Which teams should want Sam Darnold?

There could be a half dozen teams interested in his services.

© Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

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By Matthew Coller

The NFL insiders are poking and prodding for any type of information on whether the Minnesota Vikings want to bring Sam Darnold back and so far they haven’t turned up anything definitive.

Jason La Canfora wrote in the Washington Post that another team’s GM thinks the Vikings will keep Darnold on the franchise tag. ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler wrote that the Vikings “have not made a firm determination” yet and “won’t mortgage their future” for Darnold.

On the surface it would appear that playing Darnold on the franchise tag for 2025 would avoid “mortgaging the future” with a big-money contract because he would be off the books after one year and they could work around his expected $41 million cap hit for a single season the same way they did with $71 million in dead cap in 2024 but every action has a reaction and in the case of the salary cap it would mean structuring deals for incoming free agents in a way that created challenges down the road. And it’s down the road that JJ McCarthy is supposed to be The Guy. With contracts for players like Jonathan Greenard, Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw and TJ Hockenson already set up to play now and pay later, it could potentially cause discomfort with the cap in 2026 and 2027 even with McCarthy on his rookie deal.

The Vikings have to weigh multiple factors at once into Darnold Decision 2025. The first is how they view McCarthy’s recovery physically and whether head coach Kevin O’Connell believes he is ready to rock ‘n roll right now. Remember, O’Connell is the guy whose quote on the front of his memoir will say, “teams fail quarterbacks more than quarterbacks fail teams.” Next year the Vikings are in line to play a murder’s row schedule and O’Connell might feel that asking the 22-year-old QB who hasn’t thrown an actual pass in a real game since January 9, 2024, to play 17 games on a team with sky high expectations would be too much to put on his shoulders right away.

If that’s the case, the Vikings would be best served by signing Darnold to a short-term contract extension like the three-year, $75 million contract Geno Smith signed in 2023 that came along with a $10 million cap hit in the first year. (We have to adjust that number for inflation and assume it will be over $100 million for Darnold but the concept remains the same). That would allow the Vikings to retain his services in 2025 and then have a potentially tradable contract in 2026 if they believe McCarthy is ready.

The problem with that route is that Darnold has to agree to the deal. He has to be OK with the strong possibility that he could be sent out via trade after 2025. That doesn’t seem ideal from his perspective, though a partial no-trade clause could help that angle along (as it once did for Kirk Cousins).

If O’Connell is comfortable with where McCarthy stands as QB1, that leads the Vikings to an entirely different set of questions regarding Darnold. Namely whether they should try to franchise tag him and trade him to another team or let him walk in free agency in exchange for a 2026 compensation pick.

The sheer number of teams that are in need of a quarterback lends itself to the Vikings leaning toward the tag-and-trade option.

How much could they get in return? There isn’t a ton of recent history to guide us in tag-and-trade situations but the last time it happened the Patriots were able to get a second-round pick for Matt Cassel. In a year in which the Vikings only have four draft picks (including the Cousins comp pick), an addition second-rounder would be a welcome sight.

Will anyone give them a second-round pick though?

Let’s look at the candidates and their potential motivations…

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders haven’t won a playoff game since 2002 and they are already on their fifth head coach since moving to Las Vegas in 2020. That’s rough. The hiring of Pete Carroll was a pretty clear signal that they are desperate to get the franchise out of the darkness. The odds are pretty strongly against Carroll being able to do that with most of the quarterbacks who are available like Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson or Mac Jones. If Matthew Stafford is on the market that would make some sense but Darnold is much younger, has much fewer miles on his body and is more likely to be a multi-year starter for Carroll to build around quickly.

The Raiders have 10 picks this year, including two third-rounders, which could soften the blow of giving up a second or make for an enticing offer for both of their third-round picks.

The tough part about being moved to Vegas for Darnold would be joining a division that sent the Chiefs to the Super Bowl and the Chargers and Broncos to the playoffs. However, Darnold would inherit one of the best young receiving weapons in the NFL in Brock Bowers and an offensive line that ranked 14th by PFF in pass blocking.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have been bumbling around in the dark at the quarterback position since Ben Roethlisberger retired, playing the likes of Mason Rudolph, Kenny Pickett and Fields/Wilson last year. Posting 10-win seasons based on their defense and whatever unhappy receiver they had that week was impressive but never enough to truly make noise in a conference that has Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

Not that we can place Darnold amongst those names but he did finish 2024 as one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL. The Steelers haven’t had a top-10 offensive season since 2018.

Pittsburgh would have some work to do around Darnold, starting with their struggling offensive line and adding more receiving options than George Pickens and Pat Freiermuth.