Vikings defense. But nothing happened this offseason that would make Minnesota more afraid of the Lions.
9 — Green Bay Packers
How much did they improve?
Like life in Wisconsin, not much changed…
Last year was the big, all-in, let’s-go-crazy move by the Packers when they traded for Micah Parsons. That meant that 2026 was bound to be a more quiet offseason.
Green Bay’s biggest addition was Javon Hargrave, who might find a more similar role to what he’s done in the past with the Packers. He still has something in the tank.
The Pack lost Doubs in free agency and are hoping that Matthew Golden will take a big step in 2026.
How will it impact the Vikings?
The Vikings’ matchups with the Packers will be dictated by two things: Whether Jordan Love makes exceptional plays and if Micah Parsons wrecks the game. That was true before the offseason and true now.
10 — Chicago Bears
How much did they improve?
Less than you would have thought…
Usually when a team realizes that its top draft pick quarterback is ready to thrive, they push the gas pedal down and go all-in with trades and free agent signings but that was really not the case with the Bears. In fact, they may have lost more than they gained. Trading DJ Moore should allow some other weapons to step into the limelight but there’s no guarantee that Moore’s role can completely be replaced.
The Bears acquired center Garrett Bradbury and drafted Logan Jones to replace Drew Dalman but that’s going to be a tall task.
On defense, they replaced turnover machines Nahshon Wright and Kevin Byard with first-round pick Dillon Thieneman and ex-Seahawk Coby Bryant.
Somehow the defensive line was basically left alone. That’s odd considering it was a major weakness.
How will it impact the Vikings?
Going into the offseason, it looked like the Bears were going to be a nightmare for the future. After a ho-hum offseason, it doesn’t quite seem that way. Chicago seems to be banking heavily on Caleb Williams taking a big step forward in Ben Johnson’s offense.
11 — Tampa Bay Bucs
How much did they improve?
Very little unless the rookies are good…
The Bucs losing Mike Evans, even at his advanced age, is a gut punch to the offense. They did spend a first-round pick on Emeka Egbuka last year and that could help mitigate the pain of the Bucs legend leaving. But in terms of free agency or trades, it was crickets. Tampa Bay also lost solid RB Rachaad White.
They added linebacker Alex Anzalone and it’s hard to find any other needle movers.
Tampa Bay landed possibly the steal of the draft in Rueben Bain.
How will it impact the Vikings?
Baker Mayfield’s decline last year went along with him battling through injury but it also might have been that the Bucs peaked a couple years ago with Liam Coen calling plays and they may be on the other side of the hill. If that’s the case, it doesn’t impact the Vikings’ strength of schedule much because they looked like a fading team in 2025.
12 — Indianapolis Colts
How much did they improve?
It’s hard to find any improvement
The big move for Indy was re-signing Alec Pierce to a crazy contract. They were forced to move Michael Pittman Jr. and didn’t have a first-round pick because they sent it to New York for Sauce Gardner.
How will it impact the Vikings?
Daniel Jones’ hot start to 2025 made the Colts briefly relevant but they are approaching the mediocre Hall of Fame and this offseason didn’t change that.
13 — Atlanta Falcons
How much did they improve?
Zero.
You could argue that hiring Kevin Stefanski is the biggest improvement but that’s questionable. It’s not clear that Raheem Morris was a bad head coach, rather he had a tough break at quarterback with Kirk Cousins’ 2024 struggles and then Michael Penix Jr. getting hurt in 2025.
In terms of roster, the Falcons adding Tua Tagovailoa might make some type of impact if he finds any of his previous self. Based on recent performance, that’s tough to see.
How will it impact the Vikings?
The Vikings should be a much better team than Atlanta when they face off, even if the Falcons have some weapons.
14 — Miami Dolphins
How much did they improve?
Don’t look directly at it.
Miami tore their roster down to the studs but signed Malik Willis. May the football gods have mercy on his soul.
How will it impact the Vikings?
The Dolphins look to be aiming for the No. 1 overall pick. You write in an automatic win. That’s quite a bit different from the mildly decent Dolphins team from 2024.
ADDITIONAL NOTE: The Vikings have requested more GM candidate interviews. Jonathan Jones of CBS reported that it could be several weeks before the process concludes.
