Which parts of the Vikings' recent success are sustainable?
Vikings have won their last two games but what do the numbers say about keeping it going?
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Sunday’s victory for the Minnesota Vikings was legitimately a season saver. Per Football Outsiders, their playoff odds jumped from 8.1% to 17.1%, which actually gives them a better chance to make the postseason than the San Francisco 49ers, who they are trailing in the standings. The only teams with bigger gains in postseason chances this week were New Orleans and Green Bay.
Over the last two games, the Vikings have beaten two division opponents and produced 62 points and over 800 yards in total offense.
En route to the wins over Green Bay and Detroit, the Vikings showed improvement in four key areas: On the ground, in the trenches, on defense and at quarterback. Will it continue down the stretch? Let’s have a look…
The running game
Since the bye week, Dalvin Cook has put himself in the MVP conversation. Even in a league that only hands out that award to quarterbacks these days, leading the NFL in yards, yards per carry, touchdowns, first downs and rushes of 10 yards or more.
Without needing any more information, you know instinctively that Cook’s pace from the last two games can’t continue throughout the entire year. Over a full season, he would gain nearly 3,000 yards in that case. Here’s a look at how the last two games compare to his (terrific) career averages:
Last two games: 184.5 yards per game, 7.1 yards per carry, per 16 game pace of 2,952 yards,
Career average: 82.3 yards per game, 4.9 yards per carry, per 16 game pace of 1,316 yards
While the Vikings’ blocking has improved and Cook has made special plays that we have grown accustomed to seeing, his out-of-this-world showings against Green Bay and Detroit were well above his first five games (which were also good).
Last two games: 11 runs of 10-plus yards, 5.35 yards after contact
First five games: 14 runs of 10-plus, 3.52 yards after contact
So we can’t expect him to continue at a level that would impress Madden gamers. But what can we expect?
Keeping in mind that eight games is a small sample and any distribution of his performances is possible, if we were attempting to estimate how many dominant, average, below average and poor games he would have throughout the rest of the season, we would lean toward a couple of each.
Here’s how his yards per carry has been distributed over his 36 career games:
Of course, there are many variables mixed in. Cook is fully healthy now. He hasn’t been in every one of the games above. The quality of opponent defense varies. The quality of his offensive line of late has been better than in many of those contests.
Still, every running back has peaks and valleys. Explosive games and games in which they are shut down. That’s the nature of the beast. Here’s how Cook’s career has gone in yards per carry from a game-to-game basis.
While Cook’s explosive games and games where the opponent finds a way to contain him are going to vary, one area where he can be consistently effective is in the passing game. Last year Cook averaged 8.2 yards per target and he’s right on par with that mark this season. He has been especially valuable throughout his career when the Vikings used him in the screen game.
“With the screens, it’s always about timing,” head coach Mike Zimmer said. “If we can get the offensive linemen out on the perimeter and get them to try to get whoever the forced or the contained is, then we can get them blocked, and our backs are pretty good in space. I think that’s part of it. The quarterback has to do a good job on the screens, you know, that’s important as well. It’s been good for us. It was good for us last year and hopefully it’ll continue to be good.”
Both the ground game and screen game will be tested against Chicago. In three career games against the Bears, Cook has just 86 yards on 34 carries and 13 receptions for 54 yards.
The offensive line
After a miserable start to the season, the Vikings’ offensive line has led the way for historically good rushing performances and allowed just two sacks in the last two weeks.
Zimmer went lineman by lineman on Monday talking about their recent jumps in play.
“It’s a lot better,” Zimmer said. “Riley Reiff is playing really well right now, Garrett Bradbury, I think Dakota [Dozier’s] been playing well. I think [Ezra] Cleveland’s been doing a nice job since he’s been in there, and [Brian] O’Neill just keeps improving each and every week and year, as he’s continued his progression. They’re doing really well. Dalvin helps them, too, just as much as they help Dalvin. It’s a combination of things, I think.”
Here’s how the first six games compare in Pro Football Focus rankings for Vikings O-linemen compared to the last two weeks:
Rankings before Week 8:
Reiff (37th of 58)
Dozier (54th of 60)
Bradbury (14th of 31)
Samia (60th of 60)
O’Neill (16th of 58)
Rankings for Week 8-9:
Reiff (7th of 63)
Dozier (39th of 64)
Bradbury (7th of 35)
Cleveland (20th of 64)
O’Neill (9th of 63)
As you can see, Ezra Cleveland’s emergence has been a game-changer. It’s reasonable to surmise that his presence has helped Bradbury — who was already improving from his rookie year — take his game to a higher level. And the tackles have been downright terrific.
While the new combination up front appears to be helping, the quality of opponent plays a big role in O-line performance and over the last two weeks, the line has not faced D-lines that are playing at a high level.
Week 8-9 opponents
Packers PFF defensive rankings: 19th pass rush, 21st run defense
Lions PFF defensive rankings: 22nd pass rush, 18th run defense
If opponent is a determining factor, how does the rest of the season look? Pretty favorable after Chicago.
