When it comes to kickers, nobody knows nothin'
When it comes to kickers, nobody knows nothin'
The Vikings suddenly have kicking problems but solving them is anybody's guess
What in the world happened to Dan Bailey?
Over the last two weeks, the 11th best kicker in NFL history by field goal percentage suddenly looked like the Monstars took his talent. Between Weeks 13 and 14, he missed three extra points and four field goals. Some of them nearly missed the net behind the goalposts.
How unlikely was that based on his past performance? Uhh… extremely.
For starters, he only missed three kicks in a game (field goal or extra point) once before in his career — back in 2017 in a 30-10 Dallas win over the Giants. And from December 12, 2018 to November 29, 2020, Bailey made 42-of-46 field goals and 75-of-80 extra points.
He was the fourth best kicker in field goal percentage in 2019. Heading into Sunday’s game against Chicago, he’s 31st. And nobody has answers.
“It was just a strange deal,” Bailey said after the Jaguars game. “I was really consistent into the ball from a timing standpoint. I actually had a pretty good pregame, I thought, so I went into everything feeling good, feeling confident. I've been practicing really well, too. You know, I don't know that I can really put a finger on it, other than it obviously wasn't up to the standard, and it was pretty out of character for me to go out there and do that.”
Special teams coach Marwan Maalouf laughed out loud at a question from a journalist who asked this week whether having past kicking experience matters (Maalouf was not a kicker) in assisting his struggling veteran.
“So because I haven’t done it, I don’t know what it’s supposed to look like?” he said defensively.
“I can tell you that I’ve been around enough kickers, a lot of good kickers including Dan, that we’re always on the same page,” Maalouf continued. “There’s not many coaches that have kicked. There’s not many special teams coaches that have kicked in the NFL or in college.”
Side note: The Vikings brought in former kicker Nate Kaeding last year to help Bailey because, well, he’s kicked before. Kaeding hasn’t been able to consult this year with COVID protocols.
Anyway, what’s the fix then?
“There's been a couple things that have come up, so that's what we've been working on, so hopefully he’ll be ready,” Maalouf said.
Hopefully.
While the Vikings’ special teams coordinator and his long-proven kicker went “frame-by-frame” this week in search for solutions, the reality of kicking is this: Nobody can predict it. Former kickers can spot an issue with the operation. Holders and long snappers might know as well. But when there isn’t a clear problem with bad snaps or laces in, what could it be?
History shows us that it might just be the nature of the beast.
Think about it this way: Kickers are always compared to golfers so let’s go with that and use Tiger Woods as an example. Tiger got a 10 on a par 3 a few months ago. Even the human with more golfing talent than almost anyone who has ever existed on this planet did something in a match so bad that even your average weekend golfer might play 1,000 rounds and never get a 10 on a part 3. But if Tiger plays 1,000 more rounds, he’ll outplay 99.9999% of the world’s population.
Small samples are a son of a bee sting sometimes. The best three-point shooting NBA team went 0-for-27 in the Western Conference Finals a few years back. Major League pitcher Tommy John once committed three errors on the same play.
Even full seasons can be small samples. In 1998, Derek Jeter committed nine errors. Two years later, he had 24 errors in the exact same number of games. In 1997, Michael Jordan hit an impressive 37.4% of three-point shots. The next year, he made only 23.8%.
Figuring out whether something was actually wrong or it was just a kicker scoring a 10 on a par three or committing a few more errors is an impossible task. But here’s what we know: It happens to a LOT of kickers.
Just for kicks (pun intended), let’s have a look at the top 10 kickers in the NFL this year by field goal percentage.
Green Bay’s Mason Crosby has been perfect this year. That wasn’t so much the case in 2018 when he missed five field goals in a loss to Detroit. Even the bigger sample said he might be washed up. Between 2017 and 2018, Crosby made just 80.4% of his field goals. At 34 years old, it was fair to think his time was up.
Since his 2018 meltdown, Crosby has made 56-of-60 kicks (93.3%). Why? How? Who knows.
Jason Myers of Seattle also hasn’t missed this year. Jacksonville got rid of him after he went just 11-for-15 on field goals in 2017. Since then, between the Jets and Seahawks he’s been successful on 90.2%.
Younghoe Koo is 33-for-34 this year for Atlanta. The Chargers had him in 2017 but cut him after going 3-for-6.
Graham Gano is next on the list at 96.3% in 2020. Back in 2010 and 2011, he made just 72.4% and was let go by Washington. Since then, he’s made 86.8%, equal to fifth all-time kicker Robbie Gould.
In seventh place is former Viking Daniel Carlson. You folks already know that story.
Here’s a crazy one: Ryan Succop went 1-for-6 last year for Tennessee. He’s the eighth best kicker this year.
Stephen Gostkowski went 1-for-4 on opening night. Two weeks later he made six field goals against the Vikings, including a game winner.
Mike Zimmer’s history with kickers has been pretty spotty. Again, you don’t need the rundown. But based on the way long-time quality kickers have generally bounced back, maybe he’s got in right by being level-headed about Bailey.
“You have to look at history, you have to look at past performances, you have to look at the person,” Zimmer said. “Sometimes you write bad articles, does your editor come in and say, 'Hey, either write this one better or I'm going to fire you?' Or does he look at what you've done in the past? It's all the same stuff. This guy is a solid kid. What did he hit, 28 in a row from September '19 to 2020 October or something like that. I have to take all of that into consideration as well. Honestly I love the kid.”
Of course, Purple Insider doesn’t have the issue presented in Zimmer’s metaphor but you get the point.
So Bailey will kick on Sunday for the Vikings, who somehow contained themselves rather than putting him in a rocket ship headed for the sun after last week’s struggles.
But here’s the kicker (pun intended) to the story: He needs to make his kicks this week.
Will he? Who knows.
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Coller, the research for all those stats is impressive! Thanks for not throwing Bailey under the bus. You reminded us that no one is infallible and we all have a bad day. Let’s give Bailey the benefit of the doubt and hope he comes back from this in his true form.