Upcoming opponents
Bears: 6th pass rush, 11th run defense
Cowboys: 14th, 27th
Panthers: 9th, 30th
Jaguars: 23rd, 13th
Bucs: 4th, 7th
Saints: 11th, 3rd
The problem with Chicago matching up well against Cook and the Vikings’ O-line is how badly the Vikings need to win this game. If they fall to 3-6, we will see their playoff odds plummet again, especially with a loss to a division opponent who they are trailing. If the O-line can’t hold up against its toughest test this week, it won’t matter how well they play against the lowly Jaguars.
On the other side of the coin, if they keep the Bears in check, that would be a sign that they can steamroll the bad D-lines and have a shot in the trenches against the likes of the Bucs and Saints.
The bend-don’t-break defense
In terms of points allowed and turnovers, the Vikings’ defense has seen an uptick in play. They forced four turnovers over the last two weeks after only picking up five from Weeks 1-7. But on paper, the results haven’t been a whole lot better.
Per Pro-Football Reference, the Vikings’ Expected Points Added (performance vs. situation above or below average) on defense has been -9.32. Their average over the first six games was -9.20.
In the first six games they gave up 413.6 yards per game. In the last two it’s been 410.5 yards per game.
The difference is that Matt Stafford threw the ball right into the hands of Eric Wilson and Eric Kendricks at the goal line.
Where the Vikings have been good the entire year is situationally. They rank sixth in both third down percentage and red zone.
“We’re playing better and better,” Zimmer said. “I said this to some of the defensive coaches today, ‘We might be doing our best job coaching we’ve done, and we’re still giving up 400 yards a game.’ It’s a work in progress, but I think some of these guys are getting better. As long as we play hard and play with energy, we get in the right spots for the most part, then we’ve got a chance.”
Despite some of the numbers, we can see improvement in Vikings’ players performance from the last two weeks to the early season, especially along the defensive line. Here’s where they ranked by PFF grades from the first six games vs. the last two.
Armon Watts ranks as the 17th best DT (of 100) over the last two weeks from. He was 109th (of 133) through six weeks.
Shamar Stephen: 27th vs. 59th
Jaleel Johnson 57th vs. 121st
Ifeadi Odenigbo: 36th vs. 63rd
DJ Wonnum: 67th vs. 109th
And Jalyn Holmes when given an opportunity post-Ngakoue trade is 42nd.
Also against Detroit, rookie Jeff Gladney played by far his best game, leading the team in PFF grade and allowing just 28 yards on nine targets into his coverage.
The Vikings’ upcoming opponents open the door for a chance to carry over their better player performances and the numbers will likely come along with them. They match up against Nick Foles, Andy Dalton/Garrett Gilbert, Teddy Bridgewater and either Jake Luton or Gardner Minshew before seeing Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
Every team they face outside of New Orleans and Tampa Bay has a bottom half offensive line, giving the Vikings’ D-line a chance to continue their improvement.
The efficient quarterback
One rule to follow with Kirk Cousins: Never overreact to what you just saw.
The Cousins coaster is real and Vikings fans have been riding it again this year. He opened the season leading the NFL in interceptions through six games and then has completely turned things around the last two weeks, boosting his QB rating up to a solid 97.7.
The very same thing happened last year. Through four weeks, Cousins only had an 88.6 rating and then threw 10 touchdowns and posted a 137.1 rating over the following four weeks.
When we talk about sustainable things with Cousins, one thing that persists through his career is the ups and downs. When he’s rolling, things are often favorable in terms of situations and opponents. In terms of opponent, the Packers didn’t pressure him a single time and the Packers rank 16th in PFF coverage grade. Detroit is 30th in coverage.
Even when Green Bay and Detroit did pressure Cousins, he was still able to create big plays. Over the last two games, the Vikings’ QB was under duress on just 30.6% of his drop backs and had a 109.7 rating under pressure. In the previous six games, opponents were in his face on 39.5% of dropbacks and he managed just a 73.3 rating.
The running game has put Cousins in many favorable situations. His play-action percentage and performance has skyrocketed.
Play-action the first six weeks: 25.6% of total dropbacks, 107.8 rating
Play-action the last 2 weeks: 41.7% of total drop backs, 150.5 rating
Since the Vikings rely on Dalvin Cook to provide them with good circumstances for Cousins, his play will dictate some of the quarterback’s performance. So will the opponent. The Vikings see three of the bottom seven coverage teams in coming weeks. However, Chicago ranks as the 10th best coverage team.
So when we ask whether the running game, offensive line, defense and quarterback play can all carry over for the rest of the season, the overall answer is that it’s likely the improvement continues even if there is some regression. But Chicago will be a very good test. If they fall short at Soldier Field, a lot of that progress won’t matter much toward a playoff push.
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Why did they wait to start Cleveland when samia was actively costing them